Our First Pick - The Deficit

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Patty_Moz

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Aug 8, 2011
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From memory someone did the sums and if we bid on Green we still ended up with a deficit of about 205?
I remember being really pi$$ed at the time but this is correct, the difference in points was 59.2pts. Which means this list:


Just sticking this here so that I don't have to keep recalculating it, especially as it gets closer to the draft. Thought some of you may be interested.

The deficit is 265. We don't actually know what happens if it is pick 1 but that obviously isn't an issue anymore.

Original Pick (Pts) Pick after Deficit (Pts)
1 (3000) 2 (2735)
2 (2517) 3 (2252)
3 (2234) 5 (1969)
4 (2034) 6 (1769)
5 (1878) 8 (1613)
6 (1751) 9 (1486)
7 (1644) 11 (1379)
8 (1551) 12 (1286)
9 (1469) 14 (1204)
10 (1395) 15 (1130)
Changes into (I think):
Original Pick (Pts) Pick after Deficit (Pts)
1 (3000) 2 (2795)
2 (2517) 3 (2312)
3 (2234) 5 (2029)
4 (2034) 6 (1829)
5 (1878) 7 (1673)
6 (1751) 9 (1546)
7 (1644) 10 (1439)
8 (1551) 11 (1346)
9 (1469) 13 (1264)
10 (1395) 14 (1190)

So slight improvements if we did bid. I’d say there’s a stronger argument for us having traded better for later draft points prior to the draft but honestly I’m at peace with what we ended up with.
 

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Johnny Dalmas

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Our recruitment team has already said they still would have picked Young if they had pick #3. And similarly rated Serong that high.
The club saying stuff like that is about creating the perception that the players selected were their favoured selections. Its just another variation of what you were talking about with the dont-bid-early-when-you-think-the-oppo-will-match tactic.

After all would you want the media to talk about how Freo really wanted Jackson, but had to settle for Young, everyone they talked about
Hayden.

The club may genuinely have rated Young, Serong, and Henry that high. Young and Serong, at least, look really good and the Henry hype is strong. But we don't know for sure by what is said in the media.
 

apuchar

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I'm sure Freo and all the clubs will learn from what happened but whether many clubs want to use that tactic simply as a spoiler technique I'm not sure. Carlton did at least want Henry at that pick.
 

Belnakor

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We picked four guns from four picks last year, its the sort of draft might set us up for a premiership down the track.

Couldn't give a stuff if it means falling from pick 8 to 12 or whatever if that's what it took to bring those guys in.
yup, people overrate picks.

If we needed to bid higher for Henry we would have - he was our man, we had invested guys like Walter's time developing him, getting him ready for AFL. The price whatever it was, we were willing to pay it.
 

raffrox

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I'm sure Freo and all the clubs will learn from what happened but whether many clubs want to use that tactic simply as a spoiler technique I'm not sure. Carlton did at least want Henry at that pick.
I agree with what you're saying but did Carlton want Henry? I remember reading that it was a stalling technique to buy time to make a trade.
 

Taylor

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Can I throw into the mix - aren't we the club that has bid the most number of times on NGA/Father Sons since the ability to do so came in? If so, can this be extended to an argument that if we thought they were worth it we would have bid etc.
I've run out of time at the moment but this is where I'm up to, counting backwards from last season:
This shouldn't be taken as absolute rock solid numbers either, I've probably missed one or two.

2019 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 8
Bids by:
Richmond x3
Carlton x2
Sydney, Essendon, North x1

2018 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 11
Bids by:
Adelaide, GWS x2
Melbourne, West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon, Hawthorn x1

2017 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 3
Bids by:
St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide x1

2016 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 9
Bids by:
Carlton, Sydney, North x2
Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond x1

2015 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 11
Bids by:
Richmond x3
Melbourne, Bulldogs x2
Gold Coast, Adelaide, North, Essendon x1

2014 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 9
Bids by:
North, Fremantle x2
Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond, Geelong x1

So 2014 to 2019 totals are:
Adelaide x5
Brisbane x1
Carlton x4
Collingwood x0
Essendon x4
Fremantle x3
Geelong x2
Gold Coast x1
GWS x2
Hawthorn x1
Melbourne x4
North x6
Port x1
Richmond x9
St Kilda x1
Swans x3
West Coast x1
Bulldogs x3

Richmond x9
North x6
Adelaide x5
Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne x4
Fremantle, Swans, Bulldogs x3
Geelong, GWS x2
Brisbane, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast x1
Collingwood x0
 

apuchar

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I agree with what you're saying but did Carlton want Henry? I remember reading that it was a stalling technique to buy time to make a trade.
It is the reason we pushed ourselves up the order because we believed Henry was going to be bid on before our original 2nd pick. We wanted two picks before the expected bid. We had to cobble something together to achieve that.
 

raffrox

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It is the reason we pushed ourselves up the order because we believed Henry was going to be bid on before our original 2nd pick. We wanted two picks before the expected bid. We had to cobble something together to achieve that.
I'm not disputing that only that Carlton themselves stated that it was all about buying more time for their trade.
 

apuchar

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I'm not disputing that only that Carlton themselves stated that it was all about buying more time for their trade.
Two bids in a row . Plus they didn't know predraft that they would need extra time and we knew that they intended to bid on him
 
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nurries

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Carlton wanted Serong. They bid on Henry and not Green because we got Caleb and Sos sold his soul to GWS previously.
 

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Paracleet

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Carlton wanted Serong. They bid on Henry and not Green because we got Caleb and Sos sold his soul to GWS previously.
They had a choice on who to bid on first and chose Henry knowing full well it would cause us issues it wouldn't cause GWS (who had the points). It didn't matter what order they used as both were always going to matched. Literally the only difference in outcome for all concerned (Carlton get 10 minutes, GWS get Green, we get Henry) was the deficit. It was definitely maliciousness.
 
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nurries

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They had a choice on who to bid on first and choose Henry knowing full well it would cause us issues it wouldn't cause GWS (who had the points). It didn't matter what order they used as both were always going to matched. Literally the only difference in outcome for all concerned (Carlton get 10 minutes, GWS get Green, we get Henry) was the deficit. It was definitely maliciousness.
Yep they were pissed we got their target.
 

Purple Suit

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They had a choice on who to bid on first and choose Henry knowing full well it would cause us issues it wouldn't cause GWS (who had the points). It didn't matter what order they used as both were always going to matched. Literally the only difference in outcome for all concerned (Carlton get 10 minutes, GWS get Green, we get Henry) was the deficit. It was definitely maliciousness.
Malicious at the time but will go down as common sense in 3 years when Henry is a better player than Green & who ever Carlton picked.
 

Ysaye

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I've run out of time at the moment but this is where I'm up to, counting backwards from last season:
This shouldn't be taken as absolute rock solid numbers either, I've probably missed one or two.

2019 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 8
Bids by:
Richmond x3
Carlton x2
Sydney, Essendon, North x1

2018 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 11
Bids by:
Adelaide, GWS x2
Melbourne, West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon, Hawthorn x1

2017 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 3
Bids by:
St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide x1

2016 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 9
Bids by:
Carlton, Sydney, North x2
Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond x1

2015 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 11
Bids by:
Richmond x3
Melbourne, Bulldogs x2
Gold Coast, Adelaide, North, Essendon x1

2014 - Total Academy and F/S selections: 9
Bids by:
North, Fremantle x2
Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond, Geelong x1

So 2014 to 2019 totals are:
Adelaide x5
Brisbane x1
Carlton x4
Collingwood x0
Essendon x4
Fremantle x3
Geelong x2
Gold Coast x1
GWS x2
Hawthorn x1
Melbourne x4
North x6
Port x1
Richmond x9
St Kilda x1
Swans x3
West Coast x1
Bulldogs x3

Richmond x9
North x6
Adelaide x5
Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne x4
Fremantle, Swans, Bulldogs x3
Geelong, GWS x2
Brisbane, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast x1
Collingwood x0
oh wow - thanks Taylor! Though it seems I was quite wrong.
 

thefreodockers

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If Freo rated Serong higher than Green it’s got to be obvious that you don’t take any risk of not getting Serong by bidding on Green.

Even with the hindsight to know Carlton bid on Henry first I wouldn’t do it.

Serongs a jet. If the club saw that potential (as it seems they did) you don’t fluff around over the risk of a few future points.

Can only hope the next draft haul is half as good for us and we’ll be set.
 

theGav56

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If Freo rated Serong higher than Green it’s got to be obvious that you don’t take any risk of not getting Serong by bidding on Green.

Even with the hindsight to know Carlton bid on Henry first I wouldn’t do it.

Serongs a jet. If the club saw that potential (as it seems they did) you don’t fluff around over the risk of a few future points.

Can only hope the next draft haul is half as good for us and we’ll be set.
We fluffed around taking Hasleby before Pavlich years ago because Richmond wanted midfielders and did not want KPPs. We fluffed around (perhaps) taking Brayshaw at 2 because North had a pick prior to 5 and seemed highly likely to take him. Nothing wrong with using strategy in the draft. I think Carlton’s moves were fine and beneficial for them. If you rate an academy or f/s player I definitely think you should bid.

The club clearly rated Serong and Young, but I suspect were (Pleasantly) surprised they were available. I also expect they were surprised the Henry bid came so early. They have looked like they have been damn happy a few times with who has fallen to our picks (Darcy, Ryan, Valente, Frederick).
 

thefreodockers

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The club did rate Young and Serong - but I guess the question is did they rate them both higher than Green? Possibly, and If so, they were spot on not bidding on Green, because why take that risk (of the bid) if you don’t want the result of it not being matched.
 

more_of_bito

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Carlton wanted Serong. They bid on Henry and not Green because we got Caleb and Sos sold his soul to GWS previously.
What if they wanted Henry and were keen to bid for him at their original pick before ours? Wasnt that the reason we traded ahead of them in the draft in the first place ? So we would have had only Henry and Serong?
 

Snuffaluphagus

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This is the trade for me that was just all kinds of disgusting. You normally have to pay between 20 - 50% premium in points to move up in the draft,

1598505272373.png


Adelaide are going to end up GAINING points to move up to 22. This was made worse given the fact Adelaide had like pick 40 or something at the time
1598505591203.png

There's a 140 points difference that wipes out over half the points deficit. Even the below shouldnt have been enough to make that trade
1598505645021.png
 

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freo_leo29

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I remember being really pi$$ed at the time but this is correct, the difference in points was 59.2pts. Which means this list:




Changes into (I think):
Original Pick (Pts) Pick after Deficit (Pts)
1 (3000) 2 (2795)
2 (2517) 3 (2312)
3 (2234) 5 (2029)
4 (2034) 6 (1829)
5 (1878) 7 (1673)
6 (1751) 9 (1546)
7 (1644) 10 (1439)
8 (1551) 11 (1346)
9 (1469) 13 (1264)
10 (1395) 14 (1190)

So slight improvements if we did bid. I’d say there’s a stronger argument for us having traded better for later draft points prior to the draft but honestly I’m at peace with what we ended up with.
This isn't quite accurate as Henry would be bid on a pick later as well as GWS picks would be removed from the draft pool (5 or 6 of them) pushing every single one of our picks up higher, our picks that we would have used to match would have had a higher value to match the Henry bid at 10.
 

Van_Dyke

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Eh, think it was brilliant drafting/recognition of talent, poor trading. You can easily criticise one area while lauding the other and things dont have to be all sunshine and rainbows so long as people frame in a context for actual discussion with some actual argument behind it.

Two SA team trades were horrendous (particularly the Adelaide one which wasnt live) and I would have liked us to show a bit of courage and bid on Green. GWS were always matching a bid.

Said it earlier though, excellent trading makes drafting easier, excellent drafting makes trading almost irrelevant
for sure those two trades really could/should have been better for us than they ended up being. I suspect we’ll end up with pick 6 or so which turns into pick 9, which could be the difference between grabbing someone like O’Driscoll with say a Bruhn. that said if the three of henry, Serong and young develop into what they’ve shown they could be it’ll be one hell of an outcome for the club (especially if you include Frederick as well)
 

Patty_Moz

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This isn't quite accurate as Henry would be bid on a pick later as well as GWS picks would be removed from the draft pool (5 or 6 of them) pushing every single one of our picks up higher, our picks that we would have used to match would have had a higher value to match the Henry bid at 10.
I’m definitely no expert on the topic but I’m pretty sure the points you mentioned would have no effect. The 59.2pts is the difference in Henry being big on at 10 instead of 9.
We used picks 52 & 55 to match the Henry bid. GWS used 41, 56, 59, 67 & 71. Our picks wouldn’t have changed spots as 41 would have been eliminated but 9 gets added into the draft so our picks that we matched with would have stayed the same. All the other picks are behind our picks so have no effect on our draft position.


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