Next years bolter

[FFB1]

Collingwood aren't going to be a bolter. They will be one of the favourites.

Only reason Collingwood are one of the favourites is because their supporters back them in week in week out - you have a look at any Pies game and if they were sitting 16th and playing 1st there would still be bugger all between them in H2H betting. Bookies arent stupid, they know they'll get backed so give em shite odds. Easy money.

Sure they are up there, and I recall at one stage last season they were flag favourites, but I think their odds are more often than not exaggerated - make the Pies favourites and their legion of fans think they are a legit chance and load up.

Waiiting to get hammered on the above analogy but like most peoples posts its an opinion..

FWIW I have no idea who I would deem a bolter next season - WCE seem like a chance but I think they need one more H&A season but watch out 2011.. mind you Kerr and Cox massive inclusions.

 

[AG]

Only reason Collingwood are one of the favourites is because their supporters back them in week in week out

Or maybe because they are a good football team. Past 3 years show the are building a good side.
Bolters are sides not expected to do well

 

[Rhayader]

The biggest myth in football today was that the Hawks were devestated by injuries in 2009. People were just expecting another dream run this is all.

Anyone who has watched the Hawks closely knows that the 2008 gameplan and success was built from strong rebounding defence. In 2009 Croad missed 22, Gilham 20, Ladson 19, Guerra 6, Dew 11, Ellis 13. This is a good portion of the core of the Hawks defensive unit. Sure it's not the best in the league, but it's pretty decent (won us a flag in 08 remember) - when it's on the park. I've watched enough football of both major codes over the years to know that the sides that play finals/win flags are generally the ones with either the fewest injuries or the fewest injuries to key players.

And just because you do not know much about a player doesn't mean he is not important to our structure or gameplan. Let me give you an example. I don't watch much of Essendon. Maybe 5 games throughout the year. Really, I thought Jobe Watson was slow, couldn't kick and was a candidate for delisting ... now he's your captain. I'm not having a crack at him, it's just that was my outsider's opinion of the bloke (at least until this year, when he seemd to get stuck in a bit more). But most Bombers fans and the people at the club all think this is a great decision - and it probably is. I mean, they are the ones who actually watch every game closely and know the players and see the potential, right?

That being the case, I can tell you as an avid Hawks fan who watches every game, injuries stuffed us last year. The defensive core was weakened. Young first year players - some of whom will be v. good footballers hopefully - filled many of the gaps. Our first choice ruckman Robbie Campbell was pushed back pretty much all year. And we really missed players like Dew and Young - kicking long quick ball into the forwards. All those quick running rebound plays - which sliced through opposition midfields in 2008 - require pinpoint accuracy. And it just wasn't there in '09 with some of the the new players (as well as guys playing out of position and with injuries because there was no one else to come in).

In fact, 2009 reminded me of 2006-7, when those plays were still in development. Fast, on-the-edge handballs though the middle until someone misses a target, turnover, goal at the other end. Very frustrating.

But in 2008 it clicked. Maybe it was a one off (not a fluke, no one ever fluked a flag - I think we won, what, 18 or 19 games, plus the shellackings of Saints and Bulldogs in the weeks before the 2008 GF?). But 2009 is certainly not a fair indicator of what the Hawks are capable of. While many of the folks on this board and elsewhere may be talking them down, I can guarantee you that the important people within your clubs are not pencilling in easy wins off a fit Hawks side in 2010...

Cheers

Paul D.

 

[The Donners]

Anyone who has watched the Hawks closely knows that the 2008 gameplan and success was built from strong rebounding defence. In 2009 Croad missed 22, Gilham 20, Ladson 19, Guerra 6, Dew 11, Ellis 13. This is a good portion of the core of the Hawks defensive unit. Sure it's not the best in the league, but it's pretty decent (won us a flag in 08 remember) - when it's on the park. I've watched enough football of both major codes over the years to know that the sides that play finals/win flags are generally the ones with either the fewest injuries or the fewest injuries to key players.

And just because you do not know much about a player doesn't mean he is not important to our structure or gameplan. Let me give you an example. I don't watch much of Essendon. Maybe 5 games throughout the year. Really, I thought Jobe Watson was slow, couldn't kick and was a candidate for delisting ... now he's your captain. I'm not having a crack at him, it's just that was my outsider's opinion of the bloke (at least until this year, when he seemd to get stuck in a bit more). But most Bombers fans and the people at the club all think this is a great decision - and it probably is. I mean, they are the ones who actually watch every game closely and know the players and see the potential, right?

That being the case, I can tell you as an avid Hawks fan who watches every game, injuries stuffed us last year. The defensive core was weakened. Young first year players - some of whom will be v. good footballers hopefully - filled many of the gaps. Our first choice ruckman Robbie Campbell was pushed back pretty much all year. And we really missed players like Dew and Young - kicking long quick ball into the forwards. All those quick running rebound plays - which sliced through opposition midfields in 2008 - require pinpoint accuracy. And it just wasn't there in '09 with some of the the new players (as well as guys playing out of position and with injuries because there was no one else to come in).

In fact, 2009 reminded me of 2006-7, when those plays were still in development. Fast, on-the-edge handballs though the middle until someone misses a target, turnover, goal at the other end. Very frustrating.

But in 2008 it clicked. Maybe it was a one off (not a fluke, no one ever fluked a flag - I think we won, what, 18 or 19 games, plus the shellackings of Saints and Bulldogs in the weeks before the 2008 GF?). But 2009 is certainly not a fair indicator of what the Hawks are capable of. While many of the folks on this board and elsewhere may be talking them down, I can guarantee you that the important people within your clubs are not pencilling in easy wins off a fit Hawks side in 2010...

Cheers

Paul D.

Cluster debunked = Hawthorn's downfall

Your coach realised your back half was average and created a tactic to negate its deficiencies. Gilham, Guerra, Ladson, Young, Ellis, Birchall... these guys are average at best and Croad is finished. As for Gibson, I don't think I've ever seen him play well except against Hawthorn.

 

[hawkstars]

Cluster debunked = Hawthorn's downfall

Your coach realised your back half was average and created a tactic to negate its deficiencies. Gilham, Guerra, Ladson, Young, Ellis, Birchall... these guys are average at best and Croad is finished. As for Gibson, I don't think I've ever seen him play well except against Hawthorn.

I think we will be ok. Enjoy 2010.

 

[Wally Carter]

Cluster debunked = Hawthorn's downfall

Agree.

As for Gibson, I don't think I've ever seen him play well except against Hawthorn.

The Gorillas have had a field day on him.

 

[ArdentEagle]

I'll back Vossy in and say that Brisbane will we the big bolter. He's rolled the dice with the trades and I have a feeling he'll get them to play at the next level and the players that need to pull their head in will do so. The younger guys will be coming along nicely and they already have plenty of established class.

I do like the look of North but Ill say 2011 for them.

 

[Coin_Toss]

Don't be fooled by West Coast, just yet. Remember when Richmond finished the season strongly last year. They were expected to be a better side this year but instead they ended up sacking their coach mid-season.

 

[AG]

Don't be fooled by West Coast, just yet. Remember when Richmond finished the season strongly last year. They were expected to be a better side this year but instead they ended up sacking their coach mid-season.

That's just Richmond though. West Coast have a premiership winning culture so they will be back challenging pretty soon.

 

[The Donners]

That's just Richmond though. West Coast have a premiership winning culture so they will be back challenging pretty soon.

That's probably what Richmond thought after 1980.

There's never any guarantees in football, even for big sides like Collingwood, Adelaide and even West Coast.

 

[smiddaz123]

Are people still parroting that all Thomas does is kick a few flashy goals here and there and that's it?

Spot the guys who get their opinions off bigfooty.....

 

[Zvim]

Yeah, i will nominate a team that finished 4th to bolt into 3rd. Do people realise the concept of a bolter?

 

[big_dunk]

Anyone else think North Melbourne will be the Bolters next year? I don't think they'll finish top 4, but will do pretty well.

 

[Slattery_20]

The team which should jump the most in terms of ladder position is Hawthorn. Should be at least top 6.
Can easily see Adelaide & WCE taking a half step forward.

Blues, Dogs and Lions to drop off.

 

[Zvim]

Anyone else think North Melbourne will be the Bolters next year? I don't think they'll finish top 4, but will do pretty well.

There are a lot of variables. How will the players adapt to Scott's gameplan, Lyon was fairly ordinary in his first year. How will we go with injuries, will the young kids step up and play at a consistent level.

We have a pretty good draw on paper if we get on a roll, but we would need a lot of things to turn out well.

I'd say if our midfielders don't suffer major injuries and two of our three tall forwards can step up and have good season with one getting 60+ goals and another 40+ then we could make the 8 but I wouldn't expect it.

 

[Slattery_20]

There are a lot of variables. How will the players adapt to Scott's gameplan, Lyon was fairly ordinary in his first year. How will we go with injuries, will the young kids step up and play at a consistent level.

We have a pretty good draw on paper if we get on a roll, but we would need a lot of things to turn out well.

I'd say if our midfielders don't suffer major injuries and two of our three tall forwards can step up and have good season with one getting 60+ goals and another 40+ then we could make the 8 but I wouldn't expect it.

....and most importantly: will he run through the depth/deadwood of your list with a hot knife. Harris & Gibson already gone, surely more to go over the next few years and rebuild a bit?

 

[paulige]

It's interesting that noone rates the Collingwood backline. Three of the top 5 in last year's Copeland Trophy were backmen - Maxwell, H. Shaw and H. O'Brien. Throw in Presti (was spoken about as an AA prospect for most of the season), and an up and coming Nathan Brown, that's a pretty solid core.

1. All he said was, the dogs and cats have better backlines. That's... well, it's pretty straight forward actually.


2. By Collingwood supporters, and only Collingwood supporters.

 

[shintemaster]

....and most importantly: will he run through the depth/deadwood of your list with a hot knife. Harris & Gibson already gone, surely more to go over the next few years and rebuild a bit?

There's not a hell of a lot left. That's been happening for the last 2-3 drafts.

 

[vonn]

WCE. Good winning culture and good blend of youth.

 

[Redeye Rambler]

North Melbourne will be next years bolter.

Many punters have tipped them for the wooden spoon - I think they are going to surprise a few and will be a finals contender.

During 2009 they were hit hard with injuries (and coach change). Most of their list are still very young and having a full preseason under a new coach. Scott will instill a playing culture of toughness at the ball that will give results.

 

[donnie5]

Im going with either West Coast or North Melbourne. West Coast because they have a great batch of young talent that will flourish with additions of Cox and Kerr being fit. West Coast also has a very good spine to work around also so if there youngsters lift another gear or two then they may surprise the competition. North Melbourne have a fantastic coach who will take them to glory one day IMO. They also have a good mixture of youth and experience which at the end of the day is always handy.

 

[donnie5]

Are people still parroting that all Thomas does is kick a few flashy goals here and there and that's it?

Spot the guys who get their opinions off bigfooty.....

just let them go, they are the experts not us. So no need to express your opinion.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Because Kerr and Cox were unfit and the youngsters grew throughout the season.

Kerr has played 11 games in each of the last two seasons. He played just a handfull of games in 2009 before his groin started to flare up and pulled both Port and the Bulldogs to bits. Even if he plays 22 games outside the square we will be a better side.

Cox and Naitanui played just one game together in 2009. Round 12 against Richmond where Cox was not at all running well.

Don't be fooled by West Coast, just yet. Remember when Richmond finished the season strongly last year. They were expected to be a better side this year but instead they ended up sacking their coach mid-season.

That has gone through my mind, the saving grace is we have proven premier players in Cox, Kerr and Glass. We have Waters to come back into the main group and press for games and dont rule out B.Jones just yet as after two years of a bad injury run i feel he will be out to prove a point.

I also still think Richmond have allot more to give and i wont judge them of just one season.

I hope we continue to blood young players in 2010, it might cost us a game or two but the rewards will be big in the following years.

 

[cradle of filth]

North Melbourne? allot would have to go right, but what if Jack Ziebell, Liam Anthony, Andrew Swallow and Lachlan Hansen all have break-out seasons? Ben Cunnington has a Joel Selwood/Cyril Rioli type first year and Daniel Wells FINALLY puts some use to his obvious talent. That would be a pretty damn good midfield. Brent Harvey, Corey Jones and David Hale all return to their best and Drew Petrie has an all-australian year at centre half-forward.

Granted, it seems very unlikely that this would all happen(particularly the Daniel Wells bit) but stranger things have happened before.

 

[Wally Carter]

Anyone else think North Melbourne will be the Bolters next year? I don't think they'll finish top 4, but will do pretty well.

North have an excellent draw, but will still need a good run with injury to make the top 8.

A key forward that can contribute 50+ goals wouldn't go astray either.

Realistically, North are still a year or two away.