Our best rolling 22

[Gethelred]

There is no best 22. It's entirely subjective and always in a state of constant flux.

Oh, I don't know. I think most would have 16/22 of the same players in their teams.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Oh, I don't know. I think most would have 16/22 of the same players in their teams.

why not reduce you fraction to a more usable figure .... 8/11 or

0.72727272727

You're a strange scooter.

 

[Macca43]

I can agree with this. Teague, the game plan, and the player buy in, also, is something worth mentioning.

Question: Is Kamdyn McIntosh any better than Newnes? Secondly, does Patrick Naish have more potential than Kamdyn? Is this any different to Newnes vs O'Brien? Gibbons vs Stocker?

Maybe, maybe not - but McIntosh is playing in a side that won the premiership and doesn't need to improve, Newnes is playing in a side that finished 11th and needs dramatic improvement. Given we don't have Martin, Cotchin and Prestia rolling through our midfield we need more from the fringe.

 

[Garters]

3/2 people have trouble with fractions

I'm not one of those three tooths

 

[Stamos]

Question: Is Kamdyn McIntosh any better than Newnes? Secondly, does Patrick Naish have more potential than Kamdyn? Is this any different to Newnes vs O'Brien? Gibbons vs Stocker?

I'm not sure that using Richmond players as examples/comparisons is particularly useful, given their unique gameplan (and their success) revolves entirely around a single player.

Jason Castagna has won 3 flags in that team, but how many other sides could afford to carry a player who burned 6 (6!!!!!) shots in a Grand Final? That is costing pretty much any other team a Premiership, but it doesn't matter to the Tiges because Dusty.

 

[CJMB]

Maybe, maybe not - but McIntosh is playing in a side that won the premiership and doesn't need to improve, Newnes is playing in a side that finished 11th and needs dramatic improvement. Given we don't have Martin, Cotchin and Prestia rolling through our midfield we need more from the fringe.

Let's see how he goes this year with some better quality inside of him (a fit/big Cripps, another year into Walsh & Setters, Williams, more Martin mid minutes), more rebound ball coming through (Saad, SPS another PS in def, Doc blowing out more cobwebs, Newman and/or Marchbank back?), now knowing the players/system/coaches better, etc.

Before he got moved to HF at Moorabin he was putting up decent averages, last year was actually his 2nd lowest average possession season.

Maybe he'll get a bit of a less defensive role, Teague apparently liked having one or both wingers a fair way out of the contest, guarding space and providing an option for a pass more than actually getting involved. If we start getting our wingers involved more, why couldn't Newnes get back up to that 20+ average? And if he did, would you call that a dramatic improvement?


Let's wait and see how it pans out before writing anyone off.

 

[Arr0w]

Looking at the sides that finished above us, 4 have improved their list, 2 others breakeven, 4 declined

 

[Macca43]

Let's see how he goes this year with some better quality inside of him (a fit/big Cripps, another year into Walsh & Setters, Williams, more Martin mid minutes), more rebound ball coming through (Saad, SPS another PS in def, Doc blowing out more cobwebs, Newman and/or Marchbank back?), now knowing the players/system/coaches better, etc.

Before he got moved to HF at Moorabin he was putting up decent averages, last year was actually his 2nd lowest average possession season.

Maybe he'll get a bit of a less defensive role, Teague apparently liked having one or both wingers a fair way out of the contest, guarding space and providing an option for a pass more than actually getting involved. If we start getting our wingers involved more, why couldn't Newnes get back up to that 20+ average? And if he did, would you call that a dramatic improvement?

View attachment 1046647
Let's wait and see how it pans out before writing anyone off.

2017 was some time ago.

Not writing him off, simply backing others to be better.

 

[Macca43]

Looking at the sides that finished above us, 4 have improved their list, 2 others breakeven, 4 declined

Which are which, IYO?

I have Brisbane, Geelong, St Kilda, Bulldogs and Melbourne all improving
Port, Richmond & West Coast Breaking even (all top 5)
Collingwood & GWS declining.

I also have Freo & the Suns improving to be in the mix for the 8.

 

[Arr0w]

Which are which, IYO?

I have Brisbane, Geelong, St Kilda, Bulldogs and Melbourne all improving
Port, Richmond & West Coast Breaking even (all top 5)
Collingwood & GWS declining.

I also have Freo & the Suns improving to be in the mix for the 8.

From sides that finished above us, considering list changes

Cats, Port, Saint, WB

Square

Lions, WCE

Declined

Pies, GWS, Demons, Tigers

 

[Macca43]

From sides that finished above us, considering list changes

Cats, Port, Saint, WB

Square

Lions, WCE

Declined

Pies, GWS, Demons, Tigers

Clearly not a fan of key forwards.

 

[Arr0w]

Clearly not a fan of key forwards.

Making assumptions again?

Talking Lions, Demons?

 

[Macca43]

Making assumptions again?

Talking Lions, Demons?

Hard to say the young developing lions having added Daniher (they piece of the puzzle they were missing) have simply broken even.

Similarly the demons big gaping hole last year was a key forward and the added a bloke who has kicked 196 goals in his last 74 games.

As for the Tigers declining, wishful thinking I suspect.

But regardless there is still going to be about 5 sides fighting for the last 2 spots.

 

[Arr0w]

Hard to say the young developing lions having added Daniher (they piece of the puzzle they were missing) have simply broken even.

Similarly the demons big gaping hole last year was a key forward and the added a bloke who has kicked 196 goals in his last 74 games.

As for the Tigers declining, wishful thinking I suspect.

But regardless there is still going to be about 5 sides fighting for the last 2 spots.

I rate both JD and Brown, but with the combined in and outs, they have lost durability and depth

As for the Tigers, not assessing possible output, they will still be top 4, just assessing whether lists have improved or not.

I think we are at the pointy end for improvement of list, having only lost Simmo

 

[Blue and Blue]

Oh, I don't know. I think most would have 16/22 of the same players in their teams.

Rightio mate...to the thunderdome .......

 

[Macca43]

I rate both JD and Brown, but with the combined in and outs, they have lost durability and depth

As for the Tigers, not assessing possible output, they will still be top 4, just assessing whether lists have improved or not.

I think we are at the pointy end for improvement of list, having only lost Simmo

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Don't see much of a loss in either the Lions or Dees list TBH.

However assuming you are correct there are 7 finalists from last year who have done enough with the list to be highly likely to be playing finals again - we need significant improvement.

 

[Blue and Blue]

Making assumptions again?

Talking Lions, Demons?

Last time I went to the zoo the lions didnt talk....fast asleep the lot of em

 

[CJMB]

Hard to say the young developing lions having added Daniher (they piece of the puzzle they were missing) have simply broken even.

Similarly the demons big gaping hole last year was a key forward and the added a bloke who has kicked 196 goals in his last 74 games.

As for the Tigers declining, wishful thinking I suspect.

But regardless there is still going to be about 5 sides fighting for the last 2 spots.

To be fair, Daniher has to get on the park consistently to make a difference. They also brought in Cockatoo who's in the same boat. Lost Martin so the ruck responsibility is pretty much gonna fall on Big O.

We'll have to wait and see how Brown goes at Melbourne. He could excel or he could struggle if he's not getting amazing delivery; be a purely lead-up tall he's a little one dimensional and if he doesn't gel straight away it might take some time until he can make a difference. Preuss & Hannan out is depth gone but realistically doesn't make much difference to the 22.

We'll also have to watch how Riewoldt goes this year, he's definitely on the decline as a player but if he does his little bit then Lynch, Martin & the smalls/mids will still kick scores. Tigers didn't bring anyone in but lost Higgins & Markov, so the only improvement would be internal from younger players like Bolton, Short, Baker, etc.

 

[Arr0w]

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Keep track of who's hanging up the boots, who's moving clubs and who's been given the pink slip with our comprehensive club-by-club listing

www.afl.com.au

Don't see much of a loss in either the Lions or Dees list TBH.

However assuming you are correct there are 7 finalists from last year who have done enough with the list to be highly likely to be playing finals again - we need significant improvement.

Thanks for sharing the ins and outs, but I am well aware of the names, so I won't be changing my analysis.

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We rated top 4 for qtrs won, the improvement only needs to be slight, not significant IMHO

 

[Macca43]

To be fair, Daniher has to get on the park consistently to make a difference. They also brought in Cockatoo who's in the same boat. Lost Martin so the ruck responsibility is pretty much gonna fall on Big O.

We'll have to wait and see how Brown goes at Melbourne. He could excel or he could struggle if he's not getting amazing delivery; be a purely lead-up tall he's a little one dimensional and if he doesn't gel straight away it might take some time until he can make a difference. Preuss & Hannan out is depth gone but realistically doesn't make much difference to the 22.

We'll also have to watch how Riewoldt goes this year, he's definitely on the decline as a player but if he does his little bit then Lynch, Martin & the smalls/mids will still kick scores. Tigers didn't bring anyone in but lost Higgins & Markov, so the only improvement would be internal from younger players like Bolton, Short, Baker, etc.

Martin only played 8 games last year and had statistically his worst ever year - I don't think he will be a big loss. Daniher does have to get on the park consistently but from all reports he is in get nick, I think we have to factor in him playing until shown otherwise.

Who is Brown replacing at the Dees? Even if he only kicks 30 goals it is hard to say he hasn't improved them.

 

[Macca43]

Thanks for sharing the ins and outs, but I am well aware of the names, so I won't be changing my analysis.

AFL 2020 off-season | AFL list changes, delisted players, trades, draft picks, retirements, indicative draft order, when is the trade period | FOX SPORTS

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We rated top 4 for qtrs won, the improvement only needs to be slight, not significant IMHO

Some would say that stat is selective.

We beat 1 top 6 side and 2 middle 5 sides - the majority of these 11 sides have improved.

We got belted by 2 of the bottom 6 (including the bottom side) and beat 3 of the other 4 by 8 point or less.

But you are entitled to your opinion.

 

[Arr0w]

Some would say that stat is selective.

We beat 1 top 6 side and 2 middle 5 sides - the majority of these 11 sides have improved.

We got belted by 2 of the bottom 6 (including the bottom side) and beat 3 of the other 4 by 8 point or less.

But you are entitled to your opinion.

Again, I am well aware of the results, but thanks again for pointing them out

This is where I really don't understand the lack of consistency in your posting.

You go from we won't make finals with certain players, to us winning 14-15 games ( which comfortably cements us in the 8), to questioning whether we make finals given teams around us.

It's mixed messaging like that, that causes robust debates

 

[skadoosh]

Some would say that stat is selective.

We beat 1 top 6 side and 2 middle 5 sides - the majority of these 11 sides have improved.

We got belted by 2 of the bottom 6 (including the bottom side) and beat 3 of the other 4 by 8 point or less.

But you are entitled to your opinion.

I feel a lot more optimistic than you.

2018 59%
2019 84%
2020 94%

We're adding Saad:


We're adding Williams:


Equal 4th in terms of total quarters won


Lowest average losing margin



Lots of room for improvement on our winning margin:

 

[Earls Smother]

Liked for flux. Much like flummoxed ... underutilised.

Liked for underutilised. Not used often enough.

Which I find befuddling, bewildering and bamboozling.

 

[Macca43]

Again, I am well aware of the results, but thanks again for pointing them out

This is where I really don't understand the lack of consistency in your posting.

You go from we won't make finals with certain players, to us winning 14-15 games ( which comfortably cements us in the 8), to questioning whether we make finals given teams around us.

It's mixed messaging like that that causes robust debates

Its the lack of understanding that causes the arguments.

It is pretty simple (as I have repeatedly said);
1) I think we need significant improvement to make finals
2) I think we will get significant improvement from the high quality young talent
3) If we get that significant improvement from the high quality young talent, other players have to make way - foot soldiers
4) If I am wrong about the high quality young talent then foot soldiers play more and my expectations for finals reduces. The more our side stays the same as 2020 the less improvement I expect and the harder it will be to catch those above us.

All it takes to understand that is the ability for nuanced thinking, some comprehension skills and not constructing strawmen.