Strategy Official 2021 Planning Thread

gutsroy · Dec 11, 2020

WaynesWorld19 · Feb 11, 2021

Andrew Birch said:
All of the time or just a little? I like the sound of Stephenson playing as a midfielder from a SC perspective, but North have so few forwards as it is. Need to find and listen to that whole interview for context.

All teams are focusing on speed thru the midfield, as a result of the new rules .....with reduced interchanges, clubs will want more midfield rotations

North IMO have only a small number of players in their midfield rotations .....adding Stephenson is similar thinking to the Crows adding Milera .....both can cut the lines

Hai_Newman · Feb 11, 2021

WaynesWorld19 said:
All teams are focusing on speed thru the midfield, as a result of the new rules .....with reduced interchanges, clubs will want more midfield rotations

North IMO have only a small number of players in their midfield rotations .....adding Stephenson is similar thinking to the Crows adding Milera .....both can cut the lines

Mummy likes this.

hoddo · Feb 11, 2021

Suma Magic said:
Good to be back. Just started getting into it this week.

I’m going to go all in on overanalysis this preseason.

I’ve just translated all 2020 scores to what they would have (roughly) been with the scoring distribution curve of a season with 20 minute quarters.

I reckon gawn is truly valued at around $705k and Neale around $680k.

Interesting. I did something similar, although probably not as thoroughly as you have, and came up with similar values for them .... $695k and $660k

Judd_Magic · Feb 11, 2021

Hai_Newman said:
View attachment 1055493
Mummy likes this.

Looks like Iike a bloody vampire there..

Suma Magic · Feb 11, 2021

hoddo said:
Interesting. I did something similar, although probably not as thoroughly as you have, and came up with similar values for them .... $695k and $660k

nice one.

did you get a roughly similar overall change (like in the graph I posted)?

WaynesWorld19 · Feb 11, 2021

A Bit Dusty · Feb 11, 2021

WaynesWorld19 said:
View attachment 1055598

View attachment 1055599

Who the Eff is Murray?

WaynesWorld19 · Feb 11, 2021

A Bit Dusty said:
Who the Eff is Murray?

Nick Murray, brother of COLL Sam Murray .....training with Crows to get the Gibbs spare list spot

Suma Magic · Feb 11, 2021

I use a guess of average and games played to help pick players. I've pasted relevant premos over $500k below. Real average refers to what they score over the course of the season, with games missed counting as 70. The column on the right is essentially their value under this set of assumptions.

Player Name	Price	Number graph ref	Guess of games played	Guess of average	Real average	$/point real av
Max Gawn	$751,400	1	20	133	127.3	$5,904
Lachie Neale	$721,800	2	21	128	125.4	$5,758
Jack Steele	$658,000	3	21	118	115.8	$5,681
Jake Lloyd	$656,400	4	22	120	120.0	$5,470
Clayton Oliver	$656,700	5	22	118	118.0	$5,565
Jack Macrae	$650,100	6	20	118	113.6	$5,721
Brodie Grundy	$648,200	7	21	122	119.6	$5,418
Jeremy Howe	$517,900	8	18	105	98.6	$5,251
Christian Petracca	$631,400	9	22	115	115.0	$5,490
Marcus Bontempelli	$623,900	10	21	112	110.1	$5,667
Zachary Merrett	$620,900	11	21	112	110.1	$5,640
Patrick Dangerfield	$611,900	12	20	108	104.5	$5,853
Tom Mitchell	$610,000	13	21	115	113.0	$5,400
Nat Fyfe	$608,300	14	18	118	109.3	$5,567
Jarryd Lyons	$604,600	15	20	108	104.5	$5,783
Matt Crouch	$594,700	16	20	108	104.5	$5,688
Scott Pendlebury	$592,200	17	20	107	103.6	$5,714
Travis Boak	$590,400	18	21	110	108.2	$5,457
Taylor Adams	$588,800	19	18	112	104.4	$5,642
Steele Sidebottom	$588,000	20	21	108	106.3	$5,533
Luke Ryan	$576,500	21	20	107	103.6	$5,563
Luke Parker	$571,100	22	21	105	103.4	$5,523
Andrew Gaff	$570,800	23	22	106	105.0	$5,436
Reilly O'Brien	$570,800	24	21	105	103.4	$5,520
Touk Miller	$569,200	25	20	105	101.8	$5,590
Hugh Greenwood	$567,300	26	20	100	97.3	$5,832
Rory Laird	$564,800	27	20	102	99.1	$5,700
Lachie Whitfield	$561,600	28	18	105	98.6	$5,694
Josh Dunkley	$560,200	29	20	100	97.3	$5,759
Ollie Wines	$560,600	30	19	102	97.6	$5,742
Rowan Marshall	$557,200	31	20	102	99.1	$5,623
Mitchell Duncan	$556,700	32	21	102	100.5	$5,537
Tim English	$551,200	33	20	102	99.1	$5,563
Brayden Maynard	$549,900	34	22	102	102.0	$5,391
Dylan Shiel	$548,000	35	20	103	100.0	$5,480
Jordan Ridley	$547,700	36	20	100	97.3	$5,631
Hugh McCluggage	$545,500	37	21	105	103.4	$5,275
Caleb Daniel	$545,500	38	21	100	98.6	$5,530
Callum Mills	$544,800	39	19	100	95.9	$5,680
Andrew Brayshaw	$544,200	40	21	105	103.4	$5,263
Sam Walsh	$543,300	41	22	103	103.0	$5,275
Dustin Martin	$541,600	42	21	102	100.5	$5,387
Tom Stewart	$538,000	43	20	100	97.3	$5,531
Jack Crisp	$533,200	44	22	98	98.0	$5,441
Michael Walters	$531,100	45	19	98	94.2	$5,639
Nick Haynes	$528,400	46	21	98	96.7	$5,463
Stephen Coniglio	$528,900	47	18	100	94.5	$5,594
Adam Saad	$526,200	48	21	98	96.7	$5,440
Patrick Cripps	$523,700	49	20	110	106.4	$4,924
Jarrod Berry	$521,500	50	20	98	95.5	$5,463
Scott Lycett	$520,700	51	17	98	91.6	$5,682
Tim Kelly	$517,400	52	21	100	98.6	$5,246
Luke McDonald	$512,900	53	21	95	93.9	$5,464
Andrew McGrath	$510,000	54	21	98	96.7	$5,273

Suma Magic · Feb 11, 2021

And here is a graph showing $ per point (y axis) compared to price (x axis). The further below (and away from the line) the better. e.g. 7 (Grundy) is good and 26 (Greenwood) is bad. I have left the outliers off the graph (Gawn, Neale and Cripps).

Suma Magic · Feb 11, 2021

Be interested in any views about the assumptions for games and points, as they are just guesses.

Northernsoul74 · Feb 11, 2021

Suma Magic said:
I use a guess of average and games played to help pick players. I've pasted relevant premos over $500k below. Real average refers to what they score over the course of the season, with games missed counting as 70. The column on the right is essentially their value under this set of assumptions.

Player Name Price Number graph ref Guess of games played Guess of average Real average $/point real av
Max Gawn
$751,400
1
20
133
127.3
$5,904
Lachie Neale
$721,800
2
21
128
125.4
$5,758
Jack Steele
$658,000
3
21
118
115.8
$5,681
Jake Lloyd
$656,400
4
22
120
120.0
$5,470
Clayton Oliver
$656,700
5
22
118
118.0
$5,565
Jack Macrae
$650,100
6
20
118
113.6
$5,721
Brodie Grundy
$648,200
7
21
122
119.6
$5,418
Jeremy Howe
$517,900
8
18
105
98.6
$5,251
Christian Petracca
$631,400
9
22
115
115.0
$5,490
Marcus Bontempelli
$623,900
10
21
112
110.1
$5,667
Zachary Merrett
$620,900
11
21
112
110.1
$5,640
Patrick Dangerfield
$611,900
12
20
108
104.5
$5,853
Tom Mitchell
$610,000
13
21
115
113.0
$5,400
Nat Fyfe
$608,300
14
18
118
109.3
$5,567
Jarryd Lyons
$604,600
15
20
108
104.5
$5,783
Matt Crouch
$594,700
16
20
108
104.5
$5,688
Scott Pendlebury
$592,200
17
20
107
103.6
$5,714
Travis Boak
$590,400
18
21
110
108.2
$5,457
Taylor Adams
$588,800
19
18
112
104.4
$5,642
Steele Sidebottom
$588,000
20
21
108
106.3
$5,533
Luke Ryan
$576,500
21
20
107
103.6
$5,563
Luke Parker
$571,100
22
21
105
103.4
$5,523
Andrew Gaff
$570,800
23
22
106
105.0
$5,436
Reilly O'Brien
$570,800
24
21
105
103.4
$5,520
Touk Miller
$569,200
25
20
105
101.8
$5,590
Hugh Greenwood
$567,300
26
20
100
97.3
$5,832
Rory Laird
$564,800
27
20
102
99.1
$5,700
Lachie Whitfield
$561,600
28
18
105
98.6
$5,694
Josh Dunkley
$560,200
29
20
100
97.3
$5,759
Ollie Wines
$560,600
30
19
102
97.6
$5,742
Rowan Marshall
$557,200
31
20
102
99.1
$5,623
Mitchell Duncan
$556,700
32
21
102
100.5
$5,537
Tim English
$551,200
33
20
102
99.1
$5,563
Brayden Maynard
$549,900
34
22
102
102.0
$5,391
Dylan Shiel
$548,000
35
20
103
100.0
$5,480
Jordan Ridley
$547,700
36
20
100
97.3
$5,631
Hugh McCluggage
$545,500
37
21
105
103.4
$5,275
Caleb Daniel
$545,500
38
21
100
98.6
$5,530
Callum Mills
$544,800
39
19
100
95.9
$5,680
Andrew Brayshaw
$544,200
40
21
105
103.4
$5,263
Sam Walsh
$543,300
41
22
103
103.0
$5,275
Dustin Martin
$541,600
42
21
102
100.5
$5,387
Tom Stewart
$538,000
43
20
100
97.3
$5,531
Jack Crisp
$533,200
44
22
98
98.0
$5,441
Michael Walters
$531,100
45
19
98
94.2
$5,639
Nick Haynes
$528,400
46
21
98
96.7
$5,463
Stephen Coniglio
$528,900
47
18
100
94.5
$5,594
Adam Saad
$526,200
48
21
98
96.7
$5,440
Patrick Cripps
$523,700
49
20
110
106.4
$4,924
Jarrod Berry
$521,500
50
20
98
95.5
$5,463
Scott Lycett
$520,700
51
17
98
91.6
$5,682
Tim Kelly
$517,400
52
21
100
98.6
$5,246
Luke McDonald
$512,900
53
21
95
93.9
$5,464
Andrew McGrath
$510,000
54
21
98
96.7
$5,273

Cripps and Gawn the big outliers at either end.

Suma Magic · Feb 11, 2021

Northernsoul74 said:
Cripps and Gawn the big outliers at either end.

yeah. If you assume that Gawn gets extra points by being a capt who scores more than other capt options, then he improves a bit. Eg if he gets you 5 extra capt points he decreases by about $300 I think.

Here2tellyouwhy · Feb 12, 2021

Suma Magic said:
This is what i got for all players. e.g if Lloyd got 122 then he might be $30k over-priced.

View attachment 1055192

Made it easier for the math plebs

Andrew Birch · Feb 12, 2021

.

A Bit Dusty said:
Who the Eff is Murray?

WaynesWorld19 · Feb 13, 2021

If you want to watch the Port trial game ...... btw where's Nelso ?

The starting black team features skipper Tom Jonas, midfielder Travis Boak and young guns Xavier Duursma, Connor Rozee, Mitch Georgiades and Miles Bergman.

New recruits Orazio Fantasia and Aliir Aliir and draftees Lachie Jones, Ollie Lord and Taj Schofield will also suit up in black.

Schulzenfest · Feb 13, 2021

WaynesWorld19 said:
If you want to watch the Port trial game ...... btw where's Nelso ?

The starting black team features skipper Tom Jonas, midfielder Travis Boak and young guns Xavier Duursma, Connor Rozee, Mitch Georgiades and Miles Bergman.

New recruits Orazio Fantasia and Aliir Aliir and draftees Lachie Jones, Ollie Lord and Taj Schofield will also suit up in black.

I'll be watching, happy to report back on anything interesting.

ImissFrosty · Feb 13, 2021

Am watching it coz I'm bored, halfway through the 1st and you can already tell that the man on the mark rule is making a big impact. Plenty of kicks on the 45. Very free flowing. Good kicks and goal scorers might be go to sc players.

A Bit Dusty · Feb 13, 2021

Lan Jones will be his new name now he looks really good.

Schulzenfest · Feb 13, 2021

Unfortunately Lachie Jones looking a bit off the pace, his disposal has been pretty poor. Haven't seen much of Bergman.

Charlie Dixon is looking huge, playing a CHF role and getting up around the ground, that one dude on here who has Dixon should be very happy with his performance.

BOG so far is probably Aliir Aliir of all people. Was good for averages just under 80 in 2018 and 2019 at the Swans when played in defence before only averaging 60 last year playing a ruck/forward role that he clearly didn't like, so priced at only 321k this year. I'd expect he probably gets back around that 80 ppg mark this year. Possibly not enough to be worth picking in Classic at his price, but could be a good draft bargain for anybody who's playing draft this year.

Northernsoul74 · Feb 13, 2021

A Bit Dusty said:
Lan Jones will be his new name now he looks really good.

? See above.

ImissFrosty · Feb 13, 2021

Lachie Jones has thighs two times the size of Hurns. Moves like it too, slow, turnover machine once there's a little bit of pressure. Not good signs.
Duursma playing on ball, Rozee forward.

Schulzenfest · Feb 13, 2021

Rozee playing high half forward, looks really good, has already kicked a couple goals.

ImissFrosty · Feb 13, 2021

Who's number 2 for the white team?
Schulzenfest
Looks pretty good.

A Bit Dusty · Feb 13, 2021

Schulzenfest said:
Unfortunately Lachie Jones looking a bit off the pace, his disposal has been pretty poor. Haven't seen much of Bergman.

Charlie Dixon is looking huge, playing a CHF role and getting up around the ground, that one dude on here who has Dixon should be very happy with his performance.

BOG so far is probably Aliir Aliir of all people. Was good for averages just under 80 in 2018 and 2019 at the Swans when played in defence before only averaging 60 last year playing a ruck/forward role that he clearly didn't like, so priced at only 321k this year. I'd expect he probably gets back around that 80 ppg mark this year. Possibly not enough to be worth picking in Classic at his price, but could be a good draft bargain for anybody who's playing draft this year.

He is a Defender they generally aren't the best players and he definately won't be a running half back but he could be a lockdown defender and score 50 points a game it would be ok having on the bench. You are looking at him from a team perspective which is how it should be when you support them but I'm seeing a possible bench defender in SC.

Rd 6 Reviews + Club boards »

Rd 6 Pre-Games + Your Club Board

NRL Round 7 🏉

EPL Matchdays 34, 35, & 36 ⚽ Tip Now

Strategy Official 2021 Planning Thread

Brownlow Medallist

Moderator

Puppies are scary

Norm Smith Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Moderator

2017🏆2019🏆2020🏆

Moderator

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

SA GREAT

The Night Manager

Moderator

TheBrownDog

Murphy's Law

2017🏆2019🏆2020🏆

TheBrownDog

Brownlow Medallist

Murphy's Law

TheBrownDog

Murphy's Law

2017🏆2019🏆2020🏆

Similar threads