Analysis On the road

[GremioPower]

Here's our win-loss stats against top 8 sides since 2013:

YEAR	GAMES	HOME WINS	HOME LOSSES	AWAY WINS	AWAY LOSSES	NOTES
2013	9 (10)	2	4	0	3 (4)	brackets incl. ESS and CARL
2014	9	3	2	0	4
2015	13	3	4	3	3	Lost home Showdown; won away Showdown
2016	10	0	6	1	3	Lost both Showdowns
2017	9	0	3	2	4	Lost both Showdowns
2018	9	2	3	1	3
2019	10	1	4	2	3

2020 is a bit funny. Against the top 8, we:

• We went 2-1 at Adelaide Oval
• We won another "home" game at Metricon
• We went 0-1 playing away at the opposition's actual home ground
• We went 1-1 in "away" games at the Gabba and Metricon

Still, I don't think it's playing away that's the problem. We don't beat good teams enough whether we play at home or on the road.

2013-2019
Home: 11-26 (29.7%)
Away: 9-23 (28.1%)
Total: 20-49 (29.0%)

Our record against Bottom-10 clubs (2013-2019): 65-20 (76.5%)

We have been too good to be at the bottom and too bad to be at the top. "Mediocrity" is the word to describe us.

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Wouldn't this be more or less the same for all clubs, exceptions being maybe Richmond or Geelong?

Of course we'll have a better record against poorer teams, because they aren't as good. And it follows that unless you're consistently top 2 every year, your record against the top 8 is going to be less than 50/50.

The issue is that we just haven't been good enough overall. I think there would be equally as much outcry if we kept upsetting top teams but then consistently drop games against the bottom 6.

One would need to do this for all other 17 clubs.


From 2013-2020
Top-8: 24-52 (31.6%)
Bot-10: 75-20 (78.9%)
Overall: 99-72 (57.9%)

Where on those three ladders would we be?

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Season averages (8 seasons):
Top-8: 3 - 6.5
Bot-10: 9.4 - 2.5
Overall: 12.4 - 9

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

A 16-6 or 17-5 season usually gets you top spot (2014,2015,2016,2017,2019) or 2nd spot (2018) since 2013.

3 or 4 of those 5 or 6 losses are likely to be against the other top 8 sides. It means most seasons, most if not all of the top 8 sides wont have a 50%+ win record against the other top 8 sides.

 

[Janus]

A 16-6 or 17-5 season usually gets you top spot (2014,2015,2016,2017,2019) or 2nd spot (2018) since 2013.

3 or 4 of those 5 or 6 losses are likely to be against the other top 8 sides. It means most seasons, most if not all of the top 8 sides wont have a 50%+ win record against the other top 8 sides.

I’d understand this thread if this was a first past the post competition and winning the minor premiership meant something. No one cares.

We play Western Bulldogs twice, Adelaide twice, Collingwood twice, Gold Coast, Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Sydney, GWS, Melbourne and Geelong. If we don’t finish top two something is seriously wrong.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I’d understand this thread if this was a first past the post competition and winning the minor premiership meant something. No one cares.

We play Western Bulldogs twice, Adelaide twice, Collingwood twice, Gold Coast, Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Sydney, GWS, Melbourne and Geelong. If we don’t finish top two something is seriously wrong.

Nobody might care about winning the minor premiership but finishing 1st or 2nd still gives you the best chance to make a GF and therefore win a flag. Richmond don't care because if they finish 3rd, there is a good chance they play a home QF at the MCG. Non vic sides don't get that luxury.

 

[agmsy]

3 or 4 of those 5 or 6 losses are likely to be against the other top 8 sides. It means most seasons, most if not all of the top 8 sides wont have a 50%+ win record against the other top 8 sides.

Logically, if you're looking just at games played between top 8 sides, the mean win rate will always be 50% (if you're happy to treat a draw as half a win for each side).

Now, you could still have more teams below the mean than above it in a given season, but it would be interesting to see how our top 8 win rate compares to other sides.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

In 2004 we had a 17-5 season, 11-1 at Footy Park and 6-4 on the road. We are 3-0 and 2-2 in 2021.

Against final 8 sides, we were 5-0 at home and 1-3 on the road.

On the road, we lost to
2nd Brisbane at the Gabba by 37pts,
5th Melbourne at MCG 53pts, and
8th Essendon at Docklands by 40 pts.
We beat WCE at Subi by 3 pts. The rounds were 11, 4, 18 and 2 respectively.

I wouldn't be surprised if we register something like this in 2021. Already matched the first two losses margns in 2004 with the Brisbane and WCE away losses. Based on the top 8 at the moment we play 5 games at home and 3 away.

So if we go 5-0 and 1-2 or 4-1 and 1-2, then what are the dramas ?? The only away game left vs a likely top 8 side is Bulldogs Rd 23.

The other 2 loses in 2004 was a home showdown by 32 pts, the crows finished 12th and against North who finished 10th by 92 pts at Docklands. Wouldn't be surprised if we drop a couple of games against sides that end up in the 9th to 13th position on the ladder, say GWS in Canberra and drop a game at home

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Road games left in 2021.

Rd 10 Collingwood MCG
Rd 14 Gold Coast
Rd 16 Hawks Docklands
Rd 18 StK Docklands
Rd 20 GWS Canberra
Rd 23 Bulldogs Docklands

Should win the first 4. Bulldogs Rd 23 at Docklands will tell us a lot more than West Coast and Brisbane away games did re our chances this year.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We probably have 1 more on the road game against a top 8 side - the Bulldogs in Rd 23 at Docklands where they are flying in 2021.

We will get / learn more out of that Bulldogs away game on the eve of the finals than away games against WCE in Rd 3, after playing the crows twice in 2 sort trials then 2 soft games against North and Essendon and WCE played so well we just couldn't stop them, and the Brisbane game where we played dumb footy all night.

Guess we will get a guide what to do in Rd 23 on Saturday night.