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Melbourne's R1 pick in 2022 is likely to be 15-18 and our 2nd will likely be 19-24.
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Every year the number 1 pick is the highest rated kid. Look back since the year 2000 it probably ends up that way maybe a handful of times. There's a couple of generational players, a bunch of good-very good guns, but a decent fist or more of disappointing players too for various reasons.The crows would need to find 3 top 10 picks I reckon, this year to get it done. I don't think north need any of their players with pick 4.
Is that the second that Richmond now have?Melbourne's R1 pick in 2022 is likely to be 15-18 and our 2nd will likely be 19-24.
Is that the second that Richmond now have?
Agree there's only a handful that have worked out really since 2000. Is it better to get 3 picks in the top 12 as opposed to the number 1 pick. Remember that Jack trengrove had a similar last year in the draft to horne-francis and dusty went 3 and Fyfe 20 in that draftEvery year the number 1 pick is the highest rated kid. Look back since the year 2000 it probably ends up that way maybe a handful of times. There's some generational players, a lot of good-very good guns, but a decent fist of disappointing players too for various reasons.
The major flaw in all this is assuming every club would take the same selections at 4 and 6. Chances are very unlikely. Best to consider what players where still available after pick 3 in the current draft. The following draft is just a blanket. One of the advantages if you do have 2 top 5 picks is that you can choose a player to fill a specific need and also choose best talent.For simplicity, let's just have a look what you'd prefer between Pick 1 vs Pick 4 & Pick 6 in the same draft from 2014 - 2018 (2019 and beyond are too recent to make a call).
2014 - Even
1. Paddy Mccartin
4. Jarrod Pickett
6. Caleb Marchbank
2015 - 4 & 6 wins
1. Jacob Weitering
4. Clayton Oliver
6. Aaron Francis
2016 - Even
1. Andrew Mcgrath
4. Ben Ainsworth
6. Will Setterfield
2017 - Pick 4 & 6 wins
1. Cameron Rayner
4. LDU
6. Jaidyn Stephenson
2018 - Pick 4 & 6 wins - by a fair margin too...
1. Sam Walsh
4. Max King
6. Ben King
So in the 2014 - 2018 period, pick 1 wins out 0/5 years. And this is before you consider the additional upgrade from future 2nd to future 1st...
Not sure about that.It’s an interesting topic, and not just for North and crows supporters obviously.
My opinion
There is not enough visibility in the kids available at pick 4 (6) this year. It’s easy to say that pick 1 rarely turns out to be the best of the draft. But equally, pick 6 rarely turns out to be the best of the draft. You could literally say that of every pick.
If it was 2018 draft, sure we’d probably do it. But the crows would probably not offer it. People talked about the lack of footy impacting the 2020 Vic draftees, and we have similar issues this year, and maybe next year too.
JHF has done more than any other draftee available and has shown more than any draftee in the last 10 years. He might not turn out to be the best, he might get injured, he might want to go home. But with Horne Francis you pretty much know what you’re getting. Woh everyone else, you don’t.
There were rumours a few months back that he was deliberately tanking interviews with North, then it came out he hadn’t spoken to North yet. Now the rumours are he has said he wants to go one, w ate to come to vic. He also been described as very loyal and level headed. I assuming by now, having rejected that very strong offer, that North have spoken to him and factored that into the rejection (they better have).
The other good thing is that he won’t come in needing to do all the heavy lifting. Infact he might not get much midfield time next year. He’ll form an eventual midfield with Simpkin, LDU, Sleevo, Thomas, Powell and Phillips.
That’s 7 first round draft picks. All have shown great promise to date. All under 23.
I literally said “for simplicity” lol...The major flaw in all this is assuming every club would take the same selections at 4 and 6. Chances are very unlikely. Best to consider what players where still available after pick 3 in the current draft. The following draft is just a blanket. One of the advantages if you do have 2 top 5 picks is that you can choose a player to fill a specific need and also choose best talent.
FOr instance, if you look at 2017, north may have chosen LDU with 4 (as they did), but added Naughton as well?
Not sure about that.
But also a little contradiction here in that JHF had the benefit showing what he can do all year. What if the Vic boys played all year and some jumped out of the back in the last month or 2? Could easily be that we didn't see the 'best' player in the draft.
Perhaps, it is a matter of opinion. But the Crows are pretty good at identifying talent, and if they are willing to pay that much for a player they have seen a lot of at junior level, it kinda signals something.....it would also mean not only are they going to pay that much but also mostly giving up their plans to get Lukousis or Rankine next year, for one player.
I reckon the data overall would show a better return/outcome on 2x top 5 picks + pick 14-18 for example than just pick 1 over the last 20 years.Agree there's only a handful that have worked out really since 2000. Is it better to get 3 picks in the top 12 as opposed to the number 1 pick. Remember that Jack trengrove had a similar last year in the draft to horne-francis and dusty went 3 and Fyfe 20 in that draft
I reckon the data overall would show a better return/outcome on 2x top 5 picks + pick 14-18 for example than just pick 1 over the last 20 years.
Doesn't really change it much tbh.Again.
You have left out pick 20-25
It really isn’t that hard to understand...
It’s pick 1 & 20-25 vs those mentioned.
LolDoesn't really change it much tbh.
Most years a team from the bottom 6 makes the 8. If it was the Crows in 2022 then that diluted the offer.The Crows first rounder next year is anywhere from 1-5 is the kicker for this. The second rounder you speak of isn't changing the game.
Doesn't really change it much tbh.