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#1
Probably my favourite race of this time of the year, all the good horses seem to come back for this, and my fave horses always seem to win it.
R1 - Interesting and even race to start with. Don't mind 7 Carbon Trader. 2 starts back over a mile he ran home well down the outside to be beaten 1.3L by Bangerang Quickpic (a nice little horse), then over the same distance last start Nolen had him stuck on the rail where it didn't appear that he wanted to let go and he finished a meddling although not disgraceful 2.9L 9th. Williams is back in the saddle, so if there is not too much of a leader bias watch for him to swoop home hard on the outside of the field.
R2 - Very tough race to pick, the outsider of the field at 16-1 has won 3 of 7 starts! Another outsider 8 Floren beat a bunch of muppets by 8 lengths on debut untouched, and Suttons horses are generally over the odds. Might be worth a peak at $12? I could make a case for everything just about here so I won't bother.
R3 - 1 Denman did something special first up last week which reminded me a little of an old horse I saw once.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0BOSKhRVbE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R29NWNHXXS4
I've gone a little over the top there, but the way he eased off heels knuckled down then went into warp drive in the final 200 was beautiful to watch. He has generally hit the lead early and held his margin in a lot of races, but nothing beats class prevailing like that. I'm on board.
My bet for the race however is 2 Carrara at $1.92 fixed to run a place 1st/2nd (No Third Divi). Home track, placed 10/11, his ideal distance, not a difficult race.
R4 - I have gone for the Vasil first starter 8 Psychologist here purely on gut feel, she is $7 into $5 today (I got on at $5.50). These races are guessing games, the Choisir filly will do me. I will only think of getting confident if there is an Aquanita plunge like Lucky Secret a few years ago.
R5 - 5 Beneteau is the early buzz horse after his impressive win up in Sydney. Interesting sign is theyve kept the apprentice on for the ride down here - sign of confidence? He ran comparable time on dead going to the Melbourne horses on good going - and Im not sure he was fully extended either. I'm following 2 Innocent Gamble but an even run here couldn't hurt before the Diamond. 3 Secession did it easy on debut, unsure he beat much but will run well. 6 Pellizotti has been putting in eye catchers and the extra trip will suit. All in all an interesting race, I won't be going hard except a small wager on 5, place the 2.
R6 - The biggest factor in this race is the barriers, with my fancies drawing the outside, 1 Lucky Secret (10) and 9 Irish Lights (11). As such both are at very backable odds, but LS will need all his usual gatespeed to get the front running position while IL will probably save herself for one big burst. Despite this I think they will knock off Avenue (1), I'm just debating whether Irish Lights will be able to chase down Lucky Secret in the final 100. To be safe stick with the Secret.
R7 - Queen of the Turf, 10 Typhoon Tracy wins, next.
I have a hunch one of the top weight stayers will lead the charge some lengths away, possibly Zipping with a gun ride from Hall, with Heart of Dreams thereabouts.
R8 - Looks like the race is there for 5 Velocitea, good first up performer proven over this course/distance in slightly harder races. Trialled well with a win over Snipers Bullet & Gran Sasso. Don't think we've seen the best of her and Price is the man to bring it out. Big watch on 7 Flying Tessie watch betting she is classy but might not be cooked yet.
R9 - Well I hope its a good day for favourites, as 1 Miss Maren is my top pick purely on class, good first up performer and distance is just long enough for her to show up. Heres hoping 2 Moatize puts in a good return showing too after his inury layoff as he is a Cups horse.
Good luck.
R1 - Interesting and even race to start with. Don't mind 7 Carbon Trader. 2 starts back over a mile he ran home well down the outside to be beaten 1.3L by Bangerang Quickpic (a nice little horse), then over the same distance last start Nolen had him stuck on the rail where it didn't appear that he wanted to let go and he finished a meddling although not disgraceful 2.9L 9th. Williams is back in the saddle, so if there is not too much of a leader bias watch for him to swoop home hard on the outside of the field.
R2 - Very tough race to pick, the outsider of the field at 16-1 has won 3 of 7 starts! Another outsider 8 Floren beat a bunch of muppets by 8 lengths on debut untouched, and Suttons horses are generally over the odds. Might be worth a peak at $12? I could make a case for everything just about here so I won't bother.
R3 - 1 Denman did something special first up last week which reminded me a little of an old horse I saw once.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0BOSKhRVbE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R29NWNHXXS4
I've gone a little over the top there, but the way he eased off heels knuckled down then went into warp drive in the final 200 was beautiful to watch. He has generally hit the lead early and held his margin in a lot of races, but nothing beats class prevailing like that. I'm on board.
My bet for the race however is 2 Carrara at $1.92 fixed to run a place 1st/2nd (No Third Divi). Home track, placed 10/11, his ideal distance, not a difficult race.
R4 - I have gone for the Vasil first starter 8 Psychologist here purely on gut feel, she is $7 into $5 today (I got on at $5.50). These races are guessing games, the Choisir filly will do me. I will only think of getting confident if there is an Aquanita plunge like Lucky Secret a few years ago.
R5 - 5 Beneteau is the early buzz horse after his impressive win up in Sydney. Interesting sign is theyve kept the apprentice on for the ride down here - sign of confidence? He ran comparable time on dead going to the Melbourne horses on good going - and Im not sure he was fully extended either. I'm following 2 Innocent Gamble but an even run here couldn't hurt before the Diamond. 3 Secession did it easy on debut, unsure he beat much but will run well. 6 Pellizotti has been putting in eye catchers and the extra trip will suit. All in all an interesting race, I won't be going hard except a small wager on 5, place the 2.
R6 - The biggest factor in this race is the barriers, with my fancies drawing the outside, 1 Lucky Secret (10) and 9 Irish Lights (11). As such both are at very backable odds, but LS will need all his usual gatespeed to get the front running position while IL will probably save herself for one big burst. Despite this I think they will knock off Avenue (1), I'm just debating whether Irish Lights will be able to chase down Lucky Secret in the final 100. To be safe stick with the Secret.
R7 - Queen of the Turf, 10 Typhoon Tracy wins, next.
I have a hunch one of the top weight stayers will lead the charge some lengths away, possibly Zipping with a gun ride from Hall, with Heart of Dreams thereabouts.
R8 - Looks like the race is there for 5 Velocitea, good first up performer proven over this course/distance in slightly harder races. Trialled well with a win over Snipers Bullet & Gran Sasso. Don't think we've seen the best of her and Price is the man to bring it out. Big watch on 7 Flying Tessie watch betting she is classy but might not be cooked yet.
R9 - Well I hope its a good day for favourites, as 1 Miss Maren is my top pick purely on class, good first up performer and distance is just long enough for her to show up. Heres hoping 2 Moatize puts in a good return showing too after his inury layoff as he is a Cups horse.
Good luck.
