Opinion Our Current Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Me Wrong

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Bob Neil said:
Here's the premiers from the last 10 years and players on their list that were good or above players and 1st round draft picks at that club (i.e. not traded in). I reckon there's only one flag (Sydney 2012) that goes towards disproving my theory that you need to have a solid core (5+) high draft picks that you've developed and who are big contributors if you're going to win a flag. For us to win a flag *from this rebuild* (i.e. within the next 5 years - pretty generous) it's hard to see given our prior drafting where those core of top draft picks will come from.

Of course it can't be proven either way yet and I'd love to be wrong but I fear that despite the good works we're clearly starting to do now that our recent drafting will see us fall short. Please demonstrate where my assessment is wrong - do you not need the top draft picks or do we have them on our books now but they're just taking time...

Richmond (2017/18 & 2020): Cotchin (#2), Martin (#3), Vlastuin (#9), Reiwoldt (#13), Ellis (#15), Rioli (#15), Rance (#18)

West Coast (2019): Naitanui (#2), Masten (#3), Gaff (#4), Sheppard (#7), Sheed (#11), Duggan (#11), Hurn (#13), Shuey (#18)

Western Bulldogs (2016): Bontempelli (#4), Stringer (#5), Macrae (#6), Murphy (#13)

Hawthorn (2013/14/15): Hodge (#1), Roughead (#2), Franklin (#4), Lewis (#7), Rioli (#12), Birchall (#14),

Sydney (2012): McVeigh (#5), Bolton (#8), Jetta (#14)

Geelong (2011): Selwood (#7), Mackie (#7), Bartel (#8), Corey (#8), Varcoe (#15), Taylor (#17), Kelly (#17)
Click to expand...

Most of these sides also drafted some absolute duds during their rebuild as well with very good picks

Richmond: Tambling (#4), Conca (#6), Oakley-Nicholls (#8), Vickery (#8), Griffiths (#19)

Hawthorn: Ellis (#3 although a premiership player he sucked), Dowler (#6), Thorp (#6), Brennan (#8), Murphy (#21)

Geelong: Tenace (#7), Jason Mooney (traded for #8), Murphy (traded for #11), Spriggs (#15), Bray (#17), Street (#17)
 
I don't see Doedee as a superstar. A very good player yes and maybe an AA one day but superstars are reserved for really special players. Hopefully RT becomes this.

40porpoise said:
I understand what you’re saying.

At this stage IMO the only young player that has multiple AA and superstar potential is Thilthorpe and Doedee.

Berry Pedlar and Scholl could become those players, but id say it’s more likely they’ll become solid to good players with a limited ceiling.

We really need a nucleus equivalent to Buddy, Roughead,Burgoyne, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli or Dusty, Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt, Lynch etc.
Click to expand...



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Absolutely no guarantee it will succeed. Some teams have struggled for many years. We had plenty of chances over the 2002-2017 period.
 

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Our last five years of first round draft picks written down makes for very bleak reading :(
 
Comparing to the last rebuild aka renovation aka rejuvenation etc

Contenders in 2005-06
Falling off from 2007
False dawn in 2012
Contenders 2016-17

So it was about 10 years from the end of one period as contenders, to the start of the next.

Key players of 2016-17:

Taylor Walker | NSW scholarship in 2007 | key player from 2012
Rory Sloane | Pick 44 in 2008 | key player from 2012
Daniel Talia | pick 13 in 2009 | key player from 2012
Sam Jacobs | traded in 2010 | key player from 2011
Brodie Smith | pick 14 in 2010 | key player from 2012
Brad Crouch | mini draft in 2011 | key player from 2016 (would have been earlier but for injuries)
Rory Laird | rookie pick 5 in 2011 | key player from 2015
Tom Lynch | trade in 2011 | key player from 2015
Eddie Betts| free agent in 2013 | key player from 2014
Matt Crouch | pick 23 in 2013 | key player from 2016

Typically the draftees played more than half the year with significant promise by their 2nd year on the list, and were contributing at close to their peak by their 3rd year on the list, latest by their 4th year.

In 2010 we finished 11th with 9 wins 13 losses percentage of 94. At that time, of the players who would lead us when we contended 6 years later, Walker Sloane Talia were all on the list already. If I recall we were pretty confident on Walker Sloane and didn't know much about Talia because he hadn't played. We had Dangerfield, Davis, Gunston, and Tippett on our list at that time too.

We are at the same point this year. This is the 4th year since we were genuine contenders. Do we think we have young players as good as Walker Sloane Talia (and Dangerfield Davis Gunston Tippett) right now?

If yes, then we might be only 5 years away from a sustained top 4 tilt, assuming we don't lose half of the most promising ones this time around.

If no, then we are further away.
 
Alwaysacrow said:
Gees, I think you're jumping the gun a tad there.
Gallucci, agree fail.
Fogarty, TBC. Let's wait and see till the end of this year at least, he'll get his chance.
Jones, very worried about him, maybe fail.
McHenry, showing good signs, way too early to make a call yet.
MacAsey, also a worry but let's wait and see.
The rest can you please wait until they've played a game before you write them off?
Overall too early to say our current rebuild will fail or not.
2021 has shown some promising signs even against the Swans which we could've pinched had we kicked straight.
Wait and see.
Click to expand...
2020 aside as unknown, but as for your opinions about the rest, I think you've actually strengthened Bob's case
 
Bob Neil said:
I think it's encouraging that at the end of 2020 and now the first two rounds of 2021 we're (finally!) seeing some positive signs of a rebuild under Nicks that - whilst still underway - is starting to deliver some improvement.

However, sadly, I think this current rebuild will ultimately fail insofar as it won't deliver a premiership for the simple reason that our recent (past five years) drafting (esp. first rounders) will be shown to have been poor.

I think history shows that premierships are built on a nucleus of top talents acquired via the draft which are supported by various other mechanisms (FA, other trades, lower draft picks inc. rookies, non-footy backgrounds, etc.)...and that's even before you look at coaching, fitness, culture, etc.

You don't necessarily have to hit a home run on all of those areas but I think that if the core (i.e. drafting top picks) is hollow then the whole thing won't work. Have a look at our first round draft picks (per Wikipedia) from the past five years and tell me if I'm wrong...

2016: Gallucci (#15)
2017: Fogarty (#12)
2018: Jones (#9), McHenry (#16)
2019: McAsey (#6)
2020: Thilthorpe (#2), Pedlar (#11), Cook (#25)
Click to expand...
How are you including 2016 and 2017 as rebuild when we played in finals and a Grand Final the following year? Technically we were supposedly contending in 2018 and 2019 as well so this years is really our 2nd year of rebuild.
 
kulak said:
Comparing to the last rebuild aka renovation aka rejuvenation etc

Contenders in 2005-06
Falling off from 2007
False dawn in 2012
Contenders 2016-17

So it was about 10 years from the end of one period as contenders, to the start of the next.

Key players of 2016-17:

Taylor Walker | NSW scholarship in 2007 | key player from 2012
Rory Sloane | Pick 44 in 2008 | key player from 2012
Daniel Talia | pick 13 in 2009 | key player from 2012
Sam Jacobs | traded in 2010 | key player from 2011
Brodie Smith | pick 14 in 2010 | key player from 2012
Brad Crouch | mini draft in 2011 | key player from 2016 (would have been earlier but for injuries)
Rory Laird | rookie pick 5 in 2011 | key player from 2015
Tom Lynch | trade in 2011 | key player from 2015
Eddie Betts| free agent in 2013 | key player from 2014
Matt Crouch | pick 23 in 2013 | key player from 2016

Typically the draftees played more than half the year with significant promise by their 2nd year on the list, and were contributing at close to their peak by their 3rd year on the list, latest by their 4th year.

In 2010 we finished 11th with 9 wins 13 losses percentage of 94. At that time, of the players who would lead us when we contended 6 years later, Walker Sloane Talia were all on the list already. If I recall we were pretty confident on Walker Sloane and didn't know much about Talia because he hadn't played. We had Dangerfield, Davis, Gunston, and Tippett on our list at that time too.

We are at the same point this year. This is the 4th year since we were genuine contenders. Do we think we have young players as good as Walker Sloane Talia (and Dangerfield Davis Gunston Tippett) right now?

If yes, then we might be only 5 years away from a sustained top 4 tilt, assuming we don't lose half of the most promising ones this time around.

If no, then we are further away.
Click to expand...
I'm certain if we didn't loss Tippett and then Walker (who become our most important player after Tippett left) to an ACL early in the season we would have contended in 2013 and beyond.
 
I disagree. We're on a good trajectory at the moment, good to the point the last two weeks have started to convince me we're a year ahead of where I expected us to be.

The system and buy in is there, which is the biggest thing at the moment. It's also worth noting that 1st round picks (whilst the easiest way to obtain) aren't the be all and end all here. At the moment, I'd argue we've found 5 players to build around.

1) Sholl has already put together some big games and against quality opponents to boot so truly deserves the elite talent tag at the moment.
2) Schoenberg is building nicely into a potential AA contributor.
3) Butts has had a hot start to his career at key back.
4) Berry has shown flashes of class (that dummy sell and kick to Tex when Kelly got KO'ed against Geelong was a very nice player), and is going to be a monstrous defensive player. Probably is now (seeing he's number 1 in tackles per game for anyone who has played both).
5) Thilthorpe. Sure hasn't played a game yet, but he showed a fair bit in the trial games. This boy has it all as a key forward.

I'm not including Pedlar yet because I want to see a bit more, especially as this year is seemingly a "take it cautiously" year. Though he also impressed me greatly when I've seen him.

It's a good base, though of course, no guarantees that anyone pans out, and even an elite potential talent needs careful development.

40porpoise said:
I understand what you’re saying.

At this stage IMO the only young player that has multiple AA and superstar potential is Thilthorpe and Doedee.

Berry Pedlar and Scholl could become those players, but id say it’s more likely they’ll become solid to good players with a limited ceiling.

We really need a nucleus equivalent to Buddy, Roughead,Burgoyne, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli or Dusty, Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt, Lynch etc.
Click to expand...

I get you're wanting to be cautious, but you're talking about a kid who has already dominated two games in his first 10 (Carlton and Geelong). Sholl has that multiple AA/superstar potential. It's all about getting him there now. Especially if you're going to categorise Doedee as that.

I also wouldn't sleep on Berry on it either. He's already got one part of his game to an elite level (seeing his defense/pressure has been ridiculous), and has shown promising signs elsewhere.
 
Bob Neil said:
You don't necessarily have to hit a home run on all of those areas but I think that if the core (i.e. drafting top picks) is hollow then the whole thing won't work. Have a look at our first round draft picks (per Wikipedia) from the past five years and tell me if I'm wrong...

2016: Gallucci (#15)
2017: Fogarty (#12)
2018: Jones (#9), McHenry (#16)
2019: McAsey (#6)
2020: Thilthorpe (#2), Pedlar (#11), Cook (#25)
Click to expand...

I think there is a lot of merit to this.

we’ve hit bottom because the picks that Rendell oversaw have run out of gas. Hamish (who has had the draft capital, spare me the BS) just hasn’t replaced them

this list above shows how hard the rebuild will be. Not saying impossible, but it’s starting a long way back if you don’t hit with your high picks
 
jenny61_99 said:
how could ANYONE possibly know it will fail? Rebuilds aren’t set in stone, they are rolling, evolving entities that change as needs and requirements change.

IF this statement were true, then fu** it, let’s just scrap everyone and start again! See how ridiculous that is?
Click to expand...

there’s a fortune cookie somewhere missing your message

Most rebuilds fail, that’s the nature of them. So to blithely assume all is ok isn’t really up to snuff.

the club claimed last year that it was coming to the end of its rebuild, and that 2020 draft was the 3rd year of it


Perhaps next time engage with the topic and start to actually ‘talk footy’
 

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Sanders said:
I think there is a lot of merit to this.

we’ve hit bottom because the picks that Rendell oversaw have run out of gas. Hamish (who has had the draft capital, spare me the BS) just hasn’t replaced them

this list above shows how hard the rebuild will be. Not saying impossible, but it’s starting a long way back if you don’t hit with your high picks
Click to expand...

If we were a relatively well ran club over the last few years, sure, I could get behind this argument (would be akin to Sydney and Hawks falling down the ladder). However, considering how toxic we went, there are too much mental gymnastics (and way too much credit given to our previous staff) going on to make an argument on the talent well drying up as a (or the) cause for my taste.

It's clear we hit rock bottom as a response to how we managed those post GF years. After all even the collapse was rapid, going from top 4 at the 2019 bye (at a respectable 8-5) to 5-21 in our next season and a half (including a 16 loss streak, seeing we lost the last 3 in 2019 as well). Almost as if the clock struck midnight and we turned into a pumpkin. On top of other issues such as the players downing tools in 2019, having a review which lead to us sacking our GM, senior assistant and coach falling on his sword. Pretty much purging our list in the last two years. The bare bones set up in 2020 as well.

The start and end of why we collapsed to this point is from poor governance. Hamish and his record is one of the many victims of that. Though of course, he could have (and probably should have for preservation sakes, though that's with hindsight) always jumped ship prior. I wouldn't be upset with us moving him on, but it's certainly more a career that is solid but without luck then incompetent.
 
Bob Neil said:
FACT: All recent premiership teams bar one have had a strong core of high end draft picks that they developed. Without that you can't/won't win a premiership.
GENERALLY HELD OPINION: The Crows' drafting of high end picks has been poor in the past five years.
IPSO FACTO: The Crows in their current incarnation won't win a flag.

It's called logic. The statements are all very reasonable (far from ridiculous). If you can't or won't engage in reasoned debate then stay out of the thread.
Click to expand...
It's not too late for any of our first round draft picks to develop into very good players though. They all showed plenty prior to getting drafted and came to a club with poor development. Letting Stewart go has been like kicking ourselves in the balls.
 
40porpoise said:
I understand what you’re saying.

At this stage IMO the only young player that has multiple AA and superstar potential is Thilthorpe and Doedee.

Berry Pedlar and Scholl could become those players, but id say it’s more likely they’ll become solid to good players with a limited ceiling.

We really need a nucleus equivalent to Buddy, Roughead,Burgoyne, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli or Dusty, Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt, Lynch etc.
Click to expand...
I’d add Schoenberg to the list of potential AA players. I think he has good positioning and movement through and from stoppages and better skills that Pedlar.

I think he will slowly build to a very good midfielder.
 
OK, I'm going to try and apply some figures to this question. Long post alert.

Assumptions / Parameters:
- I'm going to look at the Hawthorn 2008 and Richmond 2017 Grand Final teams.
- Looking at 2024 for the Crows - if not a target premiership year, then at least starting to contend, if the rebuild works.
(Let's not forget that when Hawthorn won in 2008, it was widely regarded as being "early".)
- Assuming that from 2021 onwards our draftees will all be 18 in the draft year.
- Not that the Hawthorn / Richmond age profiles are the be-all and end-all, but perhaps a reasonable measuring stick.

Hawthorn 2008 / Richmond 2017:
<=22: 8 / 4
23-24: 4 / 6
25-26: 6 / 6
27-30: 3 / 6
31+: 1 / 0
(Shane Crawford was 34!)

Or

<=26: 18 / 16
27+: 4 / 6

Who, on our current list or draftees, will be in those age brackets in 2024?
(And looking at age only, not the positions covered.)

<=22: 6+:
Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Cook
Berry, Borlase, Newchurch
- Plus 2021-2023 draftees

We've got a good crop already on the list, but we need to nail the 2021/22 drafts in particular, to give us the best chance.

23-24: 11:
McAsey, Worrell, Schoenberg
O'Connor, Gollant, Jones
Hately, Hammill, McHenry
Murray, Sholl

We need maybe a 50% hit rate in this group.

25-26: 7:
Rowe, Fogarty, McPherson
Butts, Murphy, Hinge
Himmelberg

This group looks OK but perhaps a bit marginal?

27-30: 10
Keays, Milera, Doedee
Davis, Frampton, M Crouch
Kelly, McAdam, O'Brien
Strachan

I'm not convinced with this group. Hawthorn only had 3 in this age bracket, so maybe there's hope if we get more out of the younger brackets.

(Plus Laird 31, Seedsman 32, Brown 32, Smith 32, Talia 33)
(Oh, and Mackay 36 :p )

Overall? I think there's cause for cautious optimism about 2024 and beyond provided we do well in the 2021-2023 drafts.

Also, my "ratings" of the age groups (e.g. "we need a 50% hit rate") are probably biased towards thinking about A-grade players. But the reality is probably that we can get away with a few B to B+ players in those groups, premiership teams don't have to include 22 A-graders. Just looking over the Hawthorn and Richmond GF lists reminded me of that. And as we all know, the necessary final touch is coaching. If we can get that right, I think the current and future playing list will be good enough to contend.
 
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