Strategy Official 2021 Planning Thread

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WaynesWorld19

Moderator
Nov 6, 2003
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All of the time or just a little? I like the sound of Stephenson playing as a midfielder from a SC perspective, but North have so few forwards as it is. Need to find and listen to that whole interview for context.
All teams are focusing on speed thru the midfield, as a result of the new rules .....with reduced interchanges, clubs will want more midfield rotations

North IMO have only a small number of players in their midfield rotations .....adding Stephenson is similar thinking to the Crows adding Milera .....both can cut the lines
 

Hai_Newman

Puppies are scary
Oct 17, 2017
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All teams are focusing on speed thru the midfield, as a result of the new rules .....with reduced interchanges, clubs will want more midfield rotations

North IMO have only a small number of players in their midfield rotations .....adding Stephenson is similar thinking to the Crows adding Milera .....both can cut the lines
Capture.PNG

Mummy likes this. :moustache:
 

hoddo

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 13, 2005
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Good to be back. Just started getting into it this week.

I’m going to go all in on overanalysis this preseason.

I’ve just translated all 2020 scores to what they would have (roughly) been with the scoring distribution curve of a season with 20 minute quarters.

I reckon gawn is truly valued at around $705k and Neale around $680k.
Interesting. I did something similar, although probably not as thoroughly as you have, and came up with similar values for them .... $695k and $660k
 

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Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
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I use a guess of average and games played to help pick players. I've pasted relevant premos over $500k below. Real average refers to what they score over the course of the season, with games missed counting as 70. The column on the right is essentially their value under this set of assumptions.

Player NamePriceNumber graph refGuess of games playedGuess of averageReal average$/point real av
Max Gawn
$751,400​
1​
20​
133​
127.3​
$5,904​
Lachie Neale
$721,800​
2​
21​
128​
125.4​
$5,758​
Jack Steele
$658,000​
3​
21​
118​
115.8​
$5,681​
Jake Lloyd
$656,400​
4​
22​
120​
120.0​
$5,470​
Clayton Oliver
$656,700​
5​
22​
118​
118.0​
$5,565​
Jack Macrae
$650,100​
6​
20​
118​
113.6​
$5,721​
Brodie Grundy
$648,200​
7​
21​
122​
119.6​
$5,418​
Jeremy Howe
$517,900​
8​
18​
105​
98.6​
$5,251​
Christian Petracca
$631,400​
9​
22​
115​
115.0​
$5,490​
Marcus Bontempelli
$623,900​
10​
21​
112​
110.1​
$5,667​
Zachary Merrett
$620,900​
11​
21​
112​
110.1​
$5,640​
Patrick Dangerfield
$611,900​
12​
20​
108​
104.5​
$5,853​
Tom Mitchell
$610,000​
13​
21​
115​
113.0​
$5,400​
Nat Fyfe
$608,300​
14​
18​
118​
109.3​
$5,567​
Jarryd Lyons
$604,600​
15​
20​
108​
104.5​
$5,783​
Matt Crouch
$594,700​
16​
20​
108​
104.5​
$5,688​
Scott Pendlebury
$592,200​
17​
20​
107​
103.6​
$5,714​
Travis Boak
$590,400​
18​
21​
110​
108.2​
$5,457​
Taylor Adams
$588,800​
19​
18​
112​
104.4​
$5,642​
Steele Sidebottom
$588,000​
20​
21​
108​
106.3​
$5,533​
Luke Ryan
$576,500​
21​
20​
107​
103.6​
$5,563​
Luke Parker
$571,100​
22​
21​
105​
103.4​
$5,523​
Andrew Gaff
$570,800​
23​
22​
106​
105.0​
$5,436​
Reilly O'Brien
$570,800​
24​
21​
105​
103.4​
$5,520​
Touk Miller
$569,200​
25​
20​
105​
101.8​
$5,590​
Hugh Greenwood
$567,300​
26​
20​
100​
97.3​
$5,832​
Rory Laird
$564,800​
27​
20​
102​
99.1​
$5,700​
Lachie Whitfield
$561,600​
28​
18​
105​
98.6​
$5,694​
Josh Dunkley
$560,200​
29​
20​
100​
97.3​
$5,759​
Ollie Wines
$560,600​
30​
19​
102​
97.6​
$5,742​
Rowan Marshall
$557,200​
31​
20​
102​
99.1​
$5,623​
Mitchell Duncan
$556,700​
32​
21​
102​
100.5​
$5,537​
Tim English
$551,200​
33​
20​
102​
99.1​
$5,563​
Brayden Maynard
$549,900​
34​
22​
102​
102.0​
$5,391​
Dylan Shiel
$548,000​
35​
20​
103​
100.0​
$5,480​
Jordan Ridley
$547,700​
36​
20​
100​
97.3​
$5,631​
Hugh McCluggage
$545,500​
37​
21​
105​
103.4​
$5,275​
Caleb Daniel
$545,500​
38​
21​
100​
98.6​
$5,530​
Callum Mills
$544,800​
39​
19​
100​
95.9​
$5,680​
Andrew Brayshaw
$544,200​
40​
21​
105​
103.4​
$5,263​
Sam Walsh
$543,300​
41​
22​
103​
103.0​
$5,275​
Dustin Martin
$541,600​
42​
21​
102​
100.5​
$5,387​
Tom Stewart
$538,000​
43​
20​
100​
97.3​
$5,531​
Jack Crisp
$533,200​
44​
22​
98​
98.0​
$5,441​
Michael Walters
$531,100​
45​
19​
98​
94.2​
$5,639​
Nick Haynes
$528,400​
46​
21​
98​
96.7​
$5,463​
Stephen Coniglio
$528,900​
47​
18​
100​
94.5​
$5,594​
Adam Saad
$526,200​
48​
21​
98​
96.7​
$5,440​
Patrick Cripps
$523,700​
49​
20​
110​
106.4​
$4,924​
Jarrod Berry
$521,500​
50​
20​
98​
95.5​
$5,463​
Scott Lycett
$520,700​
51​
17​
98​
91.6​
$5,682​
Tim Kelly
$517,400​
52​
21​
100​
98.6​
$5,246​
Luke McDonald
$512,900​
53​
21​
95​
93.9​
$5,464​
Andrew McGrath
$510,000​
54​
21​
98​
96.7​
$5,273​
 

Northernsoul74

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 19, 2016
8,515
11,798
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I use a guess of average and games played to help pick players. I've pasted relevant premos over $500k below. Real average refers to what they score over the course of the season, with games missed counting as 70. The column on the right is essentially their value under this set of assumptions.

Player NamePriceNumber graph refGuess of games playedGuess of averageReal average$/point real av
Max Gawn
$751,400​
1​
20​
133​
127.3​
$5,904​
Lachie Neale
$721,800​
2​
21​
128​
125.4​
$5,758​
Jack Steele
$658,000​
3​
21​
118​
115.8​
$5,681​
Jake Lloyd
$656,400​
4​
22​
120​
120.0​
$5,470​
Clayton Oliver
$656,700​
5​
22​
118​
118.0​
$5,565​
Jack Macrae
$650,100​
6​
20​
118​
113.6​
$5,721​
Brodie Grundy
$648,200​
7​
21​
122​
119.6​
$5,418​
Jeremy Howe
$517,900​
8​
18​
105​
98.6​
$5,251​
Christian Petracca
$631,400​
9​
22​
115​
115.0​
$5,490​
Marcus Bontempelli
$623,900​
10​
21​
112​
110.1​
$5,667​
Zachary Merrett
$620,900​
11​
21​
112​
110.1​
$5,640​
Patrick Dangerfield
$611,900​
12​
20​
108​
104.5​
$5,853​
Tom Mitchell
$610,000​
13​
21​
115​
113.0​
$5,400​
Nat Fyfe
$608,300​
14​
18​
118​
109.3​
$5,567​
Jarryd Lyons
$604,600​
15​
20​
108​
104.5​
$5,783​
Matt Crouch
$594,700​
16​
20​
108​
104.5​
$5,688​
Scott Pendlebury
$592,200​
17​
20​
107​
103.6​
$5,714​
Travis Boak
$590,400​
18​
21​
110​
108.2​
$5,457​
Taylor Adams
$588,800​
19​
18​
112​
104.4​
$5,642​
Steele Sidebottom
$588,000​
20​
21​
108​
106.3​
$5,533​
Luke Ryan
$576,500​
21​
20​
107​
103.6​
$5,563​
Luke Parker
$571,100​
22​
21​
105​
103.4​
$5,523​
Andrew Gaff
$570,800​
23​
22​
106​
105.0​
$5,436​
Reilly O'Brien
$570,800​
24​
21​
105​
103.4​
$5,520​
Touk Miller
$569,200​
25​
20​
105​
101.8​
$5,590​
Hugh Greenwood
$567,300​
26​
20​
100​
97.3​
$5,832​
Rory Laird
$564,800​
27​
20​
102​
99.1​
$5,700​
Lachie Whitfield
$561,600​
28​
18​
105​
98.6​
$5,694​
Josh Dunkley
$560,200​
29​
20​
100​
97.3​
$5,759​
Ollie Wines
$560,600​
30​
19​
102​
97.6​
$5,742​
Rowan Marshall
$557,200​
31​
20​
102​
99.1​
$5,623​
Mitchell Duncan
$556,700​
32​
21​
102​
100.5​
$5,537​
Tim English
$551,200​
33​
20​
102​
99.1​
$5,563​
Brayden Maynard
$549,900​
34​
22​
102​
102.0​
$5,391​
Dylan Shiel
$548,000​
35​
20​
103​
100.0​
$5,480​
Jordan Ridley
$547,700​
36​
20​
100​
97.3​
$5,631​
Hugh McCluggage
$545,500​
37​
21​
105​
103.4​
$5,275​
Caleb Daniel
$545,500​
38​
21​
100​
98.6​
$5,530​
Callum Mills
$544,800​
39​
19​
100​
95.9​
$5,680​
Andrew Brayshaw
$544,200​
40​
21​
105​
103.4​
$5,263​
Sam Walsh
$543,300​
41​
22​
103​
103.0​
$5,275​
Dustin Martin
$541,600​
42​
21​
102​
100.5​
$5,387​
Tom Stewart
$538,000​
43​
20​
100​
97.3​
$5,531​
Jack Crisp
$533,200​
44​
22​
98​
98.0​
$5,441​
Michael Walters
$531,100​
45​
19​
98​
94.2​
$5,639​
Nick Haynes
$528,400​
46​
21​
98​
96.7​
$5,463​
Stephen Coniglio
$528,900​
47​
18​
100​
94.5​
$5,594​
Adam Saad
$526,200​
48​
21​
98​
96.7​
$5,440​
Patrick Cripps
$523,700​
49​
20​
110​
106.4​
$4,924​
Jarrod Berry
$521,500​
50​
20​
98​
95.5​
$5,463​
Scott Lycett
$520,700​
51​
17​
98​
91.6​
$5,682​
Tim Kelly
$517,400​
52​
21​
100​
98.6​
$5,246​
Luke McDonald
$512,900​
53​
21​
95​
93.9​
$5,464​
Andrew McGrath
$510,000​
54​
21​
98​
96.7​
$5,273​
Cripps and Gawn the big outliers at either end.
 

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WaynesWorld19

Moderator
Nov 6, 2003
90,492
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If you want to watch the Port trial game ...... btw where's Nelso ?

The starting black team features skipper Tom Jonas, midfielder Travis Boak and young guns Xavier Duursma, Connor Rozee, Mitch Georgiades and Miles Bergman.

New recruits Orazio Fantasia and Aliir Aliir and draftees Lachie Jones, Ollie Lord and Taj Schofield will also suit up in black.

 

Schulzenfest

TheBrownDog
Feb 23, 2008
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If you want to watch the Port trial game ...... btw where's Nelso ?

The starting black team features skipper Tom Jonas, midfielder Travis Boak and young guns Xavier Duursma, Connor Rozee, Mitch Georgiades and Miles Bergman.

New recruits Orazio Fantasia and Aliir Aliir and draftees Lachie Jones, Ollie Lord and Taj Schofield will also suit up in black.

I'll be watching, happy to report back on anything interesting.
 

ImissFrosty

I miss frostball :(
Mar 4, 2020
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Am watching it coz I'm bored, halfway through the 1st and you can already tell that the man on the mark rule is making a big impact. Plenty of kicks on the 45. Very free flowing. Good kicks and goal scorers might be go to sc players.
 

Schulzenfest

TheBrownDog
Feb 23, 2008
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Unfortunately Lachie Jones looking a bit off the pace, his disposal has been pretty poor. Haven't seen much of Bergman.

Charlie Dixon is looking huge, playing a CHF role and getting up around the ground, that one dude on here who has Dixon should be very happy with his performance.

BOG so far is probably Aliir Aliir of all people. Was good for averages just under 80 in 2018 and 2019 at the Swans when played in defence before only averaging 60 last year playing a ruck/forward role that he clearly didn't like, so priced at only 321k this year. I'd expect he probably gets back around that 80 ppg mark this year. Possibly not enough to be worth picking in Classic at his price, but could be a good draft bargain for anybody who's playing draft this year.
 

A Bit Dusty

2017🏆2019🏆2020🏆
Oct 6, 2017
2,891
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AFL Club
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Unfortunately Lachie Jones looking a bit off the pace, his disposal has been pretty poor. Haven't seen much of Bergman.

Charlie Dixon is looking huge, playing a CHF role and getting up around the ground, that one dude on here who has Dixon should be very happy with his performance.

BOG so far is probably Aliir Aliir of all people. Was good for averages just under 80 in 2018 and 2019 at the Swans when played in defence before only averaging 60 last year playing a ruck/forward role that he clearly didn't like, so priced at only 321k this year. I'd expect he probably gets back around that 80 ppg mark this year. Possibly not enough to be worth picking in Classic at his price, but could be a good draft bargain for anybody who's playing draft this year.
He is a Defender they generally aren't the best players and he definately won't be a running half back but he could be a lockdown defender and score 50 points a game it would be ok having on the bench. You are looking at him from a team perspective which is how it should be when you support them but I'm seeing a possible bench defender in SC.
 
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