North Korea - much ado about nothing?

[skipper kelly]

I don't see the problem with face-to-face talks. If the US wants to be global policeman, it shouldn't have to surround itself with other countries all the time for talks.

I dont agree with the go it alone route. Face to face talks sounds good but should involve other world powers.(imo)

 

[just maybe]

I dont agree with the go it alone route. Face to face talks sounds good but should involve other world powers.(imo)

But I don't see the problem with giving it a go. The US isn't exactly a weak hand in negotiations, I don't see why they're so reticent to meet NK one-on-one - Clinton did it with success. See what NK has got to offer in the one-on-one scenario.

 

[skipper kelly]

In exactly the same way as he has with Iraq and Iran... with consistency.

Saddam supposedly had WMDs and was removed, Iran is gearing towards nuclear weapon capability and is a target , North Korea has missiles on the pad and its diplomacy..wtf?

The only result I could see from invading North Korea would be many more deaths. Not the course of action I would recommend.

 

[otaku]

As it is, both would be absolute logistical nightmares and the death toll would make Iraq look like a fairytale walk in the park.

I agree - the idea of the US going into NK is horrendous. However, the fact that NK is again testing missiles, and is known to have the capapbility to produce (if it hasnt already) nuclear weapons is a thing to be worried about.

NK has the 5th largest standing army in the world - another reason why going into NK would be folly at this time.

 

[skipper kelly]

But I don't see the problem with giving it a go. The US isn't exactly a weak hand in negotiations, I don't see why they're so reticent to meet NK one-on-one - Clinton did it with success. See what NK has got to offer in the one-on-one scenario.

I can only see that as lose/lose for the US.

 

[just maybe]

I agree - the idea of the US going into NK is horrendous. However, the fact that NK is again testing missiles, and is known to have the capapbility to produce (if it hasnt already) nuclear weapons is a thing to be worried about.

NK has the 5th largest standing army in the world - another reason why going into NK would be folly at this time.

But, going back to my OP, apart from South Korea, NK has shown zero external aggression (I don't count missile tests as aggression) and, as I argued, would be completely unlikely to - given that Kim Jong-Il is a dictator who obviously enjoys his power and would be perfectly aware that attacking anywhere would result in his immediate annihilation.

I would wager his missile-building is a function of his paranoia, not any wish to expand his territory.

 

[just maybe]

I can only see that as lose/lose for the US.

How so?

 

[skipper kelly]

How so?

give me time to explain

 

[skilts]

Maybe NK has reason to be 'paranoid'? IIRC, they are still at war with the U.S. over a little bit of unfinished business from the 1950s. The ceasefire is the only thing standing between the two sides resuming full-scale hostilities

In that case, I suppose it can be said in America's favour, they at least had the decency to actually declare war.

Tend to agree with whoever said that NK is doing this as a means of ratcheting up foreign aid. Plus, the unbridled delight they get in scaring the bejesus out of the Japanese.

'Twould certainly be an interesting exercise if the U.S. were to resume hostilities. Assuming a U.S victory, the subsequent occupation of NK will make Iraq look like a meeting of the Gandhi Society (Mahatma that is).

 

[otaku]

But, going back to my OP, apart from South Korea, NK has shown zero external aggression (I don't count missile tests as aggression) and, as I argued, would be completely unlikely to - given that Kim Jong-Il is a dictator who obviously enjoys his power and would be perfectly aware that attacking anywhere would result in his immediate annihilation.

I would wager his missile-building is a function of his paranoia, not any wish to expand his territory.

Japan?

and as a delusional dictator who controls the 5th largest army in the world, who is to say he isnt getting ambitious?

This doesnt mean i think we should use force - but it is something to consider. After all, one "oops" and there will be very little in the way of retailiation.

 

[RustyHawk]

Im so glad the girls of this site like the murrys, skpper kelly and just mybe can just dismiss this little incident as a "much ado about nothing" I suppose you think this is similar to having a roller come out of your hair at the dressers? Oh well, Dave wont notice, you say.

Well to all the others there is some concern, I note that the Security Counsel sees fit to have an emergency discussion about the issue..... but im sure the girls mentioned above would say "what would they know"

Couple of major points.

1) The U.N. lead by the US and supported by Australia, GB and others only have a ceasefirewith the NK's.

2) NK started the war back in about 51 with an attack into SK -- precedent - done it before - not finished - that sort of thing. (Im sorry you poor socialist girls like Murray, Kelly & Maybe have to hear that sort of thing.... maybe we can do the usual socialist thing and get history changed or just not mention the war)

3) Japan. In return for Japanese only having a military for self defence the US has agreements to defend Japan against aggression.

4) Japan. Growing call from within some sections of that society to beef up their armed forces. Further, others want the US out of Japan. The only US aircraft carrier prepositioned outside the US is based in Japan. Currently a conventionally powered carrier soon to be decommissioned and replaced with a new nuclear powered carrier.

Significance
Not sure the significance? Imagine a US nuke powered a/c based in Port Phillip bay? Imagine now if someone hit it with a missile, by mistake... of course. Imagine now that u know in 4-5 years a nice juicy target will be within missile range. What would you do?

Would your major benefactor be pleased? - I should think yes.

Aircraft carriers are designed to withstand anything but direct nuke hit so a conventional missile might make a hole but not much more. Doesnt even have to hit to get the effect. In this case it would be US out of Japan.

Removing the US forces away from China where they carryout close up and personal surveillance of Chinese forces.

Makes it harder for US to help SK in case of attack.

Strengthens NK in case of attack by forcing more forces to be kept back and deployed for defensive purposes.

The other reason we should not be quite so flippant is history

Unfortunately there is precedent to this sort of thing, I believe called World War 1.

It went something like this. A member of one royal family gets killed. That country blames another so limited action is taken and then all the various defence treaties come into play so in the end the death of an Austrian Duke leads to millions being slaughtered on the Eastern and Western fronts between Germany, Russia, France, GB & allies.

Same thing can happen in this case.

As mentioned above. US has obligations to defend Japan.

Scenario 1
Japan cops a missile, by mistake of course from NK, but a missile none the less. They certainly have been known to go off course. What does Japan do? Do they retaliate? You bettya. NK responds, US defends Japan and attacks NK.... China...what do they do. What happens if US missile misses NK and hits China???

or

Scenario 2
Japan seeing a missile coming and fearing it will land in their territory desides to destroy the missile (if they can) via either fighters or SAM missiles or other. Japan has now committed an act against NK. What does NK do. The natural thing I would suspect launch raids along the coast or from submarines. (They build 2 diesel subs a year - old but they have many of them) and so it goes on.


Finally

Much a do about nothing or worth the UN security councils emergency meeting?

It doesnt take much for various treaties and obligations to come into force.....Im not saying the scenarios are going to happen, just they could.

Easy solution. NK to ask China to test fire their missiles in the barren outer eastern areas of China, on Chinas missile proving grounds... easy rather than test firing into the busy seas so close to Japan.

 

[CoggaRules]

No, PC. I don't want consistency on a bad decision. I will actually get a glimmer of respect for Bush if he learns from his mistakes and doesn't attempt to invade NK or Iran.

As it is, both would be absolute logistical nightmares and the death toll would make Iraq look like a fairytale walk in the park.

I would be tipping it goes much much deeper than just NK there JM.
I would be tipping, big brother commy, who lives next door and has no concerns whatsoever with the US over Taiwan, is in the coach's box as we speak. This is why '"diplomacy" is being sought big time.

 

[- PC -]

The only result I could see from invading North Korea would be many more deaths. Not the course of action I would recommend.

I agree that the deaths will be of a high number...but there are other ways to affect regime change without a high casualty count, unfortunately NKs closed shop restricts a great deal of what one can do.

It is said Kim lives in a 7 storey palace... bomb that

The options are as I see them

1. Internal people revolt... high loss of life and success needs the army onside... Kim continues to feed the army and they wont support any revolt.If it looks like succeeding Kim will fire off a few missiles anyway in petulance

2. External regime change.... either through international pressure.. or assasination. The assasination must be successful at the first attempt or once more the retaliation will be a petulant display

3. Diplomatic pressure.... It hasnt really worked , all it is doing is delaying action while Kim gets stronger. A lack of action also sees other rogue states like Iran play the nuclear game ( there can be no doubt Iran have seen what the international community are not doing)

I can see where JM is coming from in his ''bad consistency'' but if your going to be diplomatic on NK then Iran has many more chances as well. Not the red target it currently is

 

[just maybe]

RustyHawk has just convinced me it's much ado about nothing.

 

[- PC -]

I would wager his missile-building is a function of his paranoia, not any wish to expand his territory.

Is Irans territory building?

 

[skilts]

RustyHawk has just convinced me it's much ado about nothing.

RustyHawk seems to be suffering under the misapprehension that Skipper Kelly is some sort of a pacifist, possibly even a Commo. Nothing else needs to be said really.

 

[skipper kelly]

I agree that the deaths will be of a high number...but there are other ways to affect regime change without a high casualty count, unfortunately NKs closed shop restricts a great deal of what one can do.

It is said Kim lives in a 7 storey palace... bomb that

The options are as I see them

1. Internal people revolt... high loss of life and success needs the army onside... Kim continues to feed the army and they wont support any revolt.If it looks like succeeding Kim will fire off a few missiles anyway in petulance

2. External regime change.... either through international pressure.. or assasination. The assasination must be successful at the first attempt or once more the retaliation will be a petulant display

3. Diplomatic pressure.... It hasnt really worked , all it is doing is delaying action while Kim gets stronger. A lack of action also sees other rogue states like Iran play the nuclear game ( there can be no doubt Iran have seen what the international community are not doing)

I can see where JM is coming from in his ''bad consistency'' but if your going to be diplomatic on NK then Iran has many more chances as well. Not the red target it currently is

Buggered if I know PC.

 

[skipper kelly]

RustyHawk seems to be suffering under the misapprehension that Skipper Kelly is some sort of a pacifist, possibly even a Commo. Nothing else needs to be said really.

please explain

 

[skilts]

Im so glad the girls of this site like the murrys, skpper kelly and just mybe can just dismiss this little incident as a "much ado about nothing" I suppose you think this is similar to having a roller come out of your hair at the dressers? Oh well, Dave wont notice, you say.

This is the comment to which I'm referring Skip.

 

[CoggaRules]

2. External regime change.... either through international pressure.. or assasination. The assasination must be successful at the first attempt or once more the retaliation will be a petulant display

PC, you cant see any similar pattern whatsoever with this and another part of the world huh? NK has same ideology to a certain other superpower, which might even be "the" superpower. NK in the middle of what kind of ideologies?
Now see if the Israel-US pattern is similar.
Kim is just a puppet, and is being used as a smoke screen to make all of us think its a rogue state, lead by a madman. Now if it was like that, wouldnt you think the next door neighbour would be tapping him on the shoulder and suggesting, he pull his head in? Now why dont they?
Take a look at the markets, oil has skyrocketed, and who does it hurt? yep most capitalist nations, who rely heavily on that commodity, where as China has it cozy with Iran.
Like i said before, they are very smart and very shrewd, as opposed to what you have running that other superpower.

 

[skipper kelly]

This is the comment to which I'm referring Skip.

Sorry. I didnt read that post. Fancy me being grouped with Murray and Just Maybe.

BTW. Am I the pacifist?

 

[- PC -]

Now why dont they?

You tell me

Take a look at the markets, oil has skyrocketed, and who does it hurt? yep most capitalist nations, who rely heavily on that commodity, where as China has it cozy with Iran.

I wont pretend to understand half the reasons oil companies panic at the sign of aggression far away from their supplies. I think greed dictates prices. F_U had it spot on.. ''wonder what excuse we can come up with to gouge motorists tomorrow''

 

[CoggaRules]

You tell me

I wont pretend to understand half the reasons oil companies panic at the sign of aggression far away from their supplies. I think greed dictates prices. F_U had it spot on.. ''wonder what excuse we can come up with to gouge motorists tomorrow''

no doubt about the excuses, i kind of cottoned onto that stuff when the weather forecast for the gulf, was affecting oil prices.
But this one is different, i would suggest this is serious mum.
You need a hell of a lot of oil when a big time conflict is in the smoke signals.
The only thing that suggests otherwise, IMO, is that here we are, supposedly on the verge of an actual nuke attack happening.
Like never thought it would ever happen, but of course, you tend to have accountants and sons of fathers, making desicions nowadays, and when you do you end up with pretty F***ed up logic. But there is one saving grace, and its from left field too.
First set the scene, world holding its breath, emergency UN meeting, rockets firing, you name it, its got diplomacy required big time, from diplomats from all over and what do you see? yep, a foreign minister, our foreing minister, out and about yesterday morning, smiling as he suggested it was to too cold at this time of the morning, when doing something that was aligned to anything but foreign diplomacy.

 

[skilts]

Sorry. I didnt read that post. Fancy me being grouped with Murray and Just Maybe.

BTW. Am I the pacifist?

You've always been a little pacific to me. Just a hint of Mediterranean as well. A man of the world.

 

[Suspense]

I tend to agree. While the matter is certianly one to keep an eye on, it's nothing to start panicking about.
There is no way that Kim Jong-Il has any way to permenently cripple the U.S. nationwide with his nukes. Sure, he could do some fair amount of damage, but the U.S. would respond so hard and so fast, they wouldn't know what hit 'em. Hence, even if I agree that the man is completely mad, I don't think his madness extends to the desire of total self-destruction.

I can fully understand why they feel the need to develop such weapons for self defense though. If they were threatened with an invasion (like some people have suggested) they would want to make sure that what happened to countries without nukes such as Afghanistan and Iraq doesn't happen to them also.

If anything, I would say it has more to do with having some bargining power and attention on the world stage. He is more or less saying "Hey, guys look what I'm doing. Aren't I naughty?"