Oppo Camp Non-Essendon Football Thread XIV

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Apr 1, 2008
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Is there a more boringly predictable and one sided match up than Adelaide against Gold Coast?

If you were a Suns supporter you’d barely feel like turning up to a game against the Crows.

Every year, it’s a 15 goal rout.
Correct me if I'm wrong, someone, anyone, but I think Adelaide/Gold Coast is the last matchup standing where GC/GWS is yet to win.

A nice symmetry to Port being first to lose to both I suppose?
 
How is Brodie Dale playing VFL? Clearly AFL standard. Odd. Wallis also playing VFL. Spud.
Bailey Dale has to be one of the more overrated commodities of recent years. Has never kicked 20 goals in a year and has never averaged 20 disposals a game. A tweener between forward and midfield if I ever saw one.
 
It's just that he does a bunch of things that look good, but he doesn't consistently kick bags of goals nor does he get a lot of the ball.

EDIT: Only had the ball 20+ times on 6 occassions, only kicked multiple goals 7 times in his 43 games.
 
Apr 11, 2002
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Iggles, Georgia.
Doubt it.

Playing at the MCG and losing their best midfielder within the first three minutes of the game.

if they do then it will be an amazing effort

Going to be a few questions asked after that - knee strapped to the hilt, strange warm up exercises pre game, does knee almost straight away.
 

BrunoV

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May 5, 2009
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No. No it isn't. I'm pretty sure Carlton are not all of a sudden successful now.


It's called a dead cat bounce and it doesn't last. 'Okay boys just go out there and have fun' isn't a sustainable game plan if it's one at all.


That was a superfluous someone who was found to be doing nothing but obfuscating the message being removed from the group iirc. Not a change in the gameplan per se.


"Dead cat bounce" is not some magical phenomenon that occurs in and of itself, it's also a reference to what usually happens when a side wins first up under the new coach. It's a big picture description of a relatively common outcome that doesn't seem to have any explanation.

You've got the Kangaroos on 4 wins from 6 games with a percentage of 128 and wins against Richmond and Collingwood.

Carlton is now 3 from 5 with a percentage of 104.4 having not lost a game by more than a kick and having won two interstate games.

We're a long way beyond the emotion-charged, arse-covering that is associated with "dead cat bounce" that is also usually followed by a side getting flogged for the rest of the season (with 1 more win thrown in for good measure).

It's rare that you get sides which are as under-performing as North and Carlton changing coaches as early as happened this year. It gives us the insight into a change of plans and the impact that has on the players.

Long-term sustainability is something for sides to worry about when they are close enough to contention for it to matter. Then again, Sydney doesn't really bother and will miss finals for only the second time in about 20 years (primarily because it has been in the midst of massive rebuild). There is nothing I've seen from Brisbane which indicates that they're trying anything special or complicated tactically which is also why they've been opened up badly in some losses.

There is also no reason to assume that Carlton or North will be static and that plans will not evolve over time, and at the point at which they have a chance of being meaningful.

No doubt that high end defensive systems, for example, need to move to something more tactical than just pressure and intensity, so that they become Carkson-proof, if that is possible, but it's not a relevant factor for sides who are 1 and 8-10. Surely that's putting the cart before the horse, isn't it?

I'd worry about the strength of a defensive system or predictable ball movement when it's the failing of those factors which is causing losses. You need a side playing intense/confident/purposeful footy before you have any hope of being able to implement those plans. St Kilda is another example, though it has gotten back to basics this year (and would probably be even better if it wasn't for a horror run to key players that they as much as any side could not afford).

My understanding is that Bolton didn't get sacked because of the wins and losses as much as he got sacked because he was doing the players' heads in with over-analysis. The impact of that stuff is the lack of confidence that costs them the game against Gold Coast, for example, which administrators would have banked on winning to show the incremental improvement (and which they should have won). The problem for Bolton became that you couldn't see where the next win would come from because they couldn't even get the basics right for the talent of McKay and Curnow, for example, to get them over the line against other sides low on the ladder (and yes I'm sounding dangerously similar to a current David King soundbite).

Bolton has been shown-up severely by Teague who is getting the results that should be expected of a side that has as much raw ability as Carlton has, even if they're probably still too young in many key areas. I have no doubt that they'll probably cop another severe belting this year, probably even two, but that's also because there are too many skinny kids who are not yet playing consistent adult footy. They haven't necessarily beaten anyone of not but isn't that what this year was about, winning 6 to 8 games probably against the bottom 6 teams on the ladder?

There is no reason that what Carlton is doing is not sustainable and why they can't mirror the improvement made by Fagan and the Lions now that they seem to have found a groove. They've got a similarly well balanced side with a lot of high end talent, in the key and in the middle.

Walsh, Silvagni, Dow, O'Brien, Fisher, SPS, Setterfield, McKay, Curnow, Kennedy, Marchbank, Stocker, Pickett, Garlett, Williamson and Weitering are all 2014 draft and more recent and they've all played AFL and shown at least signs. How many performances would you describe as "match winning" have been played by kids on our list from the same generation (Tippa and Brown have played some but what about 18-19 year old recruits)? Have we even had someone claim a top 3 performance? I'm not saying it hasn't happened but nothing jumps out at me.

The interesting thing for Carlton is what they do if this run continues. It looks like there are probably 2 more winnable games. That would give Teague a record of 5 wins from 11 games. If the percentage remains healthy how do they not sign him for next year? If he was to win 6/10 I would think he should get the gig by default.

What's the best thing Carlton's coach could do next year? It would be to create an environment that enables the talent on the list to start winning matches to put them in the mix for the top 8. There is a very good chance Teague has already done that.
 
How did Bolton not play Marc Murphy in the midfield, been on fire since Teague put him back there. So has Ziebell (to some extent, although as shown yesterday he’s not that good). Same story last year with Boak, wasted at HF, this year returns to mid and is playing AA level.
 
Apr 23, 2016
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How did Bolton not play Marc Murphy in the midfield, been on fire since Teague put him back there. So has Ziebell (to some extent, although as shown yesterday he’s not that good). Same story last year with Boak, wasted at HF, this year returns to mid and is playing AA level.

Simpson and Newman have both missed games, along with Docherty already being out. They’ve got an extremely young backline, not entirely outlandish to play Murphy back there temporarily to provide guidance.

I do think BrunoV makes a good point about simplifying the message, Bolton seemed convoluted and Buckley has talked before about having to simplify things for players.

We forget that they’re usually under physical duress making decisions, and often aren’t great thinkers to begin with. Simple is best.
 
What are the examples?

Matt Primus went 5-2 as caretaker at Port, got the job and it all went to hell less than 2 years later.

Mark Harvey went 4-3. Scott Camporeale (different circumstances) went something like 7-3 but never got the job or any other HC job
 
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