North Korea v South Korea On The Brink Of War

Well, couldn't find the let's nuke NK thread.. only this one with Sth Korea in the namey thingy.
I dropped this on you many weeks ago...
In our endeavors to compute, evaluate and thus provide recommendations pertaining to the geopolitical tapestry in motion in North Asia, mostly actuarial in nature, my group (political response global or thereabouts for namesake...) through the intensive gathering of information (our core area) we have concluded and advised several active entities accordingly that the risk of war with NK is extreme. Either get out of Dodge, or get into Dodge... what ever rocks your boat.
Conflict will certainly see a multitude of SLMs, and B1/2 deployment.... possibly some level of tactical ground war. It might not be the Americans directly of course...
It's obvious really.
A group known as Geopolitical Futures, has made public overtures to this extent. Their boss George Friedman is, what's the word... oh yeah, show boater (hashtag... he's actually a straight talker, and good guy). His views are sound, and are common in the field...
He however is adamant it will be a unilateral US offensive, possibly before Trump returns from the Wailing Wall... But probably after.
He believes the Chinese are not indentured in this pursuit. That is a very liquid position in my view. The South are not even pawns... LOL.
If you're into global risk analysis, threat assessment, etc. It's money in the bank. It's been on the agenda for 50 years.
 
You think it's possible N. Korea could already have nukes in major ports ready to detonate?
No. But they could attempt to nuke Guam. Nuke, is a generous term. A successful attack would be akin to the preponderance of life on Earth 4 billion years ago. (Or 6000 years ago, depending where you went to school).
 
I just watched another documentary on North Korea ... what a joke of a country. I wish the North Korean people could be liberated from those Orwellian nutjobs in Pyongyang.

personally I can't understand why a coup hasn't been successful to date
 

Rotayjay

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personally I can't understand why a coup hasn't been successful to date
I'm guessing the high-ranking party members get a fairly cushy lifestyle, just like the Soviet Union. Looks like Kim Jong Un is a true autocrat and would execute any high-ranking official Stalin-style they looked at him the wrong way.
 
The US President needs the support of Congress to go to war ...

... but given no peace treaty was signed after the Korean War, could Trump legally start bombing Pyongyang without Congressional support?
 
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The US President needs the support of Congress to go to war ...

... but given no peace treaty was signed after the Korean War, could Trump legally start bombing Pyongyang without Congressiinal support?

yes and in circumstances they are required by treaties to automatically engage in war to defend Sth Korea.

Australia and Vietnam are also bound to war by this treaty
 

Thanks :thumbsu:

... and in circumstances they are required by treaties to automatically engage in war to defend Sth Korea

Australia and Vietnam are also bound to war by this treaty

Even if it's the US who starts resumes the bombing?

I wonder how likely this scenario is in the present political climate?

There's no definitive sign of it now - but there never is.

There are a large bunch of small things though. Trumps
comments when announcing the death of Warmbier
, US flying B-1B Bombers over Koren peninsula (testing defences?) , Trump's strange tweet about China and North Korea

Probably the most compellingly is that Trump is deeply unpopular and has a special investigator on his back. Trump will know better than anyone if there are any skeletons in his closet for Mueller to find. Leaders starting a war has been the textbook solution to that kind of problem since time immemorial.
 
Thanks :thumbsu:



Even if it's the US who starts resumes the bombing?

I wonder how likely this scenario is in the present political climate?

There's no definitive sign of it now - but there never is.

There are a large bunch of small things though. Trumps
comments when announcing the death of Warmbier
, US flying B-1B Bombers over Koren peninsula (testing defences?) , Trump's strange tweet about China and North Korea

Probably the most compellingly is that Trump is deeply unpopular and has a special investigator on his back. Trump will know better than anyone if there are any skeletons in his closet for Mueller to find. Leaders starting a war has been the textbook solution to that kind of problem since time immemorial.

personally I don't think Trump will start a war

he might be a twit but I think he is more a Baldwin and Chamberlain which is even more dangerous than a war monger
 
Thanks :thumbsu:



Even if it's the US who starts resumes the bombing?

I wonder how likely this scenario is in the present political climate?

There's no definitive sign of it now - but there never is.

There are a large bunch of small things though. Trumps
comments when announcing the death of Warmbier
, US flying B-1B Bombers over Koren peninsula (testing defences?) , Trump's strange tweet about China and North Korea

Probably the most compellingly is that Trump is deeply unpopular and has a special investigator on his back. Trump will know better than anyone if there are any skeletons in his closet for Mueller to find. Leaders starting a war has been the textbook solution to that kind of problem since time immemorial.

I can confirm though that Russia and India are cementing deeper ties atm with war metals in huge demand. also rumoured a huge military deal will be agreed in India this coming Sunday. This is to contain the influence of China to the west.

Germany has been secretly doing "dodgy" deals under the radar regarding war metals. These deals are in my opinion against the FTA but I guess dealing in war metals requires a level of opaqueness to maintain confidentiality.

China and the USs military build up is well documented with China way ahead in its endeavours to secure war metals.

All I can say is the US is not as well prepared for a "real" conflict as its peers. That said, US fighter equipment is far more advanced and battle hardened than its peers.
 
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The US President needs the support of Congress to go to war ...

... but given no peace treaty was signed after the Korean War, could Trump legally start bombing Pyongyang without Congressional support?
I understand that there was an Armistice Agreement signed in 1953 by President Eisenhower. If Trump attacked then he would in effect be breaking this agreement.
 
I understand that there was an Armitice Agreement signed in 1953 by President Eisenhower. If Trump attacked then he would in effect be breaking this agreement.
Its a bad deal, worst armistice deal in history!!!
 
I know this little German fella who might beg to differ...

Fake news! That deal was awesome because it was tough on the Germans and ensured they would never start another world war!!!
 
Nth Koreas successful ICBM launch - are they a genuine threat to world peace or would the US destroy them in an instant?

Unsure if its because of the reporting but i get this vague sense of unreality about N Korea, even as if its a big joke

My read is that the North Koreans are simply learning from the history of their neighbours: China and to a lesser extent Russia. Mao Tse Tung brutally starved his country and sent their industry technologically back to the Stone Age during The Great Leap Forward in the quest for nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. The Kim Dynasty can pretty much skip the next step (Cultural Revolution) because they've already achieved those objectives (a compliant population who worships their leader)

Once the nuclear + delivery capability is bedded down (not far off now - they're clearly sprinting to the finish line at the moment) then they'll move onto the next phase of playing nicely with others and opening up their country for business in the sweatshop industry.

There's a lot of sensationalism around North Korea and the threat they pose to the rest of the world with their nuclear weapons. We went through the same thing with China in the sixties - and yet when was the lass time you read in the papers about China being a nuclear threat?

North Korea are playing the long game. They probably see that developing nuclear weapons is the difference between being a country that has low relevance on the international stage (Myanmar, Bangladesh) or sitting at the top table with the big boys (China, Russia)

Dunno if Trump will let them get that far.

He could go the business pragmatist route: rage with a bit of faux bluster, but merrily let them have their way, then have his family rush to the front of the queue to exploit the business opportunities when they open up.

Or he might want create a historical legacy and boost his domestic popularity by being the US president who waged war on North Korea.
 
Nth Koreas successful ICBM launch - are they a genuine threat to world peace or would the US destroy them in an instant?

Unsure if its because of the reporting but i get this vague sense of unreality about N Korea, even as if its a big joke

The US is securing and producing "products" for military purposes in case of a nuclear war.

Personally I see NK as a joke and a non-event but India, Russia and the USs response to NK is anything but a joke.
 
Question for DapperJong

Is it true you have dismantled your entire nuke program after hearing Barnaby Joyce say australia will attack you if you nuke america?
 
No. But they could attempt to nuke Guam. Nuke, is a generous term. A successful attack would be akin to the preponderance of life on Earth 4 billion years ago. (Or 6000 years ago, depending where you went to school).
Didn't see this coming. LOL.
(Early May this was as obvious as **** on a bull.)
Trump's deflections are without boundaries and have been factored from day 1)
Please catch up.
 
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FPPF

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I understand that there was an Armistice Agreement signed in 1953 by President Eisenhower. If Trump attacked then he would in effect be breaking this agreement.

North Korea has violated the armistice many times, attacking South Korean ships and attacking a South Korean island. Pretty sure people died fro those attacks.

If it wasn't for impotent administrations in Washington North Korea would have been dealt with then.

Now it's gotten to the stage of nuclear tests and test firings of icbms that they barely have control over. One the other day nearly hit an air France plane on its way back down.

They should bomb the Kim Jung cult into dust. Should have happened years ago. Better late the never. Hopefully the Mad Dog Mattis gets to party.
 
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