Analysis Oldest / Youngest lists, post drafts

Captain chaos

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Day Off
Jul 13, 2016
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Geelong
That is absolute crap!
Every team has a choice and with Geelong, it's all about relevancy. That is fine and it's now been a very profitable path but ultimately, you are judged on by premierships. It seems as though the powers that be at Geelong, are all too comfortable in ensuring we remain in the finals hunt but without any serious challenge for another grand final berth.
Really, what is the point of that?
If you knew we could finish 6th next year and bow out of the finals in week 1 or finish 10th and pump in 15-20 games into a batch of young blokes, what would you choose?

We finished on top not sixth and yet again took the gas under Scott.
 

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worldlylizard19

Debutant
Sep 23, 2012
94
165
AFL Club
Geelong
That is absolute crap!
Every team has a choice and with Geelong, it's all about relevancy. That is fine and it's now been a very profitable path but ultimately, you are judged on by premierships. It seems as though the powers that be at Geelong, are all too comfortable in ensuring we remain in the finals hunt but without any serious challenge for another grand final berth.
Really, what is the point of that?
If you knew we could finish 6th next year and bow out of the finals in week 1 or finish 10th and pump in 15-20 games into a batch of young blokes, what would you choose?
Geelong haven't changed at all, this is how they have always been. There was a brief time when their captain walked out on them and nobody wanted to go to them. They were forced to rebuild through the draft at that time.
 

Socrates2

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2015
8,698
9,392
AFL Club
Richmond
ClubSenior ListRookiesAverage Age↧Age RankAverage GamesGames RankAverage GoalsGoals RankAverage VotesVotes Rank
Collingwood37 players5 (+3 cat B)25.0 years1st75.9 games4th49.6 goals4th14.3 votes2nd
West Coast37 players6 (+0 cat B)24.9 years2nd78.9 games3rd54.0 goals3rd11.5 votes5th
Hawthorn36 players7 (+2 cat B)24.8 years3rd80.1 games2nd56.4 goals2nd10.4 votes7th
Geelong38 players6 (+2 cat B)24.7 years4th80.7 games1st62.7 goals1st21.7 votes1st
Greater Western Sydney38 players5 (+2 cat B)24.7 years5th68.9 games6th33.2 goals12th9.8 votes8th
North Melbourne39 players5 (+1 cat B)24.6 years6th67.4 games8th37.8 goals10th8.3 votes13th
St Kilda38 players6 (+1 cat B)24.4 years7th62.2 games10th29.2 goals16th6.4 votes17th
Essendon39 players3 (+2 cat B)24.3 years8th60.0 games12th38.4 goals9th8.4 votes12th
Western Bulldogs40 players4 (+1 cat B)24.2 years9th59.0 games14th32.6 goals13th7.3 votes15th
Richmond38 players5 (+1 cat B)24.1 years10th68.8 games7th49.5 goals5th12.9 votes3rd
Port Adelaide36 players8 (+1 cat B)24.0 years11th69.0 games5th45.3 goals7th12.2 votes4th
Adelaide37 players6 (+0 cat B)24.0 years12th59.2 games13th32.1 goals14th9.3 votes9th
Melbourne38 players4 (+1 cat B)24.0 years13th60.4 games11th25.4 goals17th7.8 votes14th
Carlton39 players5 (+1 cat B)23.8 years14th64.3 games9th42.8 goals8th8.5 votes11th
Brisbane38 players6 (+2 cat B)23.6 years15th56.2 games15th30.8 goals15th7.2 votes16th
Fremantle37 players7 (+1 cat B)23.6 years16th54.1 games17th33.8 goals11th9.2 votes10th
Sydney36 players7 (+2 cat B)23.6 years17th55.6 games16th48.6 goals6th11.3 votes6th
Gold Coast40 players7 (+3 cat B)23.4 years

source: draftguru
Wow, looking at those stats, Richmond could be premiership contenders for the next 6 years!
 

Marcel Proust

Premiership Player
Sep 6, 2018
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9 years looking at 5 year span for each is 45 data points and with each one favoured the older list on average its pretty conclusive that there's no advantage in having a younger average list age.
na not really

hawks too won four flags in this period; starting with a very young / tanking list and ended up with dads army
 

Furn2

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 27, 2012
9,151
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Hawthorn
na not really

hawks too won four flags in this period; starting with a very young / tanking list and ended up with dads army
All 18 teams were included in the data and both the oldest 3 and oldest 6 were compared to the youngest 3 and 6 and in every following year the older group outperformed the younger group.

Pulling out one team representing 1/18th of the data and making a random statement doesn't prove anything i'm afraid.

so unless you have any actual evidence that list age means anything other than being older is marginally better, this thread is a waste of time.
 

Marcel Proust

Premiership Player
Sep 6, 2018
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All 18 teams were included in the data and both the oldest 3 and oldest 6 were compared to the youngest 3 and 6 and in every following year the older group outperformed the younger group.

Pulling out one team representing 1/18th of the data and making a random statement doesn't prove anything i'm afraid.

so unless you have any actual evidence that list age means anything other than being older is marginally better, this thread is a waste of time.
it does cause the idea is to win everything else doesnt matter; if a team goes from 12th-9th or the opposite over a course of three years or whatever really matters very little in the grand scheme

its logical a young team should get better, such as Brisbane. of course they could stagnate or fall but youd rather be in their shoes than say hawthorn

at least use a bigger sample size to give your data some merit if you are determined to go down that path
 

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Furn2

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 27, 2012
9,151
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Hawthorn
it does cause the idea is to win everything else doesnt matter; if a team goes from 12th-9th or the opposite over a course of three years or whatever really matters very little in the grand scheme

its logical a young team should get better, such as Brisbane. of course they could stagnate or fall but youd rather be in their shoes than say hawthorn

at least use a bigger sample size to give your data some merit if you are determined to go down that path
Its a massive sample. 18 teams times 9 years looking at 5 years ahead, covering 12 years of footy. Its the entire modern era. every finishing postion.

The hard facts are that being young makes you no more likely to improve and being old makes you no more likely to drop off.
 

Marcel Proust

Premiership Player
Sep 6, 2018
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Its a massive sample. 18 teams times 9 years looking at 5 years ahead, covering 12 years of footy. Its the entire modern era. every finishing postion.

The hard facts are that being young makes you no more likely to improve and being old makes you no more likely to drop off.
with respect; i reckon thats completely bullshit

just my 2c who knows, could be wrong

furthermore the past isnt indicative of future results

there are for example well run lists like geelong which are the exception (now, but the cliff might be coming)
 

NoobPie

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2016
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Collingwood
You hear the talk about hawthorn being old but
Cox, Sidebottom, Roughead, Howe, Beams, Reid, Greenwood, Mayne, Varcose, Pendlebury
is a lot of class to have to replace one day in the future

Collingwood are a very strong team [colling v wce gf, colling v gws prelim] but one wonders how long the window is open for?

Ok then, had a look at this given subsequent discussions

Here are Richmond's and Collingwood's 29-and-over players

1575250579006.png


So Collingwood has 2 more than Richmond which would explain our higher average.....but which of these groups would one like the challenge of replacing over the next few years I wonder?
 

HairyO

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 13, 2015
19,544
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Hawthorn
Ok then, had a look at this given subsequent discussions

Here are Richmond's and Collingwood's 29-and-over players

View attachment 787859

So Collingwood has 2 more than Richmond which would explain our higher average.....but which of these groups would one like the challenge of replacing over the next few years I wonder?
Why 29 and not 31?

What is the average age of players retiring these days? Not delisted, but retiring (whether injury, age, or whatever).
 

Kwality

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Aug 14, 2011
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Here are Richmond's and Collingwood's 29-and-over players
Fair attempt to demonstrate people drawing lines to suit their own purpose ( e.g pump up the Tiges flat tyres ;) ).

What the well respected 29-and-over players stat demonstrates ..... it excludes 28 year olds!
 
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Jason mp

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Aug 31, 2015
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Brisbane Lions
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Valleys. Chelsea.
Ok then, had a look at this given subsequent discussions

Here are Richmond's and Collingwood's 29-and-over players

View attachment 787859

So Collingwood has 2 more than Richmond which would explain our higher average.....but which of these groups would one like the challenge of replacing over the next few years I wonder?
The list of Tigers veterans has a lot more elite talent than the Magpies list IMO.... so I agree it will be harder to replace although all of them could have 2-5 years left in them, scary for the rest of the competition.
 

NoobPie

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2016
5,135
3,386
AFL Club
Collingwood
Why 29 and not 31?

What is the average age of players retiring these days? Not delisted, but retiring (whether injury, age, or whatever).
Because I was responding precisely to a post that implicitly used that cut off and was asking "how much class" will need replacing


The list of Tigers veterans has a lot more elite talent than the Magpies list IMO.... so I agree it will be harder to replace although all of them could have 2-5 years left in them, scary for the rest of the competition.
That is true. Some players are playing career best footy in their early thirties nowadays. It is certainly still true that after 29ish probabilistically 1) you are more likely to get injured 2) you are more likely to experience declining performance

The main point I was making is to not draw conclusions by just looking at aggregate age figures.
 

HairyO

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 13, 2015
19,544
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Hawthorn
Because I was responding precisely to a post that implicitly used that cut off and was asking "how much class" will need replacing
At the moment it is zero. In 10 years it is probably 90%. The problem is people seem to be using completely arbitrary ages.

Is there a particular age where players suddenly face far higher risks of non-contact injuries?

Is there a particular age where players suddenly start retiring in greater numbers?

If not, average age literally means nothing. Because there is simply not going to be a correlation to any significant result.
 

swiftdog

Premiership Player
Sep 26, 2005
4,164
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melbourne
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Collingwood
Ok then, had a look at this given subsequent discussions

Here are Richmond's and Collingwood's 29-and-over players

View attachment 787859

So Collingwood has 2 more than Richmond which would explain our higher average.....but which of these groups would one like the challenge of replacing over the next few years I wonder?
Just to add to this regarding Collingwood’s “old” list. Here are the results from Collingwood’s best and fairest this year:

Copeland Trophy 2019:
1. Grundy - 25
2. Pendlebury - 31
3. Crisp - 26
4. Treloar - 26
5. Maynard - 23
6. Sidebottom - 28
7. Phillips - 23
8. Howe - 29
9. Mihocek - 26
10. Roughead - 29

This also doesn’t include De Goey (23), Adams (26), Moore (23) and Stephenson (20) who all missed considerable amounts of footy in 2019 and are arguably top 10 players at the club.

Sure Collingwood’s top 10 isn’t full of youth but mostly players in their prime. Regardless, it’s pretty clear that Collingwood’s list is well-placed for the short- and medium-term despite some questionable interpretations of their average age.
 

Meteoric Rise

All Australian
Feb 4, 2008
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Richmond
with respect; i reckon thats completely bullshit

just my 2c who knows, could be wrong

furthermore the past isnt indicative of future results

there are for example well run lists like geelong which are the exception (now, but the cliff might be coming)
Enjoying the thread. These contributions from Furn2 are in my opinion spot on and it is harsh and wrong to describe his post as bullshit without anything of substance to support your point.

When you say the past isn’t indicative of future results, that is wrong in this case. I think and hope what you mean is to quote the oft used financial industry warning that past performance is no guarantee of future results. The difference in the two statements appears subtle but is in reality quite stark. I think what Furn2’s table shows is that average of past performance in terms of list age has indeed been a reliable indicator of average future results here.

What it shows is that, as we might expect, the older lists are performing better instantly, and the younger lists on average performing worse, and the average gap is in the 4-5 ladder position range, depending on which sample you use(the top 3 v bottom 3 or the top 6 v bottom 6.)

The next thing it shows is that 3 years later, as we might expect the younger lists are on average improving and older lists are going backwards, but not enough to bridge the gap entirely. So if you project 3 years the lists that were older at the starting point are only 1-1.5 ladder positions above the lists that were younger at the starting point. Beyond that point the gap begins to slowly widen again. So this seems to put the lie to any assertion that a list that is younger now will in future be expected to overtake the clubs with older lists in future years. I would be interested to see if there are trends within the sample Furn2 has used.

Furn2’s table may help to explain why clubs like Hawthorn and Geelong seem to be making a conscious effort to keep at the older end of the list age spectrum. My concern on this policy is that there is probably a massive difference between an older lists that are compiled deliberately on one hand(the current method being employed by Cats and Hawks) and more organically which was how they arrived at their successful periods. What seems to work for the multiple premiership teams is something along the following lines:

  • bottom out, go to pointy end of draft accumulate 5-6 top class players of a similar age...Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Franklin, Lewis etc... Bartel, Ablett, Kelly, Johnson, etc...Cotchin, Riewoldt, Rance, Edwards, Martin
  • Later add class mature recruits to fill needs...Burgoyne, Hale, Lake Gibson, Guerra etc...Podsiadly, Ottens, Harley....Houli, Grigg, Nankervis, Caddy, Prestia.
The jury is well and truly out as to whether you can skip the first step and just try to keep a constantly older group of key players by recruiting from other clubs without substantially going to the first round of the draft, and consistently win finals across multiple successive seasons. I think one of the reasons this is tougher to pull off is I would expect you pay higher salary for a player to come to your club on average than you would to get a player of a similar performance to stay at your club if you have drafted him. So you end up a class player or two short because of salary cap restrictions.

If the Cats or Hawks start winning flags again with their current list methods to the fore then things will change in relation to the value of drafting players v recruiting mature aged players. I do not expect this to happen though.
 

catscollector

All Australian
Jun 30, 2018
704
732
AFL Club
Geelong
Geelong haven't changed at all, this is how they have always been. There was a brief time when their captain walked out on them and nobody wanted to go to them. They were forced to rebuild through the draft at that time.
Go and have a look at the team that faced the Lions in the 2004 Prelim final and you can see we built the team from homegrown talent and did not look for outside top ups (Ottens, Mooney the exceptions). In part, the nucleus of our champion team had to start out together and experience the dark days of consistent belting's and narrow defeats.
That was Bomber Thompson for you. A man who did not top up his list with mature aged has-been's from other clubs like Chris Scott does year after year (Jenkins + Steven added to the list as we speak).
 

Marcel Proust

Premiership Player
Sep 6, 2018
4,919
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Richmond
Enjoying the thread. These contributions from Furn2 are in my opinion spot on and it is harsh and wrong to describe his post as bullshit without anything of substance to support your point.
just my opinion. however;

hawks: ultra young team -> four flags -> now old list and rebuilding via recycled players

gws: very young team -> had a lot of success and consistent challenging (no premiership yet however) as the list matures

There is no sure thng the suns will improve however given how young they are and the talent in King, Lukosius, Rankine, Anderson, Rowell, Flanders, Sharp... if they hang around they are every chance.

its blindly obvious the Brisbane list is lots of talent too.

When you say the past isn’t indicative of future results, that is wrong in this case. I think and hope what you mean is to quote the oft used financial industry warning that past performance is no guarantee of future results. The difference in the two statements appears subtle but is in reality quite stark. I think what Furn2’s table shows is that average of past performance in terms of list age has indeed been a reliable indicator of average future results here.
im both cases, football lists and super funds its a correct statement - could also argue the entire modern period is a bit of an aberration due to the lesser talent pool / expansion teams

the cats are the most successful club since the bombers 80-00 period, they are the exception imo largely living on the dynasty with cheap father son selections. However they have a quite mature list too these days.

The next few season will be very interesting for the Tigers, Hawks, Cats, WCE, Pies - we will see how the FurnTHeory stacks up
 
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Marcel Proust

Premiership Player
Sep 6, 2018
4,919
9,655
#BigBigSound
AFL Club
Richmond
Ok then, had a look at this given subsequent discussions

Here are Richmond's and Collingwood's 29-and-over players

View attachment 787859

So Collingwood has 2 more than Richmond which would explain our higher average.....but which of these groups would one like the challenge of replacing over the next few years I wonder?
Yep, both teams will have its challenges. Its interesting Dusty is 3 month younger than the still project player Cox

Pretty much all the top teams outside of the Giants are going to have a lot of important list building decisions coming up

richmond winning the flag without Rance being an option is a positive sign at least for the future planning in the short-medium term

the pies have a lot of talent in that group its going to be a juggling act for bucks.
 

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