NT wants a club within 10 years

[BringBackTorps]

1. nitv 23.3.21

Remote Tiwi Islands women's team(s) to play, for the first time, in the AFL NT comp. Huge social & educational etc. benefits for aboriginal communities (& others) in the NT (& not just those from the Tiwi Islands).

Enjoy.



(From wookie's sports.industry.com

IMO, Tasmania will probably join the AFL c. 2025- & after that, a combined Macarthur area-Canberra Club between 2030-2040 (6/5 home games split; plus playing at least 3 Away games also in Wollongong, sold by perennially impecunious Melb. clubs).

I doubt the NT could afford its own AFL team.

Perhaps a more likely scenario, after 2050, is a combined Northern Tropics FC- playing 5 games pa in Cairns, 4 in Townsville, 5 in Darwin, & 1 in Alice Springs.
Four of the NT games will be Away games for the NTFC, sold by impecunious Melb. Clubs- & paid for by mining companies, &/or NT or Federal govts. (due to the many social/educational/economic etc. benefits for aboriginal communities).






EDIT:

2. abc.net S. Vivian 13.2.21

NT govt. still very keen to explore possibilty it will, eventually, have its own AFL team.

AFL NT says the biggest obstacle is convincing AFL HQ that a NT team would be "commercially viable"; & NT Thunder, in the NEAFL, went broke after "plummeting crowd" & sponsorship $.

It was completed in 2019 but never released — so where is the AFL's report into a future NT AFL team?

Billed as the first steps on the Northern Territory's journey to securing an AFL team, a taxpayer-funded study into how the Territory could one day be home to an AFL club is still yet to be released despite its completion nearly 18 months ago.

www.abc.net.au

EDIT:

3. NEAFL exit by NT Thunder severely hurts NT AF.

"Indigenous women need support"

From premiership hero to without a footy home. How the AFL shocked a genuine star

A prodigiously talented, goal-scoring genius of the Long-Rioli family is just one of the dozens of men and women left confused and shocked by the AFL's decision to close the Northern Territory's only top-level side.

www.abc.net.au

"In 2010, we had 27 players on the AFL list, today [2019] there are 13".

'Something in our system is not right': NT loses its top-tier AFL team

Tanking crowd numbers, a lack of draft picks and a haemorrhaging of hundreds of thousands in sponsorship funds have assisted in the demise of the Northern Territory's top-tier AFL team.

www.abc.net.au

Whilst GR AF club nos. are booming in the NT, draft nos. have crashed by 50%- partial justification for disolving the NT Thunder, & VFLW, teams.
The AFL will concentrate on the elite jnr pathways instead, which will receive much more funding.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Okay then, lets put an AFL team in Warrnambool and see how successful it is.

I reckon a team there would go half alright, I know it's the old Fitzroy zone but would hurt Geelong a bit.

 

[Canberra Pear]

There's no way the NT could sustain a team within 10 years (or nine years for when this thread opened).

Darwin has only been hosting one game a season for a while and they barely scrape 10k. When they had two games a season they only averaged 8.7k a game.

But theoretically, if Carrara had to be the base for a team, I don't think Darwin would have capacity to host any more than five or so games. They'd then have to play two games each at Alice, Cairns and Townsville. And Alice would have to have all the early season games to avoid the wet season. It'd be a messy arrangement though.

 

[RedV3x]

Actual footy aside, NT government is broke af, bringing an AFL club to the territory would bring in some desperately needed funds.

If the N.T. government is broke then how can they build the necessary infrastructure ?

Realistically, the cost of infrastructure is never fully recouped.

 

[RedV3x]

The average crowd for the games played in Wellington was 16k while not great

It's quite fantastic. The AFL averaged NRL sized crowds in a city of 400,000.
Auckland has 1.7 million people with an AFL program in schools.
And Yes, television rights would be a good part of it.

 

[RedV3x]

Population of Darwin - 132k
Population of Alice Springs - 25k

Cairns - 150k
Townsville - 178k
Gold Coast - 550k
Newcastle - 322k
Canberra - 395k
Wollongong - 295k
Ballarat - 101k
Bendigo - 110k

I don't think it's viable. The idea is romantic (sides in all capital cities) but the feasibility seems questionable.

IMO a "Northern" team is more viable. Darwin/Cairns/Townsville/Sunshine Coast but still unlikely.

 

[RedV3x]

Extra game doesn’t mean extra money,

Yes it does. That is how GWS and Gold Coast were underwritten.

the NRL has become the most watched competition in Australia,

No it hasn't. In fact the NRL is way way down.

 

[RedV3x]

The main reason the 9th game may have increased TV rights is it increased the amount and proportion of the TV content that was subscription only.

And subscription viewing tends to pay more money than FTA but sports want as much FTA as possible to keep growing.

In the longer term it may add value through adding extra clubs in the biggest and third biggest markets.

The four AFL clubs in Qld and NSW have definitely added tremendous value.

A tenth game would add less of the first and nothing for the second if the extra teams in Tasmania and the NT

A ten game round would add boost the existing AFL FTA in those areas, but they aren't the biggest areas and it's only a boost not a new market.
A ten game round would add more subscription content under the present arrangement of four FTA games.
Tasmania and N.T. would add some value as consolidate Australian Rules Football in those areas.

 

[Seedsfan]

Yes it does. That is how GWS and Gold Coast were underwritten.



No it hasn't. In fact the NRL is way way down.

Lol

Yes the NRL has become the most watched comp. Granted those numbers are a bit disingenuous as they never have two games on at the same time so they maximise viewership on each game

 

[RedV3x]

they never have two games on at the same time so they maximise viewership on each game

Post links or cease with the crap. And still it's a ratings win for AFL ! Plenty of headlines stating so.

 

[Professor Knowall]

Lol Yes the NRL has become the most watched comp. Granted those numbers are a bit disingenuous as they never have two games on at the same time so they maximise viewership on each game

What are you on about? The AFL comfortably outrated the NRL for the whole 2020 H&A season - and then went on to have crushing ratings wins when the games went head to head through the finals, culminating in the massive viewing difference for the GF. This was all clearly documented by 'The Wookie' throughout the season in the relevant threads.
The NRL wasn't even close to matching the AFL in viewing numbers.

 

[NoobPie]

Lol

Yes the NRL has become the most watched comp. Granted those numbers are a bit disingenuous as they never have two games on at the same time so they maximise viewership on each game

It's not just about games being on at the same time. It's that one game goes 50% longer. The AFL has far greater viewers than the Nrl. It's not even close

 

[Seedsfan]

Post links or cease with the crap. And still it's a ratings win for AFL ! Plenty of headlines stating so.

2019 NRL season by the TV ratings numbers - Sports Industry AU

Its been another big year for Rugby League in 2019 as 113.5 million people tuned in to see

www.footyindustry.com

NRL becomes the most watched sport in Australia this season - Ministry of Sport

Heading into the back end of the NRL finals, the game has announced staggering […]

ministryofsport.com.au

 

[Johnny Bananas]

2019 NRL season by the TV ratings numbers - Sports Industry AU

Its been another big year for Rugby League in 2019 as 113.5 million people tuned in to see

www.footyindustry.com

NRL becomes the most watched sport in Australia this season - Ministry of Sport

Heading into the back end of the NRL finals, the game has announced staggering […]

ministryofsport.com.au

So it includes Origin, international games and NRLW. That's convenient. But it isn't a comparison of the NRL to the AFL.

 

[NoobPie]

So it includes Origin, international games and NRLW. That's convenient. But it isn't a comparison of the NRL to the AFL.

And it is a rather stupid aggregation of 2 hour game averages with 3 hour game averages.

So the Nrl sticks its nose in front some years relying on a meaningless illogical comparison

 

[Professor Knowall]

So it includes Origin, international games and NRLW. That's convenient. But it isn't a comparison of the NRL to the AFL.

And, no surprise, it's all the way back from 2019 - because 2020 told a very different story.

 

[RedV3x]

crap

Accumulative figures by NRL for rugby league in total NOT NRL and not comparative.

Easter TV ratings Thursday April 1, 2021

One point AFL thriller on Seven narrowly outrates Gogglebox on 10. Seven #1 in TV ratings ahead of Nine and then 10 in third place

www.mediaweek.com.au

NRL audience plummets by more than 1 million since restart

The NRL has lost a quarter of its television audience since the competition restarted as the Broncos and blowouts prove a ratings disaster.

www.smh.com.au

NRL broadcasts lose more than a million viewers since competition restart - Australasian Leisure Management

www.ausleisure.com.au

2020 AFL and NRL Grand Final Ratings - Sports Industry AU

AFL 2020 AFL Grand Final National 3.812m Metro 2.979m Regional 833k) Metro – Syd 413k, Melb 1,583m, Bris 383k, Adel

www.footyindustry.com

 

[Rob]

Lol

Yes the NRL has become the most watched comp. Granted those numbers are a bit disingenuous as they never have two games on at the same time so they maximise viewership on each game

Has the NRL won a head to head with the AFL even once this year? And that's with AFL averages over 3 hours whereas NRL averages are only over 2.

 

[Seedsfan]

And, no surprise, it's all the way back from 2019 - because 2020 told a very different story.

And why did 2020 tell a different story?

Outside of Melbourne being in lock down and not allowing any other forms of entertainment it was the fact the AFL was never broadcasting two games at the same time. Those numbers in 2018 and 19 do not say that more people engage with the NRL but that the fans engage with more of the overall product.

That’s why fox sports pushed that change on the game at the start of 2018 as it makes it more profitable

The AFL needs to have less games on at the same time as it limits the audience for each game

 

[Professor Knowall]

?.. The AFL needs to have less games on at the same time as it limits the audience for each game

OK - Yes, certainly the AFL could increase their ratings without simultaneous or overlapping games - but they would have to balance this against having fan friendly timeslots to maximise attendances (which also brings in much revenue).

Anyway, to get back on the immediate topic, I can't see Darwin having its own AFL club soon - or probably ever
unless its population and economy drastically change. There was a bit of a boom some years back now, on the back
of unsustainable spending by the NT government - which led to a fiscal crisis and the local economy and population has tanked over the last few years. There's too many now dependent on Centrelink, which is now the only growth industry up there. In contrast, Ballarat and Bendigo are each growing much faster and their economies are already far ahead - and I don't see either of them getting their own team. Darwin has no hope and shouldn't even be in the conversation. Apart from the obvious - Tasmania, I think Canberra is the next best bet, then quite a few other options ahead of Darwin in
the queue.

 

[Established1870]

Has the NRL won a head to head with the AFL even once this year? And that's with AFL averages over 3 hours whereas NRL averages are only over 2.

The AFL could fixture North playing the Daylesford U9's and it'd have more people watching that over the NRL.

And unless Darwin gets 400,00 new people moving in by 2030 then I can't see them having team by then if ever. The NT deserves it's own side but there's a lot of reasons why it's unfeasible. Just look at the arguments people make against Tassie and amplify them by a million.

 

[RedV3x]

And unless Darwin gets 400,00 new people moving in by 2030 then I can't see them having team by then if ever.

An AFL team needs a certain following to exist. Thus an AFL team needs a certain population to exist but obviously that population must be conducive to Australian Rules Football.
The population of Geelong is 253,000 and they have a magnificent following, a magnificent history and a magnificent stadium.
Is 250,000 the magic number ? No. Geelong I suspect is supported by a hinterland and attendances are boosted by visiting teams from Melbourne
Aside from derbies, non-Melbourne teams don't receive much benefit from visiting teams.
On the other side of the equation is that autonomous regions tend to be more parochial and better targets for sponsorship.

The big question of course is which model are the AFL trying to attain ?
ATM the AFL is a mixture of big Victorian clubs, big interstate clubs and boutique-style clubs.
Undoubtedly any new clubs will have to be boutique-style clubs.
This raises equalisation questions and more complaining from historical Melbourne clubs.
Having said this, (which on reflection sounds rather negative) I believe the AFL should push on, make a decision and announce a plan.

 

[Established1870]

The population of Geelong is 253,000 and they have a magnificent following, a magnificent history and a magnificent stadium.
Is 250,000 the magic number ? No. Geelong I suspect is supported by a hinterland and attendances are boosted by visiting teams from Melbourne
Aside from derbies, non-Melbourne teams don't receive much benefit from visiting teams.
On the other side of the equation is that autonomous regions tend to be more parochial and better targets for sponsorship.

Geelong aren't exactly the perfect example people make them out to be for things like this. They're a founding member of the VFL, the second oldest club in the history of footy and they've got a city of 5 and a half million people an hour away with the western suburbs having a fair number of Cats fans in them.

NT don't have any of that to draw from and while I'm not questioning that it's footy heartland I do not see any way they'd be sustainable.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Only a semi-serious suggestion, but what would you think of a "Territory FC", with games split between the NT and ACT.

You'd probably need a slight bigger presence in Canberra where the population and money is, like a 6/5 split.

The weather is terrible in Darwin for the start of the season, Canberra gets some pretty bitter nights through winter, the cities could actually complement each other pretty well.

 

[The_Reaper]

Only a semi-serious suggestion, but what would you think of a "Territory FC", with games split between the NT and ACT.

You'd probably need a slight bigger presence in Canberra where the population and money is, like a 6/5 split.

The weather is terrible in Darwin for the start of the season, Canberra gets some pretty bitter nights through winter, the cities could actually complement each other pretty well.

There is nothing to link Darwin and Canberra together other than being territories.

Give Canberra its own team, possibly with Albury getting 1-3 matches.

There would be 6 or 7 cities ahead of Darwin in the pecking order - most of whom shouldn't get new/an additional team.