Our Final Position on The Ladder

Swanee

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Thread starter #1
The WC Eagles defeat of the Blues this afternoon seems to cement the Eagles into 5th position for the time being, ahead of Sydney on 6th.

The fortunate thing about this is that the Blues are still only 2 games and % ahead of us in 4th position.

There is only 10 points (2 1/2 wins) separating these 4 teams on the ladder

The run home

Each of Sydney, WCE the Blues and Hawthorn have 1 bye remaining.

The WCE's are still to play only 3 teams in the 8, with only one team above them being the Cats, after the bye next week.

The Blues have to play 4 teams inside the 8, which includes the Pies and the Hawks above them.

The Hawks have to play 4 teams inside the 8, which includes only the Cats, above them.

The Swans only have to play 2 teams presently inside the 8, with only one above us, being the Cats.

Only 2 of these teams play each other in the run down to the finals, being the Blues and the Hawks.

Do you think we could still slot into 4th position?
 

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RW

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#3
I had a quick look at our draw, and to make the top four we would realistically have to go 8-1 for the rest of the season (I'm not going to even consider the possibility of beating Geelong over there). It's not impossible given that we play only teams below us, all of whom have got their own worries and are pretty much all as inconsistent as each other.

I did a quick analysis of our ladder position in Round 14 of each of the years we finished in the top 6. Encouragingly, in both 2005 and 2006 after Round 14 we had an almost identical record, 8-6 and 6th position, although in 2006 we had a better percentage (117% compared with 99% in 2005; our current percentage is 103%). However, in those years we were only 1 game off fourth, whereas now we are 2 games plus substantial percentage away from Carlton. (130.91%)

In 2005 in particular, we were actually a fairly mediocre team up until Round 14, and only hit our straps in the last third of the season. I don't think we actually beat a team above us until Round 15, when we beat the Cats at the SCG (who were then ranked 3rd).

However, in 2005 and 2006 we:

* benefited from a relatively good run with injuries, we had a far superior forward line led by Hall (then in Coleman Medal form) and O'Loughlin,
* a stronger backline (yes, Reg, Ted and co have been great, but back then we had Leo & B2 who had a proven ability to play on the 'gorillas'),
* most significantly (IMO) had players who were more familar with our game plan and were better able to control the tempo of games, something we have really struggled with this year when the opposition has gotten a run on.

The competition this year is also tougher (Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn all know what it takes to win finals and Grand Finals), whereas 2005-06 was a transition period shortly after the end of the Brisbane Lions era but before the emergence of Geelong as a force, and the competition was not as strong in those years.

In short, it's hard to see us breaking into the top 4 unless Carlton and/or Hawthorn fall over (which I don't think they will). West Coast have been more impressive than us but may still slip back slightly. We're just not there yet. We are still a pretty good team when we get our act together, but it takes more than that to finish in the top 4, and the internal and external factors suggest that this is unlikely.

However, our performance against Collingwood was really encouraging and I'm still excited about the rest of the season, I really enjoyed watching us play last night, and I hope we keep it up!! We just need to keep on improving and staying within striking distance of the top 4 because you never know when the window of opportunity will open up again.
 

Heeney2Franklin

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#4
I still think we are a team at the lower end of the top 8, we play GC in round 16 so that could be a % booster but you never know with the Swans lol.

We have 2 dangerous games in Round 20(Ess) and Round 21(Rich) who always run us close at the MCG chances are we might have a lapse and lose one of those.
 

ep2018

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#5
Sydney will finish 4th or 5th.

We will drop a few games come the end of the season, especially away to teams that will be fighting for a place in the top eight like Demons and Saints.
 
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#6
As long as we don't do anything stupid (See the appalling game against Melbourne last year), we should able to pull off a top 4 spot if we go 8-1.

There's always a chance.
 
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#9
Maybe im being to negative but part of me doesnt know if finishing top 4 would be good we would be cannon fodder.
I reckon we'll be cannon fodder too, but the bigot in me (See username) doesn't really give a damn. I'd rather the swans finish as high as they possibly can. Also think it will give the youth in our team experience and a taste for the big-time (Appearing in a prelim).

If we pull of a miracle and somehow get higher than 4th, I don't know about anyone else, but I'd looooove to be called 'Bradbury's' like Hawthorn were in 2008. I'd rub it in everyones faces. Oh the youtube videos I could make if that happened. :D

I've seen weirder stuff happen before (Adelaide Crows 1997-1998).

Brain says we'll finish 6th, but the heart says fourth.
 

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.Shotties.

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#12
Keep in mind, last season at the end of July, everyone was talking about how we were going to drop out of the 8 and be replaced by Melbourne. This isn't a "keep the faith!!" post, just keep in mind how unpredictable the end of the season can be.
 

legend166

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#13
Best (realistic) case:

@ Gold Coast - Win
Fremantle - Win
Bulldogs - Win
@ Essendon - Win
@ Richmond - Win
St Kilda - Win
@ Geelong - Loss
Brisbane - Win

If we make the necessary changes and play anywhere near our, we are a realistic chance of going 7-1 to finish the season. That will make our final record 14-7-1. Definite home final, maaaaybe even a top 4 depending on what happens with Carlton and Hawthorn.

Worse (realistic) case:

@ Gold Coast - Win
Fremantle - Win
Bulldogs - Loss
@ Essendon - Loss
@ Richmond - Loss
St Kilda - Win
@ Geelong - Loss
Brisbane - Win

Gives us a final record of 11-10-1.

Probably good enough to get into the 8 but not a home final.

For as inconsistent and as crap as we've played this year, we can still have an impact in the finals if the players (and coaches) pull their finger out. All those games are winnable, bar the Geelong game. We have a bye in round 19, meaning our players should be rested if we make the finals.

Absolute worst case is if we lose to Gold Coast and drop another one of those home games, either against St Kilda or the Bulldogs. We'll miss the finals then.
 

The King!

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#14
we arent going to win the premiership this year bar some unforseen miracle.
Ladder position can almost take care of itself i want to see the club continue to develop to a position to win its next flag. The biggest frustration when looking at our recent run v top 4 sides it that there have been sides come both in and out of the top 4, while we seemingly tread water.

I would be happy to miss the finals if i can see genuine future development in the club, and to be honest i am actually quite happy with that development over the last season and a half, especially compared to previous years.

We have had a few injury worries (what club hasnt) but we have seen some very promising youth come into the side, and some stay and play key roles in the side.

There is some tweaking i would like to see done, Id like more time put into players like TDL and Johnston just to continue the development.

I think if we keep going with this we are probably going to finish 6th at best and best case win one final, but that in itself will be a good achievement in the big scheme of things.

I just dont want 2005 to be the only flag i ever see.
 

Leg End

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#15
we arent going to win the premiership this year bar some unforseen miracle.
Ladder position can almost take care of itself i want to see the club continue to develop to a position to win its next flag. The biggest frustration when looking at our recent run v top 4 sides it that there have been sides come both in and out of the top 4, while we seemingly tread water.

I would be happy to miss the finals if i can see genuine future development in the club, and to be honest i am actually quite happy with that development over the last season and a half, especially compared to previous years.

We have had a few injury worries (what club hasnt) but we have seen some very promising youth come into the side, and some stay and play key roles in the side.

There is some tweaking i would like to see done, Id like more time put into players like TDL and Johnston just to continue the development.

I think if we keep going with this we are probably going to finish 6th at best and best case win one final, but that in itself will be a good achievement in the big scheme of things.

I just dont want 2005 to be the only flag i ever see.
I agree.
Swans in the future looks like this:
Forward - Reid, L.Johnston, White, ROK with TDL, McGlynn as pests.

Mids: Goodes, KJack, JBolton, Jennedy (poss Parker)
big boys: Mummy, Seaby, Pike

Back: Grundy, Mattner, Johnson, LRT, NSmith

Jetta included brings speed out wide.

that, to me, is a potentially lethal team - fast and tough.

In 2012, there will be no expectation of Braddy and CBolton returning. The boys will have their own structures in place.

Now, if this structure comes together in the next 2 months, then we will cause some serious damage in the finals.
 

S120

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#17
Yeh, we all knew it before but with the results of the past 2 days, the importance of winning this game has been amplified.

A loss and we will be sitting in 8th with the Dogs and Saints (and the Demons to a lesser extent) all hitting form. Our place in the 8 will genuinely be in question.

A win and we go right back to within a game of the top 4.
 

Ed_Gein

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#18
Resounding no from me. Lost too many games of late we should have won. Crows, Freo....
 

MF

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#20
Our games against Essendon, St Kilda and the dogs will decide our fate now.

I don't have a lot of faith in our side to win 2 of those 3.
 
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