NRL 2021

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juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
23,787
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If the squiggle has taught us anything it's that humans severely underrate when good teams absolutely flog bad teams - that is actually the biggest indicator of a good side. I'll be on the roosters.
Fair point, of course they might still win, I just reckon the value is with the Souths, I just need that 1 more point at the line to make it an even 4.5
 

Nuggetz

Team Captain
Jan 4, 2021
394
327
AFL Club
Sydney
Radley out for roosters. Souths pretty much full-length and I'm still not sold on the roosters halves combo/spine. Backing souths tonight.

Manly is atrocious so im backing dragons win 13+. Had a good win last week and manly have nothing apart from dce. Manly unders too.
 

LukeParkerno1

Post-Human
Sep 23, 2005
128,072
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Radley out for roosters. Souths pretty much full-length and I'm still not sold on the roosters halves combo/spine. Backing souths tonight.

Manly is atrocious so im backing dragons win 13+. Had a good win last week and manly have nothing apart from dce. Manly unders too.
Dragons aren’t much better but Manly is the safe bet
 

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juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
23,787
30,532
Melbourne
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I've had a bad losing round of about 4-5u. The Raiders were tied to a couple of multies and then I started chasing. Not a good round 3.
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
6,433
2,397
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
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Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
NRL Round 4:

Manly 7.50 v 1.09 Penrith
Bulldogs 8.50 v 1.07 South Sydney
Storm 1.07 v 8.50 Broncos
Cronulla 1.38 v 3.05 Cowboys
Titans 2.35 v 1.60 Raiders
Knights 1.42 v 2.90 Dragons
Roosters 1.48 v 2.65 Warriors
Tigers 3.60 v 1.29 Eels
 

LukeParkerno1

Post-Human
Sep 23, 2005
128,072
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Betting Strategies and Tips

Manly 7.50 v 1.09 Penrith
- Waste of time 13+ is the play even at $1.20 odd

Bulldogs 8.50 v 1.07 South Sydney
- This will be ugly, if there is a 30+ market i'll have a small play.

Storm 1.07 v 8.50 Broncos
- Storm by 50+ waste of time.

Cronulla 1.38 v 3.05 Cowboys
- Cowboys are abysmal, Cronulla are bad they aint Cowboys bad. $1.38 is overs.

Titans 2.35 v 1.60 Raiders
- Titans should be favourites. How are the Raiders favourites jeez! They did just choke their match last weekend!

Knights 1.42 v 2.90 Dragons
- Another game I like the outsiders, Dragons look a nice bet this game especially with the line.

Roosters 1.48 v 2.65 Warriors
- Warriors at the line for me, but I'll hold off on this tip until I see the teams.

Tigers 3.60 v 1.29 Eels
- Eels should be too strong BUT Tigers were much better last week. 1-12 is the play.
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
23,787
30,532
Melbourne
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Richmond
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New York Jets
Betting Strategies and Tips

Manly 7.50 v 1.09 Penrith
- Waste of time 13+ is the play even at $1.20 odd

Bulldogs 8.50 v 1.07 South Sydney
- This will be ugly, if there is a 30+ market i'll have a small play.

Storm 1.07 v 8.50 Broncos
- Storm by 50+ waste of time.

Cronulla 1.38 v 3.05 Cowboys
- Cowboys are abysmal, Cronulla are bad they aint Cowboys bad. $1.38 is overs.

Titans 2.35 v 1.60 Raiders
- Titans should be favourites. How are the Raiders favourites jeez! They did just choke their match last weekend!

Knights 1.42 v 2.90 Dragons
- Another game I like the outsiders, Dragons look a nice bet this game especially with the line.

Roosters 1.48 v 2.65 Warriors
- Warriors at the line for me, but I'll hold off on this tip until I see the teams.

Tigers 3.60 v 1.29 Eels
- Eels should be too strong BUT Tigers were much better last week. 1-12 is the play.
The first 3 games are not worth touching individually for me, even at big margins that they will likely be. Backing -20 point lines is generally not a play I'd like to make. They might be helpful plays as added juice to other bets however, given they look pretty certain to increase odds on other markets.

H2H, there's not a lot I can see jumping out as a good bet. By gametime, perhaps the Titans/Raiders might have some value depending on how the odds/lines go. Same with Roosters/Warriors.

Storm, Panthers, Bunnies, Sharks and Western Bulldogs in the AFL will basically double your money. Can't see it losing, but 5 leg multies are playing with fire....
 

Islanda22

Club Legend
Feb 11, 2014
1,033
467
Australia
AFL Club
Melbourne
Betting Strategies and Tips

Manly 7.50 v 1.09 Penrith
- Waste of time 13+ is the play even at $1.20 odd (Penrith haven't been fantastic but the Sea Eagles are terrible. Look at the Penrith total tries markets for value)

Bulldogs 8.50 v 1.07 South Sydney
- This will be ugly, if there is a 30+ market i'll have a small play. (Souths are true favs for 2021 and should have a field day against Bulldogs. Again look at the Souths total tries markets for value)

Storm 1.07 v 8.50 Broncos
- Storm by 50+ waste of time. (Actually love the Bronx line of 20.5. Haas is a huge addiction to the pack)

Cronulla 1.38 v 3.05 Cowboys
- Cowboys are abysmal, Cronulla are bad they aint Cowboys bad. $1.38 is overs. (Won't go near this game, toss a coin)

Titans 2.35 v 1.60 Raiders
- Titans should be favourites. How are the Raiders favourites jeez! They did just choke their match last weekend! (I agree with you here, depending on where the game is moved i think GC has great value at the line)

Knights 1.42 v 2.90 Dragons
- Another game I like the outsiders, Dragons look a nice bet this game especially with the line. (Knights are a hit and miss at times and i am very careful betting on any game they play. Dragons could possibly get the line but not confident. Maybe both teams under 12.5)

Roosters 1.48 v 2.65 Warriors
- Warriors at the line for me, but I'll hold off on this tip until I see the teams. (Got a feeling this is the game Roosters get back into form with a big win. Warriors were very lucky last week v depleted Raiders and had some calls go there way)

Tigers 3.60 v 1.29 Eels
- Eels should be too strong BUT Tigers were much better last week. 1-12 is the play. (Demoting Joey Leilua proved masterclass last week for Wests. At home i think they cover the line)
My best:
Broncos +20.5
Wests +10.5
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
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My best:
Broncos +20.5
Wests +10.5
Take the Storm on at your peril. Storm have been knocked around a bit with injury recently but now back at home after 2 losses Bellamy will have them bouncing back hard and they could easily put on 40+ and cover.

Tigers at home with 10.5 isn't the worst though. Home dogs with big lines are quite often good plays.
 

Islanda22

Club Legend
Feb 11, 2014
1,033
467
Australia
AFL Club
Melbourne
Take the Storm on at your peril. Storm have been knocked around a bit with injury recently but now back at home after 2 losses Bellamy will have them bouncing back hard and they could easily put on 40+ and cover.

Tigers at home with 10.5 isn't the worst though. Home dogs with big lines are quite often good plays.
Bronx haven't been too bad before last weeks game.

Had a huge lead v Eels and folded, Played poor in the first half v GC but finished well.

If they score 2 - 3 tries i think they cover.

Melb 28 - 12 Bris
 

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LukeParkerno1

Post-Human
Sep 23, 2005
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Bronx haven't been too bad before last weeks game.

Had a huge lead v Eels and folded, Played poor in the first half v GC but finished well.

If they score 2 - 3 tries i think they cover.

Melb 28 - 12 Bris
They aren’t scoring 12 though and Melbourne are more likely to score 50 than 28!
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
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Thoughts on Warriors keeping it close today? Either Warriors +line, Roosters 1-12 or either team under 12.5?

Just have a good feeling with NZ.
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
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Some early thoughts,
Souths, Warriors, Storm, Tigers will double your money in a multi.

South's I think can cover -20.5 against the Broncos

Honestly there's a lot of short, comfortable favourites this week, it could be the week for half a dozen different multies of just H2H bets.
 

LukeParkerno1

Post-Human
Sep 23, 2005
128,072
51,375
Sydney
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Some early thoughts,
Souths, Warriors, Storm, Tigers will double your money in a multi.

South's I think can cover -20.5 against the Broncos

Honestly there's a lot of short, comfortable favourites this week, it could be the week for half a dozen different multies of just H2H bets.
Not going near the Tigers, probably a game they lose. Titans are easy money this week.

Best value is the Dragons.
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
6,433
2,397
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
NRL Round 5
South Sydney 1.07 v 8.50 Broncos | South Sydney -21.5 pt line $1.90 v $1.90 Brisbane +21.5 pt line
Warriors 1.35 v 3.20 Manly | Warriors -8 pt line $1.90 v $1.90 Manly +8 pt line
Panthers 1.42 v 2.85 Canberra | Panthers -7.5 pt line $1.90 v $1.90 Canberra +7.5 pt line
Titans 1.32 v 3.40 Newcastle | Titans -10.5 pt line $1.90 v $1.90 Newcastle +10.5 pt line
Bulldogs $11 v $1.04 Melbourne | Bulldogs +27.5 pt line $1.90 v $1.90 Storm -27.5 pt line
Roosters $1.40 v $2.95 Sharks | Roosters -6.5 pt line $1.90 v $1.90 Sharks +6.5 pt line
Tigers $1.34 v $3.30 Cowboys | Tigers -9.5 pt line $1.90 v $1.90 Cowboys +9.5 pt line
Eels $1.28 v $3.70 Dragons | Eels -9.5 pt line $1.90 v $1.90 Dragons +9.5 pt line
 

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