Coach NMFC Senior Coach - David Noble

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Only Forwards

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2008
21,461
54,857
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Depends on Cunners really.
Of course. He clearly loves the club and the club regard him about as highly as he could be regarded.

I would like to find a mutually beneficial pathway where we create a plan around playing and resting him to get the absolute longest tenure we can out of him while managing his health appropriately for him to not be ground to a pulp through the twilight of his career.
 

SimpkinByTheDockOfTheBay

Seasoned Football Analyst
Aug 21, 2018
21,292
52,000
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Of course. He clearly loves the club and the club regard him about as highly as he could be regarded.

I would like to find a mutually beneficial pathway where we create a plan around playing and resting him to get the absolute longest tenure we can out of him while managing his health appropriately for him to not be ground to a pulp through the twilight of his career.
I reckon Cunners only plays one way - grinding himself and others to pulp.
 

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Luke72

Premium Platinum
Aug 21, 2012
5,325
11,798
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Mate, just an observation on the established and very, very real fact that's not a joke at all that anyone who gets champed by someone else is receiving the most grievous insult.
I don’t know why this has become a thing. It was never an outright insult and only occasionally used in that way by some smart arse. It’s like knackers, which was a bit of a laugh especially if someone’s name slipped your mind.

I heard a radio guy (Sam Edmond I think) get his nose out of joint when, what I assume was an older caller, rang in and said “I love your show Champ”. It was a genuine compliment and he misread it and reacted poorly. Young folks these days!
 

ferball

Premium Platinum
Jul 24, 2015
27,758
52,891
AFL Club
North Melbourne
The ladder isn't created equal every year.

in 2019 Sydney finished 15th with 8 wins and a % of 97.7
in 2018 they'd have finished above the 13th placed side on the same wins and %

FWIW in 2018 Brisbane finished 15th on 5 wins, Our win/loss from this year would have put us above 17th in 2018.

So yeah there is wild variation year to year and what good and bad look like.

My point is more around the setting of expectations. In my head where we are at breaks down a bit like this:

UP
2014-2016 We were going all out with what we had to see if we could get the cards to fall our way and manufacturing a flag we had little right to. Sometimes it happens, the team that just happens to be the right place right time wins one.

Down
End 2016 - end of 2020/start of 2021 this would be the downward trend. It does include not 1 but 2 dead cat bounces. the first in 2018 when we bounced knowing we had Thomas in the draft. The second was the end of 2019 where cut Scott loose and the resulting release of pressure saw Shaw appointed. The Dogs on Good Friday was the lowest ebb, not specifically the turning point but in terms of downs, that one is massive, it was a test to Noble's mettle and I think from that point we began

Recovery
Following that lowest ebb beyond the bye we clearly refocused and it really looks from the outside that we had a look in the mirror and needed to decide what we stood for. Most games (clearly not all) there were elements of improvement. It is actually funny how the narrative changed, we went rom being heralded as the worst team since Fitzroy to being the "Best Spoon side".

So here we are having been up and not good enough to down and pathetic to looking forwards with about as much hope or a core group as I have had.

How we go in 2022, I have little expectation on, bottom 4 is what it is, above it is better, I would prefer no 100 point losses I have had enough of that sh*t.

I am excited for what next year brings, because at the minimum it should be growth. I am impressed by the current drive to get fitter being displayed by so many. I want to believe that they, as a collective are pushing each other to go as far as they possibly can. Because if we have a culture of that the wins are in the post its just a bit fuzzy as to when they'll arrive.
Yeah i agree about the ladder. Its unpredictable from year to year. We finished 9th in 2018 with results that would have seen us 7th in the year before and the year after.

I don't think we can make the claims about 2018/19 being a dead cat bounce as such. The reason we improved in 2018 was that Jed Anderson had a break out season and so did Maj while Jack played a great season up forward. In fact his kicking in a couple of games actually cost us a spot in the finals. Maybe that seems harsh but he missed shots on goal that cost us games (and he was the captain.) I reckon 2019 would have been very different without Maj being unable to play as well. I think we would have been closer to the form we saw with Shaw that season under Scott but for the whole year. But its hard to tell cos younger guys like BMac, Larkey and Zurhaar also came good in that period and may not have got a shot at it under Scott.

But...

I don't think we'd be in as a good a position as we are now tho if all that had happened, paradoxical as that sounds given we just got the spoon. We would probably have played finals over the last few years at least once but not really broke into the top four. We would have still been drifting along I reckon. Where we are now we seem to have plans that are very clear and we aren't deviating from them. We have real direction to our system.

So given all that our actual ladder position isn't something I'm concerned with this year. I think we have very similar attitudes to that actually.

What I want to see (FWIW) is a year that plays out like 2021, where our second half of the season is big improvement on the first half, but this time instead of that being due to players getting on the park I want it to be due to the team developing real cohesion. I want to see signs of the bolded bit in your post as well. In fact I want that to stand out by the end of the season.

Before the bye we lost 5 of our first six games by more than 7 goals, much more in a couple of cases and we lost games by ten and twenty goals before the bye as well. After the bye we lost one game by that much (7+ goal) - the last one against the Crows in Adelaide. It was the only game we lost by more than five goals post bye. So that sort of change and improvement over the season is what I'm looking for again.

8 wins would be great, just because its twice what we had this year and will be a lot more enjoyable a season, but who knows how all that will pan out. If we play more games against bottom sides cos of the draw then we could win more than we expect just because we seem to be improving and there are some sides who look like they are going backwards. We could end up with a better season than we anticipate because of that but if it doesn't come in a way that sends us into 2023 with real momentum then its meaningless.

Ideally we play well on Good Friday, most of our wins come in the last third of the year and some of those wins come against top 8 (even top 4) sides on the back of the team developing.

That will be a successful 2022 i reckon.
 

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Only Forwards

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2008
21,461
54,857
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Yeah i agree about the ladder. Its unpredictable from year to year. We finished 9th in 2018 with results that would have seen us 7th in the year before and the year after.
Yeah year on year analysis of ladder position is difficult due to about a milliomn variables.

I don't think we can make the claims about 2018/19 being a dead cat bounce as such. The reason we improved in 2018 was that Jed Anderson had a break out season and so did Maj while Jack played a great season up forward. In fact his kicking in a couple of games actually cost us a spot in the finals. Maybe that seems harsh but he missed shots on goal that cost us games (and he was the captain.) I reckon 2019 would have been very different without Maj being unable to play as well. I think we would have been closer to the form we saw with Shaw that season under Scott but for the whole year. But its hard to tell cos younger guys like BMac, Larkey and Zurhaar also came good in that period and may not have got a shot at it under Scott.
Alright so you made me go and do some looking, to see what a trend line for wins would look like.

Starting in 2015 through to the last game we played. To get a trend line for our overall form I scored like this:

+1 for a win
- 1 for a loss
0 for a draw

The graph is the trend of the cumlative score. So in terms of dead cat bounce it looks more like dead cat plateau.

1636172698574.png


The green is the run at the start of 2016.
The red is 2018.

The blue is the short run in the middle of this year where we won a few games.

But...

I don't think we'd be in as a good a position as we are now tho if all that had happened, paradoxical as that sounds given we just got the spoon. We would probably have played finals over the last few years at least once but not really broke into the top four. We would have still been drifting along I reckon. Where we are now we seem to have plans that are very clear and we aren't deviating from them. We have real direction to our system.
What I think that the dip and then re dip has done is created a situation where we have smoothed out the gap that was in the list. THere appears to be this reoccuring trap we get ourselves into. We have some sort of clean out, dip not hard enough and not long enough, top up and have a crack only to be not good enough. but we create a hole in the list doing this. Happened under Laidley, happened under Scott. I think we have put together a more solid top end core than we have previously, which in part is attributable to having been done and then not really up again since 2017.

So given all that our actual ladder position isn't something I'm concerned with this year. I think we have very similar attitudes to that actually.
I think we are pretty much on the same page. going back to the trend analysis, for 2022 I would be happy for us to largely pleatau through the season. We simply are not ready to challenge. so lets let kids build.

Ladder position to me is largely irrelevant for 22.

I want to see a few things:
- an overall fitter side where we are in games for a lot longer with large parts of the game where we win playing the ball our way, the Noble method.
- limited big losses and no triple figure losses. none.
- a game where we win from no where, I want to see west coast mkii.
- more physicality added back in during some games. I figure there is a trade off, oyu either run your guts out or smash blokes, but doing both is unsustainable at the moment. With some improved fitness I want to see us smashing some blokes and running over the top of them.

Wins are important as they are the true measure of improvement, but they are not the only one.
 

Shinboner1

Premiership Player
Aug 13, 2020
4,363
7,897
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Cunners seems like the kind of guy who'll retire when he's stops enjoying footy before his body starts to give out.
The draw of the farm life is strong with him and he wants to do a lot more with his life outside of football.
Could end up coming a bit earlier than we all think.
 

Bugsy Malone

Senior List
Jul 10, 2017
241
737
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Cunners seems like the kind of guy who'll retire when he's stops enjoying footy before his body starts to give out.
The draw of the farm life is strong with him and he wants to do a lot more with his life outside of football.
Could end up coming a bit earlier than we all think.
I hope not because the forward line is made for him, especially with the midfield we are assembling. I think it will be hard for Cunners to hang them up with the young talent we have and he deserves to cash in and extend he's career in a forward pocket.
 

LB2Snake

Premium Platinum
Aug 16, 2009
7,903
14,142
North Caulfield
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I don’t know why this has become a thing. It was never an outright insult and only occasionally used in that way by some smart arse. It’s like knackers, which was a bit of a laugh especially if someone’s name slipped your mind.

I heard a radio guy (Sam Edmond I think) get his nose out of joint when, what I assume was an older caller, rang in and said “I love your show Champ”. It was a genuine compliment and he misread it and reacted poorly. Young folks these days!
First I’d heard it was an insult was on Mr Inbetween, in jail.
 

sutcliffe's hotel

Premium Platinum
Oct 30, 2005
3,159
6,219
Brisbanistan
AFL Club
North Melbourne
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