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Number 1 Draft Picks

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Hodgepodge said:
Hodge has been the best selection of the 2001 draft.

Consider that he was the only player of Ball, Judd and Hodge to stick with his original club, and has also been unbelievable in finals.

His Norm Smith performance in 2008 will go down as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest of all time.

Injury has plagued his career and he has been forced to play in defence, but a bolstered backline may see him play his preferred role of mid/fwd in 2010 and beyond.
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Have to disagree. Hodge is behind Judd, not a big gap between them, but Judd is better IMO. Judd has also struggled with injury - was cruising to his 2nd Brownlow in 2007 before groin injury.
Shouldn't base a player's worth on their GF performance, but FWIW Judd is also very capable in big games ('06 GF - 28 disposals 1 goal, '05 GF - 29 disposals). Other awards/stats will fall in Judd's favour.
Finally, a player moving club has nothing to do with how good they are.
 
Hodgepodge said:
Hodge has been the best selection of the 2001 draft.

Consider that he was the only player of Ball, Judd and Hodge to stick with his original club, and has also been unbelievable in finals.

His Norm Smith performance in 2008 will go down as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest of all time.

Injury has plagued his career and he has been forced to play in defence, but a bolstered backline may see him play his preferred role of mid/fwd in 2010 and beyond.
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One of the worst and most biased comparisons I have ever seen (excluding bay 13). Judd > Hodge.
 
ratten7 said:
You are kidding right,

Gibbs: at the age of 20 came top ten in the Brownlow. I wouldn't call that a loss at all. Selwood is a year older and ATM considered better but the gap is rapidly closing. WIN!

Murphy: Again top ten in Brownlow and the only player at the moment from that draft that might compete is Pendles. So WIN!

Kreuzer: As you said it is too early to tell, he managed 5th best and fairest and all the signs are there that he could become a gun. There are not to many 200cm players in the history of AFL that have made the same impact in their first 2 years as Kruezer. People say that Josh kennedy and Ryder are going to be guns, however it took them 5 years to be noticed. So again Could easily be a WIN

That's 100%.

Although i must admit i would have picked Cotch, but am more than happy with Kreuzer as I can assure you your team would be rapt with him as well.
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2005 WIN at the moment, I would take Pendles over Murphy though, but I will pay it
2006 Selwood he is a total gun, blame sticks
2007 Cotchin, Rioli ect..
 

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Lazyboy said:
The points I was trying to make

1, You have less than a 50% chance of picking the best player in the country with the number 1 pick, carlton have had 3, missed on Selwood, Kreuzer is still to early to call but he is anything but a standout, and Murphy maybe slightly ahead of his pack, Carlton are currently punching at 33%, I believe that can only change for the worse.
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Even if Selwood is better (I'm not saying he is), Carlton got the 2nd best player from that draft - meaning they essentially 'won' from the '06 draft. Any club would would be thrilled if they got the 2nd best player from any draft - but it's doubtful you'll get that player unless you have a high pick.
 
Lazyboy said:
1, You have less than a 50% chance of picking the best player in the country with the number 1 pick, carlton have had 3, missed on Selwood, Kreuzer is still to early to call but he is anything but a standout, and Murphy maybe slightly ahead of his pack, Carlton are currently punching at 33%, I believe that can only change for the worse.
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I wouldn't swap Kreuzer for any first and second round pick combination from his draft.

The ruckman blew away his teammates to win the hill sprints at Carlton's training camp at Mornington.

Kreuzer is a beast and a rare athlete for a second year tall.

339815-matthew-kreuzer.jpg


Kreuzer played like a fourth year ruckman this year, yet Matty doesn't even turn 21 until May. :eek:

Superstar. :thumbsu:
Lazyboy said:
2005 WIN at the moment, I would take Pendles over Murphy though, but I will pay it
2006 Selwood he is a total gun, blame sticks
2007 Cotchin, Rioli ect..
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Bay 13 is a few clicks down.

If you want to discuss the value of bottoming out, I'd take a CHF from East Freo ahead of your first two picks in the 2005 draft.

Kennedy hasn't jibbed a contest three times.

Carlton first three picks in the 2005 draft are tracking better than Collingwood's.
 
not sure what the point of just examining pick 1 is... if you look at the top5 for the past 5 or 6 years it is a magnificent group of players... basically if you get a player in this group there is an 80-90% chance they will be a very good player and some of them stars

BTW we have 5 of those players and sylvia and morton are amongst our best at the club while the other three haven't played except Watts' 3 games ;)

I get the feeling when we hit our peak nobody will be questioning the value of high draft picks in the MODERN game, same goes for WCE and Carlton
 
Hodgepodge said:
Hodge has been the best selection of the 2001 draft.

Consider that he was the only player of Ball, Judd and Hodge to stick with his original club, and has also been unbelievable in finals.

His Norm Smith performance in 2008 will go down as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest of all time.

Injury has plagued his career and he has been forced to play in defence, but a bolstered backline may see him play his preferred role of mid/fwd in 2010 and beyond.
Click to expand...
Judd is better than Hodge, loyalty means nothing in this argument. His performance in the Grand Final was unbleivable and probably one of the best in the last half century

-------------------------------------
The number 1 pick is the one with the most clear talent (in most places). However, as Dunstall said, it doesn't matter where you were drafted but how you take the chance. Every kid who is drafted has the talent (including the rookies as we so often see) and in the end all that matters is how you take the chance. Scully's probably one of the most commited draftees of all time, I won't bore you with the no drinking etc. stories but I have full confidence that he'll take his chance by the scruff of the neck
 
dan0z said:
vince and pendles >> murphy
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more scope for improvement, Muirphy is ahead ATM but the other two will overtake fast
 
There have been what could be labeled fails in recent years, but even here those players could have easily turned out to be the best players from their year. Both Headland and Waterhouse had all the talent in the world but just didn't do enough with it. There are less players slipping through the cracks (although there are exceptions such as Kurt Tippett) and top 10 and particulary top 5 picks are a goldmine. Carlton may not have snared the best player from each year, but at worst, they have a player in the top 3 or 4 in each year.
 

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It's not about whether you get the absolute best player in the draft, it's about increasing your chances of getting a good player.

As for Hodge/Judd, I reckon Hodge has been better for the Hawks over the last two years than Judd has been for West Coast, and I don't see that changing. Doesn't matter how good the bloke you picked is if he doesn't play for you.
 
markr said:
It's not about whether you get the absolute best player in the draft, it's about increasing your chances of getting a good player.

As for Hodge/Judd, I reckon Hodge has been better for the Hawks over the last two years than Judd has been for West Coast, and I don't see that changing. Doesn't matter how good the bloke you picked is if he doesn't play for you.
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He also got them Josh Kennedy who looks like becoming a very, very good CHF. Besides he delivered them a flag and back to back flags. What else can a bloke do for a club?
 
Kram81 said:
Josh Fraser is pretty shit for a number 1.
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Josh cops it from all sides, he was the absolute standout pick for number 1, and has a solid career.

top 10 from 1999

J.Fraser
Hasleby - solid, but still prefer Josh
A.Fiora - average, prefer Josh
Pavlich - the standout from the draft
L.Brown - journeyman, prefer josh
Cupido - headcase
D.Roach - WOW
J.Corey - quality player, ahead of Josh now
C.Beetham - flop
L.McPharlin - solid, but prefer a fit Josh

The top 10 was ordinary really, Josh has done well in comparison to what else the pies could have chosen.
 
The number 1 draft pick does not always turn out to be the best player, but i think from that list you can pretty much guarantee that they will at least be in the top 3 or 4 for that particular group. That in my mind is good enough. I mean, it's just impossible to be able to determine who the best player will eventually be but i'd say that the experts more or less get it right most times.

Based on the history of number 1 drafts picks, you have to assume that Jack Watts and Tom Scully will at the very least turn out to be pretty decent players.
 
I think there are many elements towards creating a premiership side. To rely solely on number 1 draft picks or first round picks would be foolish.

You do need some great pick ups further down the list. Robinson from Tassy looks like a great pick up for us, and you need a few gems in the rookie draft = eg Aaron Joseph. There are 22 players in the team - not one, two or three players.

Geelong got so many of their great players later in the draft or the rookie draft - other than the father-son advantage they have recruited really well. Mackie, Harry Taylor etc.
 

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doppleganger said:
Josh cops it from all sides, he was the absolute standout pick for number 1, and has a solid career.

top 10 from 1999

J.Fraser
Hasleby - solid, but still prefer Josh
A.Fiora - average, prefer Josh
Pavlich - the standout from the draft
L.Brown - journeyman, prefer josh
Cupido - headcase
D.Roach - WOW
J.Corey - quality player, ahead of Josh now
C.Beetham - flop
L.McPharlin - solid, but prefer a fit Josh

The top 10 was ordinary really, Josh has done well in comparison to what else the pies could have chosen.
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Hasleby was a star before injuries set in.

Pav > Corey > Hasleby > Fraser > The rest.

This is just the top 10 don't forget.
 
SirJimi05 said:
Hasleby was a star before injuries set in.

Pav > Corey > Hasleby > Fraser > The rest.

This is just the top 10 don't forget.
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Fraser is better than Haselby.

Irrespective, if you take a player with your first pick and he ends up only being the third or fourth best player in the draft, you've still done well.

Put it another way, with pick 1 you are pretty much guaranteed to get a top ten player from that draft. Theres no such guarantee beyond about pick 5.
 
Warlpiri Wizard said:
more scope for improvement, Muirphy is ahead ATM but the other two will overtake fast
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Will they? You do know that Vince is almost 2 years older then Murphy.

Murphy is pretty under rated by many BF posters, an attacking mid who kicked 30+ goals last season, apparently these types grow on tree's :)

His kicking is now top quality, and he is going to be lot bigger this season, but hey, everyone else will continue to improve but him :rolleyes:
 
ratten7 said:
Gibbs: at the age of 20 came top ten in the Brownlow. I wouldn't call that a loss at all. Selwood is a year older and ATM considered better but the gap is rapidly closing. WIN!
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Let us not mention that Selwood came top 10 in that Brownlow and got more votes than Gibbs.

So the gap is rapidly closing eh? We have the Rising Star winner, 2 time premiership player, top 10 in the Brownlow, All Australian - with a stack of other awards (you can look it up if you are bored) vs a guy who I am not sure has won anything or done anything of significance in the game but the gap is apparently closing......:thumbsu:
 
ratten7 said:
You are kidding right,

Gibbs: at the age of 20 came top ten in the Brownlow. I wouldn't call that a loss at all. Selwood is a year older and ATM considered better but the gap is rapidly closing. WIN!

Murphy: Again top ten in Brownlow and the only player at the moment from that draft that might compete is Pendles. So WIN!

Kreuzer: As you said it is too early to tell, he managed 5th best and fairest and all the signs are there that he could become a gun. There are not to many 200cm players in the history of AFL that have made the same impact in their first 2 years as Kruezer. People say that Josh kennedy and Ryder are going to be guns, however it took them 5 years to be noticed. So again Could easily be a WIN

That's 100%.

Although i must admit i would have picked Cotch, but am more than happy with Kreuzer as I can assure you your team would be rapt with him as well.
Click to expand...


Not even close to getting near Selwood .
 

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