Opinion Only three teams can win the flag

Captain chaos

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Jul 13, 2016
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Willing to be wrong because there's no way I would've picked the Eagles or especially the Tigers but...

Gold Coast - no.
Adelaide - would be an all time rebuild job to lose so much in one season, no.
Melb, Carl, Syd, St Kilda, Freo, North - no. Could any of these sides make the 8 - yes. But they each have big deficiencies that leave them incredibly unlikely to win 3 or even 4 finals in September.


Port - come on....no. They have a lot of talent but why would it be the year that it suddenly clicks to such a degree that they go from mid ladder to flag?
Essendon - see above with Port, plus add in a coach change and injury riddled summer


Which leaves us back to the top 7 and Hawthorn.

Hawthorn - would be a shock. But they can produce a nasty backline with a Mitchell, O'Meara, Worpel, Wingard midfield and maybe Clarko finally renovates the forward line this year. Possible.
Geelong - can't have them higher than 7th best given they are ageing and lost Kelly.
Coll - a chance, but their midfield class is 32 year old Pendles and Sidebottom who's not old but has had a couple of excellent but unusual seasons.
West Coast, Bris, GWS- contenders.
Richmond - faves.

But hey, if you took Richmond out of the equation last year I think Brisbane could've won the flag they year after finishing with 5 wins. The Lions beat Geelong late in the season and were a bit of luck away from beating the Giants. 2nd-6th was very even last year and if the Tigers fall back to that group like they were for a large part of the year before hitting top gear then it could be very open. The Dogs well and truly deserved 2016 but a reason a result like that happens is because they other top sides aren't standouts.
So where does that leave the bulldogs?
 

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Back One Out

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Gee you are kind to kelly there.
Just stating the facts.

Josh Kelly missed 8 games and wasn't at his best at the business end of the season.
He got injured in Round 16 v Brisbane and missed the next 5 matches.

In the 6 matches before he got injured he averaged:

33.2 disp (10 cont, 23 uncont) 532 metres, 9.2 score inv, 6 tackles and 126 Champion Data points

In the 6 matches after he got injured he averaged:

23.7 disp (11 cont, 13 uncont) 346 metres, 5.8 score inv, 4 tackles and 101 Champion Data points


That's fine if you don't think he is one of best midfielders in the comp. It's just opinions. But he has missed 16 matches over the past 2 seasons. Big chunks of footy. Prior to that, he was All Australian, best and fairest, 5th in the Brownlow and being offered $9 million to sign with North. So I'll stick with my opinion that he's a gun.

Green missing six games an issue? They win tge prelim without him.
Of course it was an issue. He is one of the best players in the comp.

Anyway, you're missing the point. I was talking about them collectively. The Giants' 5 best midfielders all missing a stack of games and the resultant lack of continuity. (Cogs and Ward both gone for the season.)

Imagine how Geelong would've fared last year if Dangerfield, Kelly, Selwood, Duncan and Ablett had missed a combined total of 58 games instead of missing just 6. You would've probably finished 12th or 13th.

Point being, most sides would've been screwed, but the Giants still managed to eke their way into a Grand Final. I'm saying it was a better effort than people are giving them credit for. IMO they only need to have a clear run with injury and they will dominate the comp.

Richmond had a lot of players miss a lot mire games who could have been underdone , as did collibgwood.
No, they didn't. (Giants had more injuries than those I listed.)

It's irrelevant anyway. I'm talking about the likely improvement of GWS from 2019 to 2020 based on them having a clean bill of health.
It's not some pissing contest about which finalist had more injuries in 2019. :drunk:

FWIW, the Tigers did well to weather their early injuries, but they're better equipped to do so than most sides because they're so even across the board. They were less reliant on their stars than other teams and have had the best system. They're well coached and that will keep them in the mix for 2020.

As for Collingwood, yes I agree. Like GWS, you could also mount a convincing argument that injuries might've cost them the chance of winning a flag as well. They shared flag favouritism after a 10-3 start to the season, but their W/L record over the last 11 games was 6-5. They were missing De Goey, Stephenson, Adams, Beams, Cox, Moore, Langdon, Reid and Scharenberg and it eventually proved too much.

If the Pies best players are fit and firing in 2020 then they'll also be hard to stop.

i also mentioned coaching as a factor...which you didnt.
It's a hard thing to gauge. How do you quantify it as an outsider when you aren't privy to anything that goes on with each team's planning and preparation? Easy for people to be critical of Leon Cameron and say he's been given the keys to the Ferrari but that he can't drive it. It wasn't long ago that most Richmond fans were saying Hardwick couldn't coach and that he should be sacked. Now they're saying he's the best coach in the AFL.

The fact is Leon Cameron has coached a young team to 2 Prelims and a GF despite him losing a heap of star players to injury every year.

telsor suggested it may be a problem with their medical team. I'm not sure how their medical team would prevent knee injuries occurring to Ward, Coniglio and Patton. Or prevent any injuries, for that matter. Sometimes you've just got to acknowledge that a team has had shit luck. It's got me stumped why muppets on Big Footy find it so difficult to concede that about rival clubs. Surely we can all agree that GWS have had shit luck in recent years. It doesn't take the gloss off Richmond's flag.
 
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Aussie in exile

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GWS are definite flag contenders. People are overlooking them because they got pumped in last year's GF. Foolish. Richmond would've flogged everyone that day and nothing went right for GWS. They're not as bad as what they looked. Just one of those days and best forgotten. It was a gutsy effort by them just to get into the GF despite not playing their best footy throughout 2019.

Remember, they finished runners-up despite having a shocking run of injuries to many of their gun players
  • Lachie Whitfield - missed 7 games and was carrying an injury/underdone on GF day
  • Steven Coniglio - missed the last 11 matches with a knee injury
  • Callan Ward - missed the entire season with a knee injury
  • Toby Greene - missed 6 games due to injury and missed the Prelim Final due to suspension.
  • Josh Kelly - missed 8 games due to soft tissue injuries and wasn't himself over the closing month and a half
Look at those names. (Add Taranto, Williams and Hopper and it's undoubtedly the deepest midfield in the comp). Greene and Kelly are Top 10 calibre players. Both of them are jets who had a chequered run in 2019 and weren't able to play their best footy for more than 2-3 games. You watch them light it up in 2020.

To further add to their midfield injury woes in 2019, Matt de Boer missed 7 games late in the season with a shoulder injury. Not a big name, but he was very effective in a tagging role. Brett Deledio may have also been handy, but he couldn't take a trick and limped through his final season.

Their skipper & best defender, Phil Davis was injured early on Prelim Final day and was ineffective in the GF. Young gun defender Sam Taylor was also hurt. Then factor in their ruck issues with big Mummy clearly labouring with his lack of fitness. At times, he was a liability. Jacobs is a big upgrade.

---------------------------------------------------------------

People are always too harsh on beaten Grand Finalists and think they're just gonna fall away. More often than not, teams use the disappointment as a spur to have another decent crack at the flag. Sometimes they go one better. The Giants are clearly no flash-in-the-pan pretenders. They've been thereabouts for the past 4 seasons and endured rotten luck with injuries in that time. With better luck, they could've won a couple of flags by now.

They clearly have the best depth of A-grade talent in the comp (with a big gap to whoever is second.) Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves. When they put it together for a quarter or for a half, their best footy is unbelievable. They just haven't had the mental toughness and steely resolve to maintain it. They can play like millionaires and get a bit ahead of themselves. That's just a maturity issue, I think. Really, it's only a matter of when, not "if".

The Giants would be stung by their pitiful performance v Richmond. They don't strike me as a flaky pissweak team who was lucky to get there. Nor did they have a dream season with nearly everything going their way like it did for the Crows in 2017. I think GWS will use their GF humiliation to go one better, or at the very least, give it another decent shake.

They still have plenty of upside and a plenty of improving young A-grade talent: Taranto, Hopper and Himmelberg have only played 60 games. Finlayson and Taylor have only played 30 games. Bobby Hill is another exciting talent with x-factor.

Brent Daniels (pick 27 in 2017, 25 games in 2019)
Sam Taylor (pick 28 in 2017, 22 games in 2019)
Jye Caldwell (pick 11 in 2018)
Jack Hateley (pick 14 in 2018)
Bobby Hill (pick 24 in 2018, 7 games in 2019)
Lachlan Ash (pick 4 in 2019)
Tom Green (pick 10 in 2019)
In my opinion it will be a sorry day for the game if GWS win the flag with their poor crowds and the amount of leg up ups they have had.
 

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Tiger2709

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I count FIVE:

Richmond
West Coast
GWS
Bulldogs
Collingwood
You would have to include the Cats, stars are getting a little old but havent slipped right off the pace yet and they have a reasonable mix of youth.
They need to replace Kelly but were top last year after H&A and will likely be thereabouts again come finals.

They were not far off making the Grand Final and possibly could have rolled the Giants on the big day.

Too early to write them off yet, imo.
 

Captain chaos

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Just stating the facts.

Josh Kelly missed 8 games and wasn't at his best at the business end of the season.
He got injured in Round 16 v Brisbane and missed the next 5 matches.

In the 6 matches before he got injured he averaged:

33.2 disp (10 cont, 23 uncont) 532 metres, 9.2 score inv, 6 tackles and 126 Champion Data points

In the 6 matches after he got injured he averaged:

23.7 disp (11 cont, 13 uncont) 346 metres, 5.8 score inv, 4 tackles and 101 Champion Data points


That's fine if you don't think he is one of best midfielders in the comp. It's just opinions. But he has missed 16 matches over the past 2 seasons. Big chunks of footy. Prior to that, he was All Australian, best and fairest, 5th in the Brownlow and being offered $9 million to sign with North. So I'll stick with my opinion that he's a gun.

Of course it was an issue. He is one of the best players in the comp.

Anyway, you're missing the point. I was talking about them collectively. The Giants' 5 best midfielders all missing a stack of games and the resultant lack of continuity. (Cogs and Ward both gone for the season.)

Imagine how Geelong would've fared last year if Dangerfield, Kelly, Selwood, Duncan and Ablett had missed a combined total of 58 games instead of missing just 6. You would've probably finished 12th or 13th.

Point being, most sides would've been screwed, but the Giants still managed to eke their way into a Grand Final. I'm saying it was a better effort than people are giving them credit for. IMO they only need to have a clear run with injury and they will dominate the comp.

No, they didn't. (Giants had more injuries than those I listed.)

It's irrelevant anyway. I'm talking about the likely improvement of GWS from 2019 to 2020 based on them having a clean bill of health.
It's not some pissing contest about which finalist had more injuries in 2019. :drunk:

FWIW, the Tigers did well to weather their early injuries, but they're better equipped to do so than most sides because they're so even across the board. They were less reliant on their stars than other teams and have had the best system. They're well coached and that will keep them in the mix for 2020.

As for Collingwood, yes I agree. Like GWS, you could also mount a convincing argument that injuries might've cost them the chance of winning a flag as well. They shared flag favouritism after a 10-3 start to the season, but their W/L record over the last 11 games was 6-5. They were missing De Goey, Stephenson, Adams, Beams, Cox, Moore, Langdon, Reid and Scharenberg and it eventually proved too much.

If the Pies best players are fit and firing in 2020 then they'll also be hard to stop.

It's a hard thing to gauge. How do you quantify it as an outsider when you aren't privy to anything that goes on with each team's planning and preparation? Easy for people to be critical of Leon Cameron and say he's been given the keys to the Ferrari but that he can't drive it. It wasn't long ago that most Richmond fans were saying Hardwick couldn't coach and that he should be sacked. Now they're saying he's the best coach in the AFL.

The fact is Leon Cameron has coached a young team to 2 Prelims and a GF despite him losing a heap of star players to injury every year.

telsor suggested it may be a problem with their medical team. I'm not sure how their medical team would prevent knee injuries occurring to Ward, Coniglio and Patton. Or prevent any injuries, for that matter. Sometimes you've just got to acknowledge that a team has had shit luck. It's got me stumped why muppets on Big Footy find it so difficult to concede that about rival clubs. Surely we can all agree that GWS have had shit luck in recent years. It doesn't take the gloss off Richmond's flag.

Sorry .. if u are going to claim green missing 6 games impacted and kelly “ wasnt right” after time off.. then consider this

cotchin missef 12 games

rance missed the whole season ( aa captaon)
Rewoldt missed 11 games ... triple coleman medalists

short missed 10 games

namkervid mossed 14....

seriuosly... u r trying to say gws had it worse?

add in first choice stack and graham missing the gf

richmond had it worse than them
 

Back One Out

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Sorry .. if u are going to claim green missing 6 games impacted and kelly “ wasnt right” after time off.. then consider this

cotchin missef 12 games

rance missed the whole season ( aa captaon)
Rewoldt missed 11 games ... triple coleman medalists

short missed 10 games

namkervid mossed 14....

seriuosly... u r trying to say gws had it worse?

add in first choice stack and graham missing the gf

richmond had it worse than them
No, I'm not saying GWS "had it worse" than team A, B or C. That topic doesn't interest me

The thread is about 2020 premiership contenders.

I'm saying GWS will be a better team this year with full uninterrupted seasons from Greene, Kelly, Whitfield, Coniglio and Ward
16 wins and runners up wasn't such a bad result for a talented young team who never really got going and just spluttered their way through 2019.
They were never settled. They had no continuity and were never in form.

Greene, Kelly, Whitfield, Coniglio, Ward, Taranto, Williams, Hopper, Hill and De Boer is a ridiculously deep midfield group.
If they stay fit, they will have the AFL's best midfield in 2020 (supplying the likes of Cameron, Himmelberg and Finlayson)
Combined with Jacobs and a fitter Mumford in the ruck, plus Davis, Haynes and Taylor in defence, it will make them very hard to beat.



Richmond took a while to mature into a premiership contender.

2013... 15-7..... 5th... lost EF
2014... 12-10... 8th... lost EF
2015... 15-7..... 5th... lost EF
2016.... 8-14... 13th
2017... 15-7..... 3rd... won QF......... won PF.. won GF

Cotchin, Martin, Rance, Riewoldt, Edwards, Lambert, Grigg, Houli, Ellis, Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury and Damien Hardwick had their share of doubters and knockers along the way. People laughed at Richmond when they suffered horrible losses in week 1 of the finals in 3 successive years (to Carlton, Port and North). Nobody is laughing at them anymore.


The talented Giants seem to be following a similar path of serving a finals apprenticeship.

2016... 16-6...... 4th... won QF.............. lost PF
2017... 14-6-2... 4th... lost QF.. won SF.. lost PF
2018... 13-8-1... 7th... won EF.. lost SF
2019... 13-9...... 6th... won EF.. won SF.. won PF... lost GF
2020... ????

The Giants were always going shit the bed in their first Grand Final. (They remind me of the Eagles back in their early days)

Most of the Giants stars have always given the impression they're on pretty good terms with themselves. They haven't taken the defeats very badly. Probably had the attitude that "we're so talented that a premiership is inevitable." I reckon the Grand Final humiliation may have been the kick in the guts they needed. I reckon we'll see a hungrier, more desperate, more committed and more seasoned, mature GWS team in 2020.

I'm tipping 16/17 wins during the H&A season and 1st or 2nd on the ladder.
2 home finals victories over WCE and Collingwood and then a GF rematch with Richmond (which they'll be far better prepared for)
 
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Aramis

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Pretty moronic to write off the giants and pies before a ball has even been bounced, both teams could easily make top 4.
Add a Brownlow medallist back to the strong finishing Hawthorn that crippled West Coast in Perth and destroyed their morale heading into finals. Silly to write us off as well.
 

Captain chaos

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No, I'm not saying GWS "had it worse" than team A, B or C. That topic doesn't interest me

The thread is about 2020 premiership contenders.

I'm saying GWS will be a better team this year with full uninterrupted seasons from Greene, Kelly, Whitfield, Coniglio and Ward
16 wins and runners up wasn't such a bad result for a talented young team who never really got going and just spluttered their way through 2019.
They were never settled. They had no continuity and were never in form.

Greene, Kelly, Whitfield, Coniglio, Ward, Taranto, Williams, Hopper, Hill and De Boer is a ridiculously deep midfield group.
If they stay fit, they will have the AFL's best midfield in 2020 (supplying the likes of Cameron, Himmelberg and Finlayson)
Combined with Jacobs and a fitter Mumford in the ruck, plus Davis, Haynes and Taylor in defence, it will make them very hard to beat.



Richmond took a while to mature into a premiership contender.

2013... 15-7..... 5th... lost EF
2014... 12-10... 8th... lost EF
2015... 15-7..... 5th... lost EF
2016.... 8-14... 13th
2017... 15-7..... 3rd... won QF......... won PF.. won GF

Cotchin, Martin, Rance, Riewoldt, Edwards, Lambert, Grigg, Houli, Ellis, Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury and Damien Hardwick had their share of doubters and knockers along the way. People laughed at Richmond when they suffered horrible losses in week 1 of the finals in 3 successive years (to Carlton, Port and North). Nobody is laughing at them anymore.


The talented Giants seem to be following a similar path of serving a finals apprenticeship.

2016... 16-6...... 4th... won QF.............. lost PF
2017... 14-6-2... 4th... lost QF.. won SF.. lost PF
2018... 13-8-1... 7th... won EF.. lost SF
2019... 13-9...... 6th... won EF.. won SF.. won PF... lost GF
2020... ????

The Giants were always going shit the bed in their first Grand Final. (They remind me of the Eagles back in their early days)

Most of the Giants stars have always given the impression they're on pretty good terms with themselves. They haven't taken the defeats very badly. Probably had the attitude that "we're so talented that a premiership is inevitable." I reckon the Grand Final humiliation may have been the kick in the guts they needed. I reckon we'll see a hungrier, more desperate, more committed and more seasoned, mature GWS team in 2020.

I'm tipping 16/17 wins during the H&A season and 1st or 2nd on the ladder.
2 home finals victories over WCE and Collingwood and then a GF rematch with Richmond (which they'll be far better prepared for)
No clubs improvement is linear as you are pinning your hopes on for gws.

tigers had a disasterous 16, melb 18 and the cats 06... but by your theory , gws are morals....please stop ignoring the coach... he was a trainwreck GF day.

they wont make a ptelim. It isnt a maths equation.
 
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Captain chaos

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Add a Brownlow medallist back to the strong finishing Hawthorn that crippled West Coast in Perth and destroyed their morale heading into finals. Silly to write us off as well.
junktime win with nothing riding on it for hawks... relying on a crippled midfield to get the job done.. lol!
 

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