Racing November Daily Punt: Bossy and RT bow out

Remove this Banner Ad

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
44,247
36,244
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
At the prices on offer now and with that gate I’m leaning Wilchino

Could be off and gone
Witchino is utter poison. People falling for the Elite Street profile from last year but forgetting he started 30/1 on the day. Not $4.

Historically it’s been better to draw wide in the winterbottom so the fave has pretty much the perfect draw and can sit three wide in the running line and avoid trouble. Think only one winner in the last decade has drawn under 8.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
17,798
22,206
AFL Club
Geelong
The thing that pisses me off the most about jockeys is them half snagging them when it looks like they are going to be cast three wide no cover. Three wide no cover better than midfield >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> three wide no cover last.
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
44,247
36,244
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
The thing that pisses me off the most about jockeys is them half snagging them when it looks like they are going to be cast three wide no cover. Three wide no cover better than midfield >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> three wide no cover last.
Almost my biggest jockey pet hate. Drives me insane. If you are dragging back at least go all the way back and settle last the fence
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,681
16,306
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Nice enough winterbottom I went Elite Street $3.10, Wilchino $4.10 then a bit of a gap to Red Can at $13 and Graceful Girl at $20 without much conviction. Not really an entertaining betting race with the top 2 probably going to be singled out at unders towards the jump and I probably can change opinion 5 times before the jump on Wilchino. I think you can take a set against Graceful Girl. Barrier, pattern, blinkers first time last week did not work to help her racing pattern. They will be going faster this week so it is hard to say she's going to be anywhere near the front of the field, that said, gets to 1200 and moderate SW'ly wind so not saying she has none but there's a good chance she's the second peters horse past the post. Unlike the railway and this race last year the depth is actually ok so not expecting to see the big margins this week and lack of interstate horses hasn't hurt the field too much. If the top 2 are marginally off there's about 8 winning hopes. Laverrod 4wnc huge SP profile last couple. Red Can 2nd up back to Wolfe will improve, Long Beach nice 3wnc. Cup Night a nice horse. Iseered improving.

I won't be having a bet unless we see some big moves for Elite Street or Wilchino to open up some prices on a winning chance. Best way to make money is probably trade Wilchino on the map, she will divide opinions. If you had to back one now it would be Wilchino she's most likely of all of them to firm on the day and if she drifts she's probably losing anyway.

More excitingly the country champ, one of hardest punting races on metro meets. Prices yet to come out, expecting Scandolo to be short and likely a lay. Series of 1100m horses majority drawn wide should make this a genuine 1200m contest and an absolute lottery.

"SCANDOLO, $4.4" - Leader wide draw pike 1200m hot tempo is a toxic combo for any betting price, these are good lays but is best horse, on way up and best rider I don't want to be too much against him. $2.60 from the corps wouldn't surprise, Stable was confident for the improvement last week so have to trust him to hold.
"WARM 'N' FUZZY, $6.3" - one of the horses scarred by non-claiming apprentices in the lead up/this race. likely won't get the 1200m but jockey change big ++ to find out
"SEMIGEL, $10.9" - Better than most of these
"WHIM CREEK, $12.7" - Weighted well has good historic form away from Kal where he's not at his best
"SIGNIFICANT HERO, $13.3" - wont win many races but in career best form and may get things to suit
"ALCINA, $13.8" - Nice win last start it was a personal best i dont see it repeating but maps ok however non claiming apprentice always risks
"DEVINE BEAST, $14.7" - around the mark and good rider pushes him up the chances in a messy race
"DELAGO DEHERO, $18.4" - wins on last start but thats not him neither was start prior somewhere in the middle but I can't trust him.
"COPPING POINTS, $18.9" - very moderate win last start but improving
"KENDEL'S MEE DAD, $24.7" - classy horse paying for his wins at the weights
"STARAUTHORESS, $35.6" - would be a weak winner and maybe a run short on fitness but can win
"DYNAMITE BAY, $51.9" - consistent...ly not good enough
"REBELLIONAIRE, $57.3" - 2 years ago maybe can be inconsistent though
"KAZKAZI, $88.8" - 700m too short this grade/weight. Basically would be hoping they all cut each other up and they are running on for the day.
"LITTLE PUNGA, $116" - Non claim apprentice, backed it last year at 100s beaten under 2 into 4th still hurts its now 9yo

Disclaimer: Has never found a winner of a country champ over $2.50... could be worse than the apprentices cup.
 
Last edited:

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,681
16,306
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Money Matters any chance? Can’t find a video of its last run.
I was on first up and a touch disappointing and didn’t rate much better 2nd up. It’s hannans was just good enough for this grade in a weak year (long time ago now) but is only a map play if it’s leaderish on the day. Needs to improve and needs luck so mark him 50s

replays
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

AusMC

Debutant
Sep 6, 2015
74
97
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Melbourne Renegades
Hey lads, I have race 1 at Caulfield and race 8 at Rosehill this weekend for my punters club and don't know much - can anyone help me out with a tip?
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
44,247
36,244
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Was all happening there in the first leg of the Quad at Wodonga - the #7 was $14 into $5 before being taken out at the gate. The horse that finished second was the morning line fave and was 3.20 out to 7.00 - looked like going straight past the winner but had its head to the side and jockey refused to ride it out as if it wanted to keep laying in behind the winner
 

juice t

#TheExers
Aug 28, 2012
19,375
30,965
South Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
NE Patriots, Manchester United
Witchino is utter poison. People falling for the Elite Street profile from last year but forgetting he started 30/1 on the day. Not $4.

Historically it’s been better to draw wide in the winterbottom so the fave has pretty much the perfect draw and can sit three wide in the running line and avoid trouble. Think only one winner in the last decade has drawn under 8.
Looked it up Paris and the only winner inside of 8 was Viddora in 2017

Even then, she had Barrier 7
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,681
16,306
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Looks like I am going to be going down with the sinking ship in Triple Missile. Gets a different sort of 1200m to build through his gears more rather than broken by tempo of Wilchino. If he doesn't win today looks a huge tease 1000m horse whom i got wrong. Can save on All Day Session and I understand the desire to be on fave just not that short.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
15,681
16,306
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Two I'll be on e/w and keeping safe for exotics,
Indian Pacific,owes me money and
Stageman,hoping Durant can pull one out of his arse.
Indian Pacific owes us all money and he's not going to be giving it back, ever. I think his leg issues may have got the better of him. Off to wet tracks at Sydney or Melbourne to try resurrect something at a lower level than G1.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad