Remove this Banner Ad

NRL 2011

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Byejune said:
looking handy at half time.. might hedge by taking brisbane 1-12 @4.25 have a feeling about them with a few outs for the raiders
Click to expand...

Where's the reward!!!!!! God damn

tigers to cover the line that's it for a few weeks till the men sort themselves from the boys
 

Log in to remove this Banner Ad

mattys123 said:
Eels, 10-0 down approaching half time, welcome to betting on the NRL, thank god the AFL season starts next week.:(
Click to expand...

Week to week form seems to be a lot more variable in the NRL, particularly with sides like the Roosters, Warriors and Parramatta.

As a rule, if you see odds of over $2.80 whenever those three are involved, take the outsiders, whoever they may be.. even if its Cronulla.
 
Staying off for a few weeks to get a sense of how the season may pan out, wish i had made this choice before last weekend where i went 0 - 2 - 1. No plays this week or for a few weeks to come.
 
dr nick said:
Week to week form seems to be a lot more variable in the NRL, particularly with sides like the Roosters, Warriors and Parramatta.

As a rule, if you see odds of over $2.80 whenever those three are involved, take the outsiders, whoever they may be.. even if its Cronulla.
Click to expand...

I've seen an article where backing anything over 4.00 was profitable for the last 3 years in the NRL.
 
Put Penrith in a small multi with Canberra. Disappointing to get the hard part right.

Parramatta are rubbish.

1/2 with first try scorers for a +3 result for the night. Not too bad.
 
Wests vs New Zealand 1st Try Scorer
Lote Tuqiri $9 @ Sportsbet
Chris Lawrence $12 @ Sportsbet
Jerome Ropati $13 @ TAB
Krisnan Inu $13 @ TAB
Benji Marshall $17 @ Centrebet
Simon Mannering $41 @ Centrebet

North Queensland vs Newcastle 1st Try Scorer
Akuila Uate $9 @ Sportingbet
Beau Henry $26 @ Sportsbet

South Sydney vs Canterbury 1st Try Scorer
Nathan Merritt $11 @ Sportsbet
Greg Inglis $11 @ Sportingbet
Ben Barba $12 @ Sportingbet
Josh Morris $15 @ Sportsbet (looks as though he may be out, so I'll prob get my money back)
Dylan Farrell $15 @ TAB
Rhys Wesser $17 @ Centrebet

Sydney Roosters vs Manly 1st Try Scorer
Shaun Kenny-Dowell $11 @ Sportingbet
Michael Robertson $13 @ Centrebet
Anthony Minichiello $14 @ Sportingbet
Tony Williams $17 @ Centrebet
Braith Anasta $21 @ Sportingbet
Mitchell Pearce $23 @ Sportsbet
 
****ing NRL site said Anthony Quinn was out yesterday when I was doing my bets for O'Neill. He would have qualified as well because I tossed up whether or not to leave him in by using the original 17, or using the late mail.

Absolutely filthy, but quietly happy that my spreadsheeting works.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Hopefully the Storm back off in this 2nd half, or the Titans decides to show up, they're +19.5 in my underdog multi.
 
It only took a week and a half, but some normality has been resumed.

Tigers and Storm both cover, Storm rather easily, placed a bet on my phone 30 seconds before kick off at the ground on the Storm to cover, 15 minutes later it was all over.:thumbsu:

I took the Cowboys to cover too, -5 with Newcastle missing 2 very important players, should be right in FNQ.
 
You called normality back too quickly. Newcastle putting a beat down on the cows.
 

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Rooster Cogburn said:
I've seen an article where backing anything over 4.00 was profitable for the last 3 years in the NRL.
Click to expand...

Funnily enough it's quite rare (unlike the AFL).

St George v Sharks on Monday Night will be the first time in 2011 you could get odds over $4.00 for someone, and thats the raging premiership favourites vs the shoe in wooden spooners.
 
9 times last year (2 wins), 71 times in 3 years (18 of them winning). Quite a high strike rate.
 
dr nick said:
betting all 8 underdogs this round in match odds (yes even cronulla :o)

3/5 upsets so far.
Click to expand...

You'd have to think this would eventually be a losing tactic. Any idea if you'll stop betting this way, in say 3 or 4 rounds?
 
Rooster Cogburn said:
You'd have to think this would eventually be a losing tactic. Any idea if you'll stop betting this way, in say 3 or 4 rounds?
Click to expand...

Not sure what you think i'm doing mate, but if you use a simple primary school analysis to place your bets rather than your own skill, logic and intuition to gain a market advantage you'll bleed 5-10% in the betfair markets in the long run.

I form my market before I look at the odds. It so happens that all the underdogs this week were more inflated than my own assessment. Eg: Souths I had at $2.10 but got them at $2.50. I assessed Melbourne at $1.72 but they were paying $1.55. Next week they'll be even shorter v the Cowboys.

Last week I had 5 underdogs, and there were 4 upsets. I wasn't on all 4.
 
dr nick said:
Not sure what you think i'm doing mate, but if you use a simple primary school analysis to place your bets rather than your own skill, logic and intuition to gain a market advantage you'll bleed 5-10% in the betfair markets in the long run.

I form my market before I look at the odds. It so happens that all the underdogs this week were more inflated than my own assessment. Eg: Souths I had at $2.10 but got them at $2.50. I assessed Melbourne at $1.72 but they were paying $1.55. Next week they'll be even shorter v the Cowboys.

Last week I had 5 underdogs, and there were 4 upsets. I wasn't on all 4.
Click to expand...

Mate, thanks for the lesson. You posted that you were betting on all 8 dogs this week, with no extra info, so for me to assume that was your thing isn't that much of a stretch.

Good luck with your professional betting, must be good to be able to live off it.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Similar threads

pacemaker
NRL 2025 🏉
2
Replies
31
Views
2K
mikey127
M

Remove this Banner Ad

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top Bottom