NRL 2021

[NYRB]

I thought I would create a thread for the upcoming NRL Season. It kicks off with the Charity Shield tonight

St George 6.20, Draw 24, South Sydney 1.23

TopSport Line

St George +10.5 pts $1.98 v $1.88 South Sydney

 

[iluvparis]

Broncos wooden spoon at $5 looks a nice bet

 

[NYRB]

Outright Odds in 2021:

Panthers $5
South Sydney 5.50
Roosters 6
Storm 6.50
Raiders 11
Eels 14
Titans 16
Manly, Newcastle 21
Cowboys, Warriors 26
Cronulla 29
Tigers 41
Broncos, Dragons, Bulldogs 51

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Souths should be half that price

Value might be Newcastle but they are so tough to catch.

 

[NYRB]

To Make The Top 8:

Penrith 1.10
Souths 1.12
Storm, Roosters 1.18
Raiders 1.42
Eels, Titans 1.75
Manly, Newcastle 2.00
Warriors 2.50
Cowboys 2.60
Cronulla 3
Bulldogs, Tigers 3.50
Dragons 3.75
Broncos 4.00

 

[Nuggetz]

To Make The Top 8:

Penrith 1.10
Souths 1.12
Storm, Roosters 1.18
Raiders 1.42
Eels, Titans 1.75
Manly, Newcastle 2.00
Warriors 2.50
Cowboys 2.60
Cronulla 3
Bulldogs, Tigers 3.50
Dragons 3.75
Broncos 4.00

Can see Manly missing top 8 with turbo gone for 4+ weeks and their spine is s**t without him. Warriors heaps of changes and RTS last year so will want to finish with a bang. They're my pick to sneak into the top 8

 

[juss]

Outright Odds in 2021:

Panthers $5
South Sydney 5.50
Roosters 6
Storm 6.50
Raiders 11
Eels 14
Titans 16
Manly, Newcastle 21
Cowboys, Warriors 26
Cronulla 29
Tigers 41
Broncos, Dragons, Bulldogs 51

Raiders to me are a better chance than $11

 

[juss]

To Make The Top 8:

Penrith 1.10
Souths 1.12
Storm, Roosters 1.18
Raiders 1.42
Eels, Titans 1.75
Manly, Newcastle 2.00
Warriors 2.50
Cowboys 2.60
Cronulla 3
Bulldogs, Tigers 3.50
Dragons 3.75
Broncos 4.00

Geez if Ponga stays fit I don't mind Newcastle at $2
Eels at $1.75 pretty good too.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Raiders to me are a better chance than $11

Depends on injuries and they rely heavily on Jack Wighton

 

[juss]

Depends on injuries and they rely heavily on Jack Wighton

Injuries of course, that could cripple any team though.
They'll certainly be able to beat anyone on their day and should be around top 4 which gives them a chance.

Just reckon $11 is long for them at this stage. I reckon they will shorten through the year so they could even be a good buy and trade out team on Betfair.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Injuries of course, that could cripple any team though.
They'll certainly be able to beat anyone on their day and should be around top 4 which gives them a chance.

Just reckon $11 is long for them at this stage. I reckon they will shorten through the year so they could even be a good buy and trade out team on Betfair.

Na think the price is about right. South’s are the value should be $3 at most.

 

[juss]

Na think the price is about right. South’s are the value should be $3 at most.

I'll probably do what I did last year, back 3-4 teams at over 3-$4 each and either ride it to the end or trade out. It's worked for me the last few seasons although the year the Roosters beat the Raiders I was shitting myself because I didn't have the Raiders in my bets.

I'm almost certain the Raiders will shorten from $11 at some point in the season and will definitely be a profitable trade out.

 

[iluvparis]

Na think the price is about right. South’s are the value should be $3 at most.

The only teams that should ever be $3 to take out the NRL title are the Storm or the Roosters - no other club is professional enough to justify such a short quote this far out

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The only teams that should ever be $3 to take out the NRL title are the Storm or the Roosters - no other club is professional enough to justify such a short quote this far out

Each to their own. Only injuries will stop South’s being in the GF imo. Of all the top sides they are the only one that’s improved. Melbourne sure haven’t with Smith not being there and Penrith have lost a bucket of depth

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I'll probably do what I did last year, back 3-4 teams at over 3-$4 each and either ride it to the end or trade out. It's worked for me the last few seasons although the year the Roosters beat the Raiders I was shitting myself because I didn't have the Raiders in my bets.

I'm almost certain the Raiders will shorten from $11 at some point in the season and will definitely be a profitable trade out.

Raiders probably depend on what the season looks like. How many home games are they getting? They are a 10 point better side at home

 

[juss]

Each to their own. Only injuries will stop South’s being in the GF imo. Of all the top sides they are the only one that’s improved. Melbourne sure haven’t with Smith not being there and Penrith have lost a bucket of depth

Souths look great on paper but agree with ILP above, $3 before a game is played is not a price I'd touch. They only need to lose a game or two or have another contender have a blistering start for that to probably drift a bit.

 

[NYRB]

NRL Round 1 odds from Top Sport

Storm 1.82 v 2.00 Souths
Knights 1.50 v 2.60 Bulldogs
Broncos 3.35 v 1.33 Eels
Warriors 2.25 v 1.65 Titans
Roosters 1.33 v 3.35 Sea Eagles
Panthers 1.30 v 3.55 Cowboys
Raiders 1.30 v 3.55 Tigers
Dragons 2.25 v 1.65 Cronulla

 

[LukeParkerno1]

NRL Round 1 odds from Top Sport

Storm 1.82 v 2.00 Souths
Knights 1.50 v 2.60 Bulldogs
Broncos 3.35 v 1.33 Eels
Warriors 2.25 v 1.65 Titans
Roosters 1.33 v 3.35 Sea Eagles
Panthers 1.30 v 3.55 Cowboys
Raiders 1.30 v 3.55 Tigers
Dragons 2.25 v 1.65 Cronulla

Souths outsiders against a Storm side minus Smith and Grant out too lol

Warriors and Tigers value too

 

[NYRB]

Souths outsiders against a Storm side minus Smith and Grant out too lol

Warriors and Tigers value too

Storm record in Melbourne at AAMI park is pretty good ......they just seem to play the dimensions of the ground right.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Storm record in Melbourne at AAMI park is pretty good ......they just seem to play the dimensions of the ground right.

They do but no Smith is huge don’t think people realise how big a loss it is. Grant is out for a month too

 

[iluvparis]

They do but no Smith is huge don’t think people realise how big a loss it is. Grant is out for a month too

People said the same when Cronk left - betting against the storm is a sure fire way to the poor house

 

[LukeParkerno1]

People said the same when Cronk left - betting against the storm is a sure fire way to the poor house

Smith is a mile more important than Cronk.

 

[NYRB]

Line for Season Match Wins from TopSport

Broncos: under 7.5 wins 1.80 v 2.00 Over 7.5 wins
Canberra: under 15.5 wins 1.80 v 2.00 Over 15.5 wins
Canterbury: under 9.5 wins 1.74 v 2.10 Over 9.5 wins
Cronulla: under 9.5 wins 1.90 v 1.90 Over 9.5 wins
Gold Coast: under 9.5 wins 1.90 v 1.90 Over 9.5 wins
Manly: under 11.5 wins 1.90 v 1.90 Over 11.5 wins
Melbourne: under 16.5 wins 1.80 v 2.00 Over 16.5 wins
New Zealand: under 9.5 wins 1.90 v 1.90 Over 9.5 wins
Newcastle: under 11.5 wins 1.90 v 1.90 Over 11.5 wins
North Queensland: under 9.5 wins 1.90 v 1.90 Over 9.5 wins
Parramatta: under 14.5 wins 1.73 v 2.10 Over 14.5 wins
Penrith: under 17.5 wins 1.80 v 2.00 Over 17.5 wins
South Sydney: under 16.5 wins 1.80 v 2.00 Over 16.5 wins
St George : under 6.5 wins 1.90 v 1.90 Over 5.5 wins
Roosters: under 16.5 wins 1.80 v 2.00 Over 16.5 wins
Tigers: under 7.5 wins 1.90 v 1.90 Over 7.5 wins

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Penrith unders I will have a nibble. Just seen it too often a breakout side goes backwards the year after

 

[NYRB]

penrith line seems a bit high for wins , same too for Parramatta


got this weird feeling Cronulla can cover that 9.5 wins on over