Analysis Our Backline

[Ati Tude]

Coming into this year the backline looked pretty awful on paper but its been a pleasant surprise on numerous fronts.
Firstly Hind has been an incredible pickup. We were incredibly short on small defenders after losing both Saad and McKenna so it can't be overstated how big a find he actually is. Could easily see him playing 100+ games for us.
Ridley was our only highly rated player but he'd only done it for one year and fortunately he's not only backed it up but is perhaps even slightly better.
Francis has had a career characterised by regular injuries and inconsistent form with flashes of talent. Honestly its a bit more of the same but he's been on the better end form wise and I think there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Laverde the most surprising for me. I wouldn't say he's totally proven but he's starting to look like a solid option down back. The real question is will his move down back let him stay fit in the longer term. It worked for Hurley.
Redman struggled last year but he's regained form and is looking very solid right now. Again super important given our lack of small defender depth.
Heppell whilst not setting the world on fire I think is starting to get some fitness and form and given how inexperienced our backline is I think he will become very valuable in the role as time goes on.

That said despite my positive reviews I wouldn't say collectively as a unit we are the best defensively. Its also pretty clear we don't have anyone capable of standing a monster key forward eg Hawkins, Dixon etc. Maybe Stewart can be that guy, his injury was really unfortunate.

I don't mind the look of Brand and Reid for the long term but they will take some time. BZT I think is not quite up to it.

Think you have nailed it all on the head there. If Stewart can deal with the goliaths and we find a way to play Reid to develop, the depth looks good too. The key shame about Reid's illness is that it would be good to get games into him whilst Stewart is finding his way back in case we can't fit them all in. But Laverde and Redman have been terrific. Laverde's game against Pies was awesome. Even got a goal (as did Redman). Gaining in confidence with some continuity.

 

[Hak94]

Guelfi seems to mainly play back when he gets to play. He is quick (was in our top 5 quickest in some speed measurement thing during games last year and that list included Fanta, McKenna and Saad) and goes in pretty hard. Has some areas to work on but is the closest answer to having someone to play on small forwards and offers more than Cahill at this stage.

Am I the only one that sees Guelfi as potentially a tagger? I know they aren't in vogue as of recent times due to the way the game is being played but, he looks to be a player that niggles and annoys the opposition + he looks like he has that edge that plays a little angry at times. If he could build his tank up a little more, I just feel like this could be his role in the team. I really like him as a player, don't think he has shown enough yet to suggest he's going to be a star but I think he is an honest type of player and he has a role somewhere. Not sure it's as a defender though as there are some deficiencies in his game.

 

[faible]

Am I the only one that sees Guelfi as potentially a tagger? I know they aren't in vogue as of recent times due to the way the game is being played but, he looks to be a player that niggles and annoys the opposition + he looks like he has that edge that plays a little angry at times. If he could build his tank up a little more, I just feel like this could be his role in the team. I really like him as a player, don't think he has shown enough yet to suggest he's going to be a star but I think he is an honest type of player and he has a role somewhere. Not sure it's as a defender though as there are some deficiencies in his game.

I get the feeling the age of the dedicated tagger is over, all the guys that play a negating role now are still good accumulators themselves than can impact the play whilst following an opposition midfielder. De Boer the odd one out a little, but he's also one of about 3 GWS players that appear to play a team-first style of game so he adds a lot for them.

 

[Hak94]

Coming into this year the backline looked pretty awful on paper but its been a pleasant surprise on numerous fronts.
Firstly Hind has been an incredible pickup. We were incredibly short on small defenders after losing both Saad and McKenna so it can't be overstated how big a find he actually is. Could easily see him playing 100+ games for us.
Ridley was our only highly rated player but he'd only done it for one year and fortunately he's not only backed it up but is perhaps even slightly better.
Francis has had a career characterised by regular injuries and inconsistent form with flashes of talent. Honestly its a bit more of the same but he's been on the better end form wise and I think there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Laverde the most surprising for me. I wouldn't say he's totally proven but he's starting to look like a solid option down back. The real question is will his move down back let him stay fit in the longer term. It worked for Hurley.
Redman struggled last year but he's regained form and is looking very solid right now. Again super important given our lack of small defender depth.
Heppell whilst not setting the world on fire I think is starting to get some fitness and form and given how inexperienced our backline is I think he will become very valuable in the role as time goes on.

That said despite my positive reviews I wouldn't say collectively as a unit we are the best defensively. Its also pretty clear we don't have anyone capable of standing a monster key forward eg Hawkins, Dixon etc. Maybe Stewart can be that guy, his injury was really unfortunate.

I don't mind the look of Brand and Reid for the long term but they will take some time. BZT I think is not quite up to it.

I think Redman's form this year is part due to how the game may have shifted a little too, not just how we're playing but also the game in general. It looks to have shifted more to the outside + with a few rule changes it's allowed his dash + rebounding ability to be really unleashed again. The new standing on the mark rule really allows him (as well as other players) to find that extra space to be more creative. I know it may sound silly or small but sometimes little things like that can really change how a player plays. Just what I've observed anyway.

Couldn't agree more with the BZT statement. I think just about every Essendon supporter feels the same way about him, he just doesn't look cut out for it. I don't know what it is, personally, I think it's a confidence thing. Someone just needs to tell him to knuckle down and find it within himself to work harder and play more confident. At times he looks so lost when he plays, going to contests or even in one-on-one situations. He just looks scared when he plays. You just need to watch how he approaches his opponent, he looks to always be chasing or hunting them rather then being the one that should be hunted. I feel like if last offseason wasn't already a big one for him to prove himself, then this offseason is a make or break for him. IMO - Ridley needs to get in his ear and possibly take him under his wing, if he hasn't already. There was clearly something that sparked something in Ridley pre-2020 when he felt like it was a make or break time in his career as a player, as per he has stated. I think it's time BZT did the same. Harsh assessment but I think all Essendon supporters would love to see him come on as a player!

 

[Hak94]

I get the feeling the age of the dedicated tagger is over, all the guys that play a negating role now are still good accumulators themselves than can impact the play whilst following an opposition midfielder. De Boer the odd one out a little, but he's also one of about 3 GWS players that appear to play a team-first style of game so he adds a lot for them.

Yeah, definitely agree with this statement. De Boer still seems to be able to get his 15-20 touches a game, which certainly helps when you're playing that negating role. Maybe even a wing position? There's been talk of pushing Shiel out on the wing with the progression of Parish + recruitment of Caldwell but Shiel is a clear CC beast, so I'm not sure they'd do that. So, perhaps a wing role for Guelfi could suit. Cox may shift into the midfield overtime but I think we're seeing just how valuable and dominant he can potentially be on one of the wings. Ham looks to constantly be growing with more games + being backed in on the other wing too, so I'd say both wings are locked down at this point. It'll be interesting to see how they use Guelfi.

 

[faible]

I think Redman's form this year is part due to how the game may have shifted a little too, not just how we're playing but also the game in general. It looks to have shifted more to the outside + with a few rule changes it's allowed his dash + rebounding ability to be really unleashed again. The new standing on the mark rule really allows him (as well as other players) to find that extra space to be more creative. I know it may sound silly or small but sometimes little things like that can really change how a player plays. Just what I've observed anyway.

Couldn't agree more with the BZT statement. I think just about every Essendon supporter feels the same way about him, he just doesn't look cut out for it. I don't know what it is, personally, I think it's a confidence thing. Someone just needs to tell him to knuckle down and find it within himself to work harder and play more confident. At times he looks so lost when he plays, going to contests or even in one-on-one situations. He just looks scared when he plays. You just need to watch how he approaches his opponent, he looks to always be chasing or hunting them rather then being the one that should be hunted. I feel like if last offseason wasn't already a big one for him to prove himself, then this offseason is a make or break for him. IMO - Ridley needs to get in his ear and possibly take him under his wing, if he hasn't already. There was clearly something that sparked something in Ridley pre-2020 when he felt like it was a make or break time in his career as a player, as per he has stated. I think it's time BZT did the same. Harsh assessment but I think all Essendon supporters would love to see him come on as a player!

I think we all forget that BZT was a very late selection, less than half the guys picked in that range will even play 20 games.

He doesn't seem particularly unfit to me, but he lacks speed and size. He's big 'enough' and fast 'enough' to be a good VFL level player, but when you get to AFL level that means he's often seen trailing behind his man, and isn't strong enough to really play a stand and wrestle style game the way Hooker could once his hamstrings were destroyed.

Speed wise he'd be better suited to play on the resting ruckman, but he doesn't have the height or strength to really be able to control them.

I hope he does make it, we'd be a better side with a genuine FB that allows Francis & Ridley to play a little more freely and use their intercept marking and kicking to advantage, but there's a reason we picked up Reid and have been trying Stewart out in defence.

 

[citizen-erased]

Coming into this year the backline looked pretty awful on paper but its been a pleasant surprise on numerous fronts.
Firstly Hind has been an incredible pickup. We were incredibly short on small defenders after losing both Saad and McKenna so it can't be overstated how big a find he actually is. Could easily see him playing 100+ games for us.
Ridley was our only highly rated player but he'd only done it for one year and fortunately he's not only backed it up but is perhaps even slightly better.
Francis has had a career characterised by regular injuries and inconsistent form with flashes of talent. Honestly its a bit more of the same but he's been on the better end form wise and I think there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Laverde the most surprising for me. I wouldn't say he's totally proven but he's starting to look like a solid option down back. The real question is will his move down back let him stay fit in the longer term. It worked for Hurley.
Redman struggled last year but he's regained form and is looking very solid right now. Again super important given our lack of small defender depth.
Heppell whilst not setting the world on fire I think is starting to get some fitness and form and given how inexperienced our backline is I think he will become very valuable in the role as time goes on.

That said despite my positive reviews I wouldn't say collectively as a unit we are the best defensively. Its also pretty clear we don't have anyone capable of standing a monster key forward eg Hawkins, Dixon etc. Maybe Stewart can be that guy, his injury was really unfortunate.

I don't mind the look of Brand and Reid for the long term but they will take some time. BZT I think is not quite up to it.

Agree with this
I know we have Ambrose training up forward, but he's a super capable strong defender too. The ability to play him at either end is handy.

Recruiting KPD's can be put on the back burner for a bit now.
One more pacey rebounder (Lachie Ash type) would be handy for future planning/depth. Hind enters his prime age wise now. But if he went down, we're short on pace.

 

[Hak94]

Agree with this
I know we have Ambrose training up forward, but he's a super capable strong defender too. The ability to play him at either end is handy.

Recruiting KPD's can be put on the back burner for a bit now.
One more pacey rebounder (Lachie Ash type) would be handy for future planning/depth. Hind enters his prime age wise now. But if he went down, we're short on pace.

I'm not a fan of "having a player at either end", it doesn't enable them to find consistency in establishing their spot. It's only just starting to work out for Hooker but that's because they've been stubborn in not throwing him down back due to his body + needing a big pillar up forward who can mark. Ambrose showed he can be a super capable lockdown defender (when fit), I don't know why they're pushing him up the ground into the forward line, it doesn't make sense to me. Sure, it's handy to know he may be able to play both ends but I just think play him where he actually wants to play + has shown he can be a gamechanger.

Wouldn't go astray to possibly draft another KPD though. Whether that's down the draft order, finding a gem in the 30s or 40s (if they're there). Reid looks like he'll need another really strong preseason or two to put on size before he'll really be establishing himself in the team. I'm sure Essendon was looking at Ash, but he's virtually just resigned from what I've seen.

 

[faible]

I don't know why they're pushing him up the ground into the forward line, it doesn't make sense to me.

I get the sense they're putting the younger guys where they want them, then the senior guys get shoved anywhere they'll fit around that.

They want a backline of Stewart, Ridley, Francis, Laverde, Redman & Hind as their ideal back-6 this season is my guess. Stewart goes out, so BZT comes in, BZT out, Reid in.

Ambrose isn't a long-term option in defence for us, he'll finish the season at 30 having played 20 games in a season once, having missed all of 2020, and despite being a wonderful athlete, doesn't appear likely to be a reliable (a.k.a durable) option for 3-5 years in that backline.

 

[citizen-erased]

I'm not a fan of "having a player at either end", it doesn't enable them to find consistency in establishing their spot. It's only just starting to work out for Hooker but that's because they've been stubborn in not throwing him down back due to his body + needing a big pillar up forward who can mark. Ambrose showed he can be a super capable lockdown defender (when fit), I don't know why they're pushing him up the ground into the forward line, it doesn't make sense to me. Sure, it's handy to know he may be able to play both ends but I just think play him where he actually wants to play + has shown he can be a gamechanger.

Wouldn't go astray to possibly draft another KPD though. Whether that's down the draft order, finding a gem in the 30s or 40s (if they're there). Reid looks like he'll need another really strong preseason or two to put on size before he'll really be establishing himself in the team. I'm sure Essendon was looking at Ash, but he's virtually just resigned from what I've seen.

An Ash type. I doubt GWS ever let Ash go. Kid is a gun.
Finds it, uses it well and has great dash. Has all the tools to be as good as McLeod was in that role.

Agree on the swing thing. I am very happy we're letting Hooker finish up as a key forward.
With Jones, Stringer, Waterman and Wright, plus Bryan an option and possibly even Hurley, i'd be earmarking Ambrose to play key back.
Also got Baldwin and Eyre in the wings.

e.g WCE game i'd be running Stewart + Ambrose for JJK and Darling
Francis to Allan
Ridley to Brander (sort of)

If the game doesn't warrant both (Pies perhaps), then drop one based on needs or move one forward should that also warrant.

Will be interesting to see the role forward they have in mind for him. For the first time in a long time, i'm certainly not second guessing the coaching.

 

[Hak94]

I get the sense they're putting the younger guys where they want them, then the senior guys get shoved anywhere they'll fit around that.

They want a backline of Stewart, Ridley, Francis, Laverde, Redman & Hind as their ideal back-6 this season is my guess. Stewart goes out, so BZT comes in, BZT out, Reid in.

Ambrose isn't a long-term option in defence for us, he'll finish the season at 30 having played 20 games in a season once, having missed all of 2020, and despite being a wonderful athlete, doesn't appear likely to be a reliable (a.k.a durable) option for 3-5 years in that backline.

I really hope the Stewart role in defence works out, truly. I also hope Reid comes along a lot quicker than we all think too.

Yeah, it's a shame about Ambrose. Looks to be a real "club man" too.

 

[eth-dog]

So anyway, you all know I do a bit on forward and defensive efficiencies in all of my previews, I finally got around to making it into a spreadsheet. As of right now (round 6) we are bottom 6 in terms of conceding a goal for every inside 50 we concede, which is to be expected since we're generally playing with one genuine key defender each week.

Here's the link for anyone that's curious:



Now to put a similar blurb into the forward line one!

 

[eth-dog]

So now we're slipping into the bottom 4 defensively. Luckily for us, GWS are bottom 4 on the offensive side of things so it somewhat cancels each other out.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Id love to see the score stats for pressured vs unpressured inside 50s. Would be the best metric for how effective your defence is vs team defence.

 

[Lore]

Id love to see the score stats for pressured vs unpressured inside 50s. Would be the best metric for how effective your defence is vs team defence.

I think the only proxy we have for that is marks inside 50 as a proportion of all inside 50s. It's not perfect but you'd expect unpressured inside 50s would be more likely to result in a mark.

 

[MiguelM]

Not so sure tagging is dead, they did a good job on Merrett at times.

 

[andleanback]

So now we're slipping into the bottom 4 defensively. Luckily for us, GWS are bottom 4 on the offensive side of things so it somewhat cancels each other out.

Going on the way gws played yesterday get ready for a touch up, another interstate trip after a big couple of weeks. Would not be surprised if we get done by 7-8 goals on the road.

 

[Hak94]

Not so sure tagging is dead, they did a good job on Merrett at times.

Curnow is one of those notorious run with players. Not sure it was a hard HARD tagging role he played but he certainly made him work yesterday.

 

[eth-dog]

I think last night was our ideal structure defensively. Having two genuine key defenders helped enormously, as it allowed Laverde to take Darling, who does play like a tall, but is a better size match up for him. The awkward part will be trying to fit Francis back in, do we move someone further afield Heppell?) or what?

2x key defenders: Stewart, Zerk/Reid
3x medium defenders: Ridley, Laverde, Francis/Heppell
2x small defenders: Redman, Hind

 

[Zach Package]

Disagree Eth, worked perfectly last night against a side that relies on marking the footy and doesn’t apply frontal pressure but they’re an outlier in that regard.

Bit cumbersome and slow I think, particularly given Rutten wants agile and the ability to switch everything

 

[eth-dog]

Disagree Eth, worked perfectly last night against a side that relies on marking the footy and doesn’t apply frontal pressure but they’re an outlier in that regard.

Bit cumbersome and slow I think, particularly given Rutten wants agile and the ability to switch everything

We've been exposed by key forwards regularly. We looked much more defensively sound last night and we were still strong offensively from the back.

 

[BrunoV]

I think the defence is looking great on paper but it's still very much a work in progress which is evident from the way the back 7 was deployed in the second half of 2021.

We gave a number of jobs to Ridley that he didn't seem particularly suited to (certainly not as suited as Stewart or Laverde). I've been operating on the assumption that we were tyring to develop the previously lacking defensive side of Ridley's game. He's generally done well and has made significant improvement to the point that he has played on Naughton twice and done quite well. He did a good job on Greene. It's really only Papley that got hold of Ridley, but then Papley is one of the best forwards in the game.

I would be surprised if we persist with using Ridley on a player as powerful as Naughton, particularly given the quality of his intercept game. I would have thought Laverde, who we have not yet used in a more offensive role, is better suited to that type of forward.

It's also hard to work out what we have been doing with Stewart in the last 4 to 6 games.

There is a rotation of the defenders I'm not picking up which might explain some of it but it seems to me that he is being picked to play on deep lying mid-sized forwards with the aim of using him to zone off at half back (in the way Port do with Aliir). He's been good for 15 possessions a week since we started using him like this but I can't say it has coincided with the sort of prolific intercept game or significant aerial presence you'd expected from someone his size (and with his new found marking strength).

You'd think, for example, that he was the match up for English in the EM but it was mainly Laverde with Stewart seeming mostly to play on Vandermeer.

It will be interesting to see how things settle next year or if the second half of 2021 is the long term plan. You'd think there is an intention to get Reid into the side ASAP but, my guess is, that will depend on Francis. I would be very surprised if Stewart is not in the medium term plan to play on an opponent's number 1 or at least rotate with Laverde based on the matchup which leave Reid to play as a third tall and Ridley to play on a flank.

We were able to play Stewart, Laverde, Francis, Ridley, Redman, Hind and Heppell in the same team. Our 7 defenders for the EM were Stewart, Laverde, Ridley, Redman, Gleeson, Cutler and Heppell. I don't think adding Reid (and Hind) to the mix will imbalance the team. I think the extra big intercept/zoning defender will suit because we don't have a dominant aerial presence at this stage.

In 2022, with it being unlikely that we will pursue either of Young or Carlisle, I'd like to see a back 7 of:

SD1: Redman (HB)	KPD1: Stewart	3TD: Reid (HB)
HB: Hind	KPD2: Laverde (SD2)	HB: Ridley (SD3/3TD)
7D: Heppell

The next step in the progression of the unit will be to have Laverde play small, which I think he can do, and even more of a half back role. Again, I think he is a better match up for the like of Papley and Greene than Ridley (and potentially Redman).

A potential fly in the ointment is if we're not in the business of letting defenders come into a team playing unaccountable roles, which would mean Reid is probably going to have to wait (as I can't see him playing on the oppositions best forwards next year). It may just have been a specific approach for Ridley because he struggled defensively.

Ultimately, you'd want to add another Hind-quick half back with Ridley to assume Heppell's role (though that may not be happening any time soon). In any event, I really like the look of the defence and with the potential improvement over a pre-season, I wouldn't trade it for any defence out there.

 

[Bjchan13]

Thats the back 7 id like to see in round 1

 

[Ati Tude]

Another creative runner wouldnt go astray but that might need to be McGrath next year anyway if all the other mids are fit.

Going to be interesting to see where Francis fits into things. There will always be injuries which might open a spot but if Hurley is going to be forward and with Jones there, there isnt much of a spot for Francis, plus he isnt a natural forward despite competing hard. Reid may be in and out for a bit too.

 

[eth-dog]

It depends on what we do with Francis for me. He's in that awkward position where Laverde's better defensively, Ridley's better offensively and he isn't the general that Heppell is. I'd love to give Reid the year in defence but I feel like that can only happen if Francis is up forward. Pushing Hind and Reid in for Cutler and Gleeson from the weekend, I'd go with something like:

Stewart - English
Reid - Schache
Laverde - Naughton
Heppell - Hannan
Hind - Weightman
Redman - Vandermeer
Ridley - R Smith

I know that's not how they lined up but Naughton has looked extremely dangerous against us both times so I'm hoping we switch it around a bit