Analysis Nick Coffield

[pebblesofsand]

Age isn't an excuse for a player. If they are good, they will show it straight away. Maybe not in the first season, but by the second season they should be showing some serious form. Our very own Clark is prime example of this and is ready to take it up another level and be a 25 disposal player this season.

Back on Coffield discussion I get that he is young. But so are these players and they have showed a hell of a lot more from the same draft
Clark
Naughton
Rayner
Brayshaw
Stephenson
Fogarty
Richards
Higgins
Liam Ryan
Taylor (GWS) defender
McCartin
Warpol
Miers

Coffield on the other hand will struggle to be best 22 as it stands with a full strength list.

Yes - the development of all players is always absolutely linear.

Trade or delist!!

PS - Cam Rayner, a Pick 1 who averaged less than 10 possessions a game last year, and Darcy Fogarty are not great examples to use to can Coff's rate of development rate.

 

[Roddy Grant]

Coff is in his third year. Some folk need to calm down a bit on him.

Not like his impact will be a major factor in our overall success this year.

From what I have seen so far he looks like he will be a good player for us.

 

[Joffaboy]

The picks haven't played, but they will eventually. So if we're evaluating the trade then the two players can't be directly compared, as they weren't valued the same. The expectations for Hill are naturally a lot higher than those for Acres.

Of course they can be compared and the picks may never play.
Acres had played 6 seasons, Hill 8. A poster waxed lyrical about Acres on a wing.
Hill plays on a wing, so of course you can compare.

Further to this pick 10 and 58 was traded out so they aren't even at Freo.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Personally i disagree with this. I think we gave him the right amount of time on our list and pulled the trigger at an appropriate time.

It took BJ Goddard 4 years to come good and i know he isn't the most popular player on our list but it took 5 years for Seb Ross to break out.

I don't believe Acres had much more value if any more at all had we traded him at three years as compared to 6. However i think there would have been a hell of a lot more risk for us losing out on a great player if we traded him after 3 years instead of 6.

I have to admit to thinking that perhaps we should have gotten rid of Ross. ( Just like the Hawks got rid of favourite son Kennedy ).
Only thing that saved him was that we had so many past champions and drafted spuds leaving , we had no need to get rid of anyone.

Games / Disposals Per game.
2012 Ross 1 /8 Dunstan NA
2013 Ross 13/15 Dunstan NA
2014 Ross 13/16 Dunstan 16/19
2015 Ross 10/18 Dunstan 19/17
At this point i was thinking he was not worth persevering with , and Dunstan would be great after his 2nd year blues.
2016: Ross 22/26 Dunstan 18/17
2017: Ross 22/30 Dunstan 16/22
2018 : Ross 21/30 Dunstan 16/22
2019 : Ross 22/26 Dunstan 18/22

 

[CaptainRisky]

I cant even believe some are worried about Coff , i guess you doubters never saw the three games before he was injured last year . I can give you a list of about 12 others id be worried about before Coff , FFS the kid is only 20

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I cant even believe some are worried about Coff , i guess you doubters never saw the three games before he was injured last year . I can give you a list of about 12 others id be worried about before Coff , FFS the kid is only 20

I'm actually more concerned about Long.
Yes he played good in the backline of a practice game , but he's still got a long way to cement a best 22 position.
He was drafted a year before Coffield, and was a mature player , 2 years older than Coffield.

To me he has failed in the role he was drafted for , which is evident by the club trading in and drafting Kent, Butler, Parker and last year Young.
The club is trying to move him to defence , to salvage his career.

 

[Strahany]

I’m bullish on Coffield. Height, pace off the mark, good spatial awareness, and a great kick of the football are quite the combination of attributes. People with more inside knowledge than me mentioned (IIRC) that Cho kept forcing Coffield and others to conform to roles; in Nick’s case, it was to be a more dour, defensive player.

Whilst I appreciate the need to play defensively, I think forcing an attacking-minded player to play a role that they’re not used to, and ultimately doesn’t match their attributes. Look at Sam Fisher, for example; he was an elite reader of the football and an excellent intercept mark, but could struggle in a shutdown role because he couldn’t use his weapons (fully). Might as well have played Riewoldt has a lockdown defender.

A backline that has Wilkie, Howard, and Carlisle, with the defensiveness of Geary and even Roberton’s defensive intelligence will all allow for more attacking play from Long/Clark/Coffield.

In addition, whilst I can not verify this, it seemed like Coff lacked confidence, at times. Imagine back to your first couple years in a professional field - even if you were comfortable coming out of your uni/placements/apprenticeships, you can still be thrusted into a highly uncomfortable environment and feel like you know nothing. Add the difficulties of being forced to play an “unnatural game” due to Cho’s direction, and the pressures of public scrutiny, and it highly exacerbates it. I feel that Coffield’s hot patch of form, prior to his shoulder injury, started to give him confidence that he can still play like he did at junior level, and with the same quality.

 

[Sheepey]

Of course they can be compared and the picks may never play.
Acres had played 6 seasons, Hill 8. A poster waxed lyrical about Acres on a wing.
Hill plays on a wing, so of course you can compare.

Further to this pick 10 and 58 was traded out so they aren't even at Freo.

The picks may never play, but that's an extreme outcome on one end of the scale. The other extreme is that they become 300 game hall of famers. Usually the average is somewhere in the middle, and we won't know what that will be yet for some time. We were glady talking about how we received Long, Battle and Clark effectively for O'Meara, so the principle is the same.

The crux of it comes down to the fact that while they play in the same position, they are not judged at the same level in terms of list management and strategy.

 

[PostmanBish]

I'm expecting him to be more of a Sam Fisher level but with his head screwed on better, rather than the next BJ.

I don't think ~230 games, an All-Australian nod, two Trevor Barker Awards, two other top-3 finishes and dedicated service to some good teams, would be a bad outcome at all. If he gave us another Chips' worth of output, I'd not be disappointed.

 

[hayes]

Im not sure about stats or anything but after watching Coffield in a hostile Adelaide environment be one of our most composed and skillful players, I was pretty much sold there. He’ll be fine when his time comes.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Im not sure about stats or anything but after watching Coffield in a hostile Adelaide environment be one of our most composed and skillful players, I was pretty much sold there. He’ll be fine when his time comes.

My biggest fear is always that the player just can't get the ball.
Brody Murdoch was an example of that, just couldn't get it enough despite being pretty good with ball in hand.
In my mind if they aren't getting it 15 times a game , they aren't getting enough of it. ( with a few roles where i'm more forgiving ).

Nick has had his bad games, but he's been the right side of 15 enough, and topped 20 a couple. He won't get worse at getting the ball.
Coffield had 10 contested possessions against the Cats last year.

( 18 disposals , 14 kicks against the Crows ).

 

[AirWinmar]

I cant even believe some are worried about Coff , i guess you doubters never saw the three games before he was injured last year . I can give you a list of about 12 others id be worried about before Coff , FFS the kid is only 20

Yes, Im all for discussion but to have a thread about Coff seems a bit over the top. In his first year, people were saying he looked like a hundred gamer. He struggled at the start of last year, but not a disaster and finished playing very good footy. The guys a talent and has all the attributes to become a gun. Was a little bit jittery in the 1st preseason, like many others but that asides was pretty good.
Breakout year this year for him, bookmark it

 

[CaptainRisky]

Yes, Im all for discussion but to have a thread about Coff seems a bit over the top. In his first year, people were saying he looked like a hundred gamer. He struggled at the start of last year, but not a disaster and finished playing very good footy. The guys a talent and has all the attributes to become a gun. Was a little bit jittery in the 1st preseason, like many others but that asides was pretty good.
Breakout year this year for him, bookmark it

Thanks Johnny

 

[Verdun]

Yes, Im all for discussion but to have a thread about Coff seems a bit over the top. In his first year, people were saying he looked like a hundred gamer. He struggled at the start of last year, but not a disaster and finished playing very good footy. The guys a talent and has all the attributes to become a gun. Was a little bit jittery in the 1st preseason, like many others but that asides was pretty good.
Breakout year this year for him, bookmark it

Started the thread as I believe there are to many posters out there who are over the top in criticizing Coff - especially after last weeks game against the Hawks.

Coff has huge upside and believe he will bring positive stuff to the Saints.

The recruitment that we have done with Hill, Ryder, Butler, Howard and Jones gives the young blokes on our list (and we have a heap of them!) a chance to develop and play with proven players - Coffield is the example of this.

 

[AirWinmar]

Started the thread as I believe there are to many posters out there who are over the top in criticizing Coff - especially after last weeks game against the Hawks.

Coff has huge upside and believe he will bring positive stuff to the Saints.

The recruitment that we have done with Hill, Ryder, Butler, Howard and Jones gives the young blokes on our list (and we have a heap of them!) a chance to develop and play with proven players - Coffield is the example of this.

Fair enough mate, completely agree with you and its probably better to have a constructive discussion in a separate thread.

Im pretty surprised that he has got canned so much after last weeks game.

For me his speed, height, evasive skills and disposal are a unique set of attributes that we should be able to use to develop into a special player. He does know how to find the ball as well.

So as with many of our young guns I am waiting eagerly for the season to start and see them play.

 

[DarkSaint]

Just to be clear i'm not writing him off as a dud, far from it. He has got some tools in his kit bag that we severely lack and his physical attributes are there to match his high value investment.

I'm just not 100% sold on him yet and i have a few ?? on a couple of the things that he does which makes me question whether he will be an elite player (40 man squad AA) which if you use a top 10 pick on they need to be at that level imo of course. Intensity is one ? that i have on him when the ball is near his area as so far for my liking has gone to ground and in explosive enough (he is quick but i haven't seen him explode over the first 5-10 metres). The other ? i have is on his confidence similar to Billing's. Both are in the top 5 best kicks at the club, however for some reason lack the confidence of other players to really use their main weapon. These 2 guys need to be having the confidence to use game braking kicks but for some reason tend to play it safe (talking more about Billings here).

Would love nothing more than to have egg on my face!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Just to be clear i'm not writing him off as a dud, far from it. He has got some tools in his kit bag that we severely lack and his physical attributes are there to match his high value investment.

I'm just not 100% sold on him yet and i have a few ?? on a couple of the things that he does which makes me question whether he will be an elite player (40 man squad AA) which if you use a top 10 pick on they need to be at that level imo of course. Intensity is one ? that i have on him when the ball is near his area as so far for my liking has gone to ground and in explosive enough (he is quick but i haven't seen him explode over the first 5-10 metres). The other ? i have is on his confidence similar to Billing's. Both are in the top 5 best kicks at the club, however for some reason lack the confidence of other players to really use their main weapon. These 2 guys need to be having the confidence to use game braking kicks but for some reason tend to play it safe (talking more about Billings here).

Would love nothing more than to have egg on my face!

I once went through an exercise where i looked at the position of players in the draft , how many were elite , how many washed out , and how many were OK.

The probability ( as expected ) of getting an absolute champion increased earlier in the draft.
However the probability was still pretty low.
However the probability of a top ten draft pick completely washing out was far far less.

I think its simplistic to say a top 10 draft pick should be AA though, otherwise there would be around 100AA players at any time.
On average its only going to be 4 per draft .

Below is a list of 40 players drafted between 2001 and now.
Over that period there are 168 top ten draft picks who did not make the list.

12/40 Top ten draft picks from 2005 - 2016.
7 /40 taken between picks 11 and 20 in their draft.
4/40 taken between picks 21 and 30 without f/s.
2/40 taken between picks 31 and 40 without f/s
2/40 taken between picks 41 and 50
3/40 taken between picks 51 and 60
1 taken at pick 61
5/40 taken using zones, special picks, f/s .
3/40 from the rookie draft
1 from the pre-season draft

8 were drafted 2008 or earlier.
12 of the squad were drafted 2009 or 2010.
only 4 were drafted 2015 or after.

Daniel Talia - Pick13 2009
Harris Andrews - Pick 61 2014
Charlie Cameron - Rookie Draft
Hugh McCluggage - Pick 3 2016
Lachie Neale - Pick 58 2011
Dayne Zorko - Zone selection 2012
Patrick Cripps - Pick 13 2013.
Brody Grundy -Pick 18 2012.
Scott Pendlebury - Pick 5 2005
Adam Trelour - Underage selection 2010
Nathan Fyfe - Pick 20 2009
Michael Walters - Pick 53 2008
Garry Ablett - Pick 40 2001 ( F/S )
Mark Bliclavs - Rookie Draft.
Patrick Dangerfield - Pick 10 2007
Tom Hawkins -Pick 41 2006 ( F/S)
Tim Kelly - Pick 24 2017
Tom Stewart - Pick 40 2016
Jeremy Cameron - Underage recruit 2010
Nick Haynes - Pick 7 2011.
James Sicily - Pick 56 2013
Max Gawn - Pick 34 2009
Ben Brown - Pick 47 2013
Ben Cunnington - pick 5 2009
Travis Boak - pick 5 2006
Bachar Houli -Pick 42 2006
Dylan Grimes - Pre-season draft 2010
Dustin Martin -Pick 3 2009
Dion Prestia - Pick 9 2010
Dane Rampe - Rookie Draft 2013
Jack Darling - Pick 26 2010
Andrew Gaff - Pick 4 2010
Shannon Hurn - Pick 13 2005
Jeremy McGovern - Rookie Draft 2011
Brad Sheppard - Pick 7 2009
Luke Shuey - Pick 18 2008
Elliot Yeo - Pick 30 2011
Marcus Bontempelli Pick 4 2013
Josh Dunkley Pick 25 2015.
Jack Mackrae Pick 6 2012

 

[DarkSaint]

I once went through an exercise where i looked at the position of players in the draft , how many were elite , how many washed out , and how many were OK.

The probability ( as expected ) of getting an absolute champion increased earlier in the draft.
However the probability was still pretty low.
However the probability of a top ten draft pick completely washing out was far far less.

I think its simplistic to say a top 10 draft pick should be AA though, otherwise there would be around 100AA players at any time.
On average its only going to be 4 per draft .

Below is a list of 40 players drafted between 2001 and now.
Over that period there are 168 top ten draft picks who did not make the list.

12/40 Top ten draft picks from 2005 - 2016.
7 /40 taken between picks 11 and 20 in their draft.
4/40 taken between picks 21 and 30 without f/s.
2/40 taken between picks 31 and 40 without f/s
2/40 taken between picks 41 and 50
3/40 taken between picks 51 and 60
1 taken at pick 61
5/40 taken using zones, special picks, f/s .
3/40 from the rookie draft
1 from the pre-season draft

8 were drafted 2008 or earlier.
12 of the squad were drafted 2009 or 2010.
only 4 were drafted 2015 or after.

Daniel Talia - Pick13 2009
Harris Andrews - Pick 61 2014
Charlie Cameron - Rookie Draft
Hugh McCluggage - Pick 3 2016
Lachie Neale - Pick 58 2011
Dayne Zorko - Zone selection 2012
Patrick Cripps - Pick 13 2013.
Brody Grundy -Pick 18 2012.
Scott Pendlebury - Pick 5 2005
Adam Trelour - Underage selection 2010
Nathan Fyfe - Pick 20 2009
Michael Walters - Pick 53 2008
Garry Ablett - Pick 40 2001 ( F/S )
Mark Bliclavs - Rookie Draft.
Patrick Dangerfield - Pick 10 2007
Tom Hawkins -Pick 41 2006 ( F/S)
Tim Kelly - Pick 24 2017
Tom Stewart - Pick 40 2016
Jeremy Cameron - Underage recruit 2010
Nick Haynes - Pick 7 2011.
James Sicily - Pick 56 2013
Max Gawn - Pick 34 2009
Ben Brown - Pick 47 2013
Ben Cunnington - pick 5 2009
Travis Boak - pick 5 2006
Bachar Houli -Pick 42 2006
Dylan Grimes - Pre-season draft 2010
Dustin Martin -Pick 3 2009
Dion Prestia - Pick 9 2010
Dane Rampe - Rookie Draft 2013
Jack Darling - Pick 26 2010
Andrew Gaff - Pick 4 2010
Shannon Hurn - Pick 13 2005
Jeremy McGovern - Rookie Draft 2011
Brad Sheppard - Pick 7 2009
Luke Shuey - Pick 18 2008
Elliot Yeo - Pick 30 2011
Marcus Bontempelli Pick 4 2013
Josh Dunkley Pick 25 2015.
Jack Mackrae Pick 6 2012

Good analysis.

Over the years the AA squads have become a bit of a joke with household names getting token selection over actually players that deserved to be in the line up. The amount of pure mids that have been placed on the half back line or the forward flank to fit in certain names has been laughable. The 40 man squad would be imo better guide rather than the actual 22 select because it has always been biased.