Our First Pick - The Deficit

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Joao

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Just sticking this here so that I don't have to keep recalculating it, especially as it gets closer to the draft. Thought some of you may be interested.

The deficit is 265. We don't actually know what happens if it is pick 1 but that obviously isn't an issue anymore.

Original Pick (Pts) Pick after Deficit (Pts)
1 (3000) 2 (2735)
2 (2517) 3 (2252)
3 (2234) 5 (1969)
4 (2034) 6 (1769)
5 (1878) 8 (1613)
6 (1751) 9 (1486)
7 (1644) 11 (1379)
8 (1551) 12 (1286)
9 (1469) 14 (1204)
10 (1395) 15 (1130)
 

Fat Nyfe

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Looks like our most likely pick will be 9, 11 or 12 then.

I doubt we'll finish bottom four on current form, and unless we go on a great run to finish we'll probably end with a further 1-3 wins which will put us in line for one of those picks.
 

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Joao

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Sorry, quite uninformed here.
Does it really matters? Though the state games are suspended? So this year all teams will be drafting ‘blind’?
Victoria isn't playing and they do contribute ~60% of draftees so you would think so, but the stats say that approximately 50% of players rated top 15 in their 17th year will still be top 15 in their 18th year. So roughly 9 Victorians of which 4-5 will be lesser known. That means 10-11 of the top 15 ranked this season are probably where they would normally be. So it makes a difference but you are right in saying that it is probably the best year we could have the deficit applied.

It was more of an issue for us when it looked like we would have pick 1-3. Much less signficant with a pick in the 8-12 range.
 

Taylor

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Sorry, quite uninformed here.
Does it really matters? Though the state games are suspended? So this year all teams will be drafting ‘blind’?
It matters if the talent that is exposed, the WA talent, is rated higher than our pick allows us to select.

I fully expect us to take the best available remaining talent, but there aren't many top five WA players and our selection might mean we don't get the chance to pick one when there is.
 

Nothing

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You mean blame Bell and others for maintaining a shred of integrity. SOS was on the way out and wanted to wreak a bit of havoc in the process. He's a f.wit
Green was touted as top 3. GWS swapped picks to get ahead of everyone they could. As he continued to slide their play became even shrewder. If we rated him at all (and he was touted top 3) a bid at pick 7 would not have been screwing them, it would have been a shrewd bid to ensure we got a touted top 3 pick or GWS pay a fair price. Instead, we overpay (slightly - Henry was expected top 20 but not top 10) and GWS get an even better bargain.

It's not maintaining integrity, it's screwing yourself (AFL is not win/win, it's a zero sum game). We gave GWS a highly rated player cheaper than necessary and we over paid for our player.
 

Taylor

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Green was touted as top 3. GWS swapped picks to get ahead of everyone they could. As he continued to slide their play became even shrewder. If we rated him at all (and he was touted top 3) a bid at pick 7 would not have been screwing them, it would have been a shrewd bid to ensure we got a touted top 3 pick or GWS pay a fair price. Instead, we overpay (slightly - Henry was expected top 20 but not top 10) and GWS get an even better bargain.

It's not maintaining integrity, it's screwing yourself (AFL is not win/win, it's a zero sum game). We gave GWS a highly rated player cheaper than necessary and we over paid for our player.
Maybe they rated Hayden Young and Caleb Serong as the #2 and #3 players in the draft.

If so, then bidding for anyone and risking missing out on those two players would be a massive mistake.
 

theGav56

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Sorry, quite uninformed here.
Does it really matters? Though the state games are suspended? So this year all teams will be drafting ‘blind’?
It does matter.
The top draft options have exposed form and have more known about them. But the main point is that you have 3 less players to select from.
 

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freo_leo29

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Maybe they rated Hayden Young and Caleb Serong as the #2 and #3 players in the draft.

If so, then bidding for anyone and risking missing out on those two players would be a massive mistake.
There was no chance GWS were going to pass on Green

They loaded up on picks in the 30s and opened up list spots to make sure they could get him.

They wouldn't turn down a top 5 talent for 5 picks in the 30s
 

freo_leo29

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The proof is in the pudding for Carlton. Their pick will be a spot higher than last year and they gave up literally nothing for it (bar the small "risk" that we pass on Henry).

SOS may well be a flog (never met the guy) but it was 100% the right move.
Worst part about this is Blues poached our guy who we sent over to learn the live trading system in the NFL, then used it against us.
 

wayToGo_

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Who gives a sh*t. We got Serong (favourite for the Rising Star), Young (best kick in the draft) and Henry (arguably best skills in the draft).

I have zero patience for annoying people who whinge for the sake of whinging, and fail to look at the big picture.

edit - and we picked up a talent at pick #61! But yes lets fire our whole recruitment team because they left us with a deficit.
 

apuchar

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I also reckon one person on here thought of it and everyone is pretending they would have thought of it too I know that is Bell and co‘s job to think of all possible scenarios but ffs. It never crossed my mind.
 

Joao

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I also reckon one person on here thought of it and everyone is pretending they would have thought of it too I know that is Bell and co‘s job to think of all possible scenarios but ffs. It never crossed my mind.
Some of those people literally get paid to work this **** out. As far as I know, you don't. Not only that, it was reported in the media before the draft that Carlton liked Henry. It is not a long bow.
 

Nothing

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Maybe they rated Hayden Young and Caleb Serong as the #2 and #3 players in the draft.

If so, then bidding for anyone and risking missing out on those two players would be a massive mistake.
Hence the caveats in my post about if we rated him at all.

Who gives a sh*t. We got Serong (favourite for the Rising Star), Young (best kick in the draft) and Henry (arguably best skills in the draft).

I have zero patience for annoying people who whinge for the sake of whinging, and fail to look at the big picture.

edit - and we picked up a talent at pick #61! But yes lets fire our whole recruitment team because they left us with a deficit.
But we could have had all that and maintained a pick at least 3 and more likely 4 or 5 spots higher in the draft. All because they missed an opportunity. That incremental difference may be the difference in 3 years time.
If we want improvement, not getting stuck with an avoidable points deficit is a start.

Also quite amusing that your whinging about people whinging and failing to look at the big picture, when I'm talking about a big picture approach to the draft.
 

apuchar

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Some of those people literally get paid to work this **** out. As far as I know, you don't. Not only that, it was reported in the media before the draft that Carlton liked Henry. It is not a long bow.
We got ahead of the two before Henry. Credit where credit is due. Some people have a perfect world mentality. Best case scenario we get Henry without a deficit but close behind is we get two top class players before we pick up a little gun for shrapnel. Making sure we got Menaro (although a little expensive) should also pay off. We had a brilliant draft and all the couch geniuses on here can think about is us not bidding on a player we didn't want.
 

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