NinjaSwan
Brownlow Medallist
NStats - Your Team's Finals Chances
With just 7 rounds remaining in the regular season the competition for finals places is heating up, so here at NStats we have taken the liberty of running the league through a Monte Carlo Simulation, assuming every game is a 50/50 chance, in order to determine every team's chances of making the Top 8, Top 4, as well as their most likely position.* It's also worth mentioning that most likely position is only out of finals placings, so sorry to get your hopes up Bears and Swamprats, but 8th is not your most likely position overall.
First of all, let's remind ourselves of the current table (thanks to LJP):
Code:
Team P W L D Pen For Agnst % Pts Streak L5 Change GB Chase
East Side Hawks 9 8 1 - - 1000 758 131.93 32 7W WWWWW - Ldr -
Roys FFC 9 8 1 - - 946 777 121.75 32 4W LWWWW - - -
West Coast Wonders 9 7 2 - - 977 877 111.40 28 3W WLWWW - -1 -
Fighting Furies 9 6 3 - - 934 954 97.90 24 1L LWLWL - -1 -
Dragons FFC 9 5 4 - - 805 882 91.27 20 1W WLWLW +2 -3.5 -
Baghdad Bombers 9 4 5 - - 886 921 96.20 16 1L LWLWL - -4.5 -
Mount Buller Demons 9 4 5 - - 902 967 93.28 16 1L WWLWL -2 -4.5 -
Gumbies FFC 9 2 5 2 - 914 923 99.02 12 1W DDWLW - -5.5 Ldr
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coney Island Warriors 9 2 6 1 - 881 880 100.11 10 4L DLLLL - -5.5 -0.5
Gold City Royals 9 2 6 1 - 855 955 89.53 10 2L LDWLL - -5.5 -0.5
Las Vegas Bears 9 2 7 - - 877 952 92.12 8 1W WLLLW - -6.5 -1
Sin City Swamprats 9 2 7 - - 807 938 86.03 8 1W LLLLW - -6.5 -1Individual Teams Analysis:
East Side Hawks:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 100%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 98.5%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 1st - 51.5%
Fixtures to come: Wonders (A), Roys (H), Gumbies (A), Bombers (H), Dragons (A), Royals (H), Furies (A)
With a stellar 8-1 record and a league best percentage of 131.93%, the East Side Hawks have mathematically secured a finals berth with a current 5 1/2 + percentage lead over 8th, and only complete disaster would stop them from finishing Top 4. The Hawks currently hold a 51.5% chance of finishing in 1st place, but the Round 11 clash with the Roys shapes as a crucial one in terms of determining the minor premiership with the winner set to be in the driver's seat.
Roys FFC:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 100%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 98.2%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 2nd - 40.4%
Fixtures to come: Dragons (H), Hawks (A), Bombers (H), Bears (A), Demons (H), Swamprats (A), Wonders (H)
Just like the Hawks, the Roys are also guaranteed to play finals in S25 thanks to their 8-1 record and strong percentage. Due to an inferior percentage they are ranked as more likely to come 2nd than 1st, but the Roys still hold a healthy 36.5% chance of finishing minor premiers and can look forward to enjoying a deep finals campaign.
West Coast Wonders:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 99.96%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 97.8%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 3rd - 41.2%
Fixtures to come: Hawks (H), Bears (A), Demons (H), Swamprats (A), Royals (H), Gumbies (H), Roys (A)
The Wonders haven't quite locked up a finals position, though it would take almost every result going agains them for them to miss out. Sitting at 7-2 with a healthy 111.40% they are also highly likely to finish Top 4 with just 2.2% of simulations having them missing out on the double chance. 3rd is their most likely finishing position, though with clashes agains the Roys and Hawks to come their fate is in their own hands if they win out.
Fighting Furies:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 98.72%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 67.4%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 4th - 39.5%
Fixtures to come: Bombers (A), Swamprats (H), Warriors (A), Demons (A), Gumbies (H), Dragons (A), Hawks (H)
Similarly to the Wonders, the Furies have all but mathematically secured a finals berth thanks to being 6-3 after 9 rounds. Unlike the aforementioned teams, they stand a major chance of missing out on Top 4 largely due to their inferior percentage (97.9%). In spite of this they hold a 1 game + percentage lead over 5th, and a 2 game lead over 6th and 7th, so their Top 4 place remains relatively safe for the time being. Games against closely placed rivals in the Bombers, Dragons, and Demons (all on the road) will all prove crucial to their Furies finishing position.
Dragons FFC:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 89.68%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 22.8%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 5th - 24.1%
Fixtures to come: Roys (A), Warriors (H), Bears (H), Gumbies (A), Hawks (A), Furies (H), Royals (A)
The last remaining team with a winning record (5-4), the Dragons have a nearly 90% chance of playing finals. In spite of this they have just a 22.8% chance of making the Top 4, largely due to their inferior percentage to teams around them, though a win against the Furies in Round 15 could change that. Unlike the previous 4 sides, there is not one finishing position with a distinct higher chance than the others, with 4th-7th all having between a 14.5-24.1 chance.
Baghdad Bombers:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 79.56%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 7.6%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 6th - 22.6%
Fixtures to come: Furies (H), Royals (H), Roys (A), Hawks (H), Swamprats (H), Bears (A), Demons (H)
Despite currently holding a losing record (4-5), the Bombers are ranked as a strong chance to make the finals due to both their decent percentage and the mediocrity of the bottom 4 sides. Finishing Top 4 seems a step too far though, with the Bombers needing to make up 2 games and percentage over the Furies, and also a game on the Dragons. Every position from 5th-8th is rated at >13% chance for Baghdad, making it highly likely they line-up for an elimination final come Week One.
Mount Buller Demons:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 74.60%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 7.4%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 7th - 18.6%
Fixtures to come: Royals (A), Gumbies (H), Wonders (A), Furies (H), Roys (A), Warriors (H), Bombers (A)
Ranked very similarly to the Bombers who they share a record with, Demons players would have to be feeling good about their chances of playing finals right now. Just like the Bombers earning that crucial double chance seems unlikely, but it's worth mentioning that the Demons play a significant number of 8 point games, playing the 3 teams directly below them, and the 3 of the 4 above in the final 7 rounds, so a winning streak would have the Demons not relying on other results going their way.
Gumbies FFC:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 55.52%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 4.8%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 7th - 15.3%
Fixtures to come: Bears (H), Demons (A), Hawks (H), Dragons (H), Furies (A), Wonders (A), Warriors (H)
Currently sitting in 8th place, the Gumbies rank as a just above 50% chance of making finals, and a very slim chance of sneaking into the Top 4. Interestingly they're given a higher chance of finishing 7th than 8th (15.0%), despite being far from certain to even make the finals. With just a half game lead over the Warriors and Royals it wouldn't be at all surprising to see them slip out. The final round clash with the Warriors shapes as an absolutely thrilling encounter with a finals spot potentially on the line.
Coney Island Warriors:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 35.96%
Chance of Finshing Top 4: 1.3%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 8th - 13.9%
Fixtures to come: Swamprats (H), Dragons (A), Furies (H), Royals (A), Bears (H), Demons (A), Gumbies (A)
Currently in 9th place and a half game out of the 8, the Warriors are ranked as a just under 40% shot of making finals. It's a shame they've had a draw as their extremely strong percentage (100.11%) for their record (2-6-1) will only come into play vs. the Royals unless another team has a draw. They receive a nice fixture in that they avoid each of the Top 3 teams, meaning every win will potentially help them overtake that team. As state previously, the Round 16 clash with the Gumbies will be crucial.
Gold City Royals:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 31.32%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 1%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 8th - 12.4%
Fixtures to come: Demons (H), Bombers (A), Swamprats (H), Warriors (H), Wonders (A), Hawks (A), Dragons (H)
The other team with a 2-6-1 record, the Royals are given nearly 5% less chance of making the finals than the Warriors due to their significantly inferior percentage meaning they will likely miss out if the two teams finish level. They unfortunately don't get an 8 point clash with the Gumbies, though they do get important matches in the next 2 weeks against the two 4-5 teams (Demons, Bombers), as well as with the Warriors in Round 13.
Las Vegas Bears:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 19.52%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 0.1%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 8th - 9.6%
Fixtures to come: Gumbies (A), Wonders (H), Dragons (A), Roys (H), Warriors (A), Bombers (H), Swamprats (A)
One of two teams languishing at the bottom with a 2-7 record, the Bears are given a slightly better chance due to their superior percentage, though with less than 10% chance of finishing in any individual Top 8 spot it's not a good one. Working in their favour is matches with a lot of the teams they can realistically catch up to, though they will be disappointed at not getting a chance to go up against the 10th placed Royals.
Sin City Swamprats:
Chance of Finishing Top 8: 14.32%
Chance of Finishing Top 4: 0.1%
Most Likely Finishing Position: 8th - 8.1%
Fixturs to come: Warriors (A), Furies (H), Royals (A), Wonders (A), Bombers (A), Roys (H), Bears (H)
Having both the leagues equal worst record (2-7) and outright worst percentage (86.03%) has the Swamprats wooden spoon favourite, but they still have a 14.32% chance of making the finals, which although isn't much is still enough to keep them competing. By some miracle a Swamprats Top 4 berth is mathematically possible, though we can all but rule it out. Let's hope the Round 16 Bears clash is one with finals on the line rather than just to avoid the wooden spoon.
We've taken a look at each team individually, now let's conclude by showing a couple of graphs comparing each team's chances:
*Note: Some numbers may be slightly off (<1%) due to formula/calculation errors, though most should be correct.
