Racing October Daily Punt - *Derby Day to finish us off *

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The Chosen One got a dream run and lost by near 1L and 5kg to AVD and VE in a sit/sprint. Those two are panels better than him.
As is RC who gave The Chosen One an absolute flogging in the Underwood. The point is you’re cherry picking with Mugatoo.
 
But for the other 22 horses he is racing it is a positive he is going WFA to HCP.

He isn't just racing Dragonet and Dragonet has queries about going, dist and whether he will get as charmed a run as well.

Order of weight by WFA (AKA Horses weighted as better horse than RC)


Anthony Van Dyck
Vow and Declare
Avilius
Verry Elleegant
Russian Camelot

end

Giving every other horse a head start. The question then becomes about ability and strength of Cox plate vs other races.
 
As is RC who gave The Chosen One an absolute flogging in the Underwood. The point is you’re cherry picking with Mugatoo.

The point is the cox plate isn't this invincible form line like many other years. The CC this year was well above average IMO and the CP well below I'd be surprised if many respected punters have the CP miles ahead of the CC winner like normal. CC is relevant this year.
 

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Would not be the least bit surprised to see the Lloyd sisters before the stewards to explain their riding tactics in r7 at Swan Hill there. Have a look at the replay where Madison sits her mount on the outside of the leader (which is reasonable) while Zoe elects to sit 3 wide on the favorite around the pair when there is panels of space until the turn to drop in behind them for a trail. Just strange to watch.
 
Order of weight by WFA (AKA Horses weighted as better horse than RC)


Anthony Van Dyck
Vow and Declare
Avilius
Verry Elleegant
Russian Camelot

end

Giving every other horse a head start. The question then becomes about ability and strength of Cox plate vs other races.
Except he is good at WFA unlike

Oceanex, Persan, Vow & Declare, Mustajeer, Prince of Arran, Warning, Finche, Etah James, Miami Bound, The Chosen One, Steel Prince, King of Leogrance, True Self

and could name a few more to varying degrees.
 
Except he is good at WFA unlike

Oceanex, Persan, Vow & Declare, Mustajeer, Prince of Arran, Warning, Finche, Etah James, Miami Bound, The Chosen One, Steel Prince, King of Leogrance, True Self

and could name a few more to varying degrees.

I don't see how this digressed to me disliking RC. He's an excellent horse who i've been on for a long time, under performed in a CP on a heavy track in what will not be recalled as a classic renewal. He's been treated poorly by the handicapper 53.5kg for a SA derby winning 3yo vs for instance the 53kg of Warning for a Vic Derby winning 4yo. The form will be scratchy out of this CP and if I am backing him it's off his underwood.

The weight differential is only relevant for form, just because its a WFA race doesn't instantly make it better than top weights running well in a Handicap. It generally does, but not always, sometimes best form isn't always the obvious race.
 
I don't see how this digressed to me disliking RC. He's an excellent horse who i've been on for a long time, under performed in a CP on a heavy track in what will not be recalled as a classic renewal. He's been treated poorly by the handicapper 53.5kg for a SA derby winning 3yo vs for instance the 53kg of Warning for a Vic Derby winning 4yo. The form will be scratchy out of this CP and if I am backing him it's off his underwood.

The weight differential is only relevant for form, just because its a WFA race doesn't instantly make it better than top weights running well in a Handicap. It generally does, but not always, sometimes best form isn't always the obvious race.
It didn't digress to you disliking RC. Its purely about the drop from WFA class to HCP class benefitting RC.

Did you see Warning in the SA Derby? Pretty sure he was still just in shot

None of the horses I listed have been top weights running well in a handicap.

Just because 4yoA and 4yoB are both weighted 2kg over WFA scale it doesn't mean the HCP has screwed them both. If 4yoA is a dogshit C grader at WFA well then yeah it is royally screwed but if 4yoB is a Gp1 WFA winning specimen then the HCP being above WFA scale is fine.
 
WFA to handicap is still only a positive if you have been weighted well, which he hasn't. No point listing the spuds who wouldn't perform at WFA when they aren't the ones he has to beat
 
Relative to the CC horses he is weighted well. He’ll be carrying around the same weight relative to VE and AVD that The Chosen One did.

Again I’m on the record as saying I don’t think he’ll be winning, but not because of the weight.
 
WFA to handicap is still only a positive if you have been weighted well, which he hasn't. No point listing the spuds who wouldn't perform at WFA when they aren't the ones he has to beat
The likes of Gallic Chieftain, Carif are in better WFA to Handicap... does not mean they are weighted well. They would need a bigger relief because they aren't WFA class type horses like Russian.
 
The likes of Gallic Chieftain, Carif are in better WFA to Handicap... does not mean they are weighted well. They would need a bigger relief because they aren't WFA class type horses like Russian.

DGAF what those plodderz have.

You know who else is WFA class? The Cox Plate winner who toweled up the Camel and now meets him better at the weights
 
DGAF what those plodderz have.

You know who else is WFA class? The Cox Plate winner who toweled up the Camel and now meets him better at the weights
Dragonet being down superbly for a WFA class horse doesn't discount that its still a positive for Camelot as well.
 
Dragonet being down superbly for a WFA class horse doesn't discount that its still a positive for Camelot as well.

Yes it does. Camel can't be better off here when the horse who gave him wind burn is the only other horse to back up and meets him better off at the weights.

He was already awfully weighted getting the same weight as an Irish Derby winner for winning the SA Derby but now even the straight comparison shows he is worse off to the only other horse.

If any of the other top 4 from the CP lined up here they would be meeting him much better off at the weights too. Its only a positive going from WFA to handicap if you are actually well handicapped to begin with
 

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Surprised the tabs opened, we were not able to stand at the pub for at least a couple months when they opened for beers with meals only, then tabs opened after that here in WA.

Must be crying out for those $$$ in vic with cup week here.
 
Will be interesting what restrictions are placed regarding numbers. Will customers be allowed to stay or do you simply place your bets and then leave
 
Will be interesting what restrictions are placed regarding numbers. Will customers be allowed to stay or do you simply place your bets and then leave
Thats what happened here in WA ,we werent allowed to use the machines.
I would walk in tell them my account number and either deposit or withdraw they marked the tickets and id leave again.
 
Geez they’re taking all day at Randwick. What could they possibly be doing? Totally put back my day now.
 
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