Club Focus North Melbourne 2021 - Greenwood, Coleman-Jones, Horne-Francis, Goater, Curtis, Bergman, Archer

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Taylor

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Spreadsheet created by Lore and Taylor, using data from footywire and AFL Tables. Version above maintained by giantroo.

To check the draft order see the thread here.


Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."
 
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juss

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Again it’s 3 vs 2
Downgrade pick 1 to pick 6
Move a few spots up on our second rounder to dees first pick

And get a crows first rounder
The Crows first rounder next year is anywhere from 1-5 is the kicker for this. The second rounder you speak of isn't changing the game.
 

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PieLebo87

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381CE249-6EFE-41A6-BEC3-C580D00ACB2A.jpeg

2005 and 2004’s pick 5s were Pendlebury and Buddy.

I’d be taking Adelaide’s offer because then there is also 2 future first rounders to play around with.

It’s a massive risk because JHF is looking like he’ll be a bonafide star, but you can’t possibly go too wrong with pick 5 either and it’s more often a hit than a miss itself, whilst being complimented by those two additional first rounders.

It is absolutely a gamble, but if it pays off, North end up with x3 200 gamers instead of the 1.
 

juss

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The crows would need to find 3 top 10 picks I reckon, this year to get it done. I don't think north need any of their players with pick 4.
Every year the number 1 pick is the highest rated kid. Look back since the year 2000 it probably ends up that way maybe a handful of times. There's a couple of generational players, a bunch of good-very good guns, but a decent fist or more of disappointing players too for various reasons.

The number 1 pick isn't all it's cracked up to be.
 

perplexed

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I think it was a clever offer, but very resistible this year.

If it was 2017 or 2018 you'd grab it and run. But this year Pick 4 looks to be long long way down from pick 1. And all the players rated around that mark are mids, which aren't really a need us - unless they are potential top player in the comp types like JHF who everyone needs.
 
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Every year the number 1 pick is the highest rated kid. Look back since the year 2000 it probably ends up that way maybe a handful of times. There's some generational players, a lot of good-very good guns, but a decent fist of disappointing players too for various reasons.
Agree there's only a handful that have worked out really since 2000. Is it better to get 3 picks in the top 12 as opposed to the number 1 pick. Remember that Jack trengrove had a similar last year in the draft to horne-francis and dusty went 3 and Fyfe 20 in that draft
 

marcus1232

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The last time there was such a public shot at trading for the number 1 pick was the saints when gws offered 4/7/21 I believe.
We said no took
McCartin looking real good now
 

the big lebowski

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It’s an interesting topic, and not just for North and crows supporters obviously.

My opinion

There is not enough visibility in the kids available at pick 4 (6) this year. It’s easy to say that pick 1 rarely turns out to be the best of the draft. But equally, pick 6 rarely turns out to be the best of the draft. You could literally say that of every pick.

If it was 2018 draft, sure we’d probably do it. But the crows would probably not offer it. People talked about the lack of footy impacting the 2020 Vic draftees, and we have similar issues this year, and maybe next year too.

JHF has done more than any other draftee available and has shown more than any draftee in the last 10 years. He might not turn out to be the best, he might get injured, he might want to go home. But with Horne Francis you pretty much know what you’re getting. Woh everyone else, you don’t.

There were rumours a few months back that he was deliberately tanking interviews with North, then it came out he hadn’t spoken to North yet. Now the rumours are he has said he wants to go one, w ate to come to vic. He also been described as very loyal and level headed. I assuming by now, having rejected that very strong offer, that North have spoken to him and factored that into the rejection (they better have).

The other good thing is that he won’t come in needing to do all the heavy lifting. Infact he might not get much midfield time next year. He’ll form an eventual midfield with Simpkin, LDU, Sleevo, Thomas, Powell and Phillips.

That’s 7 first round draft picks. All have shown great promise to date. All under 23.
 

Rusty Beam

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Personally I think if Adelaide orchestrated a swap with GWS (say for 4 and Melbourne’s future first) the deal would have been much more attractive.

Callaghan and a likely top 1-5 future pick would be an incredible trade.
 

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WinstonWolfe

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For simplicity, let's just have a look what you'd prefer between Pick 1 vs Pick 4 & Pick 6 in the same draft from 2014 - 2018 (2019 and beyond are too recent to make a call).


2014 - Even
1. Paddy Mccartin
4. Jarrod Pickett
6. Caleb Marchbank

2015 - 4 & 6 wins
1. Jacob Weitering
4. Clayton Oliver
6. Aaron Francis

2016 - Even
1. Andrew Mcgrath
4. Ben Ainsworth
6. Will Setterfield

2017 - Pick 4 & 6 wins
1. Cameron Rayner
4. LDU
6. Jaidyn Stephenson

2018 - Pick 4 & 6 wins - by a fair margin too...
1. Sam Walsh
4. Max King
6. Ben King

So in the 2014 - 2018 period, pick 1 wins out 0/5 years. And this is before you consider the additional upgrade from future 2nd to future 1st...
The major flaw in all this is assuming every club would take the same selections at 4 and 6. Chances are very unlikely. Best to consider what players where still available after pick 3 in the current draft. The following draft is just a blanket. One of the advantages if you do have 2 top 5 picks is that you can choose a player to fill a specific need and also choose best talent.

FOr instance, if you look at 2017, north may have chosen LDU with 4 (as they did), but added Naughton as well?
 

WinstonWolfe

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It’s an interesting topic, and not just for North and crows supporters obviously.

My opinion

There is not enough visibility in the kids available at pick 4 (6) this year. It’s easy to say that pick 1 rarely turns out to be the best of the draft. But equally, pick 6 rarely turns out to be the best of the draft. You could literally say that of every pick.

If it was 2018 draft, sure we’d probably do it. But the crows would probably not offer it. People talked about the lack of footy impacting the 2020 Vic draftees, and we have similar issues this year, and maybe next year too.

JHF has done more than any other draftee available and has shown more than any draftee in the last 10 years. He might not turn out to be the best, he might get injured, he might want to go home. But with Horne Francis you pretty much know what you’re getting. Woh everyone else, you don’t.

There were rumours a few months back that he was deliberately tanking interviews with North, then it came out he hadn’t spoken to North yet. Now the rumours are he has said he wants to go one, w ate to come to vic. He also been described as very loyal and level headed. I assuming by now, having rejected that very strong offer, that North have spoken to him and factored that into the rejection (they better have).

The other good thing is that he won’t come in needing to do all the heavy lifting. Infact he might not get much midfield time next year. He’ll form an eventual midfield with Simpkin, LDU, Sleevo, Thomas, Powell and Phillips.

That’s 7 first round draft picks. All have shown great promise to date. All under 23.
Not sure about that.
But also a little contradiction here in that JHF had the benefit showing what he can do all year. What if the Vic boys played all year and some jumped out of the pack in the last month or 2? Could easily be that we didn't see the 'best' player in the draft.
 

Prochard123

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The major flaw in all this is assuming every club would take the same selections at 4 and 6. Chances are very unlikely. Best to consider what players where still available after pick 3 in the current draft. The following draft is just a blanket. One of the advantages if you do have 2 top 5 picks is that you can choose a player to fill a specific need and also choose best talent.

FOr instance, if you look at 2017, north may have chosen LDU with 4 (as they did), but added Naughton as well?
I literally said “for simplicity” lol...

It would be impossible to capture who some clubs would’ve hypothetically picked if they had the picks back in time
 

the big lebowski

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Not sure about that.
But also a little contradiction here in that JHF had the benefit showing what he can do all year. What if the Vic boys played all year and some jumped out of the back in the last month or 2? Could easily be that we didn't see the 'best' player in the draft.
Which statement is untrue?

He’s done more than any draftee this year.

He’s shown more (at senior level - admit that I didn’t say that originally) than any other draftee in the last 10 years.

You could argue Logan McDonald last year had a similar senior year, but he didn’t debut and hold his spot in his U17 year.

Re the vic kids not playing, that’s exactly my point, and why the trade isn’t as valuable as if it were in a year when full visibility had occurred.
 

TryAnHit

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Perhaps, it is a matter of opinion. But the Crows are pretty good at identifying talent, and if they are willing to pay that much for a player they have seen a lot of at junior level, it kinda signals something.....it would also mean not only are they going to pay that much but also mostly giving up their plans to get Lukousis or Rankine next year, for one player.
Adel only going after him so hard as he's from SA.. if he was from VIC we wouldn't.... everyone knows we can't hold players
 

juss

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Agree there's only a handful that have worked out really since 2000. Is it better to get 3 picks in the top 12 as opposed to the number 1 pick. Remember that Jack trengrove had a similar last year in the draft to horne-francis and dusty went 3 and Fyfe 20 in that draft
I reckon the data overall would show a better return/outcome on 2x top 5 picks + pick 14-18 for example than just pick 1 over the last 20 years.
 

the Ziebull

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Doesn't really change it much tbh.
Lol
It essentially cancels out 1 part of the trade

anyway we’ve got that 2nd round pick traded out now so if they still want the deal it will be closer to what you are implying

they can give us 3 picks and us not give anything else back other than 1
 

Wild Bill

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The Crows first rounder next year is anywhere from 1-5 is the kicker for this. The second rounder you speak of isn't changing the game.
Most years a team from the bottom 6 makes the 8. If it was the Crows in 2022 then that diluted the offer.
Crows, Roos, Suns, Hawks, Blues or Pies?
 

Sphynx

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Jul 10, 2011
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Doesn't really change it much tbh.
Well it does, it turns the last first rounder into potentially only a few places upgrade.

As has been said ad nauseum, it’s likely net 1 x top 10 pick gain.

Adelaide’s pick is likely to be pick 6 this year, that’s a big difference to #1.

The top end of next year is also compromised, so add another pick onto that one as well.
 

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