Number of players that are worth a 1st round pick in a trade

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Did someone say Houli ?????

 

[steelebottom22]

Not even worth mentioning in the same breath.

your ruckman the leunberger got the lions pick 22 i think witts is worth around that mark they dont grow on trees

 

[steelebottom22]

We wouldn't want him back; couldn't afford him.

And no one could afford all our midfield at market rates.

you have a great midfield but if treloar was still at gws he would be the best of them you have to admit.

 

[inbetween]

There's no way any club would sacrifice a first rounder for the highlighted.

Priddis - past 30, has probably peaked
NN- doubts over recovery from his knee injury
Lycett - just no, clubs don't give up first rounders for serviceable rucks, might change end of 2017
Sheppard - love the guy but he's not in the top 10% of the competition, easily replaceable at many clubs
Hurn - approaching 30, I don't think half back flankers are ever worth a first rounder in today's environment
Barrass - still mostly unproven, isn't a Bontempelli et al (playing at an extraordinary level for a 2nd year)
Sheed - see above
Masten - lolwut, if a club offers a first rounder for Masten I'd drive him to the airport myself and pay for the one way ticket
Darling - also love the guy but see Sheppard

Darling and NicNat are most definitely worth first round picks. Darling is still quite young and key forwards are high in demand.
Even with his injury NN would be first round material.

The rest you probably have right. The Masten one was hilarious though.
Barrass and Sheed may or may not be worth first rounders pending future performances too.

 

[SizeMatters]

Rockliff, Schache, Hipwood, Andrews, Zorko, and possibly Rich.

 

[sunsofanarchy]

Lynch
May
Omeara x 2 lel
Prestia
Swallow
Ablett (late)
Touk
KK
Wright
Hall
Martin

 

[sunsofanarchy]

Which current players are worth pick 1?

T Lynch
Dangerfield
Fyfe
Treloar
J Kennedy (WCE)
Franklin
Bontempelli
J Steven (?)
J Cameron
Gawn
Petracca
Cripps
Weitering
Heeney (?)

Any others?

Omeara

 

[sr36]

Omeara

If his body was right he'd be worth 2 Pick 1s. But two much doubt for 1 Pick 1.

 

[my name was taken]

anyone dared to do gws yet, more 1st round options in their reserves than most clubs

 

[SterlingArcher]

40-50% chance (approx) of a top 10 pick playing 200 games.

First round picks are overrated.

To come to the conclusion that 'first round picks are overrated', I'd like to see stats on what % chance you have with 11-20, 21-30, 31-40 etc. Dare say top 10 picks have the best chance...

edit: Here's the breakdown of 200 game players plus some guys who could still make it depending on age. Pretty much shows how ridiculous it is to state first round picks are overrated when they have a much superior chance to playing 200 games than picks below. 8/20 in 2006 from first 20 picks (although Reid/Brown are probably going to fall just short), as opposed to 9/60 from the next 60 picks.

2006:
1-10: Gibbs 209, Selwood 222
· Armitage 150, Reid 121, Brown 130
11-20: Riewoldt 202
· Frawley 161, Grigg 167
21-30:
· Edwards 187, Mackenzie 124
31-40:
· Tippett 162, Goldstein 159, Kennedy 167
41-50:
· Hawkins 187, Houli 149
51-60:
· Gray 155
61-70:
71-80: Westhoff 203

10/20 from the first 20 picks, 7/50 from there after.
2005:
1-10: Murphy 214, Thomas 200, Pendlebury 236
· Kennedy 187, Ryder 188
11-20: Jones 223, Birchall 220
· Higgins 158, Hurn 196, Douglas 190
21-30:
· Ibbotson 167
31-40:
· Vince 193, Gilbert 179
41-50: Swallow 205
· Carlile 167
51-60: Patfull 203
61-70: Stokes 200

7/20 in the first 20, 5 in the next 50 or so...
2004:
1-10: Deledio 243, Roughead 231, Griffen 224, Franklin 243, Lewis 261
11-20: Monfries 210
· Dunn 165
21-30: Van Berlo 205
· Rosa 183
31-40: Cloke 246,
· LeCras 177, Maric 157

 

[SterlingArcher]

Since no one has done Saints I'll make a list of players that would likely command a first round pick.

Steven
McCartin
Hickey
Longer
Carlisle
Acres
Membrey
Bruce
Ross

Then you have Armitage, Billings, Newnes, Savage, Weller and a few others that might be worth a late first - early second depending on the club who's after them. E.g Gold Coast would probably give up a late first for Armitage.

Longer?

Longer + 48 for picks 25 and 41. Hasn't played at all this year, yes due to injuries, but with Hickey well ahead now. Isn't much of a goalkicker or a big ball winner.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Rockliff, Schache, Hipwood, Andrews, Zorko, and possibly Rich.

Disagree on Rich, mainly due to position he plays (more emphasis on KPPs) but would add Beams (despite injury history, if you could give up pick 15 or so for him you would absolutely do it), and Darcy Gardiner too. Pick 22 with a couple of years development put into him, you would want a first rounder for him.

 

[SizeMatters]

Disagree on Rich, mainly due to position he plays (more emphasis on KPPs) but would add Beams (despite injury history, if you could give up pick 15 or so for him you would absolutely do it), and Darcy Gardiner too. Pick 22 with a couple of years development put into him, you would want a first rounder for him.

I forgot about Beams. I think a top 4 club would definitely give up their first for Rich IMO.

 

[telsor]

Crazy Vossy in high gear wouldn't offer you a first rounder for him, let alone a mid first rounder. (Due to age and injuries)

That's kinda my point...He's worth more to Richmond than anyone outside would offer.

 

[Shinboner roo]

essendon's whole list according to adrian dodoro

 

[Stratts4Norm]

Stratton, bruest, Gunston, Frawley, Rioli Birchall and maybe burton after few pre seasons

 

[Vintage]

Worth to who?

Players can be worth different things to different clubs....the 'last piece of the jigsaw' is worth more for example...also a long serving player can be worth more to the club he's at than anyone else would pay for him.

Case in point being Deledio...30 next year, injuries starting to catch up with him (well, 1 injury he can't fully shake), so it would be a rare club that would pay a 1st rounder for him, but to Richmond there is no way they'd let him go for less than a mid first.

I reckon they would take pick 12 for Deledio in a heartbeat.

 

[telsor]

I reckon they would take pick 12 for Deledio in a heartbeat.

But who would offer it?

 

[Vintage]

But who would offer it?

No sane person, but that wasn't your point.

 

[JackOutback]

Darling and NicNat are most definitely worth first round picks. Darling is still quite young and key forwards are high in demand.
Even with his injury NN would be first round material.

The rest you probably have right. The Masten one was hilarious though.
Barrass and Sheed may or may not be worth first rounders pending future performances too.

People are either overrating picks or not realising round one can include pick 18. Injury or not, clubs would be lining up for NN and Darlng would easily attract a round one pick. On exposed form, Barrass probably would, Lycett would get you a late first rounder, Sheed would next year. I even think Shep would be worth 15-25. Hurn would be a no, Masten would be 20-30.

 

[The Passenger]

Needs to be a bit more definitive than first round pick. The difference between pick 1 and 18 is huge. It would be larger than the difference between pick 19 (Round 2 pick 1) and pick 54 (Round 3 pick 18).

Probably half the guys getting who are best 22 (15+ games in the season just gone) under the age of 25 would net their respective team a pick no worse than roughly 20.

 

[The Passenger]

Injury or not, clubs would be lining up for NN and Darlng would easily attract a round one pick.

Not going to happen but if we put NicNat on the trade table and said clubs can take the risk of his knee injury, I'd be shocked if we didn't at least get offered a late first round pick by one of the top clubs who are weak in the ruck.

 

[melbournemartin]

"Worth a first rounder" is always such a vague concept. The difference between picks 1 and 15 is about the same as picks 15 to 80.

 

[telsor]

No sane person, but that wasn't your point.

It was...I'm just wondering what yours is.

 

[inbetween]

People are either overrating picks or not realising round one can include pick 18. Injury or not, clubs would be lining up for NN and Darlng would easily attract a round one pick. On exposed form, Barrass probably would, Lycett would get you a late first rounder, Sheed would next year. I even think Shep would be worth 15-25. Hurn would be a no, Masten would be 20-30.

Entering the thread i naturally assumed it meant picks 1-18 but judging from the responses they seem to suggest early to mid first round picks (1-12ish). Lycett is a curious case, he would only be worth a late first rounder to a contending team desperately in need of a ruck.

I also dont think there's a single team in the league willing to trade their first round pick (even a late one) for Shep. As great as he is at what he does, there really isn't much of a demand for mid-size defenders. So he'd be a classic case of second round trade bait by virtue of his position and role.