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Our first round pick

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Hellgood said:
Just on Garlett - he's a super talent no doubt. I do have some queries though after seeing him play a bit over the last couple of seasons. Last year in the WAFL colts I saw him and he absolutely dominated having something like 39 disposals, 4 goals, 12 inside 50's and god knows how many running bounces. He just did as he pleased as he was way too quick and agile for anyone to get near him. He doesn't like passing the ball off very much though much to the annoyance of a few Swans parents who I was sitting near and whilst his disposal around the ground looked classy he mucked up some simple shots on goal where he could have hit up a free teammate in the forward line.

His championship games last year were a bit flashy, but nevertheless for an underage player he always looked as though he was worrying the opposition sides defence. Played out the year mostly in the Swans league side and did reasonably well. Didn't start the year too well this year, being dropped from the AIS program, played a bit of league for Swans early. He was brilliant in the WA 18's v 21's game, simply unstoppable, roving the ball off the ruckman and dashing through/around packs taking a bounce and drilling it into the forwardline. At underage level it's really evident that he has poise and skill well above his peers. However I'm not sure if he ever has really had to deal with a tag in representative footy as the AFL and the representative bodies frown upon that preferring the games be free and open allowing players to show off their talents - obviously a huge advantage to Garlett. In the championships he showed that he is a genuine midfield prospect with terrific skills (see the goal he kicked on a windy day from the fence at Geelong). Though he didn't really dispel the general consensus that he doesn't have a defensive side to his game.

It's interesting to think about whether it's a good thing for young footballer to be selfish - does it show they have extreme confidence in their abilities, like all the champions in the AFL? Or does it show a lack of respect for his teammates? Or whether it's indicative of the way the championships are supposed to be played, as a meat market rather than a team orientated competition?

Off the field, I don't think theres really much to worry about with Garlett. Not that much different to plenty of recent draftees and isn't that much different to other members of the WA U18 side. It was interesting to hear that Garlett would like to go interstate for his footy career to move away from the negative influences in his neighbourhood, showing that he is pretty mature compared to a lot of draftees.

If Pearce goes, I think we make him priority number one. If not then we wathc and wait and whoever is the best available at our pick, we take.
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Thanks for the description. I read that the WA side was coached more to be a meat market than a team. I wouldn't be too worried about a player being a bit greedy especially when they were under more pressure than most to showcase their talent to recruiters. I just watched a youtube clip! He shows poise and skills on both sides. He took a strong contested mark, tackled and got his own ball. I liked that he thinks moving East would be good for his football career. He sounds like he knows where he is at! I like.
 

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on mayes i like he has been a talent all along, remember seeing his name for many years now. was smashing it in the under 16 national champs. every level he goes to just matches. has already been playing league. chris25 has talked about his pendlebury-like ability to make it look like he has time. footskills, pace, great marking ability, great field kick, kicks goals, seems to want to take games on can rack up clearances, tall and has a great build for a football player too. homegrown south aussie.
 
Whitfield, Toumpas and Grundy will all be gone before our pick.

Viney will go #3.

Bulldogs would probably pick up Mayes (best outside mid at their pick).

If Brisbane finishes below us they will probably take Shaw (best KPF).

That leaves us with at least one of Wines, O'Rourke and Garlett. Hoping for Wines but any of those three would be great.

Also wouldn't be too unhappy with Stringer.
 
Hot Saucerman said:
Whitfield, Toumpas and Grundy will all be gone before our pick.


Bulldogs would probably pick up Mayes (best outside mid at their pick)..
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noooo we need Mayes..theres no way the Bulldogs should have a pick before us..there taking tanking to a new level.
 
Im not convinced that Grundy will go to GWS at all. Theyve already got Giles, Phillips, Downie and Bruce as predominant rucks. Gold Coast have Smith, Gorringe, Hickey, Nicholls so they may pass on him for a midfielder. Melbourne is a possibility but they might have to pick Viney. Dogs are a chance but they already have Minson, Cordy, Roughead, Campbell.

Its possible, though unlikely that he will fall to us. A man can dream though.

Whats the story on Stringer? Everyone was all over him last year as probably #1, now he looks like a slider. Whats his story?
 
ploppy said:
noooo we need Mayes..theres no way the Bulldogs should have a pick before us..there taking tanking to a new level.
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I think it will pan out this way:

GWS Whittfield
GC Viney - matched - Toumpas
MB Viney
MB Grundy
WB Gartlett
WB Mayes

That would leave us with a choice of Wines, Stringer, Kennedy or O'Rourke

The wildcard is the Mini Draft pick. GWS will want Grundy and or O'Meara. The reason they'd want O'Meara is his close friendship with Coniglio. Having both would be a dream come true as it would settle both players in Sydney. They may offer pick 1 and Mini Draft pick 1 for pick 2 and Coniglio (essentially Whittfield and Martin for O'Meara.).

But this probably wouldn't affect our choice.
 
The absolute top end of the draft IS the place to choose a ruck. Speculative first rounders and beyond are where things turn grey.
 
Yeah I am really against taking rucks with high picks.

Sure you get the odd superstar, but for every superstar taken with a first rounder there seems to be some guy who was either rookie drafted, or taken late, looked like nothing for 6 years then turned 24, got traded and suddenly became an effective AFL ruckman

Unless you have a Naitanui on your hands, why bother when you could arguably get just as good a player by either trading for a mature ager or using a rookie pick. If you look like you're getting close to a flag tilt but don't have a ruckman, there will seemingly always be one willing to be traded to you.

No drafting ruckmen in the first two rounds ever again plz. Best available genuine mids or genuine KPPs
 
They're rucks, they're speculative no matter where you pick them. I'd argue that the three best rucks in the game are Jacobs, Cox and Sandilands. All three were rookie picks. Meanwhile Matthew Kreuzer is stagnating and Josh Fraser can't get a game for GC.

Putting that aside, we have much higher priorities than the ruck division right now.
 

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Macca19 said:
Im not convinced that Grundy will go to GWS at all. Theyve already got Giles, Phillips, Downie and Bruce as predominant rucks. Gold Coast have Smith, Gorringe, Hickey, Nicholls so they may pass on him for a midfielder. Melbourne is a possibility but they might have to pick Viney. Dogs are a chance but they already have Minson, Cordy, Roughead, Campbell.

Its possible, though unlikely that he will fall to us. A man can dream though.

Whats the story on Stringer? Everyone was all over him last year as probably #1, now he looks like a slider. Whats his story?
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Melbourne have 2 picks. Ideally for them, Grundy and the best mid and Viney at 13.

Stringer broke his leg last year and despite kicking 9 from full forward in his return game, reports have been that he has struggled and looks lethargic. Although there is a risk factor with Toumpas and Gartlett too, Stringers risk factor is greater. Can't see WB or ME being in a position to take anything other than a small risk. Could we?

Primus was telling the boys earlier in the year, "high risk, high reward" and although this is in a different context, he may live by what he preaches.
 
The new substitute rule means it should be easier to draft a quality ruck lower in a draft, as fewer clubs are looking for them. It also means that fringe rucks are more eager to leave clubs to get job security. We just need to be patient and then swoop on the next Mummy, Griffin, Jacobs... or Renouf.
 
Waspy79 said:
The new substitute rule means it should be easier to draft a quality ruck lower in a draft, as fewer clubs are looking for them. It also means that fringe rucks are more eager to leave clubs to get job security. We just need to be patient and then swoop on the next Mummy, Griffin, Jacobs... or Renouf.
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People seem to be forgetting that Grundy can play tall forward just about as well as anyone in the draft as well as being the standout ruckman. He would add something we dont have but desperately need in a genuine ruck who can take his turn up forward.

With Grundy in your side, you don't need 3 tall forwards. He plays third tall.
 
this one early pick a year is not going to get us anywhere..by the time we get enough good players the first ones will be retiring.. we need like 5 or 6 early picks in this draft to get us back up..is that anyway possible..
 
kaysee said:
Heya CR... our main problem has been getting and keeping our 2 main game breakers on the field... Robbie Gray and Hamish Hartlett.

I'm a bit weary of risking a pick on Menzel and adding to our "stars who can't get on the park" list... however, in saying that just look at Joel Selwood's injury prone youth and his AFL output. Certainly complicates selections. :S
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Yep I tihnk you;ve just gotta risk it for the biscuit.

There's no point trying to predict the injury futures of specific players you;ve just got to go for whatever player looks like they;re the best at your pick. IMO if Stringer and Menzel weren't injured they'd just about be in the top few players in this drafts and thats not the kind of player I'm willing to let slip past, injury or no. It only takes one injury free year from a few of these special types of players and you could have a premiership.
 
shewho said:
Melbourne have 2 picks. Ideally for them, Grundy and the best mid and Viney at 13.

Stringer broke his leg last year and despite kicking 9 from full forward in his return game, reports have been that he has struggled and looks lethargic. Although there is a risk factor with Toumpas and Gartlett too, Stringers risk factor is greater. Can't see WB or ME being in a position to take anything other than a small risk. Could we?

Primus was telling the boys earlier in the year, "high risk, high reward" and although this is in a different context, he may live by what he preaches.
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There is a bit of a quirk in the rules Viney can either go pick 3 or Melbourne's second rounder, pick 26 i think.
 

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Chadwick Cornes said:
There is a bit of a quirk in the rules Viney can either go pick 3 or Melbourne's second rounder, pick 26 i think.
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My reading is that each club in reverse order decides whether to bid. If one does then Melbourne has to use "it's next pick". So if we bid on Viney, doesn't that mean they have to use 13? If compensation picks don't count, can you point me to where it says that?
 
gopower said:
They're rucks, they're speculative no matter where you pick them. I'd argue that the three best rucks in the game are Jacobs, Cox and Sandilands. All three were rookie picks. Meanwhile Matthew Kreuzer is stagnating and Josh Fraser can't get a game for GC.
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Yeah but for every Josh Fraser or Matt Kreuzer who dont become superstars (but do/did become good players) theres a Matthew Primus, Brendon Lade, Jeff White, Stephen King, Brad Ottens who were all taken as either pre draft picks or very early first rounders who were AA in the last 10 years. Meanwhile, for every Cox, Sandilands or Jacobs who becomes a star from a rookie pick, theres a Don Webb, Brad Dabrowski or Rowan Andrews who are never heard of again.
 
shewho said:
My reading is that each club in reverse order decides whether to bid. If one does then Melbourne has to use "it's next pick". So if we bid on Viney, doesn't that mean they have to use 13? If compensation picks don't count, can you point me to where it says that?
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The way i understand it is that he can't be taken using the compensation picks. So even if we bid on Viney because Melbourne have already used their first round pick they get to match our bid with their second round pick. I'm pretty confident thats correct, i'll try and find some facts and post them if i do.
 
Macca19 said:
Yeah but for every Josh Fraser or Matt Kreuzer who dont become superstars (but do/did become good players) theres a Matthew Primus, Brendon Lade, Jeff White, Stephen King, Brad Ottens who were all taken as either pre draft picks or very early first rounders who were AA in the last 10 years. Meanwhile, for every Cox, Sandilands or Jacobs who becomes a star from a rookie pick, theres a Don Webb, Brad Dabrowski or Rowan Andrews who are never heard of again.
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Obviously this is highly subjective, but let's have a look at this.

These are the guys who I would say either are or were elite midfielders in the competition, excluding Ablett, Watson and Josh Kennedy as F/S picks:
Scott Thompson (pick 16)
Simon Black (pick 31)
Chris Judd (pick 3)
Marc Murphy (pick 1)
Scott Pendlebury (pick 5)
Dane Swan (pick 56)
Jimmy Bartel (pick 8)
Joel Corey (pick 8)
Joel Selwood (pick 7)
Luke Hodge (pick 1)
Sam Mitchell (pick 35)
Brent Harvey (pick 46)
Trent Cotchin (pick 2)
Brett Deledio (pick 1)
Nick Dal Santo (pick 13)
Brendon Goddard (pick 1)
Lenny Hayes (pick 11)
Adam Goodes (pick 43)
Daniel Kerr (pick 18)
Ryan Griffen (pick 3)
Adam Cooney (pick 1)
Matthew Boyd (rookie draft)

The vast majority of them are first rounders. Most of the 30+ picks are older players from when drafting was a far less exact science than it is now. Only one rookie drafted player.

Now let's do the same for key forwards, excluding Walker who was an NSW Scholarship player and Brown & Cloke who were F/S picks:
Pavlich (pick 4)
Franklin (pick 5)
Roughead (pick 2)
Petrie (pick 23)
Clark (pick 9)
Schulz (pick 12)
J. Riewoldt (pick 13)
N. Riewoldt (pick 1)
Josh Kennedy (pick 4)

All but one of them are first rounders. All but 3 of them are top 10 picks. None were taken any later than pick 23.

Now let's do it for ruckmen:
Jacobs (rookie pick)
Leuenberger (pick 4)
Ryder (pick 7)
Sandilands (rookie pick)
Jamar (rookie pick)
Goldstein (pick 37)
Maric (pick 40)
Mumford (rookie pick)
Cox (rookie pick)
Naitanui (pick 2)

Only 3 out of the 10 are first rounders. Half of them are rookie picks, which means there are more elite rookie rucks in the AFL than first round pick rucks.

Midfielders show a clear bias towards higher picks, the forwards show an even clearer bias towards higher picks. The rucks show no bias at all. If anything, it goes the other way. Considering that and considering that we need another elite mid or a key forward far more than we need a ruckman, if Grundy slides to us then I hope he keeps right on sliding.
 

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