Oppo Camp Opposition Watch

[SandyToes]

The Eagles gave up their 2018 first-round draft pick and this year’s third-round pick (50) in return for picks 21, 26 and 37 this year, as well as Gold Coast’s 2018 second-round selection.

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl-tr...-to-clear-way-for-lachie-weller-ng-b88633595z

Read the article, stay for Lachie Weller's trade radio interview extract that destroyed our negotiating position

Based on my calculations per AFL draft index points those picks are equal to between picks 1-2 in the draft

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is what the gold coast suns thinks of the deal now:

http://www.goldcoastfc.com.au/news/2017-10-19/trade-pick-swap-with-eagles.mobileapp

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The fact Scott Clayton now works for the Eagles is as sus as all **** and the media should be on to this to ask what was the basis for this deal and how Evans let this happen under his watch (plus the Lachie Weller trade shambles) - WTF happened and whose head needs to be put on a spike out front of Metricon?

Yuk

 

[17er]

I’ll eat my words. Eagles are good and that trade is quickly becoming a disaster

I can still see the Eagles sliding somewhat to a 13 and 9 finish given their lack of depth if they have an injury crisis. They've played 6 out of 9 matches at Optus Stadium and weak away opponents. 7 of their final 13 games are against top 8 sides, most of which are away, as well as another Derby. Pick #12 wouldn't be awful.

All that considered, I'm actually more in favour of targeting players in the first round who really want to become Suns. It has worked with Wil Powell and much was made of the 3 Victorian Top 10 picks in 2016 being mates and all of the Draftees from that year signing 4 year contracts. But it seems like we are getting better value out of our academy guys, so in the end whatever the 2 first round picks are we should be using the rest of our picks on our own players.

 

[OB11]

I can still see the Eagles sliding somewhat to a 13 and 9 finish given their lack of depth if they have an injury crisis. They've played 6 out of 9 matches at Optus Stadium and weak away opponents. 7 of their final 13 games are against top 8 sides, most of which are away, as well as another Derby. Pick #12 wouldn't be awful.

All that considered, I'm actually more in favour of targeting players in the first round who really want to become Suns. It has worked with Wil Powell and much was made of the 3 Victorian Top 10 picks in 2016 being mates and all of the Draftees from that year signing 4 year contracts. But it seems like we are getting better value out of our academy guys, so in the end whatever the 2 first round picks are we should be using the rest of our picks on our own players.

3 picks when you include the Lynch FA compo pick

 

[Peel67skin]

I can still see the Eagles sliding somewhat to a 13 and 9 finish given their lack of depth if they have an injury crisis. They've played 6 out of 9 matches at Optus Stadium and weak away opponents. 7 of their final 13 games are against top 8 sides, most of which are away, as well as another Derby. Pick #12 wouldn't be awful.

All that considered, I'm actually more in favour of targeting players in the first round who really want to become Suns. It has worked with Wil Powell and much was made of the 3 Victorian Top 10 picks in 2016 being mates and all of the Draftees from that year signing 4 year contracts. But it seems like we are getting better value out of our academy guys, so in the end whatever the 2 first round picks are we should be using the rest of our picks on our own players.

That is pretty weak strategy , if second Rd and third Rd got better talent I pick them first ,let other team pick gc academy If they are good enough and use the 20% discount. There will be left over point for later pick too .

 

[TheSunGod]

The Eagles gave up their 2018 first-round draft pick and this year’s third-round pick (50) in return for picks 21, 26 and 37 this year, as well as Gold Coast’s 2018 second-round selection.

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl-tr...-to-clear-way-for-lachie-weller-ng-b88633595z

Read the article, stay for Lachie Weller's trade radio interview extract that destroyed our negotiating position

Based on my calculations per AFL draft index points those picks are equal to between picks 1-2 in the draft

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is what the gold coast suns thinks of the deal now:

http://www.goldcoastfc.com.au/news/2017-10-19/trade-pick-swap-with-eagles.mobileapp

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The fact Scott Clayton now works for the Eagles is as sus as all **** and the media should be on to this to ask what was the basis for this deal and how Evans let this happen under his watch (plus the Lachie Weller trade shambles) - WTF happened and whose head needs to be put on a spike out front of Metricon?

Yuk

uggh

Makes the Weller trade look good...almost

 

[Happy Idiot]

This Eagles team has come out of nowhere.

Exactly. I think preseason most media-types had them 11-15 on the ladder. Anyone that had them top eight is either a revisionist, or pulled them blind out of a hat for their office sweep.

At the time the trade looked entirely reasonable,

Sent from my VTR-L09 using Tapatalk

 

[GCStormie]

Exactly. I think preseason most media-types had them 11-15 on the ladder. Anyone that had them top eight is either a revisionist, or pulled them blind out of a hat for their office sweep.

At the time the trade looked entirely reasonable,

Sent from my VTR-L09 using Tapatalk

Posted 20/2/2018 just saying

After losing so many great players?
Priddis and?
Butler?
Josh Hill?
Jonathan Giles?

Petrie and Mitchell only on the list for 12 months so its not like you can say the eagles success over the last few years is on the back of their efforts. Honestly I think West coast should never have offered Mitchell a playing contract. rate him as a coach? give him a coaching contract. they already had a Mitchell in the team (Priddis) and playing two of them left them far too slow and far too one dimensional (thus why Priddis played a lot at HFF - unsuccessfully and Mitchell played a lot on a HBF - performing about as well as any of their second year draftees would have - rare at WCE for draftees to play in their first season historically)

Last year WCE had no rucks, Nic Nat AND Lycett coming in more than offsets the loss of Priddis and Mitchell

I'm expecting WCE to be more competitive as a football team this year, cant see them missing the 8

​

 

[17er]

The Eagles gave up their 2018 first-round draft pick and this year’s third-round pick (50) in return for picks 21, 26 and 37 this year, as well as Gold Coast’s 2018 second-round selection.

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl-tr...-to-clear-way-for-lachie-weller-ng-b88633595z

Read the article, stay for Lachie Weller's trade radio interview extract that destroyed our negotiating position

Based on my calculations per AFL draft index points those picks are equal to between picks 1-2 in the draft

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is what the gold coast suns thinks of the deal now:

http://www.goldcoastfc.com.au/news/2017-10-19/trade-pick-swap-with-eagles.mobileapp

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The fact Scott Clayton now works for the Eagles is as sus as all **** and the media should be on to this to ask what was the basis for this deal and how Evans let this happen under his watch (plus the Lachie Weller trade shambles) - WTF happened and whose head needs to be put on a spike out front of Metricon?

Going by the AFL Draft Value Index, the combined points for the three 2nd round picks less the value of the 3rd rounder they gave us (aka "the Goober pick") the number is 2037 points, which is the equivalent of a pick #4. Obviously, the Suns aren't going to get that kind of value, but that was part of the calculated risk.
If the Eagles finish out of the top 8, unlikely, then the Suns still get a top 10 pick.
If the Eagles come 5th-8th and are eliminated early in the Finals, the Suns have burnt a mid 2nd round pick.
If the Eagles finish in the Preliminaries, the Suns have burnt their high 2nd Round pick.

None of these scenarios were ever going to be a massive win or huge loss. A wooden Spoon or a premiership were the reward/risk parameters and either extreme meant the difference was the Suns gaining a 1st round pick somewhere from pick #1 to #18 with attached points discrepancies of give or take a 2nd rounder's points value. In other words, the worst case scenario was losing that value of a draft pick we didn't need in the first place.

The Suns went into the 2017 Draft with #2 and #19 (thank you AFL for vastly over valuing Motlop so that Geelong could afford to give us fair compo for Ablett) and turned it into Weller, Powell and Ballard. They made the pick trade above and added Crossley and an an extra first rounder for this year. There was no need to use those 2nd rounders because the plan was always to draft Academy Players and find some roughies in the Rookie Draft. Nutting, Jaska, Holman, Dawson and Heron rounded out a very good Draft, along with the cheap trade additions of Young and Wigg.

The other thing to remember is that this year's Draft is now stacked with picks = 2 x 1sts, 2 x 2nds, 2 X 3rds and a 4th. The necessary trades of Ablett, Saad, and Matera secured these extra picks, while the mature bodies traded away were replaced by 3 experienced AFL players in Weller, Young and Holman (Wigg also mature, but yet to be blooded).

There is always the argument to fall back on that it doesn't matter which players ended up being drafted because the value and potential of the pick is what matters most. But this argument is self-defeating because in the end it is always about the players you drafted and nothing else. Trading pick #2 for Weller and pick #41 has ended up contributing 12 games towards our season so far through Ballard and Weller's play.

There is also a way of looking at Saad being traded for the Bombers' 2nd Rounder, looking likely to be early 20s, which is even better value considering he cost nothing at the Rookie Draft and will end up recouping the perceived lost 2nd round pick.

 

[17er]

That is pretty weak strategy , if second Rd and third Rd got better talent I pick them first ,let other team pick gc academy If they are good enough and use the 20% discount. There will be left over point for later pick too .

We didn't need that many picks last year. What do you do with excess picks you don't need? Trade them, pay it forward. It was incredibly smart planning to bring in older recruits (Young, Weller, Wigg, Holman, Jaska) to temper the number of 18yos (Powell, Crossley, Nutting, Ballard, Dawson, Heron), while the previous crop of 19yos (Bowes, Ainsworth, Scrimshaw, Brodie, Scheer) and 20yos (Spencer, Joyce, Fiorini, Schoenfeld, Ah Chee, Macpherson) could continue to develop in the system without necessarily being needed to play Seniors.

 

[17er]

3 picks when you include the Lynch FA compo pick

If Tom Lynch leaves, we will need to shift our strategy enormously. His loss leaves us with Wright and Day at KPP in the forward line and a couple of possible rookies who could be developed in Crossley and Ballard, so we'd be gunning for a replacement at the top of the draft. Waiting for 2MP to come into his full potential and hoping Sam Day can do the same will likely mean that 2019 is another lost year, so going hard in this year's Draft means we'll have some 20yos for the 2020 campaign. Other than Tom's decision, the other great unknown is whether the club could pull off a trade coup of their own, like landing Demon Tom McDonald or Gaff from the Eagles.

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

Posted 20/2/2018 just saying

​

It's not hard to get it right when you edit your post 3 months later!
Your original post had you saying that you thought the Eagles win/loss would go backwards and it's been edited this evening to "can't see them missing the 8"....

 

[GCStormie]

It's not hard to get it right when you edit your post 3 months later!
Your original post had you saying that you thought the Eagles win/loss would go backwards and it's been edited this evening to "can't see them missing the 8"....

Them being a more competitive side, but losing mre games due to lost home ground advantage. pretty much said that they would be more competitive. they Have. and we didn't lose the home ground advantage like I thought we might. the points the same. Eagles were always goiong to improve with Ruckman available and old slowpokes out of the side.

 

[Stroppy]

I was OK with the pick trade at the time.

They obviously wanted to draft Goober and Nutting late, had already traded for Wigg, and so did not have the list spots to use all our 2nd rounders. Freo kept saying no to our 2nd rounders for Weller, so went with option B and the Weagles trade.

Suspect they knew the Weagles would be OK this year, but no one expected a top 2 finish and home finals.

Atm, it is a 4 pick upgrade (from #22 to #18) that cost us 2 picks in the early 20's.

Ouch.

So we need the Weagles to go backwards, the Suns to go forwards, and for a crap-ton of OK free agents to change teams.

Last year, both Rockliff and Motlop had free agency compo of end of 1st round picks. A bunch of those this year will widen the gap between the Weagles 1st and our 2nd.

 

[Happy Idiot]

It's not hard to get it right when you edit your post 3 months later!
Your original post had you saying that you thought the Eagles win/loss would go backwards and it's been edited this evening to "can't see them missing the 8"....

Ouch. Just give me a second to tweak a few things and I'll find that post of mine from January where I had the current top 8 at West Coast, Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney, Port, North and Geelong. Of course, I knew that GWS would be injury-ravaged, sitting just outside at 11th place.

 

[Sunraysia]

Exactly. I think preseason most media-types had them 11-15 on the ladder. Anyone that had them top eight is either a revisionist, or pulled them blind out of a hat for their office sweep.

At the time the trade looked entirely reasonable,

Sent from my VTR-L09 using Tapatalk

Or didn't come from WA.....and listened to that notorious Eastern States media..

 

[kreglze]

What has happened to GWS?

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

What has happened to GWS?

When Dylan Buckley is even on your list, let alone your leading goal scorer on the night then you've got problems.

 

[Sunraysia]

What has happened to GWS?

Maybe a Suns win on the road in couple of weeks …?

 

[SandyToes]

What has happened to GWS?

Apparently it's "all" their injuries
Truth is they've been talent drained much much worse than us but you never here about moving them to Tassie
They've been able to cover their losses by draft recruiting because they had so many picks to start with and keep getting more every time a player leaves but as we know- these days top picks can be Fools Gold

 

[SandyToes]

Maybe a Suns win on the road in couple of weeks …?

Spotless is NOT a fortress
And we have a bit of experience on the road

 

[gcsunsfc]

GWS best 22 is a fair bit better than what they ran out last night

Shaw Davis Haynes
Williams Tomlinson Whitfield
Scully Ward Shiel
Taranto Cameron Deledio
Greene Patton De Boer

Lobb Kelly Coniglio

Hopper Griffen Corr Buntine?




Kelly - their best player has missed half the year and been underdone
Scully gone the whole year - their spread was their strength
Davis missed games
Lobb missed games
Greene missed games (All Australian)
Williams gone the whole year


No doubt their results have been not up to the talent that have taken the field each week but I would switch our lists in a heart beat!

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

They’re getting smashed in the ruck just like Geelong are. Mummy retiring has left a massive hole.

 

[SandyToes]

GWS best 22 is a fair bit better than what they ran out last night

Shaw Davis Haynes
Williams Tomlinson Whitfield
Scully Ward Shiel
Taranto Cameron Deledio
Greene Patton De Boer

Lobb Kelly Coniglio

Hopper Griffen Corr Buntine?




Kelly - their best player has missed half the year and been underdone
Scully gone the whole year - their spread was their strength
Davis missed games
Lobb missed games
Greene missed games (All Australian)
Williams gone the whole year


No doubt their results have been not up to the talent that have taken the field each week but I would switch our lists in a heart beat!

Well I'd switch fit midfields

 

[gcsunsfc]

Well I'd switch fit midfields

Lynch, 2MP, Nick Holman, Martin, Young, Sexton, Sam Day

over

Cameron, Patton, Greene, Griffen, Himmelburg, ZGL


yeah.. pretty close

 

[SunsBhoy]

Lynch, 2MP, Nick Holman, Martin, Young, Sexton, Sam Day

over

Cameron, Patton, Greene, Griffen, Himmelburg, ZGL


yeah.. pretty close

When you do comparisons like that , it just shows we need to either find or recruit some classy mids and I think we are in contention , Ainsworth becoming a mid is going to help this , we just need one to come from the pack , who is going to be??


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