Club Focus North Melbourne

Do they need a priority pick in 2020?

  • Yes

    Votes: 32 26.4%
  • No

    Votes: 75 62.0%
  • Maybe next year

    Votes: 14 11.6%

  • Total voters
    121

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North Melbourne club thread

Taylor

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Spreadsheet created by Lore and Taylor, using data from footywire and AFL Tables. Version above maintained by giantroo.

To check the draft order (updated weekly) see the thread here.

This version is purely based on footywire data. It cannot be manually updated.
 
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Marcel Proust

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I don't think Dusty was as close to join North as you seem to think he was.

Be that as it may, you still have to play under the Salary Cap, and I doubt you could (under the Cap) pay Harry all that much more than what we can/will be.

It's not like the NFL or NBA where one club can massively blow another club's FA offer out of the water.

Besides North currently have a putrid midfield, I doubt Harry would have been much use to your mob with the way your mids and wing players etc butcher the ball.
West Indies?

Dusty was offered $10.5m

Harry will get a far better contract on the table than what carlton is offering.

Would be an excellent addition to the north list and they can continue building the middle with elite draft picks
 

Jugada

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IF Mackay was to decide he wanted to go to North then Carlton are not getting pick one. They would be low balled hard by North knowing they can effectively make a FA type offer with pick 1 in the PSD.

If Mackay accepts a massive offer from North he isn't going to give a sh*t whether Carlton get fair compensation for him. His money would likely only be coming on the proviso that they won't have to give up a lot tradewise.

That's obviously only IF he wants to take up the offer that will be put on the table but there's no scenario where the Blues are getting fair compensation from North in a trade
 

Elmer_Judd

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IF Mackay was to decide he wanted to go to North then Carlton are not getting pick one. They would be low balled hard by North knowing they can effectively make a FA type offer with pick 1 in the PSD.

If Mackay accepts a massive offer from North he isn't going to give a sh*t whether Carlton get fair compensation for him. His money would likely only be coming on the proviso that they won't have to give up a lot tradewise.

That's obviously only IF he wants to take up the offer that will be put on the table but there's no scenario where the Blues are getting fair compensation from North in a trade
Club bias aside, I do worry that North (Least the supporters on this forum) are placing all their eggs in the 5 percent chance Harry will join North basket.

And if that 5 percent chance does happen, it hardly means their rebuild is suddenly all over, they are still minimum 4 years or so after this season to be a chance to play finals anyway.

There is a lot of naivety being played out IMHO.

Absolute no indication at all that Harry will leave Carlton at any rate.

No harm in asking I suppose, but the most probable scenario is Harry will sign a 2 year x 850 ish PA deal which will then take him to restricted free agency.

North fans should not get their hopes up, and also need to start addressing the many other gaps and holes in their list.
 

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Jugada

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Club bias aside, I do worry that North (Least the supporters on this forum) are placing all their eggs in the 5 percent chance Harry will join North basket.

And if that 5 percent chance does happen, it hardly means their rebuild is suddenly all over, they are still minimum 4 years or so after this season to be a chance to play finals anyway.

There is a lot of naivety being played out IMHO.

Absolute no indication at all that Harry will leave Carlton at any rate.

No harm in asking I suppose, but the most probable scenario is Harry will sign a 2 year x 850 ish PA deal which will then take him to restricted free agency.

North fans should not get their hopes up, and also need to start addressing the many other gaps and holes in their list.
Yeah odds definitely in the Blues favour but North need to have a go at a young key forward that fills a big hole in their list and fits their demographic. No guarantees on when any team will or won't be contesting finals next.

Point is though if he did decide to go Carlton are not getting fair compensation from North
 

The Filth Wizard

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Club bias aside, I do worry that North (Least the supporters on this forum) are placing all their eggs in the 5 percent chance Harry will join North basket.
I think you're worried altogether. If North can stitch up a ten year gorilla forward now at a time when there's more money to go around in frontloading then it's the perfect time to do it.

You don't do it for a midfielder but for sure you do it with a 23 year old established forward. Means you eliminate the absolute biggest area of need and then when these kids are hitting 22-23 McKay is 27 in his prime.-
 

The chorus

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Club bias aside, I do worry that North (Least the supporters on this forum) are placing all their eggs in the 5 percent chance Harry will join North basket.

And if that 5 percent chance does happen, it hardly means their rebuild is suddenly all over, they are still minimum 4 years or so after this season to be a chance to play finals anyway.

There is a lot of naivety being played out IMHO.

Absolute no indication at all that Harry will leave Carlton at any rate.

No harm in asking I suppose, but the most probable scenario is Harry will sign a 2 year x 850 ish PA deal which will then take him to restricted free agency.

North fans should not get their hopes up, and also need to start addressing the many other gaps and holes in their list.
I don't think it matters much what north posters on big footy say- they don't make trade decisions. I would be very surprised if our list management people are putting any, let alone all, their eggs in the Harry McKay basket
 

The Filth Wizard

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I don't think it matters much what north posters on big footy say- they don't make trade decisions. I would be very surprised if our list management people are putting any, let alone all, their eggs in the Harry McKay basket
I reckon they'd be slicing up some nice toast soldiers in a flirty way but nothing more, yet.
 

Tas

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I don't think Dusty was as close to join North as you seem to think he was.

Be that as it may, you still have to play under the Salary Cap, and I doubt you could (under the Cap) pay Harry all that much more than what we can/will be.

It's not like the NFL or NBA where one club can massively blow another club's FA offer out of the water.

Besides North currently have a putrid midfield, I doubt Harry would have been much use to your mob with the way your mids and wing players etc butcher the ball.
But Martin’s manager revealed the star Tiger was exceptionally close to becoming a Kangaroo.

“This time last week he was going — or that was the talk,” Carr said on Channel 9’s The Footy Show.

Putrid midfield? Most of our mature mids are injured. Melbourne has a pretty strong midfield and we done them for clearances and broke even with contested possession and LDU wasn't playing, Phillips played mostly up forward. I think the more the group plays together, the better it is starting to perform. We do not have enough mature players around them as we would like, but that is kind of out of our control, we have had a bad run with injuries.

I think for us it is where we are going to be in few years rather than where we are right now. LDU, Phillips, Powell, Thomas, Simpkin, Stephenson, etc is a pretty good starting point. Looks like someone like Sinn or Horne will go number one, or wherever we have our pick. Our midfield is probably the least concern I have going forward, I think it will be a pretty strong midfield in a few years.

I don't know what we can or can't afford but I would assume the only players on overs are Polec, Corr and we probably took all of Stephenson's ridiculous contract to get him for peanuts. I assume Polec's was heavily front-loaded back when we got him. We got rid of most of our mature depth, I think the only players over 25 who aren't in the best 22 are Tyson and Campbell. I think a number of contracts were brought forward to meet the salary cap requirement and we pay the entire cap.

Brown wanted a long-term contract on overs, we said no, let him go. Anderson wanted a long-term contract, said no, gave him two years. I think we have been fairly prudent in terms of not overpaying players but realise we have to pay a premium to attract good players, particularly when we aren't exactly a top performer. We aren't really dishing out the Collingwood-like contracts internally on the back of one good year.

A third of our list are on fixed term draft contracts, you can't really rack up TPP pressure with so many players earning about $100k.

I'd much prefer we didn't have the cap space and we had more players playing to their potential, but if you are near the bottom of the ladder and you do not have a lot of salary cap space you aren't very good at this caper.
 

The 747

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Might be in the minority but I think North are in a decent spot. They are going to suck this year so another year of high picks. Lots of cash to attract players and the PSD is not as unfashionable as it was. On field they are playing well at times, they just can't do it for four quarters. That will come with time.
 

Marcel Proust

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Might be in the minority but I think North are in a decent spot. They are going to suck this year so another year of high picks. Lots of cash to attract players and the PSD is not as unfashionable as it was. On field they are playing well at times, they just can't do it for four quarters. That will come with time.
Should continue building the middle with elite picks (horne) and chase a kpp via PSD/ free agent / trade.
 

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Wild Bill

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I think the Crows will make a run at Horne at season end. Thilthorpe and Horne coming through together would have them very excited.
 

HTPunter

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Don't think we'll get McKay - if he agreed to come to us then of course we should bend Carlton over with the #1 PSD thing - but unlikely to come to that. Carlton will pay him what he asks. They'd let Cripps go before him. They'd move basically anyone bar Walsh and Weitering to keep him I'd say.
Then instead of McKay, I'd look at Weideman who is another obvious player. I'm sure he would be reasonably upbeat at Melbourne considering his last reported contract. I think the Dees would let McDonald go if it came down to it, as the thinking was last year, keeping Weideman who has a long term outlook.

Considering that, outside of value picks (such as Stephenson last year) I'm going to the draft as a North fan.

But to discuss some value picks I've outlined my thoughts:

I'd be quite happy for Stephenson, Scott, Lazzaro to develop as the outside mids and wings. Simpkin and LDU can be outside too.
So Polec could be traded out (end of 2nd round seems about right for his contract - good player in a good team, I can see a contender paying pick 40ish) and Dumont can go as a FA.

But I think I'd like more protection for Powell, Phillips and when they play there, Simpkin and LDU as inside mids. Turner is more of a tagging type with his change of role to midfield, he tackles hard but is a small mid. Cunnington isn't necessarily a longevity type player. Tyson is shithouse and it will be a joke if he is on the list in 2022. Anderson is a good strong body. Pretty light on. (issue number 1).
I'd quite happily take Luke Dunstan who can't get a game at St Kilda just as a senior stopgap for 3 years. He's surely seen the writing on the wall he's not going to get a game at a top 8 side - he could be useful a Hugh Greenwood, Ben Keays type role as the tough body in a developing side. More a Tyson than a Cunnington in terms of inside mid ability, but he'd be useful. Counteract any Dumont FA compo but I'd be happy if we got a pick and Dunstan out of Polec and Dumont. If we wanted to go younger, I'd quite happily look at it Pat Lipinski, who really should ask to leave if Dunkley stays. He's too good to be in and out of the side, the Dogs are the only side where that would happen to him. I just don't think he could be a priority to the Dogs either salary wise. Ed Richards would be another one, although looking at a wing role for him where I think we're more prepared going forward.

Add in a pick 1 mid this year to Powell, Phillips, LDU, Simpkin, Stephenson, Scott, Lazzaro - supported by Cunnington, Anderson, Turner, Dunstan as senior players, there's enough there that surely 1 of the first 5 kicks on to be a star and has an able support cast...

Small defenders look alright with the development of Bonar and Bosu so far this year. Even Young is showing some good signs. They're thrown to the wolves currently but when McDonald, Corr and Tarrant are back, I expect their performance to lift too. Perez is a hopeful but I'm keeping him in mind as a potential player.
I'd phase Atley out. Hall is having a spark but he's not a long term player. Ziebell should go forward when the above guys return.
I'd play a 2022 starting defence of
B: Corr, McKay, McDonald
HB: Bonar, Tarrant (potentially), Hall
With Bosu higher up and Young the depth.

However, we need to look at replacing Tarrant. Ryan Garthwaite at Richmond - now 22 and not yet found a regular spot in the side. Had my eye on him since he got a few games in 2018 and was named emergency in a couple of big Richmond finals, indicating he was close to a game. Balta isn't going anywhere anytime soon, Vlastuin and Broad are only 27 and 28, Grimes and Astbury are closer but say end of 2023 is their time (32 - not ancient for a KD) Garthwaite is 25 by then. I'd be itchy if I was him. Richmond have best 22 players to look after salary wise (Bolton priority - then Baker, McIntosh, Castagna as integral role players and to a lesser extent Riewoldt, Edwards, Astbury who would be accepting declining contracts) I'm not sure they would get into a bidding war on a depth player. He's had some shakiness at AFL level but Richmond have persisted with him on their list, to me shows they have faith in him.
He doesn't have to be Robbie Tarrant - but being the 3rd key after McKay/Corr seems a reasonable role to me.

Then to the forwards and rucks - potentially Xerri and Comben are players but they are projects still, we've had some wins on projects (Goldstein, Brown, McKay tracking) but some losses (Durdin, Daw probably) so can't say just yet.
Very light on outside of that. Goldstein is a workhorse and will be a huge loss when he goes. I think adding in Harry McKay is extremely optimistic. I'd rather target guys who aren't getting a look in and are moveable. Brisbane have great tall stocks in the best 22 - I think they'd be reluctant to part with Conor Ballenden but Tom Fullarton must surely see he's not getting a regular game while McInerney, Daniher, Hipwood, McStay then Ballenden are ahead, and Archie Smith is even further down. One of those 2 or both would see greater opportunities at North.
All 3 are out of contract at the end of 2021. Smith would be more in the Pittonet league of a stop gap, but you need a guy who can at least prevent absolute HTA dominance and reduce it to mere hitout dominance - a middle aged ruck can do that better than a kid. Campbell and Walker aren't quite up to it athletically.
Depending on the return of Preuss, does Matt Flynn want to hang around longer? If I'm Mabior Chol, do I see that Soldo and CCJ are seemingly preferred at Tigerland? Lots of options to snare a value pick - I'd be more interested in Fullarton, Flynn and Chol than Smith but would take Smith for a 2-3 stopgap over Campbell or Walker.
A Fullarton type would help out Larkey greatly.

Small forward wise, Thomas, Zurhaar, Taylor just simply has to turn into something as a combo. Too much time and picks put into that grouping to just see them be so-so. Taylor I'll give a pass on due to timing, Thomas is actually taking steps forward, Zurhaar has stagnated badly. I don't see a future for Mahony and have been quite vocal about that - he had a couple of creative handballs a game but he's too small, slow and his kicking lacks depth. Garner is another to write off.
Will Walker might come on as a flanker, Spicer was a 2nd rounder, Stephenson can go down there - there's been enough invested in the small/medium forwards, we don't need to keep doing it. I don't want to trade or draft for a small or medium forward, I just want the ones we have to take the steps they've shown they're capable of. At best I'd consider putting a rookie spot on someone who can play at AFL level but hasn't quite made it - Tyson Stengle comes to mind - but we have put too much into small forwards so a rookie spot is the max.

Summary:
Out: Tyson, 1 of Walker/Campbell, Garner, Menadue (delist), Polec (trade), Dumont, Atley (FA)

Consider ins:
1-2 of Fullarton, Flynn, Chol and Smith
1 of Lipinski and Dunstan
Garthwaite
Richards

Look at pick 1 as our "star" in rather than trying to coax McKay or Weideman. Will be on a mid most likely.

Then add in pick 20ish, 1 pick around the 40 mark (our third, plus Polec and Atley picks, minus a couple for the trade ins). Garthwaite and Fullarton can take one each, I don't think we'd need to but for arguments sake let's say that. Pick 60 types for Dunstan.

KD: McKay, Corr, Tarrant, Garthwaite, McGuiness
SD: Hall, McDonald, Bonar, Bosu, Young, Perez, Hayden

KF: Larkey, Xerri, Comben, J.Walker
SF: Thomas, Zurhaar, Taylor, W.Walker, Mahony, Ford, Spicer

Ruck: Goldstein, Fullarton
Inside mid: Cunnington, Anderson, Turner, Dunstan, Powell, Phillips
Both: Simpkin, LDU
Outside mid/wing: Stephenson, Scott, Lazzaro, P.Walker

Utility: Ziebell

Italics are players we need to start planning without.
Looking at that, pick 1 goes to a mid. Pqick 20 can go to a key forward/ruck spot as it's a numbers game and even a crapshoot at times with injuries in these young bean poles so if we added another it gives us a strong chance of having 1 of Fullarton, Xerri, Comben and the pick 20ish making it, and then probably do the same with the pick 40 for a KD spot (the thinking being that 1 of Garthwaite, McGuinness, or pick 40 makes it!). Midfield depth is there considering guys like Thomas and McDonald can go through too - it's just time.
 

HTPunter

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Overall - trade out limited older players while they still have a degree of value (pick 45 instead of Aaron Hall/Sam Lloyd tier pick 65 trades) and try to replace them almost directly with underutilized young players who aren't getting the opportunities or salary they could perhaps get, and have a long wait ahead (I.e. Not chasing Collingwoods youngsters, but players at top sides in positions of depth, Brisbane forward/rucks, Richmond defenders, Dogs mids).
 

THE_GUN

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Don't think we'll get McKay - if he agreed to come to us then of course we should bend Carlton over with the #1 PSD thing - but unlikely to come to that. Carlton will pay him what he asks. They'd let Cripps go before him. They'd move basically anyone bar Walsh and Weitering to keep him I'd say.
Then instead of McKay, I'd look at Weideman who is another obvious player. I'm sure he would be reasonably upbeat at Melbourne considering his last reported contract. I think the Dees would let McDonald go if it came down to it, as the thinking was last year, keeping Weideman who has a long term outlook.

Considering that, outside of value picks (such as Stephenson last year) I'm going to the draft as a North fan.

But to discuss some value picks I've outlined my thoughts:

I'd be quite happy for Stephenson, Scott, Lazzaro to develop as the outside mids and wings. Simpkin and LDU can be outside too.
So Polec could be traded out (end of 2nd round seems about right for his contract - good player in a good team, I can see a contender paying pick 40ish) and Dumont can go as a FA.

But I think I'd like more protection for Powell, Phillips and when they play there, Simpkin and LDU as inside mids. Turner is more of a tagging type with his change of role to midfield, he tackles hard but is a small mid. Cunnington isn't necessarily a longevity type player. Tyson is shithouse and it will be a joke if he is on the list in 2022. Anderson is a good strong body. Pretty light on. (issue number 1).
I'd quite happily take Luke Dunstan who can't get a game at St Kilda just as a senior stopgap for 3 years. He's surely seen the writing on the wall he's not going to get a game at a top 8 side - he could be useful a Hugh Greenwood, Ben Keays type role as the tough body in a developing side. More a Tyson than a Cunnington in terms of inside mid ability, but he'd be useful. Counteract any Dumont FA compo but I'd be happy if we got a pick and Dunstan out of Polec and Dumont. If we wanted to go younger, I'd quite happily look at it Pat Lipinski, who really should ask to leave if Dunkley stays. He's too good to be in and out of the side, the Dogs are the only side where that would happen to him. I just don't think he could be a priority to the Dogs either salary wise. Ed Richards would be another one, although looking at a wing role for him where I think we're more prepared going forward.

Add in a pick 1 mid this year to Powell, Phillips, LDU, Simpkin, Stephenson, Scott, Lazzaro - supported by Cunnington, Anderson, Turner, Dunstan as senior players, there's enough there that surely 1 of the first 5 kicks on to be a star and has an able support cast...

Small defenders look alright with the development of Bonar and Bosu so far this year. Even Young is showing some good signs. They're thrown to the wolves currently but when McDonald, Corr and Tarrant are back, I expect their performance to lift too. Perez is a hopeful but I'm keeping him in mind as a potential player.
I'd phase Atley out. Hall is having a spark but he's not a long term player. Ziebell should go forward when the above guys return.
I'd play a 2022 starting defence of
B: Corr, McKay, McDonald
HB: Bonar, Tarrant (potentially), Hall
With Bosu higher up and Young the depth.

However, we need to look at replacing Tarrant. Ryan Garthwaite at Richmond - now 22 and not yet found a regular spot in the side. Had my eye on him sinc
Depending on the return of Preuss, does Matt Flynn want to hang around longer? If I'm Mabior Chol, do I see that Soldo and CCJ are seemingly preferred at Tigerland? Lots of options to snare a value pick - I'd be more interested in Fullarton, Flynn and Ch
Both Garthwaite & Chol are gettable , Richmond would not stand in their way
Chol is also a free agent. 3 x $400k and he will go without waving goodbye
 

Psicosis

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My approach...

Draft:
- As stated by the club, the 2020 & 2021 will see a "draft first" priority
- MSD Pick 1 = Best available
- ND Pick 1 & 20 = Best available
- MSD/ND Needs = Goal kicking midfielder, KPF, elite user HBF, project ruck, small forward
- Psicosis' Best Case Scenario = Edwards (MSD), Horne #1, KPF (Williams) or HBF (Erasmus or Banks) #20, 3rd Round selection best KPF or HBF available

Trade/FA:
- Expecting to target u23 that are fringe looking for more opportunity/OOC/move back to Vic that will not require pick exchanges
- Possible candidates = Flanders (GC), Richards (WBD), Lipinski (WBD), Weightman (WBD), Riccardi (GWS), Brander (WCE)
- In terms of "Big Fish" there is some chat about Kelly obviously, however I'm not overly fussed if it's this year. I'd rather we wait a year and show on-field improvement & the "sell" becomes more difficult.

U23 Best 22 (With Above)
FB - Bonar (22) - McKay (23) - Bosenavulagi (20)
HB - Banks (17) - Young (22) - Richards (21)
C - Stephenson (22) - Simpkin (23) - Powell (19)
FOL - Xerri (22) - Davies-Uniacke (21) - Phillips (19)
HF - Taylor (21) - Comben (19) - Thomas (21)
FF - Zurhaar (22) - Larkey (22) - Horne (17)

IC - Mahoney (19) - Flanders (20) - Scott (20) - Lazarro (19)
EM - Hayden (21) - Spicer (19) - Ford (19) - Walker (19)
 

THE_GUN

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One im interested in is CCJ, gettable or bit harder to get out?
Looks like half the AFL teams are interested in Cj , We want to keep

From an article couple of weeks ago there were few clubs asking the question and GWS apparently had a late 1st offer for him which was declined
Alot has gone wrong for him with the Kebab gate incident and he has cost himself a premiership medal imo as he would have been walk up start with Soldo's injury.
 

THE_GUN

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Bulldogs would jump at that. We desperately need a second competent KPD and the fact he can ruck means Bevo would love him.
Well then they should , I would be 99% confident Richmond would not stand in their way and similar to Butler,Conca,Townsend,Ellis etc would do what ever is required to get them there. Cant see either at Richmond in 2 years time
 

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