Racing October Daily Punt - *Derby Day to finish us off *

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FallingLiefs

Premium Gold
Jan 30, 2013
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Awesome to see the time honoured Golden Eagle dominating sky marketing in the lead up to this weekend :rolleyes:
My favourite bit of the Everest was Radley asking Les Bridge "this must be the biggest day in your career" the response was basically are you kidding no its not close

...


Well it's the biggest pay day anyway!


Still just a giant cheque and not much more to those involved.
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
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Looking at the barrier draw for the Derby and very comfortable that the winner will come from either Young Werther or Lets Karaka Deel (as long as it doesnt end up outside the leader again! I will be having a large bet on the quinella
 

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Shade

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Redwood Shadow makes some appeal to me and ill be having something tiny on my boy Cetshwayo again.
 

TBellicious

Premiership Player
Sep 4, 2013
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This chopper shot really highlights just how well Russian Camelot has run IMO
- early work 5 wide around the first bend
- exposed 3 wide no cover until Oliver found 1 out 1 back
- settling close to a very hot speed and having to work to keep up with Probabeel to ensure some cover (which came and went), all the while Sir Dragonet and Armory are literally smoking the pipe and asleep with extremely economical runs
- exposed significantly early and left a sitting duck


MASSIVE Melbourne Cup player as he'll drop back to a handicap and be ridden colder.
 
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mcnulty

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Sep 18, 2019
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My concern with him is he can tend to overdo it. I agree his run was massive the other day but I think a strong tempo helped him in that regard.

If they drop anchor in the MC he could find himself pulling again. Still a work in progress for mine, but I wouldn’t try and talk anyone out of him.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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My concern with him is he can tend to overdo it. I agree his run was massive the other day but I think a strong tempo helped him in that regard.

If they drop anchor in the MC he could find himself pulling again. Still a work in progress for mine, but I wouldn’t try and talk anyone out of him.
Yeah bit of a goldilocks horse in the Cup (will need everything to go right) - think his best hope is if they go back and its a fast tempo and he runs over the top of them like Efficient did.
 

Jugada

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Dec 5, 2012
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Camel fappers still going down with the ship.

Not sure how dropping to a handicap is a plus. He is in poorly at the weights and even meets the Dragon worse off
 

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Jugada

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Based on the fact that the Cox Plate was the best 2000m+ race so far this season, and he comes out of it with a big weight drop.
Or a more accurate way to look at it is he comes out of it worse off at the weights vs Sir Dragonet
 

FallingLiefs

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To be honest to the eye the CP looked poor, It's a Cox Plate so it has a base performance that is quite high but barely scrapes in for mine. Mugatoo hard luck story coming out of a metrop I mean seriously cant be that good. I suspect AQ or RC go to their previous bests and they win or go very close. Heavy track at the valley it's a no form me. Prefer the CC especially the first two coming through toward top of weight scale with good margins back in the field.
 

FallingLiefs

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and Jug's right, the only relative weight factor is weight swing. He could carry 50kg but if Sir D goes around with 35kg it means nothing. 53.5kg is very, very harsh IMO. I gave him 52.5 in the MC thread OP and that's before something like AVD was nominated.
 

AvantGardener

Club Legend
Mar 13, 2016
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and Jug's right, the only relative weight factor is weight swing. He could carry 50kg but if Sir D goes around with 35kg it means nothing. 53.5kg is very, very harsh IMO. I gave him 52.5 in the MC thread OP and that's before something like AVD was nominated.
But for the other 22 horses he is racing it is a positive he is going WFA to HCP.

He isn't just racing Dragonet and Dragonet has queries about going, dist and whether he will get as charmed a run as well.
 

mcnulty

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Sep 18, 2019
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To be honest to the eye the CP looked poor, It's a Cox Plate so it has a base performance that is quite high but barely scrapes in for mine. Mugatoo hard luck story coming out of a metrop I mean seriously cant be that good. I suspect AQ or RC go to their previous bests and they win or go very close. Heavy track at the valley it's a no form me. Prefer the CC especially the first two coming through toward top of weight scale with good margins back in the field.
I’ll see your Mugatoo and raise you a The Chosen One. Plate definitely a stronger race for mine.

And SD is only one horse. SD can still be relatively well in at the weights.
 

FallingLiefs

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Jan 30, 2013
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I’ll see your Mugatoo and raise you a The Chosen One. Plate definitely a stronger race for mine.

And SD is only one horse. SD can still be relatively well in at the weights.
The Chosen One got a dream run and lost by near 1L and 5kg to AVD and VE in a sit/sprint. Those two are panels better than him.
 
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