Well, the question of whether Peter Dutton can hang on as leader despite losing an election has been resolved, because he doesn't have a seat in Parliament. Who will succeed him? It's a poisoned chalice, that's for sure.
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Next Liberal leader - 2025
- Thread starter Rotayjay
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Hastie. Taylor, Ley and Tehan are too old.
pastmyprimus
Norm Smith Medallist
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The LNP cupboard looks a little bare
What will be more interesting is who doesn’t put their hand up
Kangas1990
Debutant
Took the words right out of my mouth, if Hastie runs as I've said in other threads I think he wins, Murdoch would be frothing at the prospect of a conservative; military man and devout Christian. I think he wins if he nominates but he may be thinking 3 years ahead and not run just yet... if he doesn't it'll probably be Angus by default.
- Apr 28, 2008
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all the options are unelectable
their only shot at a quick turnaround and winning in 2028 that I can envision is gambling on the younger China hawks (i.e. Hastie) benefiting from geopolitical shifts. It likely won't work, but it is a risk they could take. Otherwise it is a long hard road of Coalition in-fighting, caretakers who don't mind opposition leader being their career pinnacle, full rebuild, etc. Maybe Angus Taylor goes into the wilderness for two years on a lesser portfolio, gets a makeover (he always looks tardy and like he just rolled out of bed), then comes back for a crack in 2028 after two unpromising years of Tehan/Ley. It's all very grim, too imbalanced towards the Senate, I could see many Australians struggling to correctly identify the actual LNP leader in the house over the next term. They've prematurely lost too many leadership prospects in recent years, the ones there now are all poor man's versions that could go the way of Dutton, losing their seat under increased spotlight.
their only shot at a quick turnaround and winning in 2028 that I can envision is gambling on the younger China hawks (i.e. Hastie) benefiting from geopolitical shifts. It likely won't work, but it is a risk they could take. Otherwise it is a long hard road of Coalition in-fighting, caretakers who don't mind opposition leader being their career pinnacle, full rebuild, etc. Maybe Angus Taylor goes into the wilderness for two years on a lesser portfolio, gets a makeover (he always looks tardy and like he just rolled out of bed), then comes back for a crack in 2028 after two unpromising years of Tehan/Ley. It's all very grim, too imbalanced towards the Senate, I could see many Australians struggling to correctly identify the actual LNP leader in the house over the next term. They've prematurely lost too many leadership prospects in recent years, the ones there now are all poor man's versions that could go the way of Dutton, losing their seat under increased spotlight.
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The Simon Crean maneuver.
GreyWind
Norm Smith Medallist
I think Taylor will get the gig initially but be so poorly received he gets ousted within a year.
Like others have mentioned I don't think Hastie will want the gig initially as the next election is an uphill battle but the next one should be an easier target. All depends on their policies and messaging of course.
Like others have mentioned I don't think Hastie will want the gig initially as the next election is an uphill battle but the next one should be an easier target. All depends on their policies and messaging of course.
- Jan 12, 2008
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Taylor's a doofus, and apparently not that popular in QLD, but he's more presentable than Dutton (who isn't?).
Tehan is like Lawrence Springborg - a relatively inoffensive, but really colourless country boy. He'll only appeal to rural/semi-rural seats, if at all, and he risks losing his own seat in 2028.
Hastie also reminds me of Springborg, albeit younger and more presentable than Taylor or Tehan - WA parochialism will probably help him, and I can see him clawing some seats back, but I can't see him ever seriously challenging Albo or Chalmers. He doesn't seem to have the force of personality, and his urban appeal is debatable. That said, I don't see him losing his seat anytime soon.
And Sussan Ley? Not happening.
So none of them are much chop, but Hastie has the most potential.
Tehan is like Lawrence Springborg - a relatively inoffensive, but really colourless country boy. He'll only appeal to rural/semi-rural seats, if at all, and he risks losing his own seat in 2028.
Hastie also reminds me of Springborg, albeit younger and more presentable than Taylor or Tehan - WA parochialism will probably help him, and I can see him clawing some seats back, but I can't see him ever seriously challenging Albo or Chalmers. He doesn't seem to have the force of personality, and his urban appeal is debatable. That said, I don't see him losing his seat anytime soon.
And Sussan Ley? Not happening.
So none of them are much chop, but Hastie has the most potential.
Not Important
never test the depth of water with both feet.
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taylor and ley.... the perfect combo....for another crushing labor victory.
The talent pool is exceptionally thin. They're in the same situation as the Vic Libs in having their safest seats held by absolute no-hopers, so that leaves their decently presentable people like David Coleman and Keith Wolahan get cleaned up these type of results.
Again, a consequence of sacrificing forever-blue seats to the teals.
It'll be cannon fodder for the time being. Hastie to make a run later in the term if things look winnable.
Again, a consequence of sacrificing forever-blue seats to the teals.
It'll be cannon fodder for the time being. Hastie to make a run later in the term if things look winnable.
This is terribly disrespectful to the late Simon Crean
dogs105
Sweet Kennels Proprietor
Position the party around the Teals, and choose any of those capable people to lead
spinynorman
Norm Smith Medallist
Whatever my thoughts on Dutton, he really was the only viable option in a shadow ministry of nobodies. It’s hard to believe they were in government three years ago and have no senior ministers left already.
If I’m Hastie, I bide my time, especially given the apparent three other options will all be in their 60s by the next election, which seems an uphill battle to win at this point. I think Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor would both be disasters, so by process of elimination I’d give it to Tehan.
If I’m Hastie, I bide my time, especially given the apparent three other options will all be in their 60s by the next election, which seems an uphill battle to win at this point. I think Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor would both be disasters, so by process of elimination I’d give it to Tehan.
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You clearly don’t know Tehan…a little story
Wannon is an ever increasing geographically electorate in redneck wonderland in the Sth West of Victoria. Tehan got parachuted into the traditionally safe Blue Ribbon Liberal seat some 15 or so years ago despite having no real connection with the place.
Unfortunately, bring in the Diocese of Ballarat and a large Catholic population the level of Clerical Child Sex Abuse was significant. At the time of the National Apology Dan was social services minister, so he hunted around for a few local victims to take up to Canberra. He came across a good mate of mine (who was a Liberal voter) and victim and sort of befriended him or I will say “pretended” to have his interests at heart.
A few months later, my mate needed some help with a matter, so he went in to see his local Member. Old mate had changed portfolios by this stage and straight up said, “that’s not my area anymore….I can’t help you”
My friend was gutted, here is his local member who has effectively used him as a prop and then just tossed him when he needed some help. This is a lifelong Lib voter.
Last week at the famous Warrnambool May Race Carnival, Dan is everywhere pressing the flesh. He runs into an acquaintance (Barrister of some note - ex politician) who is with my mate…the same mate, he completely ignores him.
He voted for the Independent candidate yesterday.
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schneebly111
Premiership Player
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Hastie.
Young, presents better, got a swing towards him, ticks the military and religion boxes.
Pull the old Jim Molan trick and use his SAS background as a way to insulate him against criticism.
Young, presents better, got a swing towards him, ticks the military and religion boxes.
Pull the old Jim Molan trick and use his SAS background as a way to insulate him against criticism.
RedStarUncle
Team Captain
If he gets in, Tim Wilson will be lining himself up to knife whoever takes over now in the lead up to the next election if/when numbers don't look good for them.
Can't see them picking someone straight off coming in even if they have prior experience in government. If he'd been there 3 or 4 terms maybe but he only started 9 years ago and was out of parliament 3 of those.
But he'll have the IPA backers lining him up as their man in the remainder of the LNP team.
RedStarUncle
Team Captain
I can imagine them going Hastie thinking that his age will be their way to appeal to Millennial and GenZ voters... being completely oblivious to his politics being everything those generations keep rejecting.
And then if he fails Tim Wilson gets in and has the same problem.
