Racing October Daily Punt- Getting pasted by 80-1 pops from WA

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Gavin Excell

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Derby Day early look

Empire Rose is i think enhanced by Melody Belle. Opted out Cox Plate for this but is that NZ form a level below?
Coolmoore- Golden Rose form is key here with Bivouac and Exceedance the obvious
 

year of the cat

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Mar 27, 2006
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Shadow Hero was $2.50 Derby couple of weeks ago

Wins Spring Champion and horse it beats- Castlevechio runs a blunder Cox Plate- yet its blowing like a gale to $3.50

What's going on?
Imo, that was before both Thought of That and Soul Patch both put in excellent Derby trials. Just a readjustment of the market to reflect three legitimate contenders rather than only one as it appeared after the Spring Champion Stakes.

Still think Shadow Hero is the one to beat though. Happy with the more reasonable price now.
 

Mazza1234678

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Dec 2, 2017
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Shadow Hero was $2.50 Derby couple of weeks ago

Wins Spring Champion and horse it beats- Castlevechio runs a blunder Cox Plate- yet its blowing like a gale to $3.50

What's going on?
This 100%

Also FYI pointsbet got a promo as well 2 bucks to finish top 4 which is a bit fishy

I don’t trust it at all even though all the form says it’s the clear fav
 

Gavin Excell

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Flit is the lay of the century in the Wakeful. Hardly ran 1600m last start not going to run 2000m with at least 3kgs more than the rest of the field. Another puzzling placement by Cummings/Godolphin
At one stage they were talking Cox Plate so if that was serious Wakeful should be a simple job BUT not sure things all on song here
 

Mazza1234678

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Dec 2, 2017
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Flit is the lay of the century in the Wakeful. Hardly ran 1600m last start not going to run 2000m with at least 3kgs more than the rest of the field. Another puzzling placement by Cummings/Godolphin
Ride was revolting though

Should of won in a canter

Extra distance is a query
 

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99 Problems

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Aug 4, 2016
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Shadow Hero was $2.50 Derby couple of weeks ago

Wins Spring Champion and horse it beats- Castlevechio runs a blunder Cox Plate- yet its blowing like a gale to $3.50

What's going on?
Partly because nothing else had really put themselves in the frame as major competition at that stage, but mainly because corps can bet to whatever % they want in futures markets. Now they’re getting to at least a somewhat competitive %, and come Saturday Betfair will get that close enough to to 100% at the jump.
 

iluvparis

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Shadow Hero was $2.50 Derby couple of weeks ago

Wins Spring Champion and horse it beats- Castlevechio runs a blunder Cox Plate- yet its blowing like a gale to $3.50

What's going on?
Old mate that threw of Meechy has told everyone his horse is a dead cert #hypemerchant

Wouldn't worry about it - Ace High bolted in at $7 off the exact same prep
 

iluvparis

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Ace High had beaten a number of horses he was going to clash already
Ace High didn’t face opposition that bolted in in their previous starts
yes and he still started $7!?! That's why I wouldn't worry about the drift

He also wasn't still trying to break his maiden in bumfu** Idaho two starts ago
 
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