Our best rolling 22

[Macca43]

I feel a lot more optimistic than you.

2018 59%
2019 84%
2020 94%

We're adding Saad:
View attachment 1046680

We're adding Williams:
View attachment 1046681

Equal 4th in terms of total quarters won
View attachment 1046684

Lowest average losing margin

View attachment 1046685

Lots of room for improvement on our winning margin:
View attachment 1046686

I'd agree with all of those but the sides above us have various forms of most of them as well which cancels them out - 7 is the key for young players are the key to me as it is the area we have the biggest potential and have an advantage over our competition.

 

[Earls Smother]

why not reduce you fraction to a more usable figure .... 8/11 or

0.72727272727

You're a strange scooter.

You are an Irrational Surd.

 

[Arr0w]

Its the lack of understanding that causes the arguments.

It is pretty simple (as I have repeatedly said);
1) I think we need significant improvement to make finals
2) I think we will get significant improvement from the high quality young talent
3) If we get that significant improvement from the high quality young talent, other players have to make way - foot soldiers
4) If I am wrong about the high quality young talent then foot soldiers play more and my expectations for finals reduces.

All it takes to understand that is the ability for nuanced thinking, some comprehension skills and not constructing strawmen.

A new interaction and doesn't take long for the personal attacks.

This is the first time you have been clear on all the factors, yet you are now questioning yourself, but target others.

"If I am right, result A, if wrong result B"

But you want to argue with others if it's result B

FML haha

I will just save all this for end of year lol

 

[skadoosh]

I'd agree with all of those but the sides above us have various forms of most of them as well which cancels them out - 7 is the key for young players are the key to me as it is the area we have the biggest potential and have an advantage over our competition.

Not sure what you did, but you put your reply in a quote.

I'd separate those 2 points entirely:
1. It would be utterly amazing for us if 2-3 of our young players stood up and played 22 games based on form. Pick 3 names from Dow, LOB, Stocker, Philp, even put Cuningham here too.
2. I see enough improvement for us as a team, whether or not those 2-3 young players stand up for us to be a finals side.

It's just too hard to quantify to say something like if the young players step up we win 15 games, but if they don't and we have to "rely" on foot soldiers then we only win 12 games.

 

[CJMB]

Its the lack of understanding that causes the arguments.

It is pretty simple (as I have repeatedly said);
1) I think we need significant improvement to make finals
2) I think we will get significant improvement from the high quality young talent
3) If we get that significant improvement from the high quality young talent, other players have to make way - foot soldiers
4) If I am wrong about the high quality young talent then foot soldiers play more and my expectations for finals reduces.

All it takes to understand that is the ability for nuanced thinking, some comprehension skills and not constructing strawmen.

What if the young kids improve as we're hoping but the 'foot soldiers' (**** I'm sick of that term now) continue to perform and actually improve themselves, holding out the kids? Newman's back to his 20+, Newnes gets a less defensive role out on the wing guarding space and gets back up to 20 too, Gibbons cleans up a bit of his delivery a touch and kicks a couple extra goals, Levi keeps away from the other forwards when they've got the sit on an incoming ball, etc.

If anything, that's giving us more of a chance than your scenario, which is more or less condensing the kids:'foot soldiers' ratio and our finals chances down to a simple correlation=causation example...

 

[Metalcrusher]

You are an Irrational Surd.

Sounds hot.

 

[JustaBattler]

Based on last year:

Carlton defeated Geelong ( GFists) / lost to Port after the siren (prelim finalists) / and smashed the Bulldogs ( finalists)

The biggest defeats for the year were 4 goal losses to Richmond in game 1, Collingwood where Stephenson had an extraordinary game (because we played with no wingmen) and Brisbane in the who cares last game - which included 3 Joe the goose goals from 55 meters out - 2 from an unmarked Ritchie

in terms of around the same finishes in '20 : Carlton lost to GWS, beat Fremantle and lost a very close game against Melbourne - coming back from a 7 goal deficit...

The season was bad because the team struggled to put away or lost to teams that should have been beaten : Hawthorn | Adelaide were awful losses whilst Norfs/Sydney were close wins but should have been bigger.

Carlton comprehensively smashed GCS in a game that showed what the team could do repeating the Geelong effort sans the 5 goal gimmes to them when Teague lost the plot - again.

My viewing showed that only Richmond and St Kilda comfortably outplayed Carlton in their respective encounters

Lots of reasons to be more positive about '21 - my main reason being that Teague must have learned a lot.

I think that WC/Brisbane will have a harder time of it in '21 as will Port if there is no repeat of hub play- if nothing else more travel will impact negatively.
I think Collingwood could easily fall back a few places if not more
St Kilda should improve
and I think age may start to catch up with WC and whilst cameron on paper shoudl be a huge lift for Geelong - GAblett is an equaly big out for them as he was their best link player last year.
Bulldogs I have no view on.
and Richmond will continue to play their game and keep pretenders who cant match their run at bay - for as long as Dustin Martin is there to score late in quarters when the opposition has had their legs run off them.

every side improves every year - but Norfs/Essendon have clearly gone backwards as far as list goes.

Port /St Kilda and Carlton have added to their on field capability.

Up our sleeve (potentially) is Charlie - add a 3/4 fit Charlie back to forward line and the whole equation will change - dramaticaly in our favour against anyone - same for Marchbank/Newman/SOJ who are quality.

I'm expecting no significant improvement from Dow/LoB /Cuningham or Stocker - and will probably be surprised positively.

We have Fogarty/Philp both first rounders developing - and Cottrell/Honey who I think will play sometime in '21 -- up our sleeves for surprises.

I can write a realy bearish case - but the potential for finals is more realistic - a bad run of injury AND/OR a lack of game plan development could see us miss out.

Doesn't really matter who we think will be starting 22 - all Teague has to do is find 2 decent midfield rotations from all the above - all the role players have to do is be good enough to stick their tackles and be aware enough to get the ball to any of: Williams/Walsh/Martin/Murphy and Williamson if Teague is smart enough to actually play him on a wing. The rest will look after itself as long as Levi and harry learn to spread away from each other.

 

[Macca43]

What if the young kids improve as we're hoping but the 'foot soldiers' (**** I'm sick of that term now) continue to perform and actually improve themselves, holding out the kids? Newman's back to his 20+, Newnes gets a less defensive role out on the wing guarding space and gets back up to 20 too, Gibbons cleans up a bit of his delivery a touch and kicks a couple extra goals, Levi keeps away from the other forwards when they've got the sit on an incoming ball, etc.

If anything, that's giving us more of a chance than your scenario, which is more or less condensing the kids:'foot soldiers' ratio and our finals chances down to a simple correlation=causation example...

Again as I have said before, IMO, the foot soldiers played 2020 very close to their ceiling, I don't see them providing the improvement necessary.

But that doesn't mean all foot soldiers will be replaced but the more we can replace the better our team will be because the replacements will be playing at a high level.

 

[Macca43]

Not sure what you did, but you put your reply in a quote.

I'd separate those 2 points entirely:
1. It would be utterly amazing for us if 2-3 of our young players stood up and played 22 games based on form. Pick 3 names from Dow, LOB, Stocker, Philp, even put Cuningham here too.
2. I see enough improvement for us as a team, whether or not those 2-3 young players stand up for us to be a finals side.

It's just too hard to quantify to say something like if the young players step up we win 15 games, but if they don't and we have to "rely" on foot soldiers then we only win 12 games.

I put my reply in a quote because it was a quote, from an answer from an almost identical question.

Lets say just 1 of Dow, LOB, Stocker, Kemp & Philp stood up
Now lets say 2 of JSOS, Fogarty, Marchbank, Cuningham and Newman stand up
Now lets say we get 1 surprise out of Cottrell, Ramsay, Honey, Durdin or Carroll

Spots get hard to come by pretty quick.

But I am not trying to convince you, if you see enough improvement thats fine, I am just explaining/defending my opinion.

 

[Macca43]

A new interaction and doesn't take long for the personal attacks.

This is the first time you have been clear on all the factors, yet you are now questioning yourself, but target others.

"If I am right, result A, if wrong result B"

But you want to argue with others if it's result B

FML haha

I will just save all this for end of year lol

Seems you lack the requirements for understanding.

But you don't have to understand or accept my opinion, just accept I am entitled to it.

 

[Earls Smother]

Based on last year:

Carlton defeated Geelong ( GFists) / lost to Port after the siren (prelim finalists) / and smashed the Bulldogs ( finalists)

The biggest defeats for the year were 4 goal losses to Richmond in game 1, Collingwood where Stephenson had an extraordinary game (because we played with no wingmen) and Brisbane in the who cares last game - which included 3 Joe the goose goals from 55 meters out - 2 from an unmarked Ritchie

in terms of around the same finishes in '20 : Carlton lost to GWS, beat Fremantle and lost a very close game against Melbourne - coming back from a 7 goal deficit...

The season was bad because the team struggled to put away or lost to teams that should have been beaten : Hawthorn | Adelaide were awful losses whilst Norfs/Sydney were close wins but should have been bigger.

Carlton comprehensively smashed GCS in a game that showed what the team could do repeating the Geelong effort sans the 5 goal gimmes to them when Teague lost the plot - again.

My viewing showed that only Richmond and St Kilda comfortably outplayed Carlton in their respective encounters

Lots of reasons to be more positive about '21 - my main reason being that Teague must have learned a lot.

I think that WC/Brisbane will have a harder time of it in '21 as will Port if there is no repeat of hub play- if nothing else more travel will impact negatively.
I think Collingwood could easily fall back a few places if not more
St Kilda should improve
and I think age may start to catch up with WC and whilst cameron on paper shoudl be a huge lift for Geelong - GAblett is an equaly big out for them as he was their best link player last year.
Bulldogs I have no view on.
and Richmond will continue to play their game and keep pretenders who cant match their run at bay - for as long as Dustin Martin is there to score late in quarters when the opposition has had their legs run off them.

every side improves every year - but Norfs/Essendon have clearly gone backwards as far as list goes.

Port /St Kilda and Carlton have added to their on field capability.

Up our sleeve (potentially) is Charlie - add a 3/4 fit Charlie back to forward line and the whole equation will change - dramaticaly in our favour against anyone - same for Marchbank/Newman/SOJ who are quality.

I'm expecting no significant improvement from Dow/LoB /Cuningham or Stocker - and will probably be surprised positively.

We have Fogarty/Philp both first rounders developing - and Cottrell/Honey who I think will play sometime in '21 -- up our sleeves for surprises.

I can write a realy bearish case - but the potential for finals is more realistic - a bad run of injury AND/OR a lack of game plan development could see us miss out.

Doesn't really matter who we think will be starting 22 - all Teague has to do is find 2 decent midfield rotations from all the above - all the role players have to do is be good enough to stick their tackles and be aware enough to get the ball to any of: Williams/Walsh/Martin/Murphy and Williamson if Teague is smart enough to actually play him on a wing. The rest will look after itself as long as Levi and harry learn to spread away from each other.

Good stuff.

The other factor that we don't know about yet is crowds. If only home members are allowed in early in the year, it makes away games against sides like Richmond really tough. The more people allowed in - the better it is for us. Our crowd numbers grew the most I think in 2019, and watch out if we actually start a season well.

I was at the North game at the Gabba and we outnumbered them 9 to 1. It was definitely a factor in the last quarter slog. Potentially the younger, developing sides missed the crowds more than the battle-hardened more experienced teams?

 

[JustaBattler]

Good stuff.

The other factor that we don't know about yet is crowds. If only home members are allowed in early in the year, it makes away games against sides like Richmond really tough. The more people allowed in - the better it is for us. Our crowd numbers grew the most I think in 2019, and watch out if we actually start a season well.

I was at the North game at the Gabba and we outnumbered them 9 to 1. It was definitely a factor in the last quarter slog.

Crowd factor will be an awesome addition for us looking forward - no doubt.

 

[Arr0w]

Seems you lack the requirements for understanding.

But you don't have to understand or accept my opinion, just accept I am entitled to it.

Haha

Another attempt, I understand very well

You can have the last say Macca, I can't stop laughing

 

[Macca43]

Haha

Another attempt, I understand very well

You can have the last say Macca, I can't stop laughing

 

[spry]

At least 4 times in this thread alone

Doth thou squint at the sun?

 

[CJMB]

Again as I have said before, IMO, the foot soldiers played 2020 very close to their ceiling, I don't see them providing the improvement necessary.

But that doesn't mean all foot soldiers will be replaced but the more we can replace the better our team will be because the replacements will be playing at a high level.

Gibbo and Newnes are hardly 30+ and about to retire, how do you know they’ve definitively reached their ceiling?

And how do you know the kids will definitively reach a higher level?

Just play the best 22; kids, mid tier, senior players, whoever it is.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Which of our players were averaging 22 possessions (10 contested) 8 tackles, 4 clearances and 4.5 Score Involvements (Steele’s 2019 stats) this year did you have in mind?

You know how you were using hyperbole with Arrow? I just used ONE example of a breakout player who was AA to illustrate a point. Just as you responded when Arrow didn’t acknowledge you hyperbole to make a point, I would hope you could make a similar intellectual leap. An accurate example of a first time AA player. Anyone one of our players could make an analogous leap and it’s more likely to be a 5 to 8 year player. They know the system and are hardened. Bailey Smith/Sam Walsh types are outliers given the percentage of players who enter the system.

 

[BigBreakfast]

I'd agree with all of those but the sides above us have various forms of most of them as well which cancels them out - 7 is the key for me as it is the area we have the biggest potential and have an advantage over our competition.

This is the only place where 7 is not greater than 4

 

[Earls Smother]

I can agree with this. Teague, the game plan, and the player buy in, also, is something worth mentioning.

Question: Is Kamdyn McIntosh any better than Newnes? Secondly, does Patrick Naish have more potential than Kamdyn? Is this any different to Newnes vs O'Brien? Gibbons vs Stocker?

Actually he is. Remember McIntosh running away from Judd in his first game? McIntosh is very quick for a bloke of his size. Elite asset.

The same goes for the comparison between Gibbons and Liam Baker made a couple of days ago (can't remember who it was, but likened them as they were both rookie drafted?). Baker is very quick too, great ball handler and a very good kick, albeit without heaps of penetration. Again, elite assets.

We need to be careful with thinking Richmond are Dusty plus a bunch of role players to make ourselves feel better (not having a go at you, but have seen it a bit lately). The reason we are where we are, is because we need more blokes with elite assets injected into the team to replace guys who are just honest goers.

 

[Ash24]

Gibbo and Newnes are hardly 30+ and about to retire, how do you know they’ve definitively reached their ceiling?

And how do you know the kids will definitively reach a higher level?

Just play the best 22; kids, mid tier, senior players, whoever it is.

Let's not forget, Gibbo was a 2nd year player in 2020. He has played 36 games and already improved upon 2019.

Whether he is in the b22 or not (I think he is), him and Newnes being pushed out of the side because others have improved, is only a positive.

 

[thylacine60]

Let's not forget, Gibbo was a 2nd year player in 2020. He has played 36 games and already improved upon 2019.

Whether he is in the b22 or not (I think he is), him and Newnes being pushed out of the side because others have improved, is only a positive.

you talk s**t

 

[Macca43]

Gibbo and Newnes are hardly 30+ and about to retire, how do you know they’ve definitively reached their ceiling?

And how do you know the kids will definitively reach a higher level?

Just play the best 22; kids, mid tier, senior players, whoever

Gibbo and Newnes are hardly 30+ and about to retire, how do you know they’ve definitively reached their ceiling?

And how do you know the kids will definitively reach a higher level?

Just play the best 22; kids, mid tier, senior players, whoever it is.

When did my opinion become definitive? It is an opinion, agree with it or not, I am simply explaining why I hold it.

 

[Macca43]

You know how you were using hyperbole with Arrow? I just used ONE example of a breakout player who was AA to illustrate a point. Just as you responded when Arrow didn’t acknowledge you hyperbole to make a point, I would hope you could make a similar intellectual leap. An accurate example of a first time AA player. Anyone one of our players could make an analogous leap and it’s more likely to be a 5 to 8 year player. They know the system and are hardened. Bailey Smith/Sam Walsh types are outliers given the percentage of players who enter the system.

My point was simply if you had been observing Steele for a while his leap was not that surprising. To me Setterfield is the most likely to replicate it.

Also, if we manage to get a player doing a Steele, hopefully we get a Coffield, Clark, Battle and Gresham as well.

 

[Arr0w]

Actually he is. Remember McIntosh running away from Judd in his first game? McIntosh is very quick for a bloke of his size. Elite asset.

The same goes for the comparison between Gibbons and Liam Baker made a couple of days ago (can't remember who it was, but likened them as they were both rookie drafted?). Baker is very quick too, great ball handler and a very good kick, albeit without heaps of penetration. Again, elite assets.

We need to be careful with thinking Richmond are Dusty plus a bunch of role players to make ourselves feel better (not having a go at you, but have seen it a bit lately). The reason we are where we are, is because we need more blokes with elite assets injected into the team to replace guys who are just honest goers.

I disagree. Tigers were in no mans land for a long time before the majority of their players hit the critical age/experience bracket. Even forgetting the Tigers, there are 7 other spots up for grabs

 

[BigBreakfast]

My point was simply if you had been observing Steele for a while his leap was not that surprising. To me Setterfield is the most likely to replicate it.

Also, if we manage to get a player doing a Steele, hopefully we get a Coffield, Clark, Battle and Gresham as well.

My point exactly. Someone who had been around for a while took a leap to the next level. That is likely to come from the 24 + age group, not a young kid bursting through to that level. If one does come on, that’s great. We have been riding these kids for a while now, I’d love a couple to come on. It’s my opinion, based on league wide evidence including premierships at Geelong and Richmond where they aged together. That’s more like what our kids will do in a couple of years time while older bodies carry us into the finals in the short term.

We are going in circles now, I’m done.