NRL 2011

[mattys123]

Eels, 10-0 down approaching half time, welcome to betting on the NRL, thank god the AFL season starts next week.

 

[Byejune]

Panthers +12.5/raiders @ 2.13

looking handy at half time.. might hedge by taking brisbane 1-12 @4.25 have a feeling about them with a few outs for the raiders

 

[little boy]

**** the nrl **** the nrl **** the nrl **** the nrl **** the nrl **** the nrl ****ING CHEATING *****

 

[Byejune]

looking handy at half time.. might hedge by taking brisbane 1-12 @4.25 have a feeling about them with a few outs for the raiders

Where's the reward!!!!!! God damn

tigers to cover the line that's it for a few weeks till the men sort themselves from the boys

 

[dr nick]

Eels, 10-0 down approaching half time, welcome to betting on the NRL, thank god the AFL season starts next week.

Week to week form seems to be a lot more variable in the NRL, particularly with sides like the Roosters, Warriors and Parramatta.

As a rule, if you see odds of over $2.80 whenever those three are involved, take the outsiders, whoever they may be.. even if its Cronulla.

 

[Cruiser23]

Staying off for a few weeks to get a sense of how the season may pan out, wish i had made this choice before last weekend where i went 0 - 2 - 1. No plays this week or for a few weeks to come.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Week to week form seems to be a lot more variable in the NRL, particularly with sides like the Roosters, Warriors and Parramatta.

As a rule, if you see odds of over $2.80 whenever those three are involved, take the outsiders, whoever they may be.. even if its Cronulla.

I've seen an article where backing anything over 4.00 was profitable for the last 3 years in the NRL.

 

[stuziman]

**** the nrl **** the nrl **** the nrl **** the nrl **** the nrl **** the nrl ****ING CHEATING *****

Go to your room little boy!

 

[jefffff34]

Put Penrith in a small multi with Canberra. Disappointing to get the hard part right.

Parramatta are rubbish.

1/2 with first try scorers for a +3 result for the night. Not too bad.

 

[ondoog]

1/10 *

 

[jefffff34]

Wests vs New Zealand 1st Try Scorer
Lote Tuqiri $9 @ Sportsbet
Chris Lawrence $12 @ Sportsbet
Jerome Ropati $13 @ TAB
Krisnan Inu $13 @ TAB
Benji Marshall $17 @ Centrebet
Simon Mannering $41 @ Centrebet

North Queensland vs Newcastle 1st Try Scorer
Akuila Uate $9 @ Sportingbet
Beau Henry $26 @ Sportsbet

South Sydney vs Canterbury 1st Try Scorer
Nathan Merritt $11 @ Sportsbet
Greg Inglis $11 @ Sportingbet
Ben Barba $12 @ Sportingbet
Josh Morris $15 @ Sportsbet (looks as though he may be out, so I'll prob get my money back)
Dylan Farrell $15 @ TAB
Rhys Wesser $17 @ Centrebet

Sydney Roosters vs Manly 1st Try Scorer
Shaun Kenny-Dowell $11 @ Sportingbet
Michael Robertson $13 @ Centrebet
Anthony Minichiello $14 @ Sportingbet
Tony Williams $17 @ Centrebet
Braith Anasta $21 @ Sportingbet
Mitchell Pearce $23 @ Sportsbet

 

[WeninRome]

Nth QLD - 4 looks solid.

 

[jefffff34]

****ing NRL site said Anthony Quinn was out yesterday when I was doing my bets for O'Neill. He would have qualified as well because I tossed up whether or not to leave him in by using the original 17, or using the late mail.

Absolutely filthy, but quietly happy that my spreadsheeting works.

 

[jefffff34]

Quinn was $11, which would have got me +7 units too...

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Hopefully the Storm back off in this 2nd half, or the Titans decides to show up, they're +19.5 in my underdog multi.

 

[mattys123]

It only took a week and a half, but some normality has been resumed.

Tigers and Storm both cover, Storm rather easily, placed a bet on my phone 30 seconds before kick off at the ground on the Storm to cover, 15 minutes later it was all over.

I took the Cowboys to cover too, -5 with Newcastle missing 2 very important players, should be right in FNQ.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

You called normality back too quickly. Newcastle putting a beat down on the cows.

 

[mattys123]

You called normality back too quickly. Newcastle putting a beat down on the cows.

Should have quit while I was ahead (for the weekend).

 

[dr nick]

betting all 8 underdogs this round in match odds (yes even cronulla )

3/5 upsets so far.

 

[dr nick]

I've seen an article where backing anything over 4.00 was profitable for the last 3 years in the NRL.

Funnily enough it's quite rare (unlike the AFL).

St George v Sharks on Monday Night will be the first time in 2011 you could get odds over $4.00 for someone, and thats the raging premiership favourites vs the shoe in wooden spooners.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

9 times last year (2 wins), 71 times in 3 years (18 of them winning). Quite a high strike rate.

 

[dr nick]

71 times in 3 years (18 of them winning). Quite a high strike rate.

1 every 3.9 games

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

betting all 8 underdogs this round in match odds (yes even cronulla )

3/5 upsets so far.

You'd have to think this would eventually be a losing tactic. Any idea if you'll stop betting this way, in say 3 or 4 rounds?

 

[dr nick]

You'd have to think this would eventually be a losing tactic. Any idea if you'll stop betting this way, in say 3 or 4 rounds?

Not sure what you think i'm doing mate, but if you use a simple primary school analysis to place your bets rather than your own skill, logic and intuition to gain a market advantage you'll bleed 5-10% in the betfair markets in the long run.

I form my market before I look at the odds. It so happens that all the underdogs this week were more inflated than my own assessment. Eg: Souths I had at $2.10 but got them at $2.50. I assessed Melbourne at $1.72 but they were paying $1.55. Next week they'll be even shorter v the Cowboys.

Last week I had 5 underdogs, and there were 4 upsets. I wasn't on all 4.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Not sure what you think i'm doing mate, but if you use a simple primary school analysis to place your bets rather than your own skill, logic and intuition to gain a market advantage you'll bleed 5-10% in the betfair markets in the long run.

I form my market before I look at the odds. It so happens that all the underdogs this week were more inflated than my own assessment. Eg: Souths I had at $2.10 but got them at $2.50. I assessed Melbourne at $1.72 but they were paying $1.55. Next week they'll be even shorter v the Cowboys.

Last week I had 5 underdogs, and there were 4 upsets. I wasn't on all 4.

Mate, thanks for the lesson. You posted that you were betting on all 8 dogs this week, with no extra info, so for me to assume that was your thing isn't that much of a stretch.

Good luck with your professional betting, must be good to be able to live off it.