North Korea v South Korea On The Brink Of War

[Sydneyfan]

The prevailing geopolitical paradigm in regards to North Korea for the past 65 years has been largely based on the assumption that whilst the North Korean regime may not be rational in its decision-making; that is counter-balanced by all the other key stakeholders - South Korea, Japan, China, Russia & the US - being more or less rational parties despite their competing, and often conflicting, agendas for the Korean Peninsula.

My fear now is that this premise is no longer guaranteed with Trump in power. I hope there are still at least some level heads with an ear to the Oval Office.

Need to get back to six party talks with North Korea involving all the key players - China, US, Sth Korea, Russia & Japan.

If you try to match madness with madness the only result is misery.

 

[Betty Noir]

The prevailing geopolitical paradigm in regards to North Korea for the past 65 years has been largely based on the assumption that whilst the North Korean regime may not be rational in its decision-making; that is counter-balanced by all the other key stakeholders - South Korea, Japan, China, Russia & the US - being more or less rational parties despite their competing, and often conflicting, agendas for the Korean Peninsula.

My fear now is that this premise is no longer guaranteed with Trump in power. I hope there are still at least some level heads with an ear to the Oval Office.

Need to get back to six party talks with North Korea involving all the key players - China, US, Sth Korea, Russia & Japan.

If you try to match madness with madness the only result is misery.

Trump's erratic style, (irrationality), is indeed a deterrent. Adversaries are aware of this, and will probably not initiate armed conflict. The sensible adversaries ought to hold their cards and check to what extent Trump diminishes American exceptionalism, damages its economic foundation domestically, thwarts its social progressiveness and generally sullies her capitalist constitutional democratic ideals.
Which is what the Kim regime will do, (along with robust Trump trolling, which everyone is now doing.)
My view is that Trump will feel the need to deflect from the burgeoning Mueller obstruction imbroglio, and he believes military stuff is cool and popular with his base. His browny points have all come this way, except Gorsuch to the SC. Dropping bombs and making threats is what he sees as his strength. He doesn't understand the nuance or complexity. He will want to nuke them... without a doubt.
This notion of armed conflict, nuclear or conventional, can't really be considered. The Americans may ponder, but the regional players have everything to lose here. It'd be a hole in one if Kim got a shot to LA, and what's a Guam anyway? But a vaporized Seoul is different.
This is when it gets serious, as Pence rides in on the white horse.
Conflict averted. Adam and Eve for all. Rah.

 

[Spirit Level]

What happens if NK actually strike Guam?

Do cool heads prevail?

 

[yebiga]

NK want security with a treaty which provides them guarantees from US led cabal.

The nutters on the US side will not give them that - they've refused for 6 decades.

Trump no doubt would love a treaty to look like a hero on the world stage. The only way that can happen is at the very brink of hostilities. When public opinion and fear sends the warmongers to face the corner.

The trouble is if you bring something to the brink - you can lose control - and it overflows

 

[Pykie]

What happens if NK actually strike Guam?

Do cool heads prevail?

Are you kidding?

The return strike would already be in the air before the NK one landed.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Are you kidding?

The return strike would already be in the air before the NK one landed.

"Proportionate response" has not been a concept subscribed to very widely among the US military or politicians.

Ever.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Will the upcoming nuclear holocaust with North Korea be on free to air or will you need Foxtel?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Will the upcoming nuclear holocaust with North Korea be on free to air or will you need Foxtel?

Just dont download it from pirate bay. That makes baby jesus cry.


Baby jesus has no issue with nukes though, been confirmed bible says trump is doing gods work if he nukes people. Illegal downloads however is serious s**t

 

[FredLeDeux]

Will the upcoming nuclear holocaust with North Korea be on free to air or will you need Foxtel?

AFL Dead

 

[Elroo]

What happens if NK actually strike Guam?

Do cool heads prevail?

They may launch their missiles at Guam but the US will destroy them mid flight, the return from the US however will likely lead to a resumption of the war with NK.

 

[Taylor]

The US missile defence has a released effectiveness of 50%, and how they love to talk up their capabilities.

Three missiles shot at Guam, at least one is going to hit the target.

But that isn't why a nation develops ICBM nuclear weapons. Until a small nation, that doesn't play ball with how the rest want the world to work, has nuclear weapons that can hit any target on the planet all the world can bully the small nation.

Watch how the dialogue shifts when they suddenly take them seriously. ICBM nuclear weapons give you a seat at the adult table.

 

[madmug]

The US missile defence has a released effectiveness of 50%, and how they love to talk up their capabilities.

Three missiles shot at Guam, at least one is going to hit the target.

But that isn't why a nation develops ICBM nuclear weapons. Until a small nation, that doesn't play ball with how the rest want the world to work, has nuclear weapons that can hit any target on the planet all the world can bully the small nation.

Watch how the dialogue shifts when they suddenly take them seriously. ICBM nuclear weapons give you a seat at the adult table.

NK has been enabled by China. BUT the real worry right now is Trump using this to wrap himself in the Stars & stripes to distract from the mess he has created & things he wants to hide.

What's a few million deaths to him anyway?

 

[Northalives]

I am very alarmed at how this whole situation is being downplayed by, it seems, everyone: not just the Murdoch garbage and the other garbage "mainstream" "news agencies" but also by the general population. I don't think that people quite realise the extreme danger the whole world finds itself in.

In the early 1960's, the world was confronted by the Cuban Missile Crisis but today's crisis is far, far more serious and considerably more dangerous. Whereas in 1962 we had Nikita Khrushchev and John F. Kennedy as the protagonists, today, we have Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un who have humanity's and the earth's future in their hands. Whereas Khrushchev and Kennedy were intelligent and pragmatic, Trump and Kim are egotistical morons. Khrushchev and Kennedy would never have started a nuclear holocaust but the other two, they're f****ng psychos and it is certainly not beyond them!

Maybe those of you on facebook and who use twitter could make it known that in the event of a nuclear explosion, smart phones and the internet cease to operate. Let me repeat that in bold letters, SMART PHONES AND THE INTERNET CEASE TO OPERATE !! Maybe that may shock the self obsessed and shallow youth into some action because the threat of a nuclear winter certainly isn't causing people much alarm!

Maybe Australians may realise that f**k wits like Turnbull and the other American lackeys that we have in this country, should not make us a target for obliteration without getting our approval first. The disgusting "joined-at-the-hip" statement by our Prime Minister is an affront to all Australians as is the false assertion that the ANZUS Treaty somehow compels us to be come to the aid of the USA AND THEM TO COME TO OUR AID in the event of conflict: IT DOES NOT ! It certainly doesn't compel us to be vaporised because Trump does not have the intellectual capacity to grasp the severity of what is actually going on.

For heaven's sake, the Nuclear Disarmament Movement of the 1980's and 90's all over the world was supposed to have made the world breathe easier, for f**k's sake, even the rabid war mongers Kissinger and Shultz have changed their tune and said that nuclear weapons shouldn't be and here we are, in 2017 and we are back to the 1960's with the exception that now, two complete imbeciles hold the planet's future in their hands and the rest of us it seems, are too busy watching My Kitchen Rules and the Bachelorette to give a toss about nuclear holocaust.

People just don't seem to understand what one nuclear explosion can do, let alone a series of them.

 

[Spirit Level]

The US could vaporise NK without nukes

 

[HairyO]

The US missile defence has a released effectiveness of 50%, and how they love to talk up their capabilities.

Three missiles shot at Guam, at least one is going to hit the target.

But that isn't why a nation develops ICBM nuclear weapons. Until a small nation, that doesn't play ball with how the rest want the world to work, has nuclear weapons that can hit any target on the planet all the world can bully the small nation.

Watch how the dialogue shifts when they suddenly take them seriously. ICBM nuclear weapons give you a seat at the adult table.

So North Korea wipes out Guam and then the US wipes out North Korea.

As much as they are a nutjob country, do you honestly think they will do that?

They have spent 60 years flexing their puny muscles and demanding recognition but now have come up against a nutjob with massive muscles who is sick of their s**t.

The key is that China is also sick of them. So North Korea will quietly back down while claiming a win. And the Trump haters will refuse to acknowledge his win.

 

[Established1870]

US satellites have picked up North Korean missiles being moved, potentially for a strike on Guam.

How is this not being talked about more?

 

[Taylor]

You only know about it because you're supposed to react like that.

News groups don't get access to spy satellite data. This information was given to them for a purpose.

 

[Jack Gun Cyril Stun]

I am very alarmed at how this whole situation is being downplayed by, it seems, everyone: not just the Murdoch garbage and the other garbage "mainstream" "news agencies" but also by the general population. I don't think that people quite realise the extreme danger the whole world finds itself in.

In the early 1960's, the world was confronted by the Cuban Missile Crisis but today's crisis is far, far more serious and considerably more dangerous. Whereas in 1962 we had Nikita Khrushchev and John F. Kennedy as the protagonists, today, we have Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un who have humanity's and the earth's future in their hands. Whereas Khrushchev and Kennedy were intelligent and pragmatic, Trump and Kim are egotistical morons. Khrushchev and Kennedy would never have started a nuclear holocaust but the other two, they're f****ng psychos and it is certainly not beyond them!

Maybe those of you on facebook and who use twitter could make it known that in the event of a nuclear explosion, smart phones and the internet cease to operate. Let me repeat that in bold letters, SMART PHONES AND THE INTERNET CEASE TO OPERATE !! Maybe that may shock the self obsessed and shallow youth into some action because the threat of a nuclear winter certainly isn't causing people much alarm!

Maybe Australians may realise that f**k wits like Turnbull and the other American lackeys that we have in this country, should not make us a target for obliteration without getting our approval first. The disgusting "joined-at-the-hip" statement by our Prime Minister is an affront to all Australians as is the false assertion that the ANZUS Treaty somehow compels us to be come to the aid of the USA AND THEM TO COME TO OUR AID in the event of conflict: IT DOES NOT ! It certainly doesn't compel us to be vaporised because Trump does not have the intellectual capacity to grasp the severity of what is actually going on.

For heaven's sake, the Nuclear Disarmament Movement of the 1980's and 90's all over the world was supposed to have made the world breathe easier, for f**k's sake, even the rabid war mongers Kissinger and Shultz have changed their tune and said that nuclear weapons shouldn't be and here we are, in 2017 and we are back to the 1960's with the exception that now, two complete imbeciles hold the planet's future in their hands and the rest of us it seems, are too busy watching My Kitchen Rules and the Bachelorette to give a toss about nuclear holocaust.

People just don't seem to understand what one nuclear explosion can do, let alone a series of them.

Bookie odds of a NK nuclear strike - write your own ticket and keep watching reality shows as they're more real.
Everyone knows what one nuclear explosion can do and the repercussions that follow - including looney Kim and his NK that wouldn't exist anymore.
Strings being pulled everywhere by many for a range of agendas.
Great distraction from whatever really is going on.

 

[Northalives]

Bookie odds of a NK nuclear strike - write your own ticket and keep watching reality shows as they're more real.
Everyone knows what one nuclear explosion can do and the repercussions that follow - including looney Kim and his NK that wouldn't exist anymore.
Strings being pulled everywhere by many for a range of agendas.
Great distraction from whatever really is going on.

Kim has already detonated a nuclear weapon underground and Trump is a lunatic as well. If you and others like you think there is nothing to worry about, then you are tripping! Kim may not be able to hit mainland USA but he can hit Japan and the f**kwit Trump is liable to do anything.

This is danger time for the world and as far as write your own ticket is concerned, six months ago or so, no worries, now, we've had Trump exhibiting how much of an ignorant bully boy he is and Kim, a spoilt bully boy, has taken the baiting and is up for it.

Everyone knows what one nuclear explosion can do, everyone that is, except f**k wits like Trump and Kim who think that the are invincible. There is the danger: we are not talking about even remotely sane people, we are talking about mentally disturbed people.

Do you know what price the corporates are giving for another Presidential assassination? Trump is even scaring many of those Pentagon Hawks who, as you say, "know(s) what one nuclear explosion can do and the repercussions that follow" because they belong in the "everyone" category, Kim and Trump don't.

 

[Sydneyfan]

Kim Jong-un (and his father and grandfather) have always been primarily concerned with keeping their regime alive with themselves in power. This has meant a lot of bluff, bluster, tantrums and the occasional lash out to barter for what they want, get the concessions they seek, and keep their regime in the limelight all the while keeping their citizens downtrodden in the world's largest prison camp.

Kim Jong-un doesn't want the regime to end, he doesn't want to lose power, he doesn't want to be killed and the regime to end in retaliatory strikes. That's why North Korea will prod, poke, pinch, bite, scratch and push for a fight but ultimately back out before going too far as they know - that whilst that could cause a shitload of damage - they can never win a war against the US.

As such North Korea's ultimate motives are fairly clear - provoke, antagonise and shock the outside world enough to gain further concessions but not enough to start a fight they can never win.

Trump's motives are not as clear, and that is a worry but ultimately despite the rhetoric about the commander-in-chief and President at the head of the chain of command, the US top brass will not blindly follow Trump's orders if they find them to be dangerous, strategically foolish and/or likely to cascade into an unforeseeable chain of events. North Korea is surrounded by four of the World's top 12 economies in Japan, Russia, S Korea & China; Russia and China also being the two main (and opposing) powers behind the US. Any strike on N Korea - fully justified or unjustified- would have large ramifications on the world economy, world peace, and the planet as a whole. China and Russia would not take kindly to any overt action against Pyongyang no matter how large or damaging. The top brass and think tanks in DC know this and would likely veto any shitbrain idea Trump entertains.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Potential nuclear holocaust at play today but lead story Herald Sun website is delays on the Frankston Line.

Is this world crisis real?

 

[Gough]

Potential nuclear holocaust at play today but lead story Herald Sun website is delays on the Frankston Line.

Is this world crisis real?

The crisis is real, it's the Feral Sun that's not.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The crisis is real, it's the Feral Sun that's not.

Meanwhile the Age continues its obsession with property prices as its lead as well as a key story about the Most Common Cooking Mistakes Australians make.

 

[Gough]

Meanwhile the Age continues its obsession with property prices as its lead as well as a key story about the Most Common Cooking Mistakes Australians make.

I take the Oz, but only for the sports, and x word.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Potential nuclear holocaust at play today but lead story Herald Sun website is delays on the Frankston Line.

Is this world crisis real?

yes, dusty still hasnt signed FFS!!!!! who gives a s**t about the Franga line