Our First Pick - The Deficit - We have pick 10!

[Joao]

So if our pick becomes 12 after the deficit from pick 8, does that factor in the standalone pick 11 that gold coast kindly donated to geelong last year? Would that make it pick 13 before any bids coming through? I feel we can still get a really good player in that range and as nurries said the form we have shown recently is worth more than a pick or two either way.

Agree the form is more valuable, especially the further down the draft we go.

Not sure what happens. I would assume we slot in behind the PP hence losing another spot but it could got either way. Entirely depends on how the AFL apply the rules.

 

[Taylor]

Our pick would be removed, the rest slide up, then our pick is put back in at the pick at which the full point value of our pick meets it.

So the GC priority pick would become 10.

1551 - 265 lands us at pick #12

 

[ImperialPurple]

Its not a perfect market and clubs dont bid on f/s and NGA picks for a range of reasons. Most notably, clubs dont want to front up to their supporters and the media with their prized top 10 pick being "second prize" to the bloke you got outbid on. Nobody wants to think they got second best for any pick, particularly in Freo's situation of this being the draft to re-generate the list with an elite crop of youngsters. Its much cleaner for Freo to sell the story of getting all the blokes they wanted in the top 10, rather than the story being "Freo missed their man Green and had to settle".

Fwiw, I'm not sure I agree with the thought process but it exists and Twomey has said a number of times that it occurs - and its why the NGA players slide abit further, depending on the gumption of the clubs who have the picks to bid. I guess I'm not the list manager who has to front the media after the draft to explain how one of their prized picks of recent times is their second choice.

Or third in the case of Carlolton.

 

[mightymouse75]

Pick 12 is not too bad considering the players we have in the shed & the chances of getting western & Walker cheap.
Should still expect Liam to play good footy after a good pre season.

 

[Monument Hills]

Agreed, if winning these last few games helps us sign cerra, Andy, Serong and young on long term deals it will be well worth it.
We will still get a very decent player with pick 11/12. And I’m pretty sure there won’t be any FA compensation picks in the top 10 this year, maybe Daniher but who would offer him big long term bucks with his injury history? I saw somewhere here yesterday that crouch not going to get offered near enough for band 1 compo either.

yep and JLo seemed keen on outside run and wingers aren't picked that high (Isaac Smith 19, Brad Hill 33) so we should be able to get someone with speed and good disposal/footy smarts around our first pick.

 

[raffrox]

Pick 13 or is is when the sliders come in. Those players that we feel like it would have been good to draft but we didn't have a pick in the right spot anyway.

I'm really happy to have the challenge of not having a high draft pick because we are playing well.

 

[Dockeroo]

So if our pick becomes 12 after the deficit from pick 8, does that factor in the standalone pick 11 that gold coast kindly donated to geelong last year? Would that make it pick 13 before any bids coming through? I feel we can still get a really good player in that range and as nurries said the form we have shown recently is worth more than a pick or two either way.

The GC pick is irrelevant. We would move back 4 spots in the draft the minute the final siren goes on GF day and the season is over.
Priority picks, compensation picks, bids etc all come AFTER we move back.

 

[Paracleet]

yep and JLo seemed keen on outside run and wingers aren't picked that high (Isaac Smith 19, Brad Hill 33) so we should be able to get someone with speed and good disposal/footy smarts around our first pick.

Gaff: pick 4, Billings: Pick 3, McCluggage: Pick 3, Whitfield: Pick 1. Need I go on?

 

[heypenny]

The pick could become very valuable on draft day. The key thing is our pick doesn't move back until we get to our pick.

For example (if we have pick 8), and there's a good slider leading to that pick - we could do a deal with a club who's desperate to move up in the order. 2020 is probably not the year for top picks however there will certainly be value in rounds 2 and 3 (acknowledging there will also be duds).

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Pick 13 or is is when the sliders come in. Those players that we feel like it would have been good to draft but we didn't have a pick in the right spot anyway.

I'm really happy to have the challenge of not having a high draft pick because we are playing well.

I'm at the point where I am so happy with our list, I dont really care, we have a heap of elite young talent coming through. Think outside the top 5 its a crapshoot anyway. As much chance hitting something with 8-10 as you are with 11-20 this year.

Would much rather win this week and head into next year guns blazing

 

[hoopdaloop]

The pick could become very valuable on draft day. The key thing is our pick doesn't move back until we get to our pick.

For example (if we have pick 8), and there's a good slider leading to that pick - we could do a deal with a club who's desperate to move up in the order. 2020 is probably not the year for top picks however there will certainly be value in rounds 2 and 3 (acknowledging there will also be duds).

Unfortunately as Taylor and Dockeroo mentioned earlier in the thread, the pick moves back the second the final siren sounds on the last round of the year, so from that point forward the deficit is applied and we lose our spots

 

[nurries]

Unfortunately as Taylor and Dockeroo mentioned earlier in the thread, the pick moves back the second the final siren sounds on the last round of the year, so from that point forward the deficit is applied and we lose our spots

So in other words we can’t trade pick 8 out in the trade period as pick 8?

 

[ImperialPurple]

The GC pick is irrelevant. We would move back 4 spots in the draft the minute the final siren goes on GF day and the season is over.
Priority picks, compensation picks, bids etc all come AFTER we move back.

So if we’re sitting 11th at the end of the GF, which would nominally give us pick 8, we slide to 12, and any academy/FS picks before that doesn’t affect our points regardless of where that pick ends up (say 14 with bid matching etc). So even if we end up with pick 14, the points stay the same and don’t slide, pushing us further back. Is that right? Am I making sense?

 

[hoopdaloop]

So in other words we can’t trade pick 8 out in the trade period as pick 8?

Unfortunately that is correct. It becomes 12 (or whatever it might be) as soon the season is done

 

[theGav56]

I'm pretty disappointed that it seems highly likely O'Driscoll won't be available at our pick.

 

[CapitalA]

So if we’re sitting 11th at the end of the GF, which would nominally give us pick 8, we slide to 12, and any academy/FS picks before that doesn’t affect our points regardless of where that pick ends up (say 14 with bid matching etc). So even if we end up with pick 14, the points stay the same and don’t slide, pushing us further back. Is that right? Am I making sense?

Yeah i think that makes sense as the points have already been deducted before the bids come in

 

[nurries]

Unfortunately that is correct. It becomes 12 (or whatever it might be) as soon the season is done

Fair enough

 

[Dockeroo]

The points are deducted only once, the minute the season finishes.
If it didn’t, it would be extremely unfair as academy and compensation picks would push the pick back further before draft night, ensuring the relative penalty in terms of lost draft spots was greater than it should have been.

 

[freo_leo29]

Would have liked a top 10 pick but if there is any draft to have the deficit this is it, very compromised with barely any U18s footy going on.

We can pick up a slider at this pick, best available is a must, don't be reaching at this pick.

Our NGAs should be bid on comfortably after this pick too so that also isn't a problem.

 

[ImperialPurple]

Would have liked a top 10 pick but if there is any draft to have the deficit this is it, very compromised with barely any U18s footy going on.

We can pick up a slider at this pick, best available is a must, don't be reaching at this pick.

Our NGAs should be bid on comfortably after this pick too so that also isn't a problem.

I wouldn’t put it past Bell to get a few new feathers for his cap, and see the bag carrier pop a few collars and somehow see us walking away with a top 10 pick. And an upgrade on Melbourne’s second, and a third (Blakely perhaps) and a 4th rounder acquired by some mystical magic.
They’ll then trade the 3rd, next years 2nd and 3rd, and the 4th for multiple 3rd round picks for Walker and Western.
We’ll get a top 10 and a top 25 pick + our two NGA boys. We’ll gnash our teeth that we only have a first and 4th next year, while also peeing our pants at our magnificent draft haul.

But deep in our hearts we know Belly has room for many more feathers in that cap of his, and he and the bag carrier will do it all again next year.

Don’t bother bookmarking. It’s fate.

 

[Taylor]

Essendon might be interested in swapping our first and Blakely for their first. They can't trade their first outright and need midfield grunt, they would then get the mature body and a first round pick.

At the moment that would be:
#12 and Blakely for #6

 

[Dockeroo]

Essendon might be interested in swapping our first and Blakely for their first. They can't trade their first outright and need midfield grunt, they would then get the mature body and a first round pick.

At the moment that would be:
#12 and Blakely for #6

The federal police would be down at Cockburn arresting Belly for extortion if he managed to pull that deal off! We had to give up pick 28 last year to move from pick 10 to pick 8

 

[Taylor]

The federal police would be down at Cockburn arresting Belly for extortion if he managed to pull that deal off! We had to give up pick 28 last year to move from pick 10 to pick 8

I don't mind throwing in a 2021 third if need be. They need mature players, they haven't won a final for almost 16 years.

#12 and Blakely for #6 rates Connor at #37. If we throw in a third it puts him at #61.

I think it suits both parties.

 

[Dockeroo]

I don't mind throwing in a 2021 third if need be. They need mature players, they haven't won a final for almost 16 years.

#12 and Blakely for #6 rates Connor at #37. If we throw in a third it puts him at #61.

I think it suits both parties.

I get what you are saying about the points differential but history repeatedly shows that it doesn’t apply when it comes to trading up in the top 10. GWS handed over a first round pick to move from 6 to 4 last year.
If by some miracle that deal was on the table I’d bite the bombers hands off though

 

[Jezzitizle]

I don't mind throwing in a 2021 third if need be. They need mature players, they haven't won a final for almost 16 years.

#12 and Blakely for #6 rates Connor at #37. If we throw in a third it puts him at #61.

I think it suits both parties.

Essendon fans if that happened:


Freo fans:


Belly returning to Cockburn: