List Mgmt. No flag winning team, has played together again (?)

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smurfin

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2016
1,890
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Central Victoria
AFL Club
Richmond
The fact that we can't consider Stack, CCJ or Soldo for a while, didn't trade out or retire a premiership player, along with the fact that we only drafted/traded for a couple of project rucks & MRJ actually gives this a decent possibility of happening.
Caddy, Ross, Aarts the most likely to displace a 2020 premiership player at this stage?

Or did Caddy playin the Grand Final? fu**, this year has been a blur.
 

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Meteoric Rise

Club Legend
Feb 4, 2008
2,145
6,075
Melbourne
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Richmond
The fact that we can't consider Stack, CCJ or Soldo for a while, didn't trade out or retire a premiership player, along with the fact that we only drafted/traded for a couple of project rucks & MRJ actually gives this a decent possibility of happening.
Caddy, Ross, Aarts the most likely to displace a 2020 premiership player at this stage?

Or did Caddy playin the Grand Final? fu**, this year has been a blur.
Has anyone tried to calculate the odds of this happening?

Let me give it a crack here. 😁



Obviously all 2020 Premiership players retained makes it possible. But how many times have we hit round one with no injury to a best 22 player?

Then there is the chance someone kicks the door down from outside the team.

Then funerals, new babies, mental health issues, club imposed bans….

On a thread on the main board in looking at all the so called dynasty teams we can see Premiership teams tend to change by an average of approximately two players per year that passes.

2017 GF to 2018 rd 1 changes were:

in Conca Short C Ellis Bolton

out Houligan Broad(suspended over decolletagegate) Prestia Rioli(serious injury sustained in GF)

So we were down two already after the GF and left another two in the stands while our kids feasted on the Blues.


2018 PF to rd 1 2019

in
Lynch Weller Balta Butler

out Conca Castagna Grigg Caddy

Lynch in and Conca out more or less locked in after the trade period. The other three were injuries from memory.


2019 GF to 2020 rd 1

in
Stack Graham

out B Ellis Houli

So Ellis out was locked in after trade period.


So what we saw was in:

2018 - 2 changes not compulsorily carried over from previous season

2019 - 3 changes not compulsorily carried over from the previous season

2020 - 1 change not compulsorily carried over from the previous season.

This year we don’t carry any compulsory changes. The average amount of changes indicated in this situation is two. It varied to one below the average once in 3 seasons. So it is possibly a 2 to 1 chance to have as few changes as one. And then there must be a similar probability of the changes varying by a further one to zero.

So this looks about an 8 to 1 chance to me based on events in the previous three seasons and the differing carryover circumstances this season.

However, as has been pointed out, there are some other factors here where 2 of the most likely replacement players, Stack and Coleman-Jones are suspended so won’t be inserted into the team. This may significantly reduce the odds of a player from outside the team forcing their way into the best 22 for round 1, given two of the more likely candidates to do so will be out of action.

So I am going to estimate the probability of the same team taking the field round 1 as what won the GF at approximately 11%.

After that, you are probably on your own as far as what the chances of getting the same team back together would be if they don’t figure in rd 1.

What would it take for the Grand Final team not to take the field intact in rd 1, but then somehow come together in some later round? That gets really difficult to achieve and is an even tougher proposition for which to calculate a probability….

It would require all 22 Grand Final players to be available simultaneously, AND for that same 22 to be considered the best available by the selectors. Take the second part first. I would estimate the best 22 would be on average 1-2 players different to the GF 22 during each round of the season. So you would need that say 1-2 players who have worked their way into the best 22 to be unavailable and this to coincide with those they have displaced being available AND being considered the best alternatives AND none of the other 20-21 2020 Premiership players being unavailable. You get the picture, we need a lot of things to coincide, beyond round 1, when there is a much stronger chance that the 2020 Premiership 22 would be considered the best 22.

So I would say our 11% chance of seeing it in round one will exponentially decay as each round passes. Such that the overall probability of the same team ever taking the field again might be only very slightly higher than probability of it taking the field in round 1.

I am going to take a stab at saying the probability of the 2020 Premiership field ever taking the field together again would be barely above 11% tops. It could be substantially below that if there is an obvious shift in the best 22 pre season, as I have not even accounted fully for that possibility, given it did not seem to occur in the 3 previous seasons. If the same team has not taken the field after a few rounds into 2021, I doubt there is any significant possibility of it occurring.

Overall, all things considered, I think we are looking at a sub 10% chance. there are reasons it has never occurred before…but we are in there with a fighting chance. 😁
 
Last edited:

Rimmer

Club Legend
May 7, 2008
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Melbourne
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Richmond
Depends who is fit and in form at the right time of the year ... oh, and winning what would be our third premiership in a row is also a significant consideration.

It is possible, it was not even possible in 2019 because of Rance's injury and it was not possible in 2020 because Ellis went to Gold Coast.
 

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