NSW NSW State Election: 25th March 2023

[QuietB]

This stuff is cyclical. After the 2007 federal election Labor had every state and territory. Fast forward five years, most of the country was back under Coalition government.

Despite holding Tasmania I’d argue the Coalition’s situation is slightly worse this time around - there were some pretty weak Labor state governments waiting to be knocked over in 2007 - but the same general principle applies

e.g. due to weak oppositions the Victorian and Queensland governments are probably going to survive for longer than they should, which will inevitably trigger a voter backlash at some point.

The ship is always self-righting

I don't think this is cyclical.

• Branch members are quitting at a rate of knots - pushed out by the Christian Right. The Liberal base is disappearing.
• The LNP currently hold 180 of 523 lower house seats in Australia (state and federal parliament's).
• The LNP primary vote is falling and continues to fall.
• What primary vote they have left is diminishing rapidly - it is mainly boomers.
• Conservative media continues to push the LNP further to the right and further away from the voters they need to win.

Until the moderates take back the party the Liberals are unelectable. Until the Liberals find a way to accept and support issues like climate change, sexuality, diversity, etc. they are unelectable. Kids are growing up with their eyes wide open on these issues and they will never vote on mass for a party that denies them.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I don't think this is cyclical.

• Branch members are quitting at a rate of knots - pushed out by the Christian Right. The Liberal base is disappearing.
• The LNP currently hold 180 of 523 lower house seats in Australia (state and federal parliament's).
• The LNP primary vote is falling and continues to fall.
• What primary vote they have left is diminishing rapidly - it is mainly boomers.
• Conservative media continues to push the LNP further to the right and further away from the voters they need to win.

Until the moderates take back the party the Liberals are unelectable. Until the Liberals find a way to accept and support issues like climate change, sexuality, diversity, etc. they are unelectable. Kids are growing up with their eyes wide open on these issues and they will never vote on mass for a party that denies them.

I always appreciate Caesar ‘s Realpolitik take on things, but this is my belief. I think there is a seachange about. Maybe not on the level of the post WWII social democracy movement; neoliberalism has done a very thorough job of schitting on every aspect of that, that would take decades to redress, but I do believe that IF progressive parties show that they can be trusted to put the people’s best interests at heart rather than their own, we might be entering a new and more positive era of politics in Oz.

 

[nut]

apart from cultural wars? What do the LNP actually stand for?

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Dutton can’t campaign in NSW or Victoria.

LNP aren’t going anywhere near winning anytime soon.

 

[QuietB]

Dutton can’t campaign in NSW or Victoria.

LNP aren’t going anywhere near winning anytime soon.

They will win the Aston by election this weekend and think they are back on track.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

apart from cultural wars? What do the LNP actually stand for?

Not much now

Labor have effectively pinched the middle ground from right under their noses

They have nothing other than moving further to right which alienates them even more

 

[Twoslabs]

Might just be me but I can see the similarities between the current LNP and the ALP of the 1950s where there is a traditional side and a "religious wing" of the party.

After the DLP/ALP split there was a long time in the wilderness federally for Labor and even longer here in Vicrtoria.

This is what the LNP are facing now, they just don't seem to understand that whilst "no religion" increases each census their answer is to go further to the religious right

 

[QuietB]

Might just be me but I can see the similarities between the current LNP and the ALP of the 1950s where there is a traditional side and a "religious wing" of the party.

After the DLP/ALP split there was a long time in the wilderness federally for Labor and even longer here in Vicrtoria.

This is what the LNP are facing now, they just don't seem to understand that whilst "no religion" increases each census their answer is to go further to the religious right

And currently the Christian Right have the numbers which means they cannot turn the boat back even if the moderates wanted to.

 

[fs88]

They will win the Aston by election this weekend and think they are back on track.

It'll be a blight on the voter's intelligence if they re-elect a Lib when the cowardly one they originally voted on quit so soon after the election. The amount of money wasted for this is a disgrace.

 

[Gough]

It'll be a blight on the voter's intelligence if they re-elect a Lib when the cowardly one they originally voted on quit so soon after the election. The amount of money wasted for this is a disgrace.

Problem for Dutton here is that no result short of a big swing towards the Libs can be spun as a win for him.

 

[fs88]

apart from cultural wars? What do the LNP actually stand for?

i) Pro corruption
ii) Uneven distribution of wealth
iii) No coloured people (if coloured, they're in it for their share of i) and ii) )

 

[Crankyhawk]

apart from cultural wars? What do the LNP actually stand for?

lower taxes for the rich and lower benefits for the poor

 

[Gavin Excell]

I always appreciate Caesar ‘s Realpolitik take on things, but this is my belief. I think there is a seachange about. Maybe not on the level of the post WWII social democracy movement; neoliberalism has done a very thorough job of schitting on every aspect of that, that would take decades to redress, but I do believe that IF progressive parties show that they can be trusted to put the people’s best interests at heart rather than their own, we might be entering a new and more positive era of politics in Oz.

I've been thinking this recently as well.

There is always a temptation to write off a party doing it tough, but invariably as history shows it is cyclical. The old adage tht governments lose elections, rather than opposition winning it rings true. The "Ït's Time" factor seems to be the reason more than anything else.

Having said that, this is indeed a fork in the road moment for the Liberal Party for no other reason than the fact they are increasingly irrelevant and simply unelectable to the young (under 40s) given their policy positions. Why would a young person vote liberal?

 

[owen87]

How long will it take for the LNP to click that the Teal Independents won because they're basically what the LNP voter-base wants to vote for?

A conservative party with some modicum of environmental concern, not religious nuttery.

Their traditional voter base is only going to get older with each election loss.

 

[owen87]

Why would a young person vote liberal?

I suspect a large portion of their youth vote comes from intergenerational LNP voters; they vote that way because their parents told them to.

 

[spinynorman]

Cate Faehrmann declared the result a Greenslide (in Newtown).

A 1.8% swing mightn’t sound like much, but I ended up in Newtown late Saturday and let me tell you it was buzzing.

 

[nut]

How long will it take for the LNP to click that the Teal Independents won because they're basically what the LNP voter-base wants to vote for?

A conservative party with some modicum of environmental concern, not religious nuttery.

Their traditional voter base is only going to get older with each election loss.

Exactly … the LIberals didn’t move with the Will of the people… the Vacuum was filled by the Teals.
Now it’s the job of the Teals to keep Labor honest… and it’s the job of Labor to make the Teals relevant on policy making, if they both work together than the Liberals are dead and have no chance … you can’t fight politically on 2 fronts.
Add to the fact that regional Australia is still heavily conservative and the Nationals haven’t really gone backwards, the LNP have no wriggle room to become more moderate… the Nationals used to be the little brother, but now they are almost on equal footing.. and have a stronger voice than the LIberals. Atleast the Nationals tell a story.

 

[owen87]

Exactly … the LIberals didn’t move with the Will of the people… the Vacuum was filled by the Teals.
Now it’s the job of the Teals to keep Labor honest… and it’s the job of Labor to make the Teals relevant on policy making, if they both work together than the Liberals are dead and have no chance … you can’t fight politically on 2 fronts.
Add to the fact that regional Australia is still heavily conservative and the Nationals haven’t really gone backwards, the LNP have no wriggle room to become more moderate… the Nationals used to be the little brother, but now they are almost on equal footing.. and have a stronger voice than the LIberals. Atleast the Nationals tell a story.

Wonder whether there's a chance the LNP splits away from the Nationals with the more moderate side joining forces with the Teal Indepedents.

 

[nut]

Katelin McInerney has the privilege of, if she wins, defeating 2 sitting members ​

 

[nut]

Wonder whether there's a chance the LNP splits away from the Nationals with the more moderate side joining forces with the Teal Indepedents.

Yep…. That’s why the coalition. Is dead imo.

I agree, there is bigger chance that the Teals join forces with moderate Liberals to form a completely new party…
But what’s the point? It’ll only happen if Labor moves too far left…. And they don’t have to do that until they start getting swamped by the Greens.

I think the future will see more minority governments

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Atleast the Nationals tell a story.

And that story is "Now you and me both know that city folks have no idea - no idea of the challenges we rural people face, so give us your vote, there's a champion. Oh and by the way we're sinking an oil well on your pristine farmland, fracking underneath it, and diverting your water to our Big Ag mates".

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Cate Faehrmann declared the result a Greenslide (in Newtown).

A 1.8% swing mightn’t sound like much, but I ended up in Newtown late Saturday and let me tell you it was buzzing.

Newtown is always buzzing. You're sure that wasn't just Newtown being Newtown?

 

[nut]

And that story is "Now you and me both know that city folks have no idea - no idea of the challenges we rural people face, so give us your vote, there's a champion. Oh and by the way we're sinking an oil well on your pristine farmland, fracking underneath it, and diverting your water to our Big Ag mates".

It’s funny … the Greens would be the best party for a farmer. Helping farmers to become more sustainable would benefit everyone…

 

[Caesar]

Cate Faehrmann declared the result a Greenslide (in Newtown).

A 1.8% swing mightn’t sound like much, but I ended up in Newtown late Saturday and let me tell you it was buzzing.

Cate is bragging about the primary vote swing (55.7%, a swing of +11.6%)

It is a good result but a little bit disingenuous because most of it was just #1 votes reverting to them from Keep Sydney Open and Animal Justice, who didn't run candidates this year - the major parties were collectively only -1.2% on primary, and the ALP actually picked up votes

My (rather cynical) read is that Cate hyping the Newtown result is mostly about hyping Jenny Leong personally, who is Cate's strongest ally in the Greens party room against the more Marxist 'Left Renewal' faction

 

[QuietB]

Yep…. That’s why the coalition. Is dead imo.

I agree, there is bigger chance that the Teals join forces with moderate Liberals to form a completely new party…
But what’s the point? It’ll only happen if Labor moves too far left…. And they don’t have to do that until they start getting swamped by the Greens.

I think the future will see more minority governments

And minority governments can never work for the Liberals because all the minority parties are well to the left of them. The Liberals get their primary vote with is now less than 25%, add a few preferences from the cooker parties and that is it.

Falling primary vote is a trend that the Liberals cannot counter without a full sweep out. And that cannot happen until the Christian Right don't have the numbers. It is a death spiral.

How many liberal moderates are there left in federal parliament? I cannot name one in Victoria. We know Archer in Tasmania. Are there actually any moderates other than Archer?