NFL 2017/18 Betting

[Macpotata]

Can't say I'm surprised the Pats lost tbh. Fancied the Chiefs both straight up and with the points. Went up at least 50c from the time the market opened until kick off. I had a whopping $5 on each. I'm a sick campaigner. Anyway haven't seen a thread for this yet and I know you campaigners love to punt on everything and everything.

So, fire away lads!

 

[Sabbathen]

I'll post my 1st week plays up on Sunday

 

[iluvparis]

Betting against Jacksonville every week would seem a profitable strategy

 

[chunkylover]

Betting against Jacksonville every week would seem a profitable strategy

Just back off in the 2 weeks they are playing my colts and you'll be fine.

 

[Sabbathen]

All odds from Pinnacle at time of posting, all 1 unit.
Depending on how this goes i'll go again next week... or not hah.
NFL Week 1
LAC +3 -$2.03
CHI +6 -$1.99
JAX +5 -$2.01
SF +4.5 -$1.96
CIN -3 -$2.03
TEN -3 -$1.95
GB -3 -$1.96
DAL -4 -$2.01
LAR -4.5 -$1.98
NO +3.5 -$1.84

 

[Macpotata]

Did ok. Backed underdogs jax, Phili, ravens start and wins. Lost on bears win but won on start, lost on Indi and titans tho. Iffy about those campaigners but took em. Backed it ages ago. Once I saw luck was out knew they were gone. Small punts anyway. Lost on Zona too.

Green Bay $1.65 was a beauty.

 

[iluvparis]

Betting against Jacksonville every week would seem a profitable strategy

 

[Sabbathen]

Sunday finished up 4-3-1 for a small .96 unit profit. Surprised the San Fran and Cincinnati line ended up so far off.

 

[Angus Young]

Patriots ****ed me

 

[Sabbathen]

NFL Week 1
LAC +3 -$2.03 PUSH 0
CHI +6 -$1.99 PUSH 0
JAX +5 -$2.01 WIN +1.01
SF +4.5 -$1.96 LOSS -1
CIN -3 -$2.03 LOSS -1
TEN -3 -$1.95 LOSS -1
GB -3 -$1.96 WIN +.96
DAL -4 -$2.01 WIN +1.01
LAR -4.5 -$1.98 WIN +.98
NO +3.5 -$1.84 LOSS -1

More to come over the weekend...
NFL Week 2
HOU +5.5 $1.92

4-4-2 -0.04 units

 

[Macpotata]

$15 over 36 at $1.85 todays game. Entertainment purposes.

 

[Macpotata]

underdogs I like this week with good value are Buffalo at $3.60 and the +7.5 at $1.82, and the Vikings $3 and +5.5 at $1.92. Both are away to Carolina and Steelers.

Panthers vs Bills over 43 I think is good too. But If I like the above games more. I think Vikings will beat the Steelers Straight up actually.

Phili vs Kanas over 48 maybe. Chiefs do have good D particularly at home but with the eagles offense I think this could actually be a bit of a shootout. Should go close in any case, unless Chiefs do shut them down which they easily could. Phili also presents good value but Chiefs at Arrowhead and coming off a big away win at Gillette would make me steer clear. Unless you were betting small. Can't look past KC though if you were tipping/ had to bet decent.


In any case Bills and Vike's with the +point start is good especially the Vikings.

 

[Sabbathen]

More to come over the weekend...
NFL Week 2
HOU +5.5 $1.92 WIN +.92

5-4-2 +0.88 units

 

[Macpotata]

Tennessee vs Jax total over 42 at $1.90

 

[Sabbathen]

NFL Week 2
JAX +1 $1.96
IND +7 $1.83
CHI +7 $1.85
PIT -6 $1.94
NO +6 $1.94
PHI +5 $1.95
BUF +6.5 $2.00
LAC -3.5 $2.02
NYJ +13 $1.96
DEN +2.5 $1.95
SEA -14 $1.97
LAR -2.5 $1.88
ATL -3 $2.06
NYG -3 $1.87

 

[2nd_2_None]

FWIW - Just thought Id let you know that unibet have a promo for nfl week 2, lose by less than 6 and get a bonus bet (although not credited until Wednesday). Need to opt in though...GL

 

[Dan26]

FWIW - Just thought Id let you know that unibet have a promo for nfl week 2, lose by less than 6 and get a bonus bet (although not credited until Wednesday). Need to opt in though...GL

Just did a bit research.

37.88% of all NFL games have a margin of 6 points or less. This looks like a good value promo.

 

[Dan26]

Promo lends itself to betting on the underdogs I think.

The odds for early season NFL games (or any sport) can be a bit skewed since we don't know who the best teams are yet. The bookies are just guessing.

 

[FallingLiefs]

"Bookies just guessing"

Gold jerry

 

[Dan26]

"Bookies just guessing"

Gold jerry

To an extent, they are in early season markets.

1.) look at the odds for early season games last year

2.) Then look at the end of season ladder.

3.) Then go back to the early season games and set your own odds knowing what you know about how the season ends, and look at how your odds differ from the real odds.

Always good value with underdogs early in the season.

 

[Jugada]

They're not guessing, they're framing the markets based on the current info available just like punters framing their own markets. Im sure we would all like to skip forward 6 months and see how things played out before framing markets for anything

Even if they were guessing though so would the punter be anyway. Not sure how that equals value in the underdogs

 

[Dan26]

They're not guessing, they're framing the markets based on the current info available just like punters framing their own markets. Im sure we would all like to skip forward 6 months and see how things played out before framing markets for anything

Even if they were guessing though so would the punter be anyway. Not sure how that equals value in the underdogs

Framing the market on the current info available is guessing. It's guessing based off information, but guessing nonetheless.

The punter is guessing too, but they'e not framing the initial market. Always good value in underdogs early in the season. The worst thing that can happen to a punter is losing on a team at odds of $1.70 when they should have been at $2.30, but if you are betting on underdogs ONLY early in the season, then you will never make that mistake.

I'll give you an example:

Over the last 10 years, underdogs in Baseball in April have gone 1498-1877. While that comes out to a 44.4% win rate, the average odds in these games is $2.30, (return on investment) of +1.1% and profit of $3,710 if betting $100 on each game.

Over the last 5 years across the entire season, baseball underdogs have gone 4,672-6,608 (41.4%), which means if you bet $100 on every favorite during this stretch, you would be down almost $10,000.

There is clearly value in early season underdogs, because there is more of a chance that the bookies have framed the market incorrectly.

 

[iluvparis]

What if the $2.30 team is actually only a $3.20 chance of winning though

#twilightzone

 

[Macpotata]

over 51.0 points Green Bay@Falcons this morning is my prediction no bet though.

$1.88

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

3u GB/AF 1st Q Over 10