Racing November Daily Punt: Bossy and RT bow out

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Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
17,755
22,180
AFL Club
Geelong
Fairly normal railway outside the fave, missing a couple in the mid tier category but that happens when the borders are closed.

I mark him $1.65

Outside the fave there is 3 that have historically gone to railway level at the weights, The Velvet King (now a barrier rogue), Too Close The Sun (1 prep wonder at this stage), Kay Cee (anomaly run last year in the Lee Steere). None of them are in that form or look to be getting back to it, none win.

There is 3 that look like they could improve to that zone in Kissonallforcheeks (1600?), Notorious One, Comfort Me (barrier), everything else outside those 3 $30+

Western Empire has ran to the level required, looks to improve and gets run of the race with the best rider in the state on. It's honestly hard to make a case for the others.
Set to take B365 for a total of $8 on their $10 bonus bet :rainbow:
 

Mazza1234678

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 2, 2017
25,885
14,767
AFL Club
Collingwood
Fairly normal railway outside the fave, missing a couple in the mid tier category but that happens when the borders are closed.

I mark him $1.65

Outside the fave there is 3 that have historically gone to railway level at the weights, The Velvet King (now a barrier rogue), Too Close The Sun (1 prep wonder at this stage), Kay Cee (anomaly run last year in the Lee Steere). None of them are in that form or look to be getting back to it, none win.

There is 3 that look like they could improve to that zone in Kissonallforcheeks (1600?), Notorious One, Comfort Me (barrier), everything else outside those 3 $30+

Western Empire has ran to the level required, looks to improve and gets run of the race with the best rider in the state on. It's honestly hard to make a case for the others.
1.8 looks a spoil

Ticks every box known to man, and there is nothing that looks close to its level in this lot
 

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
16,285
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
1.8 looks a spoil

Ticks every box known to man, and there is nothing that looks close to its level in this lot
It's not that much better than them it's just ridiculously weighted in comparison. Massimo ran similar last start (likely goes backward) but Western Empire is 4.5kg lighter. The Asian Beau is typically a length or 2 worse in depth as it's not WFA, so margins are a bit more blown out and it appears a bit more sexy when it runs away from lesser horses. Happens most years. Winners are just as good just visually always seem better.

Would be interesting race if he were appropriately weighted around that 55-56kg mark.
 

Mazza1234678

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 2, 2017
25,885
14,767
AFL Club
Collingwood
It's not that much better than them it's just ridiculously weighted in comparison. Massimo ran similar last start (likely goes backward) but Western Empire is 4.5kg lighter. The Asian Beau is typically a length or 2 worse in depth as it's not WFA, so margins are a bit more blown out and it appears a bit more sexy when it runs away from lesser horses. Happens most years. Winners are just as good just visually always seem better.

Would be interesting race if he were appropriately weighted around that 55-56kg mark.
Is it just me or is Treasured Star a ludicrously short price in the guineas?

Priced on potential and Pike factor surely

Buzoom and Itsarayday look much better bets at the prices
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
16,285
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Is it just me or is Treasured Star a ludicrously short price in the guineas?

Priced on potential and Pike factor surely

Buzoom and Itsarayday look much better bets at the prices
Treasured Star you have to guess a bit, my guess is 2-2.5L better performance than her 1400m when chopped out and that makes her $3.10 so that 2.50 is a realistic morning price with Pike on and not too surprised by it. If you think she was going to win the Burgess Queen that day, she wins this comprehensively. Buzzoom regressed at 1600 and likely will be behind her Burgess again today as looks genuine sprinter more than miler.

Itsarayday significant risk with the 2 fillies much better than the boys although both have queries. Champagne Dame comes in with stronger last start than any male but probably goes backward slightly, such is the talent gap.

I have them 3.10/4.40/7.50 compared to the 2.50/4.80/4.40
 

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
16,285
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Does Western Empire even have a price?
Still $1.68 on the fair which is reasonable, I don't think we will see much push back until last 30mins if it gets sub 1.55 a few may oppose. I wanted to give it somewhere between 1.50 and 1.65 and there's a fair bit of drinking the kool-aid in that 1.50 so that is probably his rock bottom.
 

Turnover

Premiership Player
May 30, 2015
3,563
4,513
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Liverpool
All the plodders winning today except for the next hareeba. Expect skyman to win in a close finish in the cup.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,654
16,285
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Disappointing Hot Zed went for the carbine club, after its last start I thought I was going to be backing it in a Winterbottom as a $40:1 chance now have to take 2.10 over 1400, bit short for me but should be winning.
 

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