Prediction Our Chances in the 2019 finals

Werewolf

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I went to the Crows-Bombers game. It reminded me of too many of our games with the Crows missing goals and Essendon eventually made them pay. Aside from that, Crows obviously not impressive at all as they lack pace and fitness and we should beat them - although what's the bet Pyke resigns just before R23 to mess with us? Essendon were much faster, but we've had their measure ever since Bevo took over. Should defeat both!
I was right about something! BTW we were 15th after round 14; fantastic effort to climb 8 positions and over 17% in only 9 games!
 

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Kennel Master

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That is the important one for me, winning week one.
Just the experience of playing finals for the first time will benefit the younger group but actually winning one and then getting a large final in week 2 in front of a huge crowd will get juices flowing for next year.
I'm a bit of a realist about our ultimate chances this year but whilst we are still in it, we're not out of it


Quote of the year!!

KM
 

Chicago1

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I just can't believe that we made it. It feels great living here in Melbourne at Finals time for the first time in 20 years. Finals, baby, I missed you! Of course, being here in 2016 for a week was great, but I only arrived on the Wed before the GF. I had to pack a month of excitement into a few days, but it was worth it! :p
 

stefoid

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2016 vs 2019 a throwaway comparison.

Ill do defence! trying to match up roles.

DEFENCE
wood, JJ, morris, boyd, hamling, roberts,
vs.
wood, JJ, crozier, duryea, cordy, young/trengrove

verdict:

JJ is back in form SAME

Wood is showing signs of having dusted off his superman cape. SAME

duryea playing a similar role to boyd. Not anywhere as prolific, but Id give him the nod for disposal SLIGHT DOWNGRADE

crozier has no close rolemodel. Im going to compare him to morris as a 'versatile medium defender'. Verdict is Morris much stronger at ground level but Crozier better disposal and aerialist. SLIGHT UPGRADE

this is where it gets interesting in the KPD stakes

Cordy and Young/Trengrove vs Roberts and Hamling

History tells us that Hamling performed admirably, and I dont see any of our KPD options matching that. Young obviously the perfect comparison, but has played 2 games this year and is about 20-30 senior games behind hamling you would think. DOWNGRADE

Which leaves us with Cordy/Trenners vs roberts, with Cordy probably being the one who will play. This is tough, Roberts did his job of 'the golden fist'. He did the job that was required. I feel that Trengrove would do the same, and possibly do a slightly better job than roberts, as he seems a little more mobile. However, we may be going with Cordy who I find it hard to get a read on. yes, he loses more 1:1s than we would like but he works hard to get to them, and I assume bev values his input as a part of the defensive team more than a specialist roleplayer. Im going to go with SAME on the basis that none of these guys is brilliant in their position, but they are solid battlers.

Overall verdict, I feel like this is a less defensively adept backline that offers more rebound potential.
 
Last edited:

bobs head soup

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Just thought I'd update this to emphasise our form in the back half of the season. It's the AFL ladder based on games played since Rd 11:

View attachment 733720

Highest scoring team. Second best percentage. Third best overall, despite playing three games interstate.

The form side of the AFL.
Wow. At R11 we had just kicked 10 goals against WCE with Gardner and Gowers as the deep forwards, failing to kick 100 for the 9 th week in a row.

If somebody had've predicted then that we'd be the top scoring team in the comp over the back half of the year, they would've been dismissed as dilusional. Some turnaround, great performance by all involved.
 

Braybrook Son

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Best scenario we could hope for, is us winning obviously, and Lions beating Richmond, then second week, we play Richmond at the G and if we keep winning, we don’t leave the G. So if the Lions win their first final, we keep winning, we have 3 MCG finals 😍. Prelim will be against Geelong or Pies! How good would it be to play Geelong in the grand final and beat them? The ultimate revenge for losing all those finals against them in my lifetime!
 

timtamWB

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2016 vs 2019 a throwaway comparison.

Ill do defence! trying to match up roles.

DEFENCE
wood, JJ, morris, boyd, hamling, roberts,
vs.
wood, JJ, crozier, duryea, cordy, young/trengrove

verdict:

JJ is back in form SAME

Wood is showing signs of having dusted off his superman cape. SAME

duryea playing a similar role to boyd. Not anywhere as prolific, but Id give him the nod for disposal SLIGHT DOWNGRADE

crozier has no close rolemodel. Im going to compare him to morris as a 'versatile medium defender'. Verdict is Morris much stronger at ground level but Crozier better disposal and aerialist. SLIGHT UPGRADE

this is where it gets interesting in the KPD stakes

Cordy and Young/Trengrove vs Roberts and Hamling

History tells us that Hamling performed admirably, and I dont see any of our KPD options matching that. Young obviously the perfect comparison, but has played 2 games this year and is about 20-30 senior games behind hamling you would think. DOWNGRADE

Which leaves us with Cordy/Trenners vs roberts, with Cordy probably being the one who will play. This is tough, Roberts did his job of 'the golden fist'. He did the job that was required. I feel that Trengrove would do the same, and possibly do a slightly better job than roberts, as he seems a little more mobile. However, we may be going with Cordy who I find it hard to get a read on. yes, he loses more 1:1s than we would like but he works hard to get to them, and I assume bev values his input as a part of the defensive team more than a specialist roleplayer. Im going to go with SAME on the basis that none of these guys is brilliant in their position, but they are solid battlers.

Overall verdict, I feel like this is a less defensively adept backline that offers more rebound potential.
Cordy in his current form same as finals Roberts? Crozier slight upgrade from Morris? Boyd 2016 not having good disposal? JJ is not near the form he was in 2016, and one or two good (and that's good not great) games from Wood does not make him anywhere near 2016 Wood.

I'm all for comparisons but this one is completely off base.
 

mattwa

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That 2016 backline is immense it smashed the 2019 one. Wood in 16 is 3 times the player he is now...

Our 2019 midfield is far far better than in 2016

Our forward line on paper is better in 16 than 19 but our game plan is more offensive.

Let not underrate how good that 16 side was we were immense that year.

Our 19 side has potential to be greater as it has more potential in future years and could be the best team we have had if player progress like we think they will
 

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Virgin Dog

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2016 vs 2019 a throwaway comparison.

Ill do defence! trying to match up roles.

DEFENCE
wood, JJ, morris, boyd, hamling, roberts,
vs.
wood, JJ, crozier, duryea, cordy, young/trengrove

verdict:

JJ is back in form SAME

Wood is showing signs of having dusted off his superman cape. SAME

duryea playing a similar role to boyd. Not anywhere as prolific, but Id give him the nod for disposal SLIGHT DOWNGRADE

crozier has no close rolemodel. Im going to compare him to morris as a 'versatile medium defender'. Verdict is Morris much stronger at ground level but Crozier better disposal and aerialist. SLIGHT UPGRADE

this is where it gets interesting in the KPD stakes

Cordy and Young/Trengrove vs Roberts and Hamling

History tells us that Hamling performed admirably, and I dont see any of our KPD options matching that. Young obviously the perfect comparison, but has played 2 games this year and is about 20-30 senior games behind hamling you would think. DOWNGRADE

Which leaves us with Cordy/Trenners vs roberts, with Cordy probably being the one who will play. This is tough, Roberts did his job of 'the golden fist'. He did the job that was required. I feel that Trengrove would do the same, and possibly do a slightly better job than roberts, as he seems a little more mobile. However, we may be going with Cordy who I find it hard to get a read on. yes, he loses more 1:1s than we would like but he works hard to get to them, and I assume bev values his input as a part of the defensive team more than a specialist roleplayer. Im going to go with SAME on the basis that none of these guys is brilliant in their position, but they are solid battlers.

Overall verdict, I feel like this is a less defensively adept backline that offers more rebound potential.
Going to give the forward line a go:

FORWARD
Josh Dunkley - Zaine Cordy - Jake Stringer
Tory Dickson - Tom Boyd - Clay Smith
vs.
Bailey Dale - Josh Schache - Sam Lloyd
Tory Dickson - Aaron Naughton - Toby McLean

verdict:

Tory looks right back at his best lately, so this is a par
SAME

Comparing Dunkley with Dale, this is a huge upgrade. We now have a leading forward who is decent at ground level and overhead. Capacity to kick a bag (his 5 this weekend could have been 7 if he didn't uncharacteristically shank a couple)
HUGE UPGRADE

Schache vs Cordy is an upgrade. We don't have that mongrel attack on the ball and defensive work from Cordy, but we do have a mobile tall who helps link up the play between the defense and forward line, as well as being a beautiful shot on goal. Bigger capacity to score
SLIGHT UPGRADE

Boyd vs Naughton is a break even. Boyd very nearly won the Norm Smith and was absolutely outstanding rotating being forward and ruck. Naughton is a contested marking beast, does well enough in the ruck, and I'm sure I recently read somewhere that he's 4th in the competition this year for successful leads inside 50. Has capacity to move down back if required. I'll call it even
SAME

Jake Stringer vs Sam Lloyd is a downgrade unfortunately. They are very different players, but what Lloyd gains in reliability, he loses in X-factor. Does not seem to have capacity to produce large scores, and has been a bit off over the last month or so, but he does provide some much needed experience and leadership up forward. Have to give this one a negative
DOWNGRADE

Toby McLean vs Clay Smith is a marginal downgrade. Lose a bit of mongrel, but gain footy smarts and clean disposal. No knock on Toby, but I'd take Smith up forward any day of the week if I had the choice.
SLIGHT DOWNGRADE



Tory Dickson and Aaron Naughton are break evens for this group. Josh Schache (vs Cordy) and Toby McLean (vs Clay Smith) cancel each other out, leaving Bailey Dale (vs Dunkley) to more than make up the difference of Lloyd (vs Stringer).

I think overall we end up with a forward line that seems to have a little less mongrel, but a much bigger scoring capacity and better usage around the ground.
 

mattwa

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Going to give the forward line a go:

FORWARD
Josh Dunkley - Zaine Cordy - Jake Stringer
Tory Dickson - Tom Boyd - Clay Smith
vs.
Bailey Dale - Josh Schache - Sam Lloyd
Tory Dickson - Aaron Naughton - Toby McLean

verdict:

Tory looks right back at his best lately, so this is a par
SAME

Comparing Dunkley with Dale, this is a huge upgrade. We now have a leading forward who is decent at ground level and overhead. Capacity to kick a bag (his 5 this weekend could have been 7 if he didn't uncharacteristically shank a couple)
HUGE UPGRADE


Schache vs Cordy is an upgrade. We don't have that mongrel attack on the ball and defensive work from Cordy, but we do have a mobile tall who helps link up the play between the defense and forward line, as well as being a beautiful shot on goal. Bigger capacity to score
SLIGHT UPGRADE


Boyd vs Naughton is a break even. Boyd very nearly won the Norm Smith and was absolutely outstanding rotating being forward and ruck. Naughton is a contested marking beast, does well enough in the ruck, and I'm sure I recently read somewhere that he's 4th in the competition this year for successful leads inside 50. Has capacity to move down back if required. I'll call it even
SAME


Jake Stringer vs Sam Lloyd is a downgrade unfortunately. They are very different players, but what Lloyd gains in reliability, he loses in X-factor. Does not seem to have capacity to produce large scores, and has been a bit off over the last month or so, but he does provide some much needed experience and leadership up forward. Have to give this one a negative
DOWNGRADE


Toby McLean vs Clay Smith is a marginal downgrade. Lose a bit of mongrel, but gain footy smarts and clean disposal. No knock on Toby, but I'd take Smith up forward any day of the week if I had the choice.
SLIGHT DOWNGRADE




Tory Dickson and Aaron Naughton are break evens for this group. Josh Schache (vs Cordy) and Toby McLean (vs Clay Smith) cancel each other out, leaving Bailey Dale (vs Dunkley) to more than make up the difference of Lloyd (vs Stringer).

I think overall we end up with a forward line that seems to have a little less mongrel, but a much bigger scoring capacity and better usage around the ground.
Actually scrap my reply I am taking the 19 forward line over this one after reading this. Stringer was rubbish this final series and he was my reason for grading it higher (still have 2015 Stringer when i try to rate him)
 

Outback Footy

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Im hoping to take a bunch of northerners to the game and need to be able to give them an idea on costs
Anyone have any idea of the difference between cat 3 and cat 4 views at spotless?
Also what is a concession holder? School student? Uni student?
And whas a junior? u12 or 14?
I think the family ticket is 2 adults 2 juniors, is that right?

Sorry for all the q's, I dont get to the footy nearly enough
 

Bont2Boyd

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Im hoping to take a bunch of northerners to the game and need to be able to give them an idea on costs
Anyone have any idea of the difference between cat 3 and cat 4 views at spotless?
Also what is a concession holder? School student? Uni student?
And whas a junior? u12 or 14?
I think the family ticket is 2 adults 2 juniors, is that right?

Sorry for all the q's, I dont get to the footy nearly enough
Take a look in the other thread with "Resource" in the subject line, some of the answers to your questions are in there.
 

MYOB

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Im hoping to take a bunch of northerners to the game and need to be able to give them an idea on costs
Anyone have any idea of the difference between cat 3 and cat 4 views at spotless?
Also what is a concession holder? School student? Uni student?
And whas a junior? u12 or 14?
I think the family ticket is 2 adults 2 juniors, is that right?

Sorry for all the q's, I dont get to the footy nearly enough
This is the seating plan

Junior is 4 to 14
Concession - pensioners, veteran affairs, full time secondary or tertiary students and Healthcare card holders
 

Chillzy

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I'm not sure comparing players is helpful from 2016 to 2019. It hasn't been individual brilliance that helped us finish the season so well. Each player seems to understand their role so well and how they fit with each other that we have played the best team football of any team.
If we continue this I would back 2019 team over 2016 but not due to the individuals available.
 

bobs head soup

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Was just having a little recollection of the bad old days. I started following the Dogs as a youngster in the late 70s and well remember how precious and long awaited finals appearances were.

In the 30 seasons from 1962-1991 we made finals 3 times (once a decade on average) and won a single final.

In the 28 seasons since (1992-2019) we've made finals 14 times, a 50% strike rate, better than league average over an extended period.

Worth contemplating because I reckon we carry a bit of baggage as perceived underdogs and undeperformers who are rarely competitive, but we are really not that club anymore.
 

stefoid

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Cordy in his current form same as finals Roberts? Crozier slight upgrade from Morris? Boyd 2016 not having good disposal? JJ is not near the form he was in 2016, and one or two good (and that's good not great) games from Wood does not make him anywhere near 2016 Wood.

I'm all for comparisons but this one is completely off base.
Didnt say boyd had 'not good' disposal, I said I give the nod to duryea, and that duryea is a downgrade.

yep, I reckon Crozier is at the peak of his career right now. thats not a slight on morris - he is the best negating defender around, but crozier offers more overall. Id play them both if I had the option.

Realistically, on a role-for-role basis, Cordy and Morris play the same role, and Cordy is a big downgrade there. ITS AN ART NOT A SCIENCE
 

stefoid

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I'm not sure comparing players is helpful from 2016 to 2019. It hasn't been individual brilliance that helped us finish the season so well. Each player seems to understand their role so well and how they fit with each other that we have played the best team football of any team.
If we continue this I would back 2019 team over 2016 but not due to the individuals available.
thats very sensible.

Like a knitted vest.
 

Libba39

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Whilst I don't want to read too much into this, can anyone tell me if a team has ever lost to the wooden spooners during the season and then gone on to win the flag?
 

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