Norths list strategy. Genius or disaster?

[Freomaniac]

I cannot believe he has lasted this long.
Absolutely the poison chalice of any assistant coach of all time.

He must be a talent at power points presentations. That 2018 has turned out to be an anomaly.

I dont think 2018 season was an Anomaly for North. I say 2017 was though.

As I have Posted eariler. 2016, North made finals with 12 wins and 10 defeats. 2017, North only got 6 wins when they could of easily got 8-10 wins that season. North got 12 wins in 2018 and 9th. Could of easily of lost in the last round, posted record of 11 wins and 11 defeats and finished 12th behind Essendon, Port and Crows that all got 12 wins each.

2019, North got 10 wins and 12 defeats and 10th. Could of easily taken essendons 8th position. Lost to Hawks and Port by 16 points each. Lost to swans and essendon by 5 points each and Brisbane by 12 points.

 

[tazaa]

I dont think 2018 season was an Anomaly for North. I say 2017 was though.

As I have Posted eariler. 2016, North made finals with 12 wins and 10 defeats. 2017, North only got 6 wins when they could of easily got 8-10 wins that season. North got 12 wins in 2018 and 9th. Could of easily of lost in the last round, posted record of 11 wins and 11 defeats and finished 12th behind Essendon, Port and Crows that all got 12 wins each.

2019, North got 10 wins and 12 defeats and 10th. Could of easily taken essendons 8th position. Lost to Hawks and Port by 16 points each. Lost to swans and essendon by 5 points each and Brisbane by 12 points.

Was referring to Melbournes season

 

[The Warlord]

Some major overstating of potential financial impact of a rebuild going on. It isn't 2007 anymore.

I'd say underrating of the young talent on the list.

Most important things are Rawlings footy Dept management and the fact that Shaw appears to be able to quickly develop young players.

He needs a high quality senior assistant.

Brady sacking his brother is kind of terrifyingly hilarious in that regard.

 

[Damon_3388]

Saying that this change could be a "disaster" implies that there's some recent success achieved by their previous path.

This is the 4th straight season the Roos have missed the finals, including two bottom-four finishes. Their last finals win was in 2015. They have a 48.43% win rate, and 102.60 scoring percentage over the past decade. They've been bad for a while, and mediocre on average for too long with the "little club that can't afford to bottom out" approach.

The current list clearly isn't working, so they need to try something else. It's not going to affect their bottom line any more or less than ongoing irrelevance. The league isn't going to allow them (or any other club) to move or die in the near future, and there's no great conspiracy to kill the Roos off.

 

[Swallow_Wood]

Some major overstating of potential financial impact of a rebuild going on. It isn't 2007 anymore.

I'd say underrating of the young talent on the list.

Most important things are Rawlings footy Dept management and the fact that Shaw appears to be able to quickly develop young players.

He needs a high quality senior assistant.

Brady sacking his brother is kind of terrifyingly hilarious in that regard.

And in comes John Blakey.

 

[The Warlord]

Blakey an excellent appointment

 

[Freomaniac]

Was referring to Melbournes season

Ah ok.... I was thinking you thought Norths 2018 season was a bad season lol

 

[tazaa]

Ah ok.... I was thinking you thought Norths 2018 season was a bad season lol

Once Jacobs got injured it was.

 

[The City Boyz]

With no crowds or at best capped crowds in 2021 and already being TV poison it makes sense to take the pain now. That a clickbait-driven AFL media isn’t pedalling North folding or relocating in this environment, after pedalling for a decade in better times, is more or less proof that HQ has guaranteed their future and that this year, next and the one after is more or less a mulligan.

If North’s list and performances were this bad in a non-covid season the wolves would be at their door. Maybe it’s a sign of the club’s decline in relevance that even the spectre of folding won’t move the meter.

Without wanting to go too far off topic, word coming from the Oxford vaccine suggests otherwise to no/capped crowds next year

 

[Rad Roo]

To answer this let's look at the history events in other fields. If stalin didn't purge the ranks, zhukov would never have made it as the marshal hence WW2 eatern front might be a completely different story. If packers didn't happen and had a mass exodus, aus wouldn't have played steve waugh due to bare cupboard and would never had gotten one of the best in the history. The purge was 20 years in the making. Also the purge to the coaching ranks, got blakey back in fold, dunno how that happened. Perhaps shaw might be a scapegoat in a couple of years corresponding with clarkson finishing up at hawthorn in a few years.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

If stalin didn't purge the ranks, zhukov would never have made it as the marshal hence WW2 eatern front might be a completely different story.

Not sure regimes that had millions of people starve to death due to the incompetence of their leaders is the greatest comparison.

 

[Rad Roo]

Not sure regimes that had millions of people starve to death due to the incompetence of their leaders is the greatest comparison.

Soviet union won the second world war in europe, as to people getting starved to death, not a difference between 1 and 10 million. Stalin once said, if you kill one, you are a murder, if you kill ten million, it's only a statistics.

 

[WillHayward]

Good goalkicking forwards don't grow on trees. There's a reason that most clubs don't part with them, or if they do, its not without a fight.

I understand their want to clean out and almost start over but there are some vacancies that are much easier to fill than others. The gap between elite midfielders and just very good ones is not THAT great. The gap between elite key forwards down to the next tier is huge.

They have Larkey.
Draft McDonald.

They will be ok.

Rather be North than Hawks or Bombers.

 

[WillHayward]

North have already got picks 2, 9 & 25.

Chuck in pick 20-30 for Brown.

Nice place to start a rebuild.

 

[Munro_Mick]

At North - we have a tendency to play it safe.

And so I'm torn then on the Ben Brown front - as I DO like the forward set up with BOTH Brown and Larkey and DON'T like it with just one of them. Brown - after all - is capable of (having done it once) kicking 10 in a game. I still believe that with Brown and Larkey splitting the defence then Zurhaar is twice the player he was this year.

Not many of those going around. IF we return to Marvel then I'd take him every day of the week. He's a genuine Coleman contender.....so....must be better than a Round 3 pick, at least early round 2 (top 20).


I do look at examples of clubs that thrived after moving on 'stars'.....Hawthorn post Franklin; St Kilda post Lockett.

My greatest level of confidence......or.....sense of anticipation for the future - is very much based around quality ball movers such as LDU, SImpkin, Thomas......and Scott....guys who as they grow in confidence are showing a tremendous ability to find space and time. As their endurance improves then their decision making will improve.

But.....who partners Larkey down forward?? Talls take longer to develop. Just imagine Ben Brown with some half decent delivery (kicks to advantage).

 

[MrWoollie]

Rather be North than Hawks or Bombers.

Right now, with the decisions being made and and a real cleanout occurring, I agree with you. Hawthorn are starting to look like they are just muddling along, and as for the Bombers, a real mess. Unhappy players, indifferent recruiting, unknown direction.

Mind you, you're not exactly setting the bar very high here!

 

[Le Grille]

I think let the trade/fa period play out, things might become clearer.

But I’m relatively positive about the changes people see 11 delistings as a huge number but McMillan, Williams probably the best of the bunch (not counting Jacobs who’s head injury forced him out)


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[F_therest]

At North - we have a tendency to play it safe.

And so I'm torn then on the Ben Brown front - as I DO like the forward set up with BOTH Brown and Larkey and DON'T like it with just one of them. Brown - after all - is capable of (having done it once) kicking 10 in a game. I still believe that with Brown and Larkey splitting the defence then Zurhaar is twice the player he was this year.

Not many of those going around. IF we return to Marvel then I'd take him every day of the week. He's a genuine Coleman contender.....so....must be better than a Round 3 pick, at least early round 2 (top 20).


I do look at examples of clubs that thrived after moving on 'stars'.....Hawthorn post Franklin; St Kilda post Lockett.

My greatest level of confidence......or.....sense of anticipation for the future - is very much based around quality ball movers such as LDU, SImpkin, Thomas......and Scott....guys who as they grow in confidence are showing a tremendous ability to find space and time. As their endurance improves then their decision making will improve.

But.....who partners Larkey down forward?? Talls take longer to develop. Just imagine Ben Brown with some half decent delivery (kicks to advantage).

Shocked you guys no longer are offering Brown a contract given his 3 years before this one...seems to be a good clubman too.

Yeah yeah I get people saying he won't be in Norths next premiership side but that's not the only reason you keep players.

Still need some senior bodies and with 11 list cuts already seems unnecessary to push Brown out. As you said he would help take the heat off Larkey...with Daw and Hosie also gone North have next to no key forwards outside Larkey who is only young himself.

And North are truly screwed if he gets injured.

 

[Whisper in the Wind]

Who Wins/Loses/Breaks-even in this trade?

North
Gain: Stephenson + Constable + 2020 1st Round Pick #11 (GEEL)
Lose: Higgins + Brown + 2021 2nd Round Pick

Collingwood
Gain: Brown + 2021 1st Round Pick (GEEL)
Lose: Stephenson + 2020 1st Round Pick #14

Geelong
Gain: Higgins + 2020 1st Round Pick #14 (COLL) + 2021 2nd Round Pick (NTH)
Lose: Constable + 2020 1st Round Pick #11 + 2021 1st Round Pick

2020 Draft
NTH: 2, 9, 11, 25
GEEL: 13, 14, 16, 34
COLL: 35, 39

2021 Draft
NTH: 1st, 3rd
GEEL: 2nd (NTH), 2nd, 3rd
COLL: 1st, 1st (GEEL), 2nd, 3rd

 

[Rad Roo]

On the surface delisting 11 players and shopping around your best forward (Brown) and potentially your best midfielder (Higgins) in a highly compromised draft year seems like a complete disaster.

But if list sizes get cut there will be a lot of delisted players that are upgrades on the current group of vanilla players they have turfed. If they manage to use their first rounders well and pick up a few gems from the delisted crop they will be in a much better position than the start of this year.

Have they timed this cleanout to perfection or are they going to spend a long time at the bottom of the ladder in the near future?

Genius and lunatics are quite often one and the same person. To us listeners, mozart was a genius no? before he became famous, he was probably know as the madman. i can assure you that north is closest to success than anytime since the 1999 flag. Onfield stuff is easy, some brutal list cuts and getting rid off the useless players.

Off field is the real intersting one. The afl now has less money for all, so managing the finance is no longer about maximizing the money but minizing the cost. in other words, the best clubs moving forward are the ones who knows how to be poor and not how to be rich. We north have been cash strapped for years, our operational model is built for the current parsimonious climate.

We will thrive, it's the big big money clubs that will be require to make bigger changes to how they run the club than us. The virus is the great re-setter that we have been waiting for. How can we not achieve success when even god is with us.

 

[Rad Roo]

The various trade scenarios.....

Who cares, a pick here, a player there, these will get sorted out in the market.

With rawlings in charge, we have a ruthless list manager with keenest of eyes and mind.

Possibly will have 3 picks in the 20. Can't go wrong.

The bigger topic is the change of the climate, recession has hit afl, we now have to learn how to live like a povo. You can say our club is designed for situation like this (not by choice but by fortune). The virus has simply allowed all team to take hit and for the first time, levelled the playing field. God truly is fair and great.

As a north supporter, i am the happiest for years.

Mark my words carefully, clarkson at north in 2023, blakey as assistant coach, archer on the board, carey and king in the airwave, all the chess pieces are being moved slowly into position.

 

[Rad Roo]

They are seriously f’ed

They have a coach who is out of ideas after 1 season

If they lose Higgins and move on Brown they literally have 1 good player and he is 33. Their list is the worst in the league by a considerable margin

They have already get low crowds and low interest in their games when they are going well. Imagine how bad it is going to be when they are terrible? This is why they never let their team rebuild properly

Ohhhh, this coming from melbourne? Still trying to make the 8 a decade after i have graduated from uni, what a laugh. You guys are still s**t shince travis johnson was my buddy back in highschool.

 

[Rad Roo]

It's a bold move that in time could well either look like a stroke of genius or a moment of lunacy.

Just hope that if they do end up stuck on the bottom of the ladder for a while as a result there won't be calls for priority picks/compensation. I don't expect North would go asking though because they're not the type of club to do so.

Reminds me a little of the Dogs in 2014, where we looked to be in huge strife after clearing out/losing 12 players including older guys like Griffen, Cooney, Higgins, Williams and Giansiracusa, plus the coach.

History has shown that greatest success often comes after the greatest of turmoil. Nazi germany, soviet russia, red china all had massive upward progress after long periods of failures. During time of turmoil, we need leaders of the strongest wills and the most ruthless of approaches. Germany did very well during hitler's early reign, too bad they opened up too many fronts. Soviet russia because a world power under stalin. Mao paved the way for the modern chinese mentality of 'surpass opponent, you need to subvert the rules'.

Right now we are having a massive purge, if soviet russia didn't purge the military rank, stalin would never have discovered a person called Zhukov. If aus did have an empty cupboard, we would have never played waugh. Bad times build strong leaders who will usher in the good times that would make weak men and thus bring in the bad time again. The cycle continues. I have seen the future.

 

[Ron The Bear]

If Shaw is out of business as mooted, it puts a whole different spin on it. This isn't a job for an untried coach and I'm not sure who the viable candidates are.

North needs to get a whole lot of important decisions right.

 

[GoGeta]

I think it makes sense for North.

They can't attract Marquee players which I think is a key strategy of teams like the Cats trying to constantly rebuild/maintain on the run.
Time will tell if this ''destination'' club stuff works like it does in NBA franchises.

If North are intending to bottom out then hope to build a young cohesive side from the ground up it could well be a 5+ year job.

People pretending like they have zero decent young players is bullshit though. They have a few. bring in some more, build team loyalty, trust, belief and away they go...