North Korea v South Korea On The Brink Of War

[rdhopkins2]

North Korea v South Korea are on the brink of war according to media. Whilst these two countries are technically still in ceasefire, are we likely to see this escalate?

Let's hope not. The people are always dealt harshest by conflict.

 

[Thrawn]

Aren't they already at war?

 

[TheFreshBanana]

Source?

 

[rdhopkins2]

ABC & news.com.au have articles.

 

[Gough]

I think it was Colon Powell who said that if North Korea tried it on, they would turn Pyongyang into a carpark. I doubt this is much more than posturing.

 

[Sydneyfan]

I don't think much will come of it. The Norks are just using their usual brinkmanship to barter more concessions from the South as they have done for the last two decades. They had more success with this during the Kim Dae-Jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations which fully embraced the 'Sunshine Policy' but saw little to no improvement in the conditions for ordinary North Koreans. They've found it much harder with the conservative Lee and Park administrations, and seem to be upping the ante.

Whilst this series of provocations is one of the more serious of the past decade, there have been numerous others and this will most likely cool down unless the North do something insane, such as shell border towns or villages, which I don't they'll do.

Koreans are largely blasé to these acts from the North, having lived under a state of frozen war for sixty years, and haven't lived there I increasingly felt the same. When South Koreans en masse start getting anxious and looking for escape routes South, then they'll be need for concern. But, nothing remotely indicates that atm.

That said, I can't say for sure as I left Korea before Kim Jong-un came to power however I do get the feeling that S Koreans are more wary of him than his old man, as I feel they knew where they stood with Kim Jong-il but are less sure of KJU's motives and/or stability (mentally and within the regime).

 

[rdhopkins2]

KJU seems to throw the weight around more than KJI which worries me. Look at the executions of opponents and relatives as evidence. KJI was no saint but his his son is absolutely nuts.

I just hope this is posturing. The last thing the region or its people need is an escalation of tyrannical violence.

 

[Sydneyfan]

Yeah, the worry is if KJI is genuinely insane, and given his decision making over the past two years, that's a distinct possibility.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

I doubt much will happen. The North know they would be bigger losers and the conservatives running the South have little interest in advancing reunification.

 

[telsor]

I doubt much will happen. The North know they would be bigger losers and the conservatives running the South have little interest in advancing reunification.

Do they?

Surround yourself with yes men for long enough and you'll believe anything is possible.


On other questions in the thread.

Yes, technically they're still at war, they've only ever agreed to a ceasefire.

Yes, it's 'real'.
One side turned on it's loudspeakers 'shouting' propaganda at the other side (there was an agreement to stop that), The other side shot at the speakers and (IIRC) the first side shot back (can't remember which side is which).

The ceasefire really is fragile enough for that to have the potential to escalate. I gather the North now have their army on a 'quasi-war' state of readiness (whatever that means).

 

[Sydneyfan]

The South reestablished their broadcasts in response to two South Korean soldiers losing their legs two weeks ago patrolling the fence along the DMZ due to North Korean laid landmines. Broadcasting K-Pop is something I wouldn't want to inflict on my worse enemy but was in response to provocation from the North.

 

[Todman]

North Korea is China's problem

 

[Yellow Feathers]

I like Kim Jnr. Good old fashioned crazy right there. Has the lunatic nailed perfectly. Impressive really.

Pretty sure nothing will come out of this, but I'm watching nervously all the same.

The general consensus is that if war were to break out, China would probably annex NK and that would be that.

 

[Sydneyfan]

North Korea is China's problem

Some analysts are suggesting this current series of provocations are evidence of how far the communication {control} channels have been eroded between China and North Korea. Under KJI, China were able to rein NK in when necessary, perhaps as such now.

Meanwhile, at this moment the two Koreas are holding high levels talks at Panmunjeom on the DMZ to resolve this current flare up.

 

[Todman]

If North Korea hurts China's money tree then the Chinese will do something about it.

 

[Collingwood pro]

China would want North Korea to not die because if they fall it would lead to a massive influx of refugees into their borders (talking millions). The affect it would have on China would be disastrous because they wont have the ability to handle it and it could erode their territorial integrity and create chaos. So really its in their best interests to keep them talking and peaceful with South Korea to avoid a possible collapse. Unfortunately for them, Kim Jong Un ... sorry supreme leader ... is no where near as reasonable as his father (if that's even possible.)

 

[blackcat]

North Korea v South Korea are on the brink of war according to media. Whilst these two countries are technically still in ceasefire, are we likely to see this escalate?

Let's hope not. The people are always dealt harshest by conflict.

no, Kim Yong just wants some more humanitarian donations flow his way. this brinksmanship with two "s" or a single "s" brinkmanship is well known in international affairs, the israelis have it down to a fine art. ask MaddAdam

oh, the Persians tried this and it backfired on them in about 2002 when they went ahead and started building more centrifuges, just to tradeaway in some dialectic fungible negotiation. And DC and Bush put the smack down on the Shia for playing realpolitik when they were not invited

 

[blackcat]

I think it was Colon Powell who said that if North Korea tried it on, they would turn Pyongyang into a carpark. I doubt this is much more than posturing.

but Seoul is within 30km of the parallel, and, they have their artillery batteries dug in. Well, it did not do the Nazis any good on those French beaches, and the devil's advocate I read, they would do immense damage to Seoul but they would be up and back to work within a week like NYC on 9/11. I dont know what to think, I have not war-gamed it.

 

[blackcat]

Unfortunately for them, Kim Jong Un ... sorry supreme leader ... is no where near as reasonable as his father (if that's even possible.)

this assumes it his he who holds the strings, and not his court advisors and generals. I think it would be a bit of both, his uncle from maternal side was a major player, but we were told he was killed by Kim about 5 years back. If it was no longer him with the influence cos he is really dead, and not just in a gulag, how much influence to the advisors and generals wield? anyone got a line to the CIA? and if you do, how would we believe those folks in Virginia.

 

[blackcat]

I don't think much will come of it. The Norks are just using their usual brinkmanship to barter more concessions from the South as they have done for the last two decades. They had more success with this during the Kim Dae-Jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations which fully embraced the 'Sunshine Policy' but saw little to no improvement in the conditions for ordinary North Koreans. They've found it much harder with the conservative Lee and Park administrations, and seem to be upping the ante.

Whilst this series of provocations is one of the more serious of the past decade, there have been numerous others and this will most likely cool down unless the North do something insane, such as shell border towns or villages, which I don't they'll do.

Koreans are largely blasé to these acts from the North, having lived under a state of frozen war for sixty years, and haven't lived there I increasingly felt the same. When South Koreans en masse start getting anxious and looking for escape routes South, then they'll be need for concern. But, nothing remotely indicates that atm.

That said, I can't say for sure as I left Korea before Kim Jong-un came to power however I do get the feeling that S Koreans are more wary of him than his old man, as I feel they knew where they stood with Kim Jong-il but are less sure of KJU's motives and/or stability (mentally and within the regime).

basically what i just typed out. yep. I agree.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Absolute s**t, I have two friends who are currently in North Korea, bit risky to go over there but really hoping they just go on the government demanded tours and GTFO or we're refused entry via china

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Yeah, the worry is if KJI is genuinely insane, and given his decision making over the past two years, that's a distinct possibility.

Oh, he is. Before he came to power he was already reported to be the loopiest of the bunch (although how much reports can ever be trusted, especially to do with North Korea is an open question). With any luck he will hit the third generation empire collapse, a common though strange phenomenon with business and political empires.

The problem is that if that was to happen, before the regime falls it is likely to try to save itself with one final piece of desperation. In that case, a desperate move may well be to escalate things with SK and maybe Japan; and rely on the US to stay out because China will back NK if the US got involved.

Japan looking to amend its constitutional limits on the use of armed forces may have more to do with North Korea than joining US and UN forces in world hotspots.

 

[Collingwood pro]

this assumes it his he who holds the strings, and not his court advisors and generals. I think it would be a bit of both, his uncle from maternal side was a major player, but we were told he was killed by Kim about 5 years back. If it was no longer him with the influence cos he is really dead, and not just in a gulag, how much influence to the advisors and generals wield? anyone got a line to the CIA? and if you do, how would we believe those folks in Virginia.

I can't tell but I'd assume that he does hold significant power especially over his advisers. Kim Jong Un is relatively easy to read, he seems to be a typical dictator who wants money and power. He comes across as a blow hard, trying to keep his crumbling state from falling down upon him but that's a highly uneducated guess. Unless there is a secret force behind him controlling everything, which to be honest is far scarier, because we would have no clue to guess about their motives.

 

[blackcat]

I can't tell but I'd assume that he does hold significant power especially over his advisers. Kim Jong Un is relatively easy to read, he seems to be a typical dictator who wants money and power. He comes across as a blow hard, trying to keep his crumbling state from falling down upon him but that's a highly uneducated guess. Unless there is a secret force behind him controlling everything, which to be honest is far scarier, because we would have no clue to guess about their motives.

how do we know this tho? Are not we relying on a filter from Virginia, that is the CIA. And the American State Department. and we believe them at our own peril.

And how would Kim have any appreciation of "money". power yes, but money, asset money, western consumption?

We are told he likes his gold watches or his french Moet champagne or other froggie bubbly. We were told the Syrian dictator's english wife (from Syrian family) also liked these things. Maybe they do, but maybe we are just receiving propaganda out of DC and Virginia.

 

[Collingwood pro]

how do we know this tho? Are not we relying on a filter from Virginia, that is the CIA. And the American State Department. and we believe them at our own peril.

And how would Kim have any appreciation of "money". power yes, but money, asset money, western consumption?

We are told he likes his gold watches or his french Moet champagne or other froggie bubbly. We were told the Syrian dictator's english wife (from Syrian family) also liked these things. Maybe they do, but maybe we are just receiving propaganda out of DC and Virginia.

I wouldn't know but usually if someone is after power they need money, just due to the way things work in the world. So it was more of a broad assumption rather than taken from fact or a filter from Virginia.