Prediction North Melbourne 2021

[GroggSquad]

Destination Tassie. It’s about time it happens. Either that or they fold. The afl can’t keep propping them up forever. At this rate they’ll end up like Fitzroy.

They aren't even in the Top 5 biggest drains on the league.

St Kilda for instance leeched nearly $4 million more than North from the AFL last season....

2019 AFL Distributions:

Gold Coast - $23,696,768
Brisbane - $23,609,188
GWS - $23,234,214
St Kilda - $20,539,315
Port Adelaide - $19,805,849
North Melbourne - $16,918,003
Melbourne - $16,336,739
Western Bulldogs - $16,271,119
Sydney - $14,886,155
Carlton - $14,149,443
Adelaide -$12,676,532
Richmond - $12,505,575
Essendon - $12,079,819
Geelong - $11,841,169
Fremantle - $11,469,122
Collingwood - $11,424,087
Hawthorn - $11,156,622
West Coast - $11,002,504

 

[WaywardSonSon]

Because idiots in the West haven’t moved on. It is low hanging fruit going after North, or any other small team for that matter.

It is like the special needs kid in the back of the class, hey have to have a chance to say something.....

Really very classy from you there. Congratulations on being an ignorant moron!

 

[Tas]

If they trade out Polec, Brown and Higgins etc and assuming they only pick up Aidan Corr and one two more recycled players and or DFAs, and.just load up on kids/draft picks to replace all the experienced players on their list.

I think they can/will be worse than the Crows this year, in fact, a winless season is most certainly possible..

It is always a possibility.

I get what Rhyce Shaw and Brady Rawlings are doing, but they are playing a very dangerous game (esp with membership numbers etc) by cutting their list so deep.

Shaw is the coach, he isn't the list manager.

Rawlings has a tough job, he wasn't brought in from the Eagles so he could just be everyone's friend, he has a job to do and even though it makes me sad about some of the players let go, I do not disagree with any of the decisions. Brown has been offered two contracts that the media have deemed to be above market value, he says he wants to stay but he didn't sign any contract to stay.

We had some "supporters" complain when we let Harvey and Petrie go and didn't match Wells' contract offer by Collingwood. Fair weather supporters come and go, we don't have as many as other clubs thankfully. I wouldn't expect any longer term consequences.

Carlton tried this with Malthouse (but not to the same single season ruthless cull as North this year) and it ended up badly for both MM (and later on Bolton)

Carlton had massive problems long before Malthouse came on board, on and off the field.

Admittedly The Roos had quite a few more talented kids than us at the end of 2014 , they are taking a massive massive gamble this season..

Almost all of their picks this draft need to be home runs and or almost ready to play senior footy in 2021.

I think any rebuild is going to take a number of years, but assuming we do not lose Cunnington, Goldstein or Tarrant and we do get Corr then our team will look something like (before trade/draft):
FB McDonald(25/126) McKay(22/15) Corr(26/98)
HB Atley(28/214) Tarrant(31/164) Perez(19/3)
C Thomas(20/26) Simpkin(22/73) Dumont(25/99)
HF Turner(24/79) Ziebell(29/218) Garner(26/45)
FF Mahony(18/10) Larkey(22/29) Zurhaar(22/44)
F: Goldstein(32/251) Cunnington(29/212) LDU (21/30)
I: Anderson(26/78) Scott(20/17) Walker W.(21/6) Taylor(20/11)

Players I have bolded I think at this stage the club is very optimistic for the long-term, realistically not all will make it and some wont hit whatever potential they had but that is the nature of football and lists evolve over time.

The forward line is probably the youngest/most inexperienced, it is likely to get more so with Comben and Xeri I assume would play next year. If we take a KPF with our first pick I imagine they will play as well as the two best available prospects already did well at SANFL/WAFF level.

That side is about 10 games average off the side we fielded against the Eagles, we also played Hall and Josh Walker against the Eagles.

We have picks 2, 9 and 25 plus whatever we get from Brown, Polec and Higgins (I assume he will go), there seems to be demand for all 3 so we will see. I think the list space will allow us to have a decent look at a number of the midfielders who will get pushed back somewhat by the number of KPP and Ruckmen in this draft, especially with the list size reduction I think having the space will allow us to have a look at a few kids we otherwise wouldn't have. I wouldn't expect them all to make it, you would expect few of the longer shots to make it but if you do well with the early picks then one or two longer shots hitting gold can have a significant impact on the health of the list.

What is important is that we maximise the amount of class we get from the early round picks because I don't think we will be residing at the arse end of the ladder for very long, as much as that will annoy some opposition supporters who had to endure a decade of spoons.

 

[mightymouse75]

They aren't even in the Top 5 biggest drains on the league.

St Kilda for instance leeched nearly $4 million more than North from the AFL last season....

2019 AFL Distributions:

Gold Coast - $23,696,768
Brisbane - $23,609,188
GWS - $23,234,214
St Kilda - $20,539,315
Port Adelaide - $19,805,849
North Melbourne - $16,918,003
Melbourne - $16,336,739
Western Bulldogs - $16,271,119
Sydney - $14,886,155
Carlton - $14,149,443
Adelaide -$12,676,532
Richmond - $12,505,575
Essendon - $12,079,819
Geelong - $11,841,169
Fremantle - $11,469,122
Collingwood - $11,424,087
Hawthorn - $11,156,622
West Coast - $11,002,504

Carlton have slipped since the good old days.
Were they not 1 of the big 4 from Victoria ?

 

[mightymouse75]

If north bottom out big time that is going to effect their financials

 

[GroggSquad]

We had some "supporters" complain when we let Harvey and Petrie go and didn't match Wells' contract offer by Collingwood. Fair weather supporters come and go, we don't have as many as other clubs thankfully. I wouldn't expect any longer term consequences.

Fair enough too - not sure why you have supporters in quotation marks there.

It was a stupid move to delist Brent Harvey - he was the games record holder and the ultimate clubman. These type of careless decisions are culture destroying.

Anyway who will ever know how much longer he could've played now? He was still performing at a very high standard.

The worst thing about the decision is you did it to give youth a shot - but it turned out you had no youth to fill his role.

The ultimate fail and a stain on Brad Scott's tenure there.

 

[pablo668]

I must be missing something here. The talk of clubs folding or relocations to Tassie.
I'm under the impression that the league we have now is the league we are going to have for a while now. Less out of any tradition but more because the teams we have are the product so to speak, as well as the set number of games that are played and shown on TV over a season.

I'd think it would take something awfully drastic for anything to change any time soon as far as the make up of the league is concerned.
Ergo, I'm not seeing the point in this kind of thing entering the conversation, or people getting so snippy about it.

As to North next year, no idea, could be bad, but I think it should at least result in some progress for the future at least. A bit like my club at the moment.
I'm not sold on Shaw as a coach tbh, but I could be wrong.

 

[Tas]

Fair enough too - not sure why you have supporters in quotation marks there.

It was a stupid move to delist Brent Harvey - he was the games record holder and the ultimate clubman. These type of careless decisions are culture destroying.

Anyway who will ever know how much longer he could've played now? He was still performing at a very high standard.

The worst thing about the decision is you did it to give youth a shot - but it turned out you had no youth to fill his role.

The ultimate fail and a stain on Brad Scott's tenure there.

Yeah, he could have gone on for a bit longer, but they can't play forever and it wasn't Scott's call.

If Scott did more to play the younger players as the depth and fringe roles it would have given us more scope to keep Harvey on for a year or two longer but he kept a lot of plodders on for far too long and didn't rejuvenate the list enough over his time. At the time he and others were let go, we had one of the oldest lists in the AFL, fielded one of the oldest teams on a weekly basis and were getting passed by clubs who were turning over youth properly.

The quotation marks is for the type of supporter who chucks it in whenever the club does something they do approve of and come crawling back with their tail between their legs once the team starts winning games again. That makes those type of people fair weather supporters.

 

[Mr north man]

Destination Tassie. It’s about time it happens. Either that or they fold. The afl can’t keep propping them up forever. At this rate they’ll end up like Fitzroy.

Yeah that right remember your an another club that has survived on Pokies and the Vizy board handouts with draft concessions that has got you nowhere in recent times.
So with the economic bad times that we are going thru atm with Corona I’d be very careful what you say about other clubs the pressure your club is under for next year To make finals with your so called list with young list is enormous.

 

[queensberryrules]

If they trade out Polec, Brown and Higgins etc and assuming they only pick up Aidan Corr and one two more recycled players and or DFAs, and.just load up on kids/draft picks to replace all the experienced players on their list.

I think they can/will be worse than the Crows this year, in fact, a winless season is most certainly possible..

I get what Rhyce Shaw and Brady Rawlings are doing, but they are playing a very dangerous game (esp with membership numbers etc) by cutting their list so deep.

Carlton tried this with Malthouse (but not to the same single season ruthless cull as North this year) and it ended up badly for both MM (and later on Bolton)

Admittedly The Roos had quite a few more talented kids than us at the end of 2014 , they are taking a massive massive gamble this season..

Almost all of their picks this draft need to be home runs and or almost ready to play senior footy in 2021.

You can't leave the tumour in. It should have come out 2 years earlier when it was identified. Being very later is worse than late.

 

[Tectonic]

If north bottom out big time that is going to effect their financials

Will it though?
Our attendance and viewership can't get that much lower than it has been, I'd say most members we possess would not be bandwagoners as there hasn't been a bandwagon worthy of hitching onto from arden street for a while.

 

[GroggSquad]

Will it though?
Our attendance and viewership can't get that much lower than it has been, I'd say most members we possess would not be bandwagoners as there hasn't been a bandwagon worthy of hitching onto from arden street for a while.

Very optimistic to assume this I think.

North have always sold their fans hope that they are going to compete for finals each season. Fans have made the effort to attend awkward Sunday games at Docklands with genuine belief North are a chance to win at least.

That's all out the window now - doing a full rebuild is new territory for North and incentive to attend games has never been lower.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

16th.
They're expected to drop, but think the clean out will reinvigorate them.
They'll win 2 early, then 3 late and sit above a couple of teams that never launched

 

[fnerd]

They aren't even in the Top 5 biggest drains on the league.

St Kilda for instance leeched nearly $4 million more than North from the AFL last season....

2019 AFL Distributions:

Gold Coast - $23,696,768
Brisbane - $23,609,188
GWS - $23,234,214
St Kilda - $20,539,315
Port Adelaide - $19,805,849
North Melbourne - $16,918,003
Melbourne - $16,336,739
Western Bulldogs - $16,271,119
Sydney - $14,886,155
Carlton - $14,149,443
Adelaide -$12,676,532
Richmond - $12,505,575
Essendon - $12,079,819
Geelong - $11,841,169
Fremantle - $11,469,122
Collingwood - $11,424,087
Hawthorn - $11,156,622
West Coast - $11,002,504

Both saints and north need to be purged from the league for the betterment of the competition

 

[mightymouse75]

Will it though?
Our attendance and viewership can't get that much lower than it has been, I'd say most members we possess would not be bandwagoners as there hasn't been a bandwagon worthy of hitching onto from arden street for a while.

The old saying it can't get any worse is usually when it does ..

 

[Freomaniac]

LDU could still turn out to be a better player than Rayner & Cerra honestly - he certainly has the tools to be a star.

Kane Cornes bangs on about Carlton choosing Walsh over Rozee, but the real mistake is Brisbane choosing Rayner over Naughton - the Lions would certainly wish they had their time again there.

Rayner is probably the only Number 1 pick bust since Paddy McCartin really - all the others are having a big impact

thats your opinion....

So far. It seems Cerra is better out of those 3 so far as he has had a 30 disposal, 1 goal game.

LDU has had a few 20-25 disposal games.

Cam Rayner has had a lot of 10-15 disposal games. But theres a big difference...

Rayner has had kicked 20 goals and 14 behinds in 2018, then kicks 20 goals and 25 behinds in 2019 then has kicked 15 goals and 7 Behinds in 2020.


I dont think Rayner is a dud looking at those stats. Looks like a solid player to me.

 

[Freomaniac]

Yeah, he could have gone on for a bit longer, but they can't play forever and it wasn't Scott's call.

If Scott did more to play the younger players as the depth and fringe roles it would have given us more scope to keep Harvey on for a year or two longer but he kept a lot of plodders on for far too long and didn't rejuvenate the list enough over his time. At the time he and others were let go, we had one of the oldest lists in the AFL, fielded one of the oldest teams on a weekly basis and were getting passed by clubs who were turning over youth properly.

The quotation marks is for the type of supporter who chucks it in whenever the club does something they do approve of and come crawling back with their tail between their legs once the team starts winning games again. That makes those type of people fair weather supporters.

Looking back at it, I wished the North Board gave Brent "Boomer" harvey one more season. I am not even a North fan, But I would of loved him to play at least 20 more games to make it to 450 games.

 

[Tectonic]

The old saying it can't get any worse is usually when it does ..

Well having looked at attendances over the last 3-4 seasons, there's no real noticable drop between crowds early in the year and crowds later when finals are ruled out for NM.
If we were to lose crowd numbers at worst case it would be around 15% which equates to what, 3,500 or so?
Not ideal but not a disaster.
What matters is what the club does while the numbers are low. If they screw up the next few years then I'd be worried.

 

[Tbonefreo]

It is always a possibility.



Shaw is the coach, he isn't the list manager.

Rawlings has a tough job, he wasn't brought in from the Eagles so he could just be everyone's friend, he has a job to do and even though it makes me sad about some of the players let go, I do not disagree with any of the decisions. Brown has been offered two contracts that the media have deemed to be above market value, he says he wants to stay but he didn't sign any contract to stay.

We had some "supporters" complain when we let Harvey and Petrie go and didn't match Wells' contract offer by Collingwood. Fair weather supporters come and go, we don't have as many as other clubs thankfully. I wouldn't expect any longer term consequences.



Carlton had massive problems long before Malthouse came on board, on and off the field.



I think any rebuild is going to take a number of years, but assuming we do not lose Cunnington, Goldstein or Tarrant and we do get Corr then our team will look something like (before trade/draft):
FB McDonald(25/126) McKay(22/15) Corr(26/98)
HB Atley(28/214) Tarrant(31/164) Perez(19/3)
C Thomas(20/26) Simpkin(22/73) Dumont(25/99)
HF Turner(24/79) Ziebell(29/218) Garner(26/45)
FF Mahony(18/10) Larkey(22/29) Zurhaar(22/44)
F: Goldstein(32/251) Cunnington(29/212) LDU (21/30)
I: Anderson(26/78) Scott(20/17) Walker W.(21/6) Taylor(20/11)

Players I have bolded I think at this stage the club is very optimistic for the long-term, realistically not all will make it and some wont hit whatever potential they had but that is the nature of football and lists evolve over time.

The forward line is probably the youngest/most inexperienced, it is likely to get more so with Comben and Xeri I assume would play next year. If we take a KPF with our first pick I imagine they will play as well as the two best available prospects already did well at SANFL/WAFF level.

That side is about 10 games average off the side we fielded against the Eagles, we also played Hall and Josh Walker against the Eagles.

We have picks 2, 9 and 25 plus whatever we get from Brown, Polec and Higgins (I assume he will go), there seems to be demand for all 3 so we will see. I think the list space will allow us to have a decent look at a number of the midfielders who will get pushed back somewhat by the number of KPP and Ruckmen in this draft, especially with the list size reduction I think having the space will allow us to have a look at a few kids we otherwise wouldn't have. I wouldn't expect them all to make it, you would expect few of the longer shots to make it but if you do well with the early picks then one or two longer shots hitting gold can have a significant impact on the health of the list.

What is important is that we maximise the amount of class we get from the early round picks because I don't think we will be residing at the arse end of the ladder for very long, as much as that will annoy some opposition supporters who had to endure a decade of spoons.

The team doesn't look that bad

 

[no. 4]

I am more fascinated with how they will meet the minimum TPP rather than where they will finish on the ladder. Who will be left on their list earning decent coin?

 

[bungalow_bill]

Both saints and north need to be purged from the league for the betterment of the competition

I really detest this kind of attitude towards clubs with so much history and tradition. Hoping for any club to fold or relocate is lower than a snakes belly IMO

 

[the big lebowski]

LDU has had a few 20-25 disposal games

0 in 2018 (7 games)
2 in 2019 (14 games)
4 in 2020 (9 games)

Remembering that especially this year his time on ground was very low and that he was coming back from OP diagnosed just before the season started.

 

[Foucault1989]

Both saints and north need to be purged from the league for the betterment of the competition

As a Freo fan I'd sit down.

 

[G String]

scorched earth

Get rid of any players over 23 (trade out for 2020 and future draft picks) and empower the young leaders at the club to create their own culture

 

[Freomaniac]

It is always a possibility.



Shaw is the coach, he isn't the list manager.

Rawlings has a tough job, he wasn't brought in from the Eagles so he could just be everyone's friend, he has a job to do and even though it makes me sad about some of the players let go, I do not disagree with any of the decisions. Brown has been offered two contracts that the media have deemed to be above market value, he says he wants to stay but he didn't sign any contract to stay.

We had some "supporters" complain when we let Harvey and Petrie go and didn't match Wells' contract offer by Collingwood. Fair weather supporters come and go, we don't have as many as other clubs thankfully. I wouldn't expect any longer term consequences.



Carlton had massive problems long before Malthouse came on board, on and off the field.



I think any rebuild is going to take a number of years, but assuming we do not lose Cunnington, Goldstein or Tarrant and we do get Corr then our team will look something like (before trade/draft):
FB McDonald(25/126) McKay(22/15) Corr(26/98)
HB Atley(28/214) Tarrant(31/164) Perez(19/3)
C Thomas(20/26) Simpkin(22/73) Dumont(25/99)
HF Turner(24/79) Ziebell(29/218) Garner(26/45)
FF Mahony(18/10) Larkey(22/29) Zurhaar(22/44)
F: Goldstein(32/251) Cunnington(29/212) LDU (21/30)
I: Anderson(26/78) Scott(20/17) Walker W.(21/6) Taylor(20/11)

Players I have bolded I think at this stage the club is very optimistic for the long-term, realistically not all will make it and some wont hit whatever potential they had but that is the nature of football and lists evolve over time.

The forward line is probably the youngest/most inexperienced, it is likely to get more so with Comben and Xeri I assume would play next year. If we take a KPF with our first pick I imagine they will play as well as the two best available prospects already did well at SANFL/WAFF level.

That side is about 10 games average off the side we fielded against the Eagles, we also played Hall and Josh Walker against the Eagles.

We have picks 2, 9 and 25 plus whatever we get from Brown, Polec and Higgins (I assume he will go), there seems to be demand for all 3 so we will see. I think the list space will allow us to have a decent look at a number of the midfielders who will get pushed back somewhat by the number of KPP and Ruckmen in this draft, especially with the list size reduction I think having the space will allow us to have a look at a few kids we otherwise wouldn't have. I wouldn't expect them all to make it, you would expect few of the longer shots to make it but if you do well with the early picks then one or two longer shots hitting gold can have a significant impact on the health of the list.

What is important is that we maximise the amount of class we get from the early round picks because I don't think we will be residing at the arse end of the ladder for very long, as much as that will annoy some opposition supporters who had to endure a decade of spoons.

That best 22 you posted on North, looks like a competitive team.

Saying that, your 2 1st rounders will be chucked in and rotated in that best 22 next season as well