Prediction Our Chances to play finals

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bobs head soup

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Shout out to our S&C staff who have copped a lot on this board. They have really got our young team peaking at the right time of year. Hopefully we make it and cause some havoc in the finals.
Posted similar last week. 9 players have played every game this year and a couple of others only missed through form. That kind of consistency makes a big difference so big tick for the S&C and medicos.
 

Braybrook Son

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The Pies have found a bit of form, I'm hoping we can make your road a little easier by knocking Adelaide off the chase. (And the Bombers for that matter). I'm concerned that the Crows will play their hearts out against us and sneak a win, and the Pies will ease off knowing they are locked outside the 4. The way we've been playing, I have no idea which group of Magpies will be on the ground... the world-beaters or the VFL look-alikes.

It really comes down to Port doesn't it? They have North and Freo, both of whom will be playing for pride at that point, and I'm not sure the Dogs can get the percentage to catch them assuming both win out. You at least control your own destiny with regards to the Crows, but you guys are going to have a lot of nervous channel-changing these next few weeks. GWS is going to be tough as well.

Right now I'd say your chances are 40-60... but I hope you prove me wrong!
You’ve beaten the bottom two teams last two weeks, I would hardly call that form, also struggled against the Dees and fell in at the end. I think you guys are in trouble this week, but hope you can do us a favor!
 

flamethrower

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We were reportedly offered to play our last game Saturday night at marvel and turned it down to honour our commitment to Ballarat
Not just that, but it would have cost us a significant amount of money to break the Ballarat contract at such a late date.

Depending on other results, we could win our last 2 games by 100 points and still miss out OR we could lose to GWS and beat the Crows by 1 point and finish 8th. So many permutations...

If the former happens - 3 straight massive wins over top 8 teams, only to miss the finals, it could be the catalyst the AFL has been waiting for to introduce a Wild Card weekend next season.
 

Dogs_r_barking

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We were reportedly offered to play our last game Saturday night at marvel and turned it down to honour our commitment to Ballarat
Crows play well at Marvel, they have never played at Mars, could be an advantage. Also easier on the legs than Marvel in the unlikely event of us making finals.
 

hutchy31

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Sandilands playing his farewell game in Perth against the Bombers. Every little bit helps.
Freo will beat the bombers I think - they should’ve beaten the saints easily and they were in much better form than Essendon. Stringer an out this week I heard plus their already long injury list, Heppell isn’t fit etc.

They’ll then capitulate against Port away but that’s fine, they’ll have done their job by then.
 

Astro_

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Essendon's best chance is that Collingwood lets them win in the last week as some sort of hope that they'll get to play them week 1 of finals. conceivable. Essendon are pathetic. i would love to play them
After betting scandles / rumours there is no way that Collingwood put in performance that questions their will to win a game
 

bobs head soup

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Crows play well at Marvel, they have never played at Mars, could be an advantage. Also easier on the legs than Marvel in the unlikely event of us making finals.
Good points. The last time we played at Mars we beat Brisbane, currently 2nd, so our biggest scalp of the year. No reason why we shouldn't relish getting back there
 

Finn Jim

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You’ve beaten the bottom two teams last two weeks, I would hardly call that form, also struggled against the Dees and fell in at the end. I think you guys are in trouble this week, but hope you can do us a favor!
after two rubbish games against Richmond and GWS, I need all the optimism I can get. I'm really worried about this week for us, but you guys are Pies fans this week too.
 

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gimp!

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In an ideal world both Adelaide and Bombers lose but we can't expect that to happen.

I think we're a better chance of taking the Dons spot than the Crows.
That means we will finish 9th and Essendon 10th, because Port will probably finish above all 3 of us.
 

go the dogs

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If we win both games crows game don't matter this week. We just need port or essendon to lose 1.

If we lose this week and beat Adelaide we need Crows to lose this week Essendon to lose both and Hawks to lose to Eagles last game and we still make it.
 

lachy

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Pretty simple really, win both we are an excellent chance, win 1 it is highly unlikely win none its all over.

A lot of similarities to 2005 in the way we are finishing the year after looking bottom 6 at best in the mid way mark
 

go you pups

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Funny how the last few times I've posted in here were after the Pies and Saints losses IIRC, saying we're no chance, yet here we are with some chance still...

We've never won a round 23 game under Bevo.
Yep

Bruise free footy in 2015-16, pretty much knowing where we were going to finish

2017 we needed a heap of results to go our way to make the 8, we buckled anyway under weight of expectation

Unlucky against Richmond last year, hit the post a fair few times in the second half
We've been in this position a few times over the years, where we needed to win our final two games to play finals. 2001, 2005 and 2017. Hopefully it's fourth time lucky.
2001 was similar to 2017 with the way it played out results wise, just 2017 we had the enormous weight of expectation of backing 2016 up, we had a positive win loss ratio both years coming into August/early August then pi**ed it away the last few weeks

2005 we were all but gone after round 16 and were just a mathematical shot at making it

Round 17 was truly an eye opener, despatching Geelong the way we did then went on that run right up until we were 4 goals up against Melbourne halfway through the last quarter then threw it away, dodgy Jeff White free and all.

This year is somewhat unique, we've played dominant footy for patches, be it during games or for 2-3 games in a row, then suffered some really stupid losses when building momentum, be it not turning up for games when we were favourites like against Gold Coast, Carlton first up and St Kilda, or playing ineffectively, thus shooting ourselves in the foot, be it overpossessing the footy and failing to find targets inside 50 or not kicking accurately, like against Freo first up and Collingwood second up.
Was 2005 the Jeff White free kick
Yep :(

We were playing some inspired stuff then too, sure was a breath of fresh air after the mediocre way Wallace bowed out then the Rohde years.

Minson and Skipper combining well in the ruck, Johnno dominating up forward, Turtle turning back the clock at both ends, Lakey and Gilbee having breakout seasons down back, Eagleton finally showing some end product, Coons also showing glimpses, Westy and Crossy doing hard yakka in the guts. Just a great mix of breakout youth and veterans/senior players playing good footy.

Was an enjoyable fairytale ride that came to a somewhat devastating early end, but we did carry that momentum on into 2006 though, crushed Richmond round 1 by 115 points, beating a dominant West Coast side at Subi, beating the Pies in that elimination final probably the highlights of that year. Got found out in 2007 though.
Are you sure about that? Had Adelaide beaten Geelong in 2015, we would have fallen to 7th and surrendered a home final. Similarly in 2016, our match started at HT of the Collingwood v Hawthorn match. We were 11 points down at HT. Collingwood and Hawthorn went down to the wire, with the Hawks winning by one point. Granted, as the final siren sounded at the MCG, our position of 7th was locked in, but how do you explain being 11 points behind at HT?
That Geelong Adelaide game in 2015 was on at the same time as our Brisbane game

We surely had an eye on it

2016 we played the last Sunday timeslot and couldn't do anything about it
There is a very real chance that playing our last home game in Ballarat could cost us a finals spot. I hope like hell it doesn’t but this is how important these financial decisions the club make can have on our performance.
Nah

Gold Coast
Carlton (1st time)
Freo (1st time)
North
Collingwood (2nd time)
St Kilda

When we can't win games when either favourites and not turning up for games, or shooting ourselves in the foot due to playing a bad overpossessing ineffective brand, then we can't go on and say playing this game in Ballarat will cost us.

We won our last game there against a side who's in the top 4, nothing wrong with playing there, Hawks have shown over the years having a home away from home can be beneficial, it's just a fan inconvenience that these games can be hard to get to.
Shout out to our S&C staff who have copped a lot on this board. They have really got our young team peaking at the right time of year. Hopefully we make it and cause some havoc in the finals.
Does cutting injury prone types like Roughy and Redpath off the list help in that regard too though? We were due a good run after 3 years of garbage on that front.
In an ideal world both Adelaide and Bombers lose but we can't expect that to happen.

I think we're a better chance of taking the Dons spot than the Crows.
Think you corrected yourself above, but Port is the main problem, not Adelaide, we can control our destiny against Adelaide should we win out from here.

Who knows with Essendon, will they respond or has Worsfold lost the players? Can't trust Freo will rock up either considering their destiny was still in their hands on Sunday also, yet threw it away too.
 

Bodicifer

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Beating GWS is going to be extremely tough so if I were a betting man I'd have us at about $5 to make the 8. GWS get some good players back this week and will be seething after their pathetic effort last week. Unless we are really on our game we won't be making the finals. This week is our elimination final. And let's face it, if we don't beat them then we won't do much damage in September.
 

Dogs Rule

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Beating GWS is going to be extremely tough so if I were a betting man I'd have us at about $5 to make the 8. GWS get some good players back this week and will be seething after their pathetic effort last week. Unless we are really on our game we won't be making the finals. This week is our elimination final. And let's face it, if we don't beat them then we won't do much damage in September.
I think it's great we need to win both games to make it.

The goal is clear, we know what we need to do, just got to do it now.
 
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