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FallingLiefs

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Jan 30, 2013
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Exactly - would need to be well BELOW the minimum to be a threat. He is miles outside the handicap. In a fair dinkum race you couldn't have anything outside the top 6.
Again very limited view on OHR from you.

2 of 3 lead races were won by horses way out handicap. 3 of last 4 railway winners won from well outside handicap.

Remember after the race when you said Galaxy Star was way underweighted last year was batting out of her weight division by OHR!
 

Gavin Excell

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Again very limited view on OHR from you.

2 of 3 lead races were won by horses way out handicap. 3 of last 4 railway winners won from well outside handicap.

Remember after the race when you said Galaxy Star was way underweighted last year was batting out of her weight division by OHR!
In terms of being out of its depth- Cockney Crew huge leap
 

FallingLiefs

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In terms of being out of its depth- Cockney Crew huge leap
Can Win.

No idea how well he's going though. If he was set for this he'd be an interesting proposition but with setbacks you can't back him with confidence. Was no surprise to see him go $71-$18-$34 once field opened. I may have him as short as $15 come after barrier draws was only beaten in the last stride in a G2 3 back.
 
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FallingLiefs

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Again very limited view on OHR from you.

2 of 3 lead races were won by horses way out handicap. 3 of last 4 railway winners won from well outside handicap.

Remember after the race when you said Galaxy Star was way underweighted last year was batting out of her weight division by OHR!
Also would love to know what more Regal Power could do to rise his OHR. Dominant autumn 3yo 1 start at 4, the races are not there for him to do it and his rating is a product of the system and lack of stakes races. Just like Scales of Justice winning this by 3L 5.5kg out of handicap.
 

iluvparis

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Again very limited view on OHR from you.

2 of 3 lead races were won by horses way out handicap. 3 of last 4 railway winners won from well outside handicap.

Remember after the race when you said Galaxy Star was way underweighted last year was batting out of her weight division by OHR!
How is it limited - they are OFFICIAL RATINGS with all horses fully exposed. That's why I said if it was a fair dinkum race nothing in the top 6 would be considered.

But this is perf so I expect RP to start $2.50 - win by 5 and you to label it the best 4yo if not horse in the country, have it booked in for an All Star Mile/Everest/Golden Eagle/Cox Plate slot before it never does anything again and you start asking for your GST back.
 

FallingLiefs

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How is it limited - they are OFFICIAL RATINGS with all horses fully exposed. That's why I said if it was a fair dinkum race nothing in the top 6 would be considered.

But this is perf so I expect RP to start $2.50 - win by 5 and you to label it the best 4yo if not horse in the country, have it booked in for an All Star Mile/Everest/Golden Eagle/Cox Plate slot before it never does anything again and you start asking for your GST back.
Unfortunately there are some jurisdictions in Australia that don't see 9yo's share the duties week to week. Eventually you have to consider horses on the up in cheaply at the weights relative to their talents.
 

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iluvparis

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Also would love to know what more Regal Power could do to rise his OHR. Dominant autumn 3yo 1 start at 4, the races are not there for him to do it and his rating is a product of the system and lack of stakes races. Just like Scales of Justice winning this by 3L 5.5kg out of handicap.
Not getting flogged in the Asian Beau by a horse that couldn't get near TVL probably would have seen his OHR go up. But as I said this is perf so I've already told you will what happened. Awful racing jurisdiction.
 

iluvparis

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Unfortunately there are some jurisdictions in Australia that don't see 9yo's share the duties week to week. Eventually you have to consider horses on the up in cheaply at the weights relative to their talents.
Yes in proper handicaps - not ones with such a pathetically high limit. And he isn't cheaply in at the weights - he is massively out of them. One of the worst weighted horses you'll see in a Group 1 all year.
 

iluvparis

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Can Win.

No idea how well he's going though. If he was set for this he'd be an interesting proposition but with setbacks you can't back him with confidence. Was no surprise to see him go $71-$18-$34 once field opened. I may have him as short as $15 come after barrier draws was only beaten in the last stride in a G2 3 back.
The fact you think this is a legitimate winning chance shows what a dogs breakfast it is this year. Looms as the classic horse you will have as absolute poison relative to real contenders.

I guess you'd have Taxagan $5 fave
 

FallingLiefs

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The fact you think this is a legitimate winning chance shows what a dogs breakfast it is this year. Looms as the classic horse you will have as absolute poison relative to real contenders.

I guess you'd have Taxagan $5 fave
Taxagano $90. CC will lead but work hard from drawing that gate just then
 

FallingLiefs

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Alright

Railway Stakes, bit boring as a betting prospect compared to last year. Unfortunately they don't price the fave as massive over most years. No bets yet, Gatting if it drifts really the only thing i'd be interested in.

REGAL POWER , $6.1
GATTING , $7.3
THE VELVET KING , $7.6
SAMIZDAT , $8.2
PERFECT JEWEL , $12.3
TELLEM WE'RE COMIN , $13.9
ACHERNAR STAR , $20.2
COCKNEY CREW , $22.4
STAR EXHIBIT , $23.6
REYKJAVIK , $24.2
BEST OF DAYS (GB) , $28.4
VARIATION , $41.6
MIZLECKI , $49.1
MANOLO BLAHNIQ (NZ) , $53.8
TAMASA , $117.6
PLATOON , $171.4
 

FallingLiefs

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Says a horse can win - prices it $22.

Laughable BOD price - I'll take same of the $28s thanks.
Well if i'm making a book like TAB do at 130% he's $21 or thereabouts. Priced him at -2L+1kg Gatting and a worse map. Sports are 7's out to 11's and he's one i'd be keen to take on on the day if he continues to drift. Non-jumping bleeder who's been up since august and first go Ascot, this is about his 3rd target.

Said I could mark CC as high as 15's if he drew well. He did not.
 

iluvparis

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Well if i'm making a book like TAB do at 130% he's $21 or thereabouts. Priced him at -2L+1kg Gatting and a worse map. Sports are 7's out to 11's and he's one i'd be keen to take on on the day if he continues to drift. Non-jumping bleeder who's been up since august and first go Ascot, this is about his 3rd target.

Said I could mark CC as high as 15's if he drew well. He did not.
15s v 22s is basically just noise - no ones ratings are that accurate - even though I know speed fappers think their ratings are handed to them by god on a platelet and are therefore unquestionable.

To say something 'can win' and then price it $22 with 7 or 8 other runners ahead of it is laughable.
 

FallingLiefs

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15s v 22s is basically just noise - no ones ratings are that accurate - even though I know speed fappers think their ratings are handed to them by god on a platelet and are therefore unquestionable.
zzzzz i will just price everything $10 then because difference is probably just noise for all of them, at least then i can't be wrong because the difference to the winner was just noise.

Thanks for your input though.
 
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iluvparis

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My market (admittedly have never heard of half the horses in the race)

$6 - TVK
$8 - Gatting
$9 - BOD
$10 - Reykjavik
$11 - Archenar Star
$12 - Samizdat
$13 - Regal Power
$14 - Tellem, Variation
$15 - Star Exhibit
$16 - Manolo
$26 - Perfect Jewel
$81 - Mizlecki, Cockney Crew
$101 - Platoon, Tamasa
 

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