General Bombers Talk Non-Essendon Thread XI

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BrunoV

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I wanted to go back through Hawthorn's drafting since 2010 for a few reasons. Primarily I wanted to see what they have to work with among their next generation. I thought that it would help to shoot to pieces the myth that their drafting is good (first round recruiting post 2005 was also woeful).

I was going to copy and past their draft performances but it was too long - there has been huge list turnover which did surprise me given that they had been in contention from 2011 to 2015). What I've gone for, instead, is the list of players recruited between 2010 and 2015 who are still on their list and the number of picks taken each year. In italics are two players who they did recruit, Brad Hill and Hallahan, who are now at other clubs and who were traded for value. I haven't bothered with 2016 because it will distort the numbers in a year in which it is likely that none of those players will survive.


2010 - ten picks (national and rookie)

Isaac Smith (pick 19)
Mitch Hallahan (pick 38)
Will Langford (rookie pick)
Puopolo (pick 66)

2011 - 8 picks

Brad Hill (pick 33)


2012 -
5 picks

Tim O'Brien (pick 28)
Kaiden Brand (pick 66)

2013 - 11 picks

Billy Hartung (pick 24)
James Sicily (pick 56)
Kurt Heatherley (rookie)

2014 - 7 picks

Daniel Howe (Pick 31)
Teia Miles (pick 49)
Marc Pittonet (pick 50)

2015 - 7 picks

Ryan Burton (pick 19)
Kieran Lovell (pick 22)
Blake Hardwick (pick 44)
Kade Stewart (rookie)


It's a train wreck and what it demonstrates, as far as I am concerned, is that they're not particularly well run and that they have Clarkson to thank for being able to wring every drop of ability out of the players the Hawks have recruited. Contrast this with Geelong which has been a premiership contender for a period which stretches 10 years (from 2007 to 2016) and even if they do fall off the perch in the next 12 months (it will be a short rebuild). The Cats have continued to regenerate their list via draft, trading and free agency.

The interesting thing that will come out in the wash is the extent to which Clarkson has been able to influence drafting recruiting decisions. While they were competitive last year Clarkson was crowing about contested possession being overrated but, in selling the farm for Mitchell and O'Meara, he has conceded that his views were either bravado or they were wrong. What I found particularly interesting is that so many of the burned picks were on small players I would describe as "outside" and who would fit that mould of clean user of the ball (that could overcome contested deficiencies).

It's all part of the circle-jerk that is a successful club, Essendon 1999-2001 was the same thing. Recruiting gets thrown out the window because it's excusable to draft poorly because you don't have high picks. It's really a time when the recruiters ought to be reading for the 2013 Dodoro play-book. It's using picks after the second round when recruiters earn their pay checks not picking top 20 talents that every man and his dog can see are good players.
 

Lore

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I wanted to go back through Hawthorn's drafting since 2010 for a few reasons. Primarily I wanted to see what they have to work with among their next generation. I thought that it would help to shoot to pieces the myth that their drafting is good (first round recruiting post 2005 was also woeful).

I was going to copy and past their draft performances but it was too long - there has been huge list turnover which did surprise me given that they had been in contention from 2011 to 2015). What I've gone for, instead, is the list of players recruited between 2010 and 2015 who are still on their list and the number of picks taken each year. In italics are two players who they did recruit, Brad Hill and Hallahan, who are now at other clubs and who were traded for value. I haven't bothered with 2016 because it will distort the numbers in a year in which it is likely that none of those players will survive.


2010 - ten picks (national and rookie)

Isaac Smith (pick 19)
Mitch Hallahan (pick 38)
Will Langford (rookie pick)
Puopolo (pick 66)

2011 - 8 picks

Brad Hill (pick 33)


2012 -
5 picks

Tim O'Brien (pick 28)
Kaiden Brand (pick 66)

2013 - 11 picks

Billy Hartung (pick 24)
James Sicily (pick 56)
Kurt Heatherley (rookie)

2014 - 7 picks

Daniel Howe (Pick 31)
Teia Miles (pick 49)
Marc Pittonet (pick 50)

2015 - 7 picks

Ryan Burton (pick 19)
Kieran Lovell (pick 22)
Blake Hardwick (pick 44)
Kade Stewart (rookie)


It's a train wreck and what it demonstrates, as far as I am concerned, is that they're not particularly well run and that they have Clarkson to thank for being able to wring every drop of ability out of the players the Hawks have recruited. Contrast this with Geelong which has been a premiership contender for a period which stretches 10 years (from 2007 to 2016) and even if they do fall off the perch in the next 12 months (it will be a short rebuild). The Cats have continued to regenerate their list via draft, trading and free agency.

The interesting thing that will come out in the wash is the extent to which Clarkson has been able to influence drafting recruiting decisions. While they were competitive last year Clarkson was crowing about contested possession being overrated but, in selling the farm for Mitchell and O'Meara, he has conceded that his views were either bravado or they were wrong. What I found particularly interesting is that so many of the burned picks were on small players I would describe as "outside" and who would fit that mould of clean user of the ball (that could overcome contested deficiencies).

It's all part of the circle-jerk that is a successful club, Essendon 1999-2001 was the same thing. Recruiting gets thrown out the window because it's excusable to draft poorly because you don't have high picks. It's really a time when the recruiters ought to be reading for the 2013 Dodoro play-book. It's using picks after the second round when recruiters earn their pay checks not picking top 20 talents that every man and his dog can see are good players.
How does this compare with other "good" clubs? You've mentioned Geelong, I'm thinking Sydney (off the perch) and possibly the Bulldogs (one hit wonder) could be interesting studies? I've got some stuff comparing the age profiles/contract length profiles of those clubs that I could go find as well later (they're on the computer somewhere).
 

VelvetSledge

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I hate their theme song. Makes me want to puke.
So puke in the toilet,
And please don't miss the bowl!
Puke in the toilet,
North Melbourne's song is balls
Bloody North Melbourne,
They're shithouse you'll agree
Their song makes raskolnikov chuck,
Just you wait and seeeeee
 

BrunoV

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How does this compare with other "good" clubs? You've mentioned Geelong, I'm thinking Sydney (off the perch) and possibly the Bulldogs (one hit wonder) could be interesting studies? I've got some stuff comparing the age profiles/contract length profiles of those clubs that I could go find as well later (they're on the computer somewhere).

Well, given that I'm procrastinating this morning:

Geelong:

2010 - 9 picks

Billie Smedts (pick 15)
Cameron Guthrie (pick 29)
George Horlin-Smith (pick 37)

2011 - 9 picks

Joel Hamling (pick 32)
Shane Kersten (pick 34)

Jordan Murdoch (pick 48)
Lincoln McCarthy (pick 66)
Jed Bews (rookie)
Marc Blicavs (rookie)

2012 - 3 picks

Jackson Thurlow (pick 16)

2013 - 9 picks

Darcy Lang (pick 16)
Jarrad Jansen (pick 36)
Jake Kolodjashnji (pick 41)

2014 - 7 picks

Nakai Cockatoo (pick 10)
Corey Gregson (pick 47)
Dean Gore (pick 55)
Jordan Cunico (rookie)
Padraig Lucey (rookie)

2015 - 7 picks

Ryan Gardner (pick 59)
Sam Menegola (pick 66)
Wylie Buzza (pick 69)
Matthew Hayball (pick 70)
James Parsons (rookie)
Tom Ruggles (rookie)


A really big difference between the clubs is that Geelong can already bank Parfitt and probably Tom Stewart from their draft last year in addition to bringing Tuohy via a trade. If you look at Hawthorn's strike rate with its late picks, you'd not think that any of their 4 new players will make it.

I'm not sure what to make of it all and I'm not sure that the way I've broken it down is the way that all clubs should be assessed. It can be distorted because Geelong might cull 10 players at the end of the year who are the later picks that they've currently held on to.

I don't think that it is necessarily relevant to look at who has won premierships as an excuse for the list management performance. The difference between winning a premiership and finishing fourth probably should not make a difference to the way in which you can and should manage your list. That Hawthorn has chased Baines from St Kilda tends to indicate to me that there is a genuine problem with the running of their footy department. Why else do you want to install a football person as your CEO?
 
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Lore

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Well, given that I'm procrastinating this morning:

Geelong:

2010 - 9 picks

Billie Smedts (pick 15)
Cameron Guthrie (pick 29)
George Horlin-Smith (pick 37)

2011 - 9 picks

Joel Hamling (pick 32)
Shane Kersten (pick 34)

Jordan Murdoch (pick 48)
Lincoln McCarthy (pick 66)
Jed Bews (rookie)
Marc Blicavs (rookie)

2012 - 3 picks

Jackson Thurlow (pick 16)

2013 - 9 picks

Darcy Lang (pick 16)
Jarrad Jansen (pick 36)
Jake Kolodjashnji (pick 41)

2014 - 7 picks

Nakai Cockatoo (pick 10)
Corey Gregson (pick 47)
Dean Gore (pick 55)
Jordan Cunico (rookie)
Padraig Lucey (rookie)

2015 - 7 picks

Ryan Gardner (pick 59)
Sam Menegola (pick 66)
Wylie Buzza (pick 69)
Matthew Hayball (pick 70)
James Parsons (rookie)
Tom Ruggles (rookie)


A really big difference between the clubs is that Geelong can already bank Parfitt and probably Tom Stewart from their draft last year in addition to bringing Tuohy via a trade. If you look at Hawthorn's strike rate with its late picks, you'd not think that any of their 4 new players will make it.

I'm not sure what to make of it all and I'm not sure that the way I've broken it down is the way that all clubs should be assessed. It can be distorted because Geelong might cull 10 players at the end of the year who are the later picks that they've currently held on to.

I don't think that it is necessarily relevant to look at who has won premierships as an excuse for the list management performance. The difference between winning a premiership and finishing fourth probably should not make a difference to the way in which you can and should manage your list. That Hawthorn has chased Baines from St Kilda tends to indicate to me that there is a genuine problem with the running of their footy department. Why else do you want to install a football person as your CEO?
I'll have to write a proper reply after the game but thanks for putting the time into this :)
 

Whispering_Jack

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I have a theory that Sunday games are almost always sub-par. The crowd is subdued, either hungover or depressed about Monday, so the atmosphere is shit, and it flows over to the players. Today is a case in point.
Players are probably hungover too.
 
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