Orr Stakes - Caulfield, Saturday 6th February

Lockyer24

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Probably my favourite race of this time of the year, all the good horses seem to come back for this, and my fave horses always seem to win it.

R1 - Interesting and even race to start with. Don't mind 7 Carbon Trader. 2 starts back over a mile he ran home well down the outside to be beaten 1.3L by Bangerang Quickpic (a nice little horse), then over the same distance last start Nolen had him stuck on the rail where it didn't appear that he wanted to let go and he finished a meddling although not disgraceful 2.9L 9th. Williams is back in the saddle, so if there is not too much of a leader bias watch for him to swoop home hard on the outside of the field.

R2 - Very tough race to pick, the outsider of the field at 16-1 has won 3 of 7 starts! Another outsider 8 Floren beat a bunch of muppets by 8 lengths on debut untouched, and Suttons horses are generally over the odds. Might be worth a peak at $12? I could make a case for everything just about here so I won't bother.

R3 - 1 Denman did something special first up last week which reminded me a little of an old horse I saw once.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0BOSKhRVbE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R29NWNHXXS4
I've gone a little over the top there, but the way he eased off heels knuckled down then went into warp drive in the final 200 was beautiful to watch. He has generally hit the lead early and held his margin in a lot of races, but nothing beats class prevailing like that. I'm on board.
My bet for the race however is 2 Carrara at $1.92 fixed to run a place 1st/2nd (No Third Divi). Home track, placed 10/11, his ideal distance, not a difficult race.

R4 - I have gone for the Vasil first starter 8 Psychologist here purely on gut feel, she is $7 into $5 today (I got on at $5.50). These races are guessing games, the Choisir filly will do me. I will only think of getting confident if there is an Aquanita plunge like Lucky Secret a few years ago.

R5 - 5 Beneteau is the early buzz horse after his impressive win up in Sydney. Interesting sign is theyve kept the apprentice on for the ride down here - sign of confidence? He ran comparable time on dead going to the Melbourne horses on good going - and Im not sure he was fully extended either. I'm following 2 Innocent Gamble but an even run here couldn't hurt before the Diamond. 3 Secession did it easy on debut, unsure he beat much but will run well. 6 Pellizotti has been putting in eye catchers and the extra trip will suit. All in all an interesting race, I won't be going hard except a small wager on 5, place the 2.

R6 - The biggest factor in this race is the barriers, with my fancies drawing the outside, 1 Lucky Secret (10) and 9 Irish Lights (11). As such both are at very backable odds, but LS will need all his usual gatespeed to get the front running position while IL will probably save herself for one big burst. Despite this I think they will knock off Avenue (1), I'm just debating whether Irish Lights will be able to chase down Lucky Secret in the final 100. To be safe stick with the Secret.

R7 - Queen of the Turf, 10 Typhoon Tracy wins, next.
I have a hunch one of the top weight stayers will lead the charge some lengths away, possibly Zipping with a gun ride from Hall, with Heart of Dreams thereabouts.

R8 - Looks like the race is there for 5 Velocitea, good first up performer proven over this course/distance in slightly harder races. Trialled well with a win over Snipers Bullet & Gran Sasso. Don't think we've seen the best of her and Price is the man to bring it out. Big watch on 7 Flying Tessie watch betting she is classy but might not be cooked yet.

R9 - Well I hope its a good day for favourites, as 1 Miss Maren is my top pick purely on class, good first up performer and distance is just long enough for her to show up. Heres hoping 2 Moatize puts in a good return showing too after his inury layoff as he is a Cups horse.

Good luck.
 

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GoodesStuff

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#2
R7 - Queen of the Turf, 10 Typhoon Tracy wins, next.
On Sportsbet they have this promotion where if you back a horse in this feature race and it comes 2nd you get your money back!

SURELY Typhoon Tracy finishes top 2. It should win but there is this sense of security that at worst you should be breaking even.
 

Ron

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#3
TT will shit it in. Christ if she can't beat a bunch of resuming stayers then she should never race outside her sex again.

Take Denman into TT and you could probably double your cash.
 

tige19

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Has there ever in history been a easier double?? Denman into TT... havent even looked at the prices yet but I think you would get around the $3-$3.40 mark!! might put a few limes on it and be done for the day.
 
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Rough_Edges

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Fantastic day of racing at Caufield tomorrow.

Typhoon wins but will be good to see if a few of the stayers can charge home to make up some lengths and you'd think one of them would as L24 said.
 

Colin D'Cops

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#11
1) 8 / Old Jock
2) 8 / Big Spirit
3) 1 / Denman
4) 4 / Panipique
5) 6 / Pellizotti
6) 10 / Avenue
7) 10 / Typhoon Tracy
8) 5 / Velocitea
9) 4 / La Rocket
 

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Bambino

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#12
That Aus Cup win of Lohnro's gives me chills. I've got the whole race on my computer and absolutely love it.

Hard to split Lucky Secret, Avenue and Irish Light in the 6th but gone with Lucky Secret. Don't think the quaddie will be too hard today
 

_SYT_

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#13
Denman could’ve doubled the margin. He won that ridiculously easy and was a joy to watch.
Psychologist and Beneteau = WOW. Forced to choose one in the BD, I’d have to go with the colt atm, think he made a meal of a stronger field, but both deserve their favouritism in the big one. Pellizotti was disappointingly even after having decent support during the week (have a 50-1 bet on him for the BD riding) and will now be lucky to make the field, ah well, easy come, easy go.
It was a crying shame to see Lucky Secret get beat. That said, Here De Angels was a sensational run (and franked the form of Black Caviar!), but Lucky Secret backers (including me) are entitled to feel dudded :p
Typhoon Tracy is currently the best girl in the country and one of the best horses, if not the best up to a mile, in the country – and she won like it. Pleasing run from one of my faves in Heart Of Dreams – but he would’ve been disappointing if he didn’t finish there.
Miss Maren is now a firmer for the Australian Cup – I don’t think her price now is an indicator of her ability, but today was an outstanding win, she’s a good mile and a quarter horse and does have a nice sprint on her.

Fun day. The Orr was a great race, even if it was a procession – best horse won, and she will keep winning.
 

Lockyer24

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Thread starter #15
Probably my favourite race of this time of the year, all the good horses seem to come back for this, and my fave horses always seem to win it.

R1 - Interesting and even race to start with. Don't mind 7 Carbon Trader. 2 starts back over a mile he ran home well down the outside to be beaten 1.3L by Bangerang Quickpic (a nice little horse), then over the same distance last start Nolen had him stuck on the rail where it didn't appear that he wanted to let go and he finished a meddling although not disgraceful 2.9L 9th. Williams is back in the saddle, so if there is not too much of a leader bias watch for him to swoop home hard on the outside of the field.

R2 - Very tough race to pick, the outsider of the field at 16-1 has won 3 of 7 starts! Another outsider 8 Floren beat a bunch of muppets by 8 lengths on debut untouched, and Suttons horses are generally over the odds. Might be worth a peak at $12? I could make a case for everything just about here so I won't bother.

R3 - 1 Denman did something special first up last week which reminded me a little of an old horse I saw once.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0BOSKhRVbE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R29NWNHXXS4
I've gone a little over the top there, but the way he eased off heels knuckled down then went into warp drive in the final 200 was beautiful to watch. He has generally hit the lead early and held his margin in a lot of races, but nothing beats class prevailing like that. I'm on board.
My bet for the race however is 2 Carrara at $1.92 fixed to run a place 1st/2nd (No Third Divi). Home track, placed 10/11, his ideal distance, not a difficult race.

R4 - I have gone for the Vasil first starter 8 Psychologist here purely on gut feel, she is $7 into $5 today (I got on at $5.50). These races are guessing games, the Choisir filly will do me. I will only think of getting confident if there is an Aquanita plunge like Lucky Secret a few years ago.

R5 - 5 Beneteau is the early buzz horse after his impressive win up in Sydney. Interesting sign is theyve kept the apprentice on for the ride down here - sign of confidence? He ran comparable time on dead going to the Melbourne horses on good going - and Im not sure he was fully extended either. I'm following 2 Innocent Gamble but an even run here couldn't hurt before the Diamond. 3 Secession did it easy on debut, unsure he beat much but will run well. 6 Pellizotti has been putting in eye catchers and the extra trip will suit. All in all an interesting race, I won't be going hard except a small wager on 5, place the 2.

R6 - The biggest factor in this race is the barriers, with my fancies drawing the outside, 1 Lucky Secret (10) and 9 Irish Lights (11). As such both are at very backable odds, but LS will need all his usual gatespeed to get the front running position while IL will probably save herself for one big burst. Despite this I think they will knock off Avenue (1), I'm just debating whether Irish Lights will be able to chase down Lucky Secret in the final 100. To be safe stick with the Secret.

R7 - Queen of the Turf, 10 Typhoon Tracy wins, next.
I have a hunch one of the top weight stayers will lead the charge some lengths away, possibly Zipping with a gun ride from Hall, with Heart of Dreams thereabouts.

R8 - Looks like the race is there for 5 Velocitea, good first up performer proven over this course/distance in slightly harder races. Trialled well with a win over Snipers Bullet & Gran Sasso. Don't think we've seen the best of her and Price is the man to bring it out. Big watch on 7 Flying Tessie watch betting she is classy but might not be cooked yet.

R9 - Well I hope its a good day for favourites, as 1 Miss Maren is my top pick purely on class, good first up performer and distance is just long enough for her to show up. Heres hoping 2 Moatize puts in a good return showing too after his inury layoff as he is a Cups horse.

Good luck.
Pretty happy with the days racing, fairly predictable just how I like it!

Had my first collect on Carrara (was hard to not watch Denman though!) then Psychologist and Benetau landed me a nice little Prelude double.

Lucky Secret was stiff but I heard earlier in the day they were going to ride Here De Angels a bit quieter, I guess thats why Kav does so well, it was a winning move for sure. He really has rejuvenated that horse.

The day finished nicely with Typhoon Tracy (took $1.60), Velocitea just held on after a gun ride from Ollie, and Miss Marens class shone through with an awesome barnstorming win. I nearly spewed up though when I saw it paid $7.50, I got much much worse than that....

Blue Diamond is going to be a cracker, think I'll def have to head along to see it now. Hard to split the two Prelude winners though...
 

_SYT_

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#16
Hard to split the two Prelude winners though...
It was similarly hard to split Rostova and Real Saga last year after their dominant prelude wins.

Happy to be corrected, but over the last decade I believe only Alinghi and Bel Esprit have done the Prelude-Diamond double - not that I'm saying that Psychologist or Beneteau cannot be every bit as good as those two, but it's some record and especially with this age group, is something to be respected.
 
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